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TWDT-B
Ruby
They are the only team guaranteed to be in the Finals game, and what an underdog they are. They pulled off a rather historic upset in the last game (they were 3-5 coming in against 6-1 Internet Predators) having lost 4 in a row at one point in the season. To their (and maybe my) credit, they showed up pretty much exactly the expected/optimal starting lineup I put for them in the preview last week. The only change was that I had Jethro Tull in as warbird, but I did list dald as an option in javelin if they wanted to go that route.
Here is that game:
I unfortunately did not witness last week's game, but well-played Ruby. (It seems Internet Predators had some lag/terrier issues just looking at the box score, however). Dald had an amazing game in javelin, so smart move Draft.Code:Result of Internet Predators vs. Ruby: 5:07 - 15:00 ,---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | TK | Points | FT | TeK | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Internet Predators / 284 | 424 | 13 | 29246 | 14 | 3 | -5112 | 8 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | Dead_Rain 27 | 36 | 0 | 3329 | 4 | 0 | -9314 | 0 | | Downfall 7 | 82 | 6 | 1861 | 1 | 0 | -951 | 0 | | FieryFire 56 | 49 | 0 | 3558 | 0 | 0 | 2157 | 0 | | JAMAL 62 | 48 | 0 | 5067 | 2 | 0 | 3844 | 0 | | M_M God 45 | 59 | 6 | 5083 | 1 | 3 | -85 | 0 | | Mikkiz 3 | 3 | 0 | 1431 | 0 | 0 | -1717 | 1 | | saetep 5 | 48 | 0 | 1056 | 3 | 0 | -42 | 0 | | Salu 22 | 47 | 1 | 3100 | 2 | 0 | -116 | 7 | | Spezza <TW> 57 | 52 | 0 | 4761 | 1 | 0 | 1112 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Ruby / 410 | 302 | 18 | 90455 | 15 | 13 | 110416 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | a2m 9 | 64 | 8 | 4659 | 2 | 0 | -3007 | 0 | | Anidalife 79 | 33 | 0 | 15113 | 0 | 2 | 21551 | 0 | | dald 83 | 29 | 7 | 17439 | 0 | 10 | 47064 | 0 | | Draft 20 | 3 | 0 | 6555 | 0 | 0 | 3308 | 0 | | Duel Pasta 15 | 64 | 3 | 4917 | 6 | 0 | -1334 | 0 | | shayde 69 | 42 | 0 | 12977 | 3 | 1 | 12203 | 0 | | Stayon 68 | 31 | 0 | 14284 | 3 | 0 | 15883 | 0 | | Suede 67 | 36 | 0 | 14511 | 1 | 0 | 14748 | 0 | `---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----' Ruby wins this game! MVP: dald!
Here is once again Ruby's expected starting lineups (with almost no alterations due to the success it had last week)
Ruby's expected starting lineup:
Terrier- Draft
Sharks- a2m, duel pasta/unabled
Special- dald(jav)/ Jethro Tull (wb)
Spiders- Shayde, Suede, Stayon, Anidalife/Valcrist/Dald/sCHOPe/Wheen
WOOT and Revenge
Here is the scorebox from last week's appealed WOOT vs. Revenge game:
and the match they had from earlier this year in Week 1:Code:Result of Revenge vs. Woot: 14:45 - 14:59 ,---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | TK | Points | FT | TeK | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Revenge / 600 | 591 | 10 | 91613 | 23 | 7 | 76195 | 5 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | Burnt 53 | 10 | 0 | 10703 | 1 | 2 | 6975 | 0 | | cripple 131 | 77 | 0 | 17612 | 1 | 1 | 30694 | 0 | | Dwopple 18 | 107 | 5 | 4390 | 2 | 0 | -2010 | 0 | | Jeenyuss 11 | 101 | 1 | 4095 | 8 | 0 | -651 | 1 | | Kill 100 | 86 | 0 | 14268 | 2 | 0 | 9673 | 0 | | Necromotic 92 | 85 | 4 | 14636 | 5 | 2 | 3852 | 4 | | Singer 94 | 50 | 0 | 12736 | 3 | 1 | 17743 | 0 | | vys 101 | 75 | 0 | 13173 | 1 | 1 | 9919 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Woot / 581 | 621 | 21 | 90026 | 23 | 10 | 69727 | 1 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | brookus 36 | 8 | 0 | 6831 | 1 | 0 | -3748 | 0 | | Da1andonly 85 | 75 | 11 | 14256 | 6 | 5 | 14746 | 0 | | Ease 121 | 80 | 0 | 16441 | 4 | 2 | 23609 | 0 | | Eelam 26 | 119 | 8 | 5899 | 2 | 0 | -4530 | 0 | | Kawrae 118 | 70 | 0 | 17442 | 2 | 0 | 26860 | 0 | | PUNK rock 95 | 61 | 0 | 12632 | 3 | 1 | 13996 | 0 | | Server 78 | 93 | 0 | 11146 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 1 | | Snugz 22 | 115 | 2 | 5379 | 5 | 2 | -1304 | 0 | `---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----' Woot wins this game!
