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Time to build some excitement for the TWDT playoffs. All you players who showed up sporadically during the regular season, now is the time show up and take your team to glory (I'm looking at you Racka and Apok).
A quick run-down of the format: Each team will play the same team in all 3 rounds on Sunday. The winner (in a best of 3 for WB/jav and race to 20 for base) will advance in that league (regardless of the outcome of the other leagues). The 6* and 3 league rules are suspended for the playoffs.
The match-ups are Top5Squad vs. Ruby with the winner meeting Candy King next round, and Underground vs. Blood Choke to play Ez or Wut next. Let's look through the individual match-ups and project some lineups with some analysis and prediction.
*note: players listed in italics are less likely to show (have not showed in the last 3 weeks and/or have shown for less than 3 games)
TWDT-D
Top5Squad vs. Ruby
Ruby: Racka, Apok, High Templar, Peru, JAMAL, Seismic, Regen
Top5Squad: B4sERmaN75_x, Mythril, Delectable, Riverside, Vys, Rasaq, Money, Sir Spider
Previous game: Week 3- Top5Squad won 50-36. This game tells us little to nothing however, because Ruby showed probably their worst line of the season. Only Jamal among their probable starters showed up for that game.
I consider these two teams to have the best and deepest lines in the league, so this should be a dynamite match-up. Ruby's (3-4) line has been inconsistent with their attendance, so that will be a major influence on the outcome of this game. Ruby has only won once in it's last 4 games, so they really can't afford to not have their best line show and expect to win. On the other hand, Top5Squad's (5-2) attendance has been very good and have won three in a row. So good in fact, that Sir Spider (who would probably start for most other teams in the league) has not gotten into a game all year long despite showing for most weeks. So it would be very tough to pick against Top5Squad. And I won't.
Underground vs. Blood Choke
Underground: Ease, Chuckle, Obi, Weak, Regicide, Quartz, Ardour, Zagis
Blood Choke: Lofty, Yakuza, CrimsonX, Misled, Saetep, Lockdown, Scarce, Thrill
Previous game: Last week- Underground won 50-31. Similarly to the game above, Blood Choke (like Ruby) showed their worst line of the year to the previous meeting of these teams. It was basically all javs and Misled. Turban and Obi carried the game and Ease didn't even play because of how poor he saw their line to be. Basically, we learn nothing from that game except that Blood Choke needs their starters to show.
Blood Choke (4-3) is an even 2-2 in their last 4 games and would very much like some of those italicized names to show up for this rematch. They impressively beat Top5Squad 3 weeks ago as part of a 4-game winning streak, but have lost to Underground and Ez or Wut (their matchup this week and next) in the last 2 weeks. Underground (5-2) have received great records from their best and even some normally mediocre players. If they can get the same quality from Obi they got last week against Blood Choke, they should win handily. If not (and if Blood Choke shows some of their better players), it could be anyone's ballgame. The teams seem pretty even on paper, but Ease has done a good job this year as captain to get his better players to show every week and mainly for that reason, I am picking Underground.
TWDT-J
Top5squad vs. Ruby
Ruby: 24, Not in game, EvilDeed, Draft, Raples, Paradise, Chance
Top5Squad: Vys, Kawrae, Dead_Rain, BrokenFist, Havok, B4sERmaN75_x, Kira_Yammato~, Rasaq, Riverside, Sir Spider
Previous game: Week 6- Ruby won 50-42. Surprised it was even that close. Ruby showed a pretty good line and Top5Squad also showed a typical line, although with a bonus of Kawrae who is unlikely to show this weekend.
Ruby should beat Top5Squad easily. It's a mismatch on paper, in practice, and every other way. Removing the 3-league rule should help Top5Squad slightly, but not much and not enough.
Underground vs. Blood Choke
Underground: Ease, Waven, Regicide, Zidane, Struck, Violence, i.d.
Blood Choke: Marge, Kid Cudi, Necromotic, Thrill, Shan, Scarce, healt, statis
Previous game: Week 4- Underground won 50-36. This Is the first game that may actually help us to figure out who might win this matchup. Underground won in a fairly convincing victory that featured pretty much their entire starting lineup. Blood Choke also had 4 of their top 6 or so javs, so it can’t be said that they had a poor line on. Thrill alone was missing (or could/chose not to play).
