Mafia: What a time to be alive!

[ixt]

if either of u r village dont say i didnt warn u. i have less a care for this game so leaving it at that

[WillBy]

well if im out willby and voth will look EPICLY like scum hahaha up to village if they want my x-shot ability or not

Vanilla townie claim with an x-shot means you're not a vanilla townie.

And a refusal to hard claim anything doesn't do anyone any good. If you are town, the you've painted a target on your back by saying you have an ability. You also havent given us any reason to believe your claim: no number of shots, no specific ability, nothing to go off. Cap that off with the worst defense: "you're going to regret this" and I'm feeling pretty confident in my vote

[Soilderz]

Meh, Ixt was townie last mafia game and he played very similarly to how he is playing now. Kinda trying to sacrifice himself and very emotional. Leaning towards town for him even tho I dont like the play style.

I agree with Exalt. Leaning towards missa and rodney for now really. We have at least 24 hours still which seems fine by me.

[WillBy]

Meh, Ixt was townie last mafia game and he played very similarly to how he is playing now. Kinda trying to sacrifice himself and very emotional. Leaning towards town for him even tho I dont like the play style.

I agree with Exalt. Leaning towards missa and rodney for now really. We have at least 24 hours still which seems fine by me.

2 data points is not enough to extrapolate based on behavior.

[the_paul]

I'm leaving my vote on midoent because I don't want to see anyone get lynched today. Basic math will tell you the odds of a day 1 lynch being town are greater than the shot in the dark getting anyone anti-town. Going off the math, unless somebody does something stupid or remains inactive, I'll be pushing for a tie and no day 1 lynch. Hopefully our power roles make this worthwhile.

I haven't played a mafia game on here for years, so if I've ever played with Exalt I don't remember. A day 1 list is about as scummy as it gets, but in his defense he did say it was a worthless list. Interesting how quickly Will backed Exalt based off a meaningless list (unless I'm misreading his post, the wording on it is confusing to me). Going to be something to keep an eye on if they continue this. I have no idea who ixt is, but yeah trying to drum up a townie alliance on day 1 screams scummy as well.

In before this post makes me scum.

[Exalt]

I'm leaving my vote on midoent because I don't want to see anyone get lynched today. Basic math will tell you the odds of a day 1 lynch being town are greater than the shot in the dark getting anyone anti-town. Going off the math, unless somebody does something stupid or remains inactive, I'll be pushing for a tie and no day 1 lynch. Hopefully our power roles make this worthwhile.

I haven't played a mafia game on here for years, so if I've ever played with Exalt I don't remember. A day 1 list is about as scummy as it gets, but in his defense he did say it was a worthless list. Interesting how quickly Will backed Exalt based off a meaningless list (unless I'm misreading his post, the wording on it is confusing to me). Going to be something to keep an eye on if they continue this. I have no idea who ixt is, but yeah trying to drum up a townie alliance on day 1 screams scummy as well.

In before this post makes me scum.

I don't find your reasoning scummy, but I disagree with it in terms of the Day 1 No Lynch idea. It's fundamentally the wrong way to play imo for a variety of reasons. I already posted previously about my some of them, but since you used basic math as yours, I will show you how your math is wrong.

Let's pretend its a 9 person game with 7 town, 2 scum. Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but mislynch someone everyday after. Let's also assume scum NK successfully each night.

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, 2 scum + No Lynch = 0% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum (8 players left, divided by 2 scum = 25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum (6 players left, divided by 2 scum = 33% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 33%.

Now let's say town lynch Day 1 instead:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, divided by 2 scum = 22% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum (7 players left, divided by 2 scum = 28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum (5 players left, divided by 2 scum = 40% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 40%.


As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone Day 1.

Other reasons why No Lynching is always bad outside of a Mislynch & Lose scenario:

1. Lynching can kill scum. Scum kills do not kill scum. More lynching = more scum deaths. Not lynching = less scum deaths.

2. If you don't lynch someone Day 1, you cannot analyze the wagons Day 2. Wagons/Lynches and where people vote during a lynch give information necessary to scum hunting. No Lynches give zero information in that regard while giving scum a free kill at night. You essentially lose a townie for zero gain.

3. The only reason I can think of for anyone to want a Day 1 No Lynch, aside from their faulty math, is because they generally think something like "the Cop will eventually save us, and the game doesn't even start until like Day 3 when they find a guilty." Sure, that may happen, but you're placing blind trust on a random person who may or may not be good at being the Cop. Also, what if that Cop gets NK'd immediately Night 1 while you No Lynched and placed the entire game on the hopes that they save the town instead? Also, even with a mislynch, one less player for the Cop to potentially investigate means a higher % chance for them to correctly investigate scum.