As you can see, these are 2 of the 3 closest games from basing this season. Both teams showed up very good lines for Week 1, so there is not much difference between the talent levels in the 2 games (note: SquallFF8 is no longer on WOOT).Code:Result of Revenge vs. WOOT: 15:00 - 14:40 ,---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | TK | Points | FT | TeK | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Revenge / 582 | 625 | 18 | 94273 | 31 | 8 | 69867 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | Burnt 34 | 10 | 0 | 7702 | 1 | 0 | -15133 | 0 | | Dwopple 9 | 119 | 4 | 4667 | 11 | 2 | -1801 | 0 | | Jeenyuss 20 | 116 | 5 | 5774 | 14 | 1 | -2621 | 0 | | Kill 114 | 72 | 0 | 16407 | 1 | 1 | 24722 | 0 | | Necromotic 68 | 98 | 9 | 11659 | 1 | 2 | -4672 | 0 | | Singer 101 | 51 | 0 | 14532 | 1 | 0 | 20943 | 0 | | vys 108 | 80 | 0 | 16079 | 1 | 1 | 18117 | 0 | | Zung 128 | 79 | 0 | 17453 | 1 | 1 | 30312 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | WOOT / 607 | 589 | 7 | 90478 | 30 | 10 | 99762 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | brookus 33 | 8 | 0 | 6487 | 1 | 0 | -4195 | 0 | | Confluence 20 | 113 | 2 | 5188 | 7 | 0 | -1258 | 0 | | cuji 109 | 74 | 0 | 15965 | 2 | 0 | 21591 | 0 | | Da1andonly 87 | 76 | 1 | 12777 | 3 | 9 | 17593 | 0 | | Ease 110 | 77 | 0 | 15937 | 3 | 1 | 16242 | 0 | | Kawrae 122 | 61 | 0 | 17102 | 1 | 0 | 34162 | 0 | | PureOwnage 13 | 117 | 4 | 5092 | 12 | 0 | -2024 | 0 | | squallFF8 113 | 63 | 0 | 11930 | 1 | 0 | 17651 | 0 | `---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----' Revenge wins this game! MVP: Kawrae!
I don't think these expected starting lineups would change much for this game or the Finals:
WOOT expected starting lineup:
Terrier- Brookus/Kawrae/JeBu
Sharks- PureOwnage, eelam/cremation/snugz/Jrahen/Confluence
Special- Confluence/Da1andonly (Jav)
Spiders- Kawrae, Ease, PUNK rock, Server/Mikes/Jrahen/Redlights/Arobas+/Hero
Revenge expected starting lineup:
Terrier- Burnt
Sharks- Dwopple, Jeenyuss/Hercules/royst/cripple/vys
Special- Vys (wb)/Necromotic (jav)
Spiders- Cripple, Singer, Kill, Vys/Spaceship/Acidbomber/Ara/Zung/Royst
This appeals game can be treated as a Round 3 of a first 2 part series that is 1-1 and close in each game. It's really anybody's ballgame, but it will depend a lot on WOOT showing up its prime players. In other weeks (besides the ones shown), WOOT has not been able to always get its best basers to show up, whereas Revenge has generally been pretty good. For that fact, I give the slight edge to Revenge winning the appeal and playing Ruby (use that as motivation WOOT).
Just for fun, here are the scoreboxes for Ruby vs. WOOT and Ruby vs. Revenge.
