TSL Mid-Season Review

[ogron]

TSL Mid-Season Review

TSLD





Iron Survivor has taken a firm grip over TSLD, leading all players with 629$, despite skipping the first thirteen games of the season. His insane 70% winrate and +173 plus-minus leads all players, as does his 13.2-7.4 averages among players with over 10 games played.

Posting scores of 16-3, 19-9, 20-7, 17-7, 15-3, 15-5, 17-5, 16-7, 18-5, 17-6, and 25-10 have made his position at the top almost unassailable.

Ogron sits alone in second with 554$, leading the league in kills with 542, posting a respectable 11.3-8.8 average and +119, while winning 58% of his games. Given his past performances, I think there's a 50/50 chance of him hitting 600$, as replacing his bottom 10 games (out of his top 20) with 29$ games would put him at around 598$.

In third Attacks continues his impressive play, as the final member of the 500-Club, with 511$ in value, sporting a sturdy 11.9-8.7 average, despite a cursed 30% winrate that sees his teammates flee arenas. He had perhaps one of the most insane games on a losing side this season, posting an incredible 24-10 in a loss. Wowza!

Geio has mained a spectacular 13.4 KPG, and +126, despite only winning 48% of his games, and rests in 4th with 494$. Perhaps the greatest slayer of scrubs in the history of the game, his patient, methodical, and safe play poaching the opponents' weakest members has yielded terrific dividends, posting some incredible scores, including the highest-value single game of TSLD, a 47$ tsunami where he managed a 23-6 against the likes of legends such as Cyrus, Doughnut, skullspace, and Steadman.

Rounding out the Top 5 is Mythril with 489$, notching superb 12.4-8.4 averages alongside +103 and a superior 62% winrate, the second-highest among qualified pilots in the upper ranks. What do you get the man who already has the Triple Crown of Warbirding (TWLD, TWDT-D, TWEL-D)? A TSLD All-Star medal!

There is a steep dropoff after the initial five, with Zidane creeping into the #6 spot with some impressive performances of late, despite limited rushing/dodging abilities, as his mid-range aim overpowers weaker opponents by winning trades. Trasher finds himself in 7th, as the wily veteran has parlayed his good but not great warbirding abilities over the field, while Kentaro's early season push seemed to have come to a complete halt -- I suspect his computer has finally died. Kess led the league after the first week with some fantastic scores, but has come back down to earth, although he remains a threat down the stretch to nab one of the final spots.

Racka is making a strong mid-season push, with a KPG-DPG directly in line with the Top 5 players, as his 12-4-7.4 and +81 (in only 16 games!) screams elite, as does his insane 75% winrate. While we can expect some regression there, he is definitely bound for the 525$-625$ range by seasons end the way he's playing.

Fears of middling players simply playing every game and overpowering the system with random "home runs" have proved unfounded, with players like Geio and Racka reaching the Top 10 with only 23 and 16 games, respectively. Meanwhile, everyday warriors like Jessup and Henry Saari have piled on the games played (35 and 34, respectively) without breaking the 305$ mark.

I expect 480$ to 520$ to be entry range of cracking the Top 10 and becoming a TSLD All-Star by season's end, and don't think any of those players will hit 400$.

Skyforger, mcvicar, and not u round out the highest valued players, falling in the 350$ range, posting respectable numbers and proving to be solid teammates with good win rates. Can they hold off lower-ranked but surging warbirds to claim one of the final spots in the Finals?





In the sub-300$ tier, we find a wide range of players, from untalented warbirding mediocrities such as Wiibimbo and Jessup who lack the talent to hit 400$ to All-Star caliber studs like Vys, nowon, and Dreamwin who have about half of their required games to reach the top echelons.

nowon in particular has looked fantastic, carrying a stellar 13.4-7.0 average and a 78% winrate, while vys has also been strong with some stirring outings and good numbers. Dreamwin has shown he can really do damage with no resolution limits against uneven competition, and could also make a push.

Beyond them are three or four players who could potentially be dangerous should they pick up the slack in the second-half of the season.

Ricko could potentially increase his showrate and qualify, and certainly has the ability given his excellent TWDT-D season culminating in a championship. Best showed flashes of greatness, but seems unlikely to play enough games. Cres doesn't care enough to qualify.