Underground (5-2) had the best record (and the best differential by far) in javelin this year. The consistency of their line (5 players played at least 4 games) and the skill it possesses indicates a potential champion in the making. Blood Choke (4-3), on the other hand, has used 8 different players in only one game this season to go along with 4 players who have played in at least 4 games. They are clearly looking for a 5th starter to step up, and they’ll need one if they want to remain competitive with Underground. They’ve won their last 2 straight, but I don’t think they have enough momentum to hang with Underground.
TWDT-B
Top5Squad vs. Ruby
Top5Squad: Terr- thix/Chief Utsav/Dead_Rain, Shark- Oderus Urungus/Mythril/Riverside/zhou, Spider- Renzi/zhou/zung//Temporary/Vys/Rasaq/sCHOPe,Special- BrokenFist ( WB )/Dead_Rain ( Jav )/ Vys ( Jav )
Ruby: Terr- Draft/Raples/Cape, Shark- Dwopple/Raples/Scoop/Smurf/Project Dragon, Spider- Jamal/Rucci/Spezza<TW>/Rapes/Anidalife/Solacer, Anidalife ( Lanc )/Cape( Jav )/Peru ( WB )
Previous game: Last week (Week 2 replay)- Top5Squad won 15:00-12:46. This replay was only last week and both sides had nearly their ideal line (perhaps missing a player or two each). The game was tight throughout before Top5Squad took control at the end a bit. Top5Squad was also in a very good position to win the Week 2 game (I believe they had something like 14:30 minutes) before the bots died, so if nothing else they have experience beating Ruby in base.
In terms of talent, both of these squads have their fair share, especially in spider. Also depth at terrier (which can be a problem for some teams if their main terr does not show) is no problem for these squads. *Insert jaa drafts 6 terriers then picks up 2 in FA joke*. Ruby has underachieved (based purely on my expectations coming into the year) in basing this year, but they have played in more close games than anyone; they just can’t seem to get over the hump. Beating Top5Squad would give them a lot of momentum going forward. Top5Squad (6-1) on the other hand, has pretty much met my expectations. Their only blemish is to the other 6-1 team (Candy King) when they showed 0 basers. As much as I’d like to, I don’t have the balls to pick an upset here, so Top5Squad is my choice.
Underground vs. Blood Choke
Underground: Terr- Brookus, Shark- RageRitual/Hulk/Regicide/Chuckle/Struck/Ease/Riff_raff, Spider- I.D./Regicide/ /Lionheart/Fit of Rage/Humid/Ardour/Hulk, dald ( jav )/Ardour ( wb )/Regicide ( jav )
Blood Choke: Terr- Cintra, Shark- Stabwound/Major Crisis/the_paul/Zyclon, Spider- McVicar/Whimp/Zyclon/Misled/Saetep/Shan, Thrill( jav )/Necromotic ( jav )
Previous game: Week 5- Blood Choke won 15:00-12:15. Blood Choke prevailed in this relatively close game (as far as the basing went this season at least). They managed to show the sharks they wanted to go along with Cintra (although their spiders were mostly converted javs and wbs). Underground, on the other hand, was (and probably still is) figuring out it’s shark situation. They had dald and a few decent spiders on though. If Stabwound shows up on Sunday, that would go a long way to repeating this result.
Underground (3-4) comes into this week as pretty much the average base squad. However, that’s exactly what we said about Ease’s squad last year. They’ve got Brookus (who proved in the playoffs last year that he’s still got something left in the tank) who dutifully shows, as well as Turban and a few other decent spiders. In shark, however, it’s anybody’s best guess who will play. The 3-league rule suspension helps them out a lot, as it lets Ease base without sacrificing WB or Jav. Last week he sharked in order to let his other squaddies played their natural positions, to decent success. Similar things can be said about Blood Choke’s (3-4) basing mediocrity as well. They’ve alternated wins and losses for the last 5 games. Cintra anchors the squad and has had a breakout season, but the spider corps is fairly weak, relying a lot on people who specialize in other ships. If the alternating streak is to continue, Blood Choke should win. But I think it might end and they will lose again, this time to Underground.