Code:Result of Ruby vs. WOOT: 9:16 - 15:00 ,---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | TK | Points | FT | TeK | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Ruby / 450 | 482 | 5 | 56464 | 18 | 4 | 42609 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | a2m 79 | 61 | 0 | 9648 | 2 | 0 | 6360 | 0 | | beam 64 | 51 | 0 | 6496 | 1 | 0 | 9198 | 0 | | deck 80 | 68 | 0 | 10914 | 1 | 1 | 5653 | 0 | | Draft 31 | 9 | 0 | 5757 | 0 | 2 | -7390 | 0 | | Duel Pasta 7 | 94 | 0 | 3101 | 1 | 1 | -257 | 0 | | Exalt 64 | 63 | 0 | 6420 | 2 | 0 | 2899 | 0 | | shayde 119 | 40 | 0 | 11471 | 2 | 0 | 27337 | 0 | | Unabled 6 | 96 | 5 | 2657 | 9 | 0 | -1191 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | WOOT / 477 | 466 | 16 | 89735 | 18 | 9 | 83287 | 5 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | Add 81 | 54 | 0 | 13042 | 0 | 0 | 13198 | 0 | | Arobas+ 94 | 51 | 0 | 14993 | 3 | 0 | 21020 | 0 | | brookus 39 | 4 | 0 | 9131 | 1 | 0 | 16733 | 0 | | Confluence 22 | 2 | 1 | 4931 | 0 | 3 | 4727 | 0 | | Mikes 72 | 44 | 0 | 12380 | 1 | 1 | 11047 | 5 | | PureOwnage 16 | 101 | 0 | 5582 | 5 | 2 | -413 | 0 | | REDLIGHTS 68 | 51 | 7 | 12363 | 2 | 3 | 13930 | 0 | | Server 72 | 65 | 0 | 12807 | 0 | 0 | 6050 | 0 | | Snugz 13 | 94 | 8 | 4506 | 6 | 0 | -3005 | 0 | `---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----' WOOT wins this game! MVP: shayde!
Ruby was the first team to beat Revenge in basing this year but struggled against WOOT. All the teams had non-optimal lines in these games (especially Revenge's missing sharks), so its not the best prediction base for if they are able to show up better lines. At their best, I'd think Revenge would be the cream of this crop, but its awfully close (especially after Ruby's showing last week). This should be an exciting final in basing, and really any of these 3 teams could win it all.Code:Result of Revenge vs. Ruby: 10:56 - 15:00 ,---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | TK | Points | FT | TeK | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Revenge / 469 | 528 | 20 | 60411 | 15 | 9 | 29394 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | Ara 46 | 52 | 0 | 5578 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 0 | | Burnt 49 | 9 | 0 | 6029 | 1 | 3 | 5819 | 0 | | cripple 16 | 99 | 0 | 3694 | 7 | 0 | -186 | 0 | | Eeks 74 | 54 | 0 | 8080 | 0 | 1 | 6334 | 0 | | NECROMOTIC 74 | 77 | 15 | 9206 | 2 | 3 | 2651 | 0 | | Singer 79 | 49 | 0 | 9324 | 0 | 1 | 10375 | 0 | | Spaceship 76 | 68 | 0 | 9170 | 1 | 0 | 3972 | 0 | | Trasher 36 | 22 | 0 | 4540 | 1 | 0 | 2275 | 0 | | vys 19 | 98 | 5 | 4790 | 2 | 1 | -2102 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Ruby / 508 | 478 | 9 | 96569 | 15 | 9 | 94419 | 3 | +------------------------' | | | | | | | | | Anidalife 108 | 48 | 0 | 18543 | 2 | 0 | 32175 | 0 | | dald 73 | 50 | 5 | 13060 | 0 | 6 | 21087 | 0 | | DecK 63 | 68 | 0 | 10997 | 0 | 0 | 1535 | 0 | | Draft 29 | 9 | 0 | 7818 | 0 | 2 | -11224 | 0 | | Duel Pasta 13 | 91 | 2 | 4698 | 2 | 0 | -1028 | 0 | | sCHOPe 90 | 61 | 0 | 16705 | 0 | 1 | 17845 | 1 | | shayde 118 | 60 | 0 | 19027 | 5 | 0 | 35276 | 0 | | Unabled 14 | 91 | 2 | 5721 | 6 | 0 | -1247 | 2 | `---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+------+------+-----------+----' Ruby wins this game! MVP: shayde!