4. Generally speaking, night play always favors scum. They always get to night kill, and they usually have great roles such as roleblocker, godfather, etc that help keep them safe from town night actions. Town also tends to have power roles that can hurt town, such as a dumb vigilante that kills only townies, insane/skitzo cops giving false positives, busdrivers that screw up results, millers, paranoid gun owners killing town PRs, etc. Scum almost never have PRs with drawbacks like that.

5. All town night actions are essentially completely blind, no different from Day 1 lynches except that there's no actual dialogue to help other townies make good decisions or reign in dumb townies from making bad ones.

6. Without a Day 1 lynch giving any information, and assuming a Town PR like the Cop doesn't claim, the Day 2 lynch after a Day 1 No Lynch is just as random and blind as a Day 1 lynch, with near zero differences except one less townie and fewer allowed mislynches before game over.

7. A Day 1 mislynch at the very least allows town to move past specific reads they had from the start of the game, because they are proven right or wrong based on what their Day 1 lynch flips. It allows the game to move past the initial phase of the game. A Day 1 No Lynch just makes town repeat the exact same arguments and exact same reads they had on Day 1 with little to no change, meaning the Day 2 lynch will likely be the same person who would've otherwise been lynched Day 1.

I'm sure I can think of more reasons, but that's my stance on the issue, and it's pretty strong. I'll always say a Day 1 No Lynch is a terrible move for town to make in nearly every situation. There is a time and a place for No Lynches, but it's almost never on Day 1.

[the_paul]

I notice that in your math you didn?t factor in the all too common panic role claim when someone has votes on them. I get your logic and I appreciate the thought and effort that you put into your post, I just generally and fundamentally disagree (unless someone is a shithead or inactive). I?ve just seen too many people panic when they have votes on them and roleclaim cop or something and basically end the game for us day 1.

I?m not really asking anyone to follow my lead, I?m just explaining the reasoning behind my votes, unless we need to get rid of a lurker and go from there.

That was a good post through Exalt, thanks for the explanation.

[the_paul]

Also, the more I think about it, you might be right. I don?t think I?ve ever played a game with 13 people before, which shortens the time line for victory considerably. I?m still leaning no lynch, but that?s a good point I hadn?t factored in.

[Missa]

The reason I didn't bold the votes was because I didn't realize I was supposed to until well later -- Brand new baby mafia player, here. I didn't even realize my posts would be counted as votes -- I thought we were trolling but now I have a much better understanding of how this all works.

On that note, after ixt's marvelous performance and appearing desperate to flop around.. I can really take all this behavior either way, as previously pointed out. Trolling or just panicking at this point, but why panic so badly when you have but one vote upon you? I don't know. Seems like he's trying TOO hard to look innocent now after slipping up, and Exalt is possibly trying to keep him in line? Hmmm.

unvote: willby
vote: ixt

[field]

I was gone all of yesterday, so my apologies for the long post. I read thread, jotted down some thoughts, and here they are:

unvote: WillBy

It was a joke vote, i.e. meaningless. But from the WillBy bandwagon, rodney's post and vote for WillBy make him top of my scum list.

He made vague comment about Exalt's thinking (nothing about the content of those thoughts though), and claimed some (again, vague) are acting suspicious. RoDNeY who is acting suspicious and why do you think so?

He is the third vote on WillBy, effectively making a train out of my vote and Missa's on WillBy by breaking the tie between WillBy and Undercunt. Reasoning is that WillBy was calling out lurkers. That was after WillBy said "rather push at lurkers if we aren't lynching." IMO, calling out lurkers to post and contribute has the objective of gathering information, which is a town move and a primary goal of town on day one as the uninformed majority. And Rodney thinks this is scummy?

The above + the fact that his post seems that it wants to contribute without really contributing anything make him scum in my eyes.

vote: rodney

Based on my vote count, this puts rodney in the lead.

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Not sure about zeebu but he made a good post and seems to be in the mindset of town. Town-leaning for now, would definitely ignore on day 1.

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Let's sum up @ixt's gameplay so far:
-publically asked cop to link up with him on day 1
-retaliatory vote on midoent and Exalt
-quickly unvotes midoent
-role claim town role with x-shot ability

Every single one of these is a scummy move, yet I think ixt is just being a new and is town. I say that with huge reservation, because his gameplay is very detrimental to our efforts.