Ease has looked very good despite his inactivity and low game count. He is very likely to make a late-season push and play enough games to become an All-Star in multiple leagues.

My money is on Ease, nowon, and Vys to emerge from this group and push into the 500$+ range and reach the Finals.

[ogron]

TSLJ





Zidane could slip into a coma (something I'm sure many in the zone would welcome) and still finish #1 in TSLJ. That is how utterly dominant he has been.

He sits atop the leaderboard with a stunning 680$, nearly 200$ ahead of 2nd place. He's averaging an obscene 14.6-7.3 average -- better than 2:1 KDA -- and a staggering +257 plus-minus. Oh yeah, and he currently has a 74% winrate.

A TWDT-J title two months ago did little to stem his desire for more hardware in his trophy case, as he continues to put scores of 16-7, 15-6, 16-7, 18-6, 16-6, 17-4, 16-8, 17-6, 19-9, 20-3, 18-3, 19-6, 20-8, and 24-9.

Trasher continues to beast TSL across all three leagues, holding the #2 spot in jav with a +116 and 65% winrate to go with his impressive 10.8-7.1 average, good for 487$ value.

At #3 we have 24, quickly rising through the ranks and just hitting his 20 games played the other day, bearing down on 2nd place with a sublime 12.9-8.5 average and +102. I expect 24 to secure the #2 by season's end, but to fall short of the 600$ mark by a few dollars, finishing in the 570$ to 590$ range. He currently sits at 469$ and I don't believe has any realistic prospects of challenging Zidane's position (I fully expect Zid to hit 700$ -- an almost unthinkable feat in warbird or javelin).

Kess finds himself in 4th, with 449$, with an impressive 11.6 KPG and +85, although a sub-par 39% win-rate -- perhaps artificially deflated by going toe-to-toe with Zidane so often. He should be able to hit well over 500$ and clinch a well-deserved spot in the Finals.

Iron Survivor had had a strong showing javelin as well, taking the #5 seed with good play and a 10.5 KPG, good for 445$. The #4-7 seeds are tightly bunched together, with only 7 dollars separating them. Geio is 6th with 444$ and an impressive 10.8 KPG and +84 alongside a good winrate, while Ogron falls to #7 with 442$ and a 9.5 KPG, but only +12 despite a ton of games, which isn't great. I expect him to continue to fall as better javelins rise.

There is almost a 100$ dropoff after that, and I don't expect many of these players to qualify for the Finals, with Jessup taking up #8 with only 350$ and a paltry 7.6-7.7 average -- expect him to fall out of the Top 10 sooner rather than later. A negative plus-minus, and inability to hit 400$ over 30+ games is not a good sign.

Hellkite has much more promising vitals, with a 11.0-8.7 average and +46, and I believe he will rise higher given he's only played 20 games and already has 345$ at #9.

mcvicar rounds out the Top 10, with 336$ and an 8.4 KPG, Look for players like him and Ogron to cling onto those final spots for dear life as veteran javelins climb the standings.

Skyforger at #11, despite some good play, doesn't appear to have enough firepower to reach the Finals, while Steadman appears to have quit the game. temujin's 12.8 KPG and past success shows he is very likely to qualify as a TSLJ All-Star, while Omega Red and Afghan probably fall into the same boat as Skyforger.





In the lower echelons, Mythril and Cres have veteran blood coursing through their veins, but have not strung together enough convincing outings to make me believe they're a threat to the current leaders in jav. Ditto Rab and Major Crisis. vys has too few games.

Tiny, despite a healthy 13 games played, has looked like a shell of his former self, and posted negative averages of 8.8-9.5. I don't see a reversal of fortune in time. Mean Gene has looked better, but not enough games, and not enough brilliance.

DeadSorcerer, on the other hand, has looked great, but hasn't played nearly enough games. He could be a dark horse to make Finals. nowon has also looked solid with a 10.6 KPG, and could also be dangerous. Same goes for Kira.

My money, however is on Ease and Racka. Racka has both the activity and the talent to make the playoffs, sporting a 10.6 KDA over 14 games, while Ease has said, and I quote, "I'll only need 20 games to qualify for javs". Expect them both to make a late push for TSL All-Star spots.