Last edited by Black Mage; 08-26-2009, 04:12 PM.Leave a comment:
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TWDT-J
Revenge
These stats truly reflect how dominating Revenge has been this season in Javelin. They are still undefeated (although they were finally challenged last week by WOOT), and so it would be tough to make them anything but a heavy favorite. Essentially every player that has played for them this year has put up at least a 1:1. Maketso and Aimbot's records are also essentially ludicrous, considering they have played a decent amount of games. Maketso is averaging roughly a 10-4 record for the year, and Aimbot is averaging a 12-8 (remarkable consistency since he has not gotten more than 14 kills in a game this year). Singer, Dawk and Cripple (latter 2 are 6*) have given Revenge excellent depth this season. You can't ask for more than a 1.29 K : D for your 6* players on the year, but of course the * value is meaningless now in the playoffs. It's pretty clear Burnt can make any line he wants out of these 8 players and probably get a win, and some combination of them has always shown up.Code:Javelin stats only, GP is games played this season with a posted scorebox (including playoffs) GP K : D Name 4 2.16 maketso 2 2.00 cripple 7 1.48 Aimbot 5 1.33 Singer 5 1.15 Dawk 1 1.00 vys 6 0.96 Hercules 3 0.95 Necromotic
Without Ease
Clearly, you can track Without Ease's resurgence and better play of late to Megaman89 playing games for them in javelin the last few weeks. Besides him, Without Ease has a bunch of solid players, but not great ones. Raples, struck, and Hypocrit have all been good and reliable this year in a decent number of games. I.D. has played better as the weeks have gone by, with a positive record over the last 4 weeks. Sauro and Golden_Aim would be the only other players I would consider adding this week.Code:Javelin stats only, GP is games played this season with a posted scorebox (including playoffs) GP K : D Name 3 1.53 megaman89 8 1.08 Raples 5 1.07 struck 2 1.07 Golden_Aim 2 1.05 Sauro 5 1.05 Hypocrit 7 0.89 i.d. 1 0.80 Caos 1 0.80 Stylez 3 0.59 kid 3 0.46 freddie 1 0.30 Yakuza 1 0.25 weak 1 0.20 Lifter
These teams played recently in Week 6 (again a rematch of Week 6 games):
Here's what I said in my Hot or Not for that week:Code:Result of Without Ease vs. Revenge: 29 - 50 ,---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | TK | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Without Ease / 28 | 50 | 0 | -476 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | freddie 2 | 10 | 0 | -115 | 0 | | Golden_Aim 4 | 10 | 0 | -166 | 0 | | Raples 7 | 10 | 0 | -86 | 0 | | Struck 7 | 10 | 0 | -85 | 0 | | Stylez 8 | 10 | 0 | -24 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+------+-----------+----+ | Revenge / 48 | 29 | 1 | 2385 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | | Aimbot 13 | 10 | 0 | 562 | 0 | | cripple 4 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 0 | | Dawk 7 | 6 | 0 | 126 | 0 | | Hercules 12 | 5 | 0 | 858 | 0 | | Singer 12 | 4 | 1 | 815 | 0 | `---------------------------------+------+------+-----------+----' Revenge wins this game! MVP: Aimbot!
Ouch, that sure does make this seem like a David vs. Goliath matchup. However, Without Ease only had 2 of what I considered their top line in, and especially they did not have Megaman89. Further, Singer and Hercules had their 2 best games of the season. If Without Ease can get their top or close to top line in, it should be less of a slaughter...I hope. All that said, I would be an idiot to predict anyone but Revenge to win this game.Originally posted by Black Mage View PostLeave a comment:
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TWDT Finals Preview Blowout! Everything Must Go!
Here we are at the ultimate week. The season has flown by to this point, but I think (with a few rough exceptions) its been a pretty competitive league. Some usual players dominating (Vys, Raspi, Ease, Apok, maketso, megaman89, kim, Jamal, Shayde, Cripple, etc.), some others stepping up bigger than anticipated (Unabled, the lag known as BrokenFist, Rasaq, Singer, Burnt in terr, etc.). Thats just a quick rough list (I'll probably try to do an MVP or something after the season), and there's plenty more good performances where that came from.