Retaliatory votes are so scummy, but also a newbie mistake. All you are doing is confusing and distracting town. No one in their right mind would lynch Exalt at this point in the game, so what do you hope to gain by your vote? You do know that analyzing vote trends is one of the ways we catch scum, especially as the game goes on, right? What do you think we will learn when we come back in two or three phases and see your retaliatory nonsense votes littering the thread? You can question Exalt without voting for him. Make your vote mean something, especially so late after game started.

Furthermore, why did you role claim? There was barely any heat on you. All you did was give scum information they do not have, and you did that with one of the worst role claims possible:
vanilla townie with x-shot ability. Vanilla AND x-shot? Nigga please.

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I'm getting a scummy vibe from midoent. His back and forth with ixt, plus his random vote on tp seems like he wants to draw suspicion away from himself.

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Soilderz you shouldn't feel bad about voting people. It is your job as town and the main tool for town to gather information during the day. I would like to see more but maybe scum?

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Exalt is at top of my town list at the moment. So far he's been questioning people, gathering information, and laying out strategy. He's analyzing the game and contributing his thoughts about what others are doing. That's imo what a town should be doing. I agree with him that we should be lynching someone on day one. That is the only way to make any discussion on day one meaningful. The only scummy play from Exalt is him discussing PR targets during night (we should not be giving this information to scum), but putting this comment in the wider context it becomes clear that he was just trying to help.

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Voth called out ixt for scummy behavior, but am unsure what to make of it. Pro-town for now as I wait to hear more.

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I'm leaning towards the_paul being town, even though I disagree with his no lynch strategy. His reasoning is not bad. There is a chance we either lynch town PR, or someone will rapidly roleclaim like ixt has already done. Both of which do nothing but help scum. Although we always learn something from a lynch.

No read due to lack of content:
Undercut, Missa, BIET

[Exalt]

i am vanilla townie but with an x-shot ability that i wont reveal until i find someone who i can trust

This doesn't make any sense. If you are a vanilla townie, that means you have no abilities. If you have an x-shot ability, it means you are some other type of role name besides vanilla. Are you making it up, or are you actually saying that your role pm says something like 'You're a vanilla townie with an x-shot ability'?

Seems like he's trying TOO hard to look innocent now after slipping up, and Exalt is possibly trying to keep him in line? Hmmm.

When you say I'm coaching ixt, are you implying that I'm his scum buddy? That's an interesting theory you have there. Care to elaborate?

If I am his scum buddy, why would I coach him in this thread, rather than in PMs/Scum chat? Also, why would I acknowledge my scum buddy in public at all, when I could instead ignore him and let town mislynch some random townie instead? For instance, do you have anything to say about Rodney? What do you think of his vote on Willby?



Side note:

Since nobody else wants to vote Missa right now (Soilderz is the only other player to even mention her so far), I'll go with my other main suspect Rodney. Undercut is still iffy for me too, but only if Missa is scum. I also want to see where he votes with the 3-way tie I'm about to create.

UNVOTE: Missa
VOTE: Rodney

So I think this is correct now:

Vote Count:
WillBy - 3 (field, Rodney, midoent)
ixt - 3 (Voth, Willby, Missa)
Rodney - 3 (Soilderz, Zeebu, Exalt)
midoent - 1 (the_paul)
Exalt - 1 (ixt)
field - 1 (BIET)

Missing votes from:
Undercut


I'm suspect of ixt, but not enough to vote him, especially with Missa on that wagon. It's highly doubtful they're both scum, so I'm sticking to my original hunches.

[field]

on my vote count, this puts rodney in the lead.

Ignore this, I hadn't seen Missa's vote before hitting post reply.

Rodney and ixt are tied at 3.

[Exalt]

Ninja'd by field... I think this is right then:

Vote Count:
Rodney - 4 (Soilderz, Zeebu, field, Exalt)
ixt - 3 (Voth, Willby, Missa)
WillBy - 2 (Rodney, midoent)
midoent - 1 (the_paul)
Exalt - 1 (ixt)
field - 1 (BIET)

Missing votes from:
Undercut

[field]

So it looks like I did break tie to lead a Rodney lynch after all. (Based on Exalt's latest vote change).

[ixt]

I am a vanilla townie but DO have an ability, yes. Fine, with that long page of percentage analysis ill give u the benefit of the doubt. vote willby seems there are bandwagoners forming hehehe