[ogron]

TSLB





Spider

Spider might be the easiest ship to qualify for Finals across all of TSL. The field is incredibly weak, with Turban, Skatarius, squallFF8, JAMAL, Mega, Stayon, M_M God, Hulk, Cripple, Davy, Diakka not playing, and only 6 elite TWLB spiders currently active (Trasher, Ease, Kess, Spezza, Hellkite, and Dreamwin).

If you want to make TSL All-Stars, this is the category.

Henry Saari currently leads all spiders with 647$ value, and is likely a lock for the finals, as he has never had trouble putting up stats.

In second is Kess, with 639$ value, who has been his usual dominant self in spider.

afghan has put himself on the map, having a breakout season in ship 3, having a nice season and putting up good numbers, and it's great to see new spiders making a splash. He sits in third with 600$.

skyforger has also emerged as a solid option in spider, after coming to the fore as a top 6-Star option in TWDT-B and reaching the finals, and continues to produce in TSLB.

nowon is the best spider in TSLB, despite a very limited number of games, and could potentially push for the #1 spot, although he currently resides at #5.

GLYDE has also risen rapidly in spider, putting up some stirring performances at #6, while nosydawg has been a TWDT-B low-star staple for many years and is widely regarded as a good spider willing to both over and under. Trasher continues to decimate the opposition regardless of what ship you put him in, and should rise quickly as his spider games increase, as the TWLB champ shows no signs of slowing down. At #9 is Kentaro, whom I suspect has suffered another computer catastrophe, as he has disappeared from the league. Rounding out the Top 10 is Bumpa, who is a veteran spider of many moons (lag permitting.)

Cres and Holy Ship are knocking on the door of Finals, with 464$ and 426$ respectively, although I consider the real threats to be Hellkite, Dreamwin, and Ease down the stretch, as they are three of the six best spiders currently active in TSLB.

Terr

In terrier, Ogron leads the field with 788$, while Thix has firmly wrapped his grip around the #2 with 531$. Trasher has been terrific in terr as well, but sports a lower 357$ due to playing all three ships and spending less time in it.

Rab, Oder, and bellflowers have shown flashes, but it remains to be seen if they can make a real push for one of the two All-Star spots.

Cape has the talent and experience to challenge anyone in terr, but likely won't play enough games. Dreamwin has switched to spider as it is much easier to qualify for in a limited amount of games.

Shark

mcvicar and zidane have dominated the sharking field, with 776$ and 755$ values respectively. They should be locks for the Finals.

More interesting are the final two sharking spots, which I expected Porkjet and Mythril to nab. Instead, 24 has made a huge push the past two weeks, rocketing into the #3 seed with some very aggressive shark play that TSL rewards, notching 580$ value.

Omega Red's position in 4th with 388$ is tenuous at best, with Mythril hot on his heels with 354$ value, with Hellkite (311$), Major Crisis (259$) and Oder (251$) not far behind.

Hellkite may qualify for a spider spot ahead of shark, removing him from the Shark list, and I'm not sure Oder and Major are active enough to push for the Finals.

I think it will come down to 24, Mythril and Omega for the last two TSL All-Star spots. 24 seems to have realized that the sharking formula actively rewards aggressive play and Teks, and adapted his style to reap the rewards (Winning > Teks > Kills - TKs, in that order, is the best strategy). Mythril will have to do the same in order to qualify, as defensive excellence is not measurable, and therefore cannot be rewarded, while offense can.

Multi-Ship

There are a few good contenders for this category, should they not qualify in the Terr, Shark, or Spider categories for starting spots in the Finals.

While Hellkite currently leads this category with 667$, I expect him to qualify as a spider.

I expect this to be a race between bellflowers, Geio, and Oder. Oder is the best player out of the three, but plays the least. bell plays all three ships, and I think he is a lock for this category, meaning it will be a dogfight between Geio and Oder. Geio is more active, while Oder can play every ship.

[ogron]

With three full weeks left of play, there is still plenty of time to start and qualify, especially if you're a top-tier veteran. 12 game days with an average of 4 games per league comes out to around 45-50 more games, and while Value only technically counts your 20 best games, a more realistic target for pros is 27 games to knock out your poorest round and replace them with 20$+ games.

Good luck to everyone down the stretch!