Time to go in-depth with each finals matchup (with stats for the statgeeks out there like me), and in the case of the basing (I was too lazy to do basing stats) I'll list possible rosters for all 3 possible teams. Remember, the finals is best of 3 for dueling javelin and first to 20 minutes for basing.
TWDT-D
Top5Squad
As we can see, ro leads in K : D, but with a very small sample size. Apok has been the best warbird on the squad by a decent margin (and has played in all of the games). Top5Squad actually used exactly the top 5 players listed (excluding ro) in the quarterfinals 2 weeks ago, and all except chuckle (replaced with scoop) this last week in the win over Revenge. Top5Squad dropped their first 2 in dueling and 3 out of their first 4, before rallying and realizing the potential most of us saw when we looked at their roster (1-3 to 5-4). Their top line is pretty consistent with attendance, except for chuckle (and death row, but nobody really expects him to show up.). No <3, I think, has been used as a sub more often than anyone else in TWDT-D this year. Their style of play is mostly aggressive, and as the year has progressed their teaming has gotten better, correlating with their better record.Code:Dueling stats only, GP is games played this season (including playoffs) GP K : D Name 1 1.30 ro 9 1.26 Apok 4 1.12 chuckle 6 1.11 jones 6 1.00 jaa 9 1.00 cui 3 0.88 death row 7 0.88 no <3 2 0.74 scoop 3 0.72 lockdown 1 0.71 zhou 1 0.33 Locket
Ruby
Similarly to Top5Squad, Ruby has an outlier at the top with Geisha playing only 1 game for his high score (although no one disputes his skill). Ruby has been using a line of Jethro Tull, Deck, Lofty, Unabled, kid kaos/Exalt recently with good success. They seem to have good chemistry with each other and have won 3 in a row using a similar line (their last loss coming to Top5Squad in week 6). Quite amazingly, Unabled has been at least +2 in all 7 games I have records of him playing in, with only 2 of them being less than +3. Pretty stunning consistency, and he carried to push them over-the-top last week. Again similar to Top5Squad, their core group of warbirds have showed up consistently (5 players with at least 5 games played).Code:Dueling stats only, GP is games played this season (including playoffs) GP K : D Name 1 1.63 Geisha 5 1.51 Jethro Tull 7 1.39 Unabled 5 1.15 Deck 8 1.11 Lofty 2 1.08 Quartz 2 1.00 herbalist yangyun 7 0.93 kid kaos 3 0.88 killergt 3 0.86 Exalt 2 0.83 XXXI 1 0.80 beam 1 0.60 zazerick 1 0.50 duel pasta
These teams played in week 6 in a tight game:
I said this in my Hot or Not for the week:Code:Result of Ruby vs. top5squad: 46 - 50 ,---------------------------------+------+-----------+----. | K | D | Rating | LO | | ,------+------+-----------+----+ | Ruby / 46 | 50 | 1685 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | beam 8 | 10 | 145 | 0 | | DecK 2 | 7 | -31 | 0 | | kid kaos 12 | 10 | 620 | 0 | | Lofty 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | | Unabled 12 | 10 | 604 | 0 | | XXXI 10 | 10 | 343 | 0 | +---------------------------------+------+-----------+----+ | ,------+------+-----------+----+ | top5squad / 50 | 46 | 2540 | 0 | +------------------------' | | | | | Apok 5 | 10 | -28 | 0 | | cui 14 | 8 | 1074 | 0 | | jaa 12 | 8 | 717 | 0 | | Jones 13 | 10 | 764 | 0 | | no <3 6 | 10 | 13 | 0 | `---------------------------------+------+-----------+----' top5squad wins this game! MVP: cui!
Both squads played at least 3/5 of their usual starting lines, so it was a pretty solid representation of the two teams. In the end, I think that Top5Squad has slightly better players (when they are on their game and being consistent) and a slightly better chance of showing their top line. I think I will have to give the edge to Top5Squad for those reasons, but it will depend on which squad is able to impose its will and pressure onto the opponent. Its also entirely capable that someone like Jethro Tull or Apok could take the game over. Ruby has been making me pay in the last few weeks for going against them, but I think I will predict Top5Squad as the TWDT-D champions.Originally posted by Black Mage View PostLast edited by Black Mage; 08-26-2009, 02:45 PM.
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