A quick run-down of the format: Each team will play the same team in all 3 rounds on Sunday. The winner (in a best of 3 for WB/jav and race to 20 for base) will advance in that league (regardless of the outcome of the other leagues). The 6* and 3 league rules are suspended for the playoffs.
The match-ups are Top5Squad vs. Ruby with the winner meeting Candy King next round, and Underground vs. Blood Choke to play Ez or Wut next. Let's look through the individual match-ups and project some lineups with some analysis and prediction.
*note: players listed in italics are less likely to show (have not showed in the last 3 weeks and/or have shown for less than 3 games)
TWDT-D
Top5Squad vs. Ruby
Ruby: Racka, Apok, High Templar, Peru, JAMAL, Seismic, Regen
Top5Squad: B4sERmaN75_x, Mythril, Delectable, Riverside, Vys, Rasaq, Money, Sir Spider
Previous game: Week 3- Top5Squad won 50-36. This game tells us little to nothing however, because Ruby showed probably their worst line of the season. Only Jamal among their probable starters showed up for that game.
I consider these two teams to have the best and deepest lines in the league, so this should be a dynamite match-up. Ruby's (3-4) line has been inconsistent with their attendance, so that will be a major influence on the outcome of this game. Ruby has only won once in it's last 4 games, so they really can't afford to not have their best line show and expect to win. On the other hand, Top5Squad's (5-2) attendance has been very good and have won three in a row. So good in fact, that Sir Spider (who would probably start for most other teams in the league) has not gotten into a game all year long despite showing for most weeks. So it would be very tough to pick against Top5Squad. And I won't.
Underground vs. Blood Choke
Underground: Ease, Chuckle, Obi, Weak, Regicide, Quartz, Ardour, Zagis
Blood Choke: Lofty, Yakuza, CrimsonX, Misled, Saetep, Lockdown, Scarce, Thrill
Previous game: Last week- Underground won 50-31. Similarly to the game above, Blood Choke (like Ruby) showed their worst line of the year to the previous meeting of these teams. It was basically all javs and Misled. Turban and Obi carried the game and Ease didn't even play because of how poor he saw their line to be. Basically, we learn nothing from that game except that Blood Choke needs their starters to show.
Blood Choke (4-3) is an even 2-2 in their last 4 games and would very much like some of those italicized names to show up for this rematch. They impressively beat Top5Squad 3 weeks ago as part of a 4-game winning streak, but have lost to Underground and Ez or Wut (their matchup this week and next) in the last 2 weeks. Underground (5-2) have received great records from their best and even some normally mediocre players. If they can get the same quality from Obi they got last week against Blood Choke, they should win handily. If not (and if Blood Choke shows some of their better players), it could be anyone's ballgame. The teams seem pretty even on paper, but Ease has done a good job this year as captain to get his better players to show every week and mainly for that reason, I am picking Underground.
TWDT-J
Top5squad vs. Ruby
Ruby: 24, Not in game, EvilDeed, Draft, Raples, Paradise, Chance
Top5Squad: Vys, Kawrae, Dead_Rain, BrokenFist, Havok, B4sERmaN75_x, Kira_Yammato~, Rasaq, Riverside, Sir Spider
Previous game: Week 6- Ruby won 50-42. Surprised it was even that close. Ruby showed a pretty good line and Top5Squad also showed a typical line, although with a bonus of Kawrae who is unlikely to show this weekend.
Ruby should beat Top5Squad easily. It's a mismatch on paper, in practice, and every other way. Removing the 3-league rule should help Top5Squad slightly, but not much and not enough.
Underground vs. Blood Choke
Underground: Ease, Waven, Regicide, Zidane, Struck, Violence, i.d.
Blood Choke: Marge, Kid Cudi, Necromotic, Thrill, Shan, Scarce, healt, statis
Previous game: Week 4- Underground won 50-36. This Is the first game that may actually help us to figure out who might win this matchup. Underground won in a fairly convincing victory that featured pretty much their entire starting lineup. Blood Choke also had 4 of their top 6 or so javs, so it can’t be said that they had a poor line on. Thrill alone was missing (or could/chose not to play).
