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Heading into the final week of regulation, ill and Meteorite have officially been eliminated. Congratulations to Thunder, Power, Blooms, Patouf, Silence, and WIN OR DIE on reaching the postseason!
And a tip of the hat to Thunder for essentially clinching the #1 seed in the Playoffs. They're, for all practical intents and purposes, impossible to catch at this point
There is, however, a lot to play for in WEEK 7. The biggest match of the week is easily Power vs. Blooms in TWDT-D. Make no mistake, these are the only two teams who can clinch the #2 seed and bye into the Semi-Finals. Patouf can't catch them because of tiebreakers and strength of schedule (Power and Blooms both have gimmes in their strongest leagues, so neither will do worse than 1-2) on top of the fact Patouf can't go 3-0 due to facing Thunder (6-0) in warbird.
There is a 99% chance that the Power vs. Blooms warbird match will decide who gets a bye into the SF, as their head-to-head is 1-1 and they have guaranteed wins in javelin and basing, respectively, meaning whoever wins that goes 2-1 and has the tiebreaker; Blooms' jav match vs. Patouf and Power's basing match vs. Thunder are likely irrelevant in this narrow regard. They're relatively even in strength in warbird, so expect an exciting match that decides who skips the Quarter-Finals within the first 15 minutes of TWDT WEEK 7.
There is also some other jostling to go around, and particular matchups Captains may wish to avoid, as the QF pits the #3 seed vs. the #6, and the #4 vs. the #5.
Patouf, Silence, and WIN OR DIE are all within 1 game of each other, and could finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th, depending on how the final games go. Here are the Strength of Schedule and Projected Standings for WEEK 7:
Patouf and Silence could trade #4 and #5 spots depending on their TWDT-B game, but will likely face each other in the Quarter-Finals.
WIN OR DIE has losing tiebreaks with both Silence and Patouf, and an almost unwinnable match vs. Blooms in TWDT-B, meaning they will likely finish 6th.
WIN OR DIE
Silence 0-2
Patouf 1-2
SILENCE
Patouf 1-1
Win or Die 2-0
PATOUF
Silence 1-1
Win or Die 2-1
HOWEVER, if they beat Silence in javs and go 2-1 (they have a gimme in warbird vs. TJ Hazuki), and Patouf loses to Thunder in wb (guaranteed), Blooms in jav (the least likely), and Silence in basing (very possible), they would jump into the 4v5 match ahead of them.
They could also pull the biggest upset of the season off and beat Blooms in TWDT-B, go 3-0, which would also put them ahead of a 1-2 Patouf (who have a brutal WEEK 7 schedule) and clinch 4th or 5th.
Both scenarios are remote, but possible. If the Playoffs started today, they would look like this:
Winners of the 4v5 matches will face #1 in the Semi-Finals. Winners of the 3v6 will face #2.
I think the most likely, and only, change will be decided by the most important match of the season, Power vs. Blooms in TWDT-D. Definitely the game to watch. But don't count Racka and WIN OR DIE out yet, they upset Zidane and co. in jav and could definitely make a late push to slip into 4th or 5th.
Good luck to everyone in WEEK 7!
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