Underground (5-2) had the best record (and the best differential by far) in javelin this year. The consistency of their line (5 players played at least 4 games) and the skill it possesses indicates a potential champion in the making. Blood Choke (4-3), on the other hand, has used 8 different players in only one game this season to go along with 4 players who have played in at least 4 games. They are clearly looking for a 5th starter to step up, and they’ll need one if they want to remain competitive with Underground. They’ve won their last 2 straight, but I don’t think they have enough momentum to hang with Underground.
TWDT-B
Top5Squad vs. Ruby
Top5Squad: Terr- thix/Chief Utsav/Dead_Rain, Shark- Oderus Urungus/Mythril/Riverside/zhou, Spider- Renzi/zhou/zung//Temporary/Vys/Rasaq/sCHOPe,Special- BrokenFist ( WB )/Dead_Rain ( Jav )/ Vys ( Jav )
Ruby: Terr- Draft/Raples/Cape, Shark- Dwopple/Raples/Scoop/Smurf/Project Dragon, Spider- Jamal/Rucci/Spezza<TW>/Rapes/Anidalife/Solacer, Anidalife ( Lanc )/Cape( Jav )/Peru ( WB )
Previous game: Last week (Week 2 replay)- Top5Squad won 15:00-12:46. This replay was only last week and both sides had nearly their ideal line (perhaps missing a player or two each). The game was tight throughout before Top5Squad took control at the end a bit. Top5Squad was also in a very good position to win the Week 2 game (I believe they had something like 14:30 minutes) before the bots died, so if nothing else they have experience beating Ruby in base.
In terms of talent, both of these squads have their fair share, especially in spider. Also depth at terrier (which can be a problem for some teams if their main terr does not show) is no problem for these squads. *Insert jaa drafts 6 terriers then picks up 2 in FA joke*. Ruby has underachieved (based purely on my expectations coming into the year) in basing this year, but they have played in more close games than anyone; they just can’t seem to get over the hump. Beating Top5Squad would give them a lot of momentum going forward. Top5Squad (6-1) on the other hand, has pretty much met my expectations. Their only blemish is to the other 6-1 team (Candy King) when they showed 0 basers. As much as I’d like to, I don’t have the balls to pick an upset here, so Top5Squad is my choice.
Underground vs. Blood Choke
Underground: Terr- Brookus, Shark- RageRitual/Hulk/Regicide/Chuckle/Struck/Ease/Riff_raff, Spider- I.D./Regicide/ /Lionheart/Fit of Rage/Humid/Ardour/Hulk, dald ( jav )/Ardour ( wb )/Regicide ( jav )
Blood Choke: Terr- Cintra, Shark- Stabwound/Major Crisis/the_paul/Zyclon, Spider- McVicar/Whimp/Zyclon/Misled/Saetep/Shan, Thrill( jav )/Necromotic ( jav )
Previous game: Week 5- Blood Choke won 15:00-12:15. Blood Choke prevailed in this relatively close game (as far as the basing went this season at least). They managed to show the sharks they wanted to go along with Cintra (although their spiders were mostly converted javs and wbs). Underground, on the other hand, was (and probably still is) figuring out it’s shark situation. They had dald and a few decent spiders on though. If Stabwound shows up on Sunday, that would go a long way to repeating this result.
Underground (3-4) comes into this week as pretty much the average base squad. However, that’s exactly what we said about Ease’s squad last year. They’ve got Brookus (who proved in the playoffs last year that he’s still got something left in the tank) who dutifully shows, as well as Turban and a few other decent spiders. In shark, however, it’s anybody’s best guess who will play. The 3-league rule suspension helps them out a lot, as it lets Ease base without sacrificing WB or Jav. Last week he sharked in order to let his other squaddies played their natural positions, to decent success. Similar things can be said about Blood Choke’s (3-4) basing mediocrity as well. They’ve alternated wins and losses for the last 5 games. Cintra anchors the squad and has had a breakout season, but the spider corps is fairly weak, relying a lot on people who specialize in other ships. If the alternating streak is to continue, Blood Choke should win. But I think it might end and they will lose again, this time to Underground.
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