TWDT-J PLAYOFFS PREDICTION: Blooms vs WIN OR DIE

[Turban]

Blooms played a solid regular season, finishing third place in the javelin standings with a respectable score of five wins and two losses, and a good kill to death difference. They have one of the best show rates when it comes to the top rated players with all of their 8-star or higher players showing every week, and on top of that they have have a clear edge over their opponents when it comes to the quality of their lower rated players. There is only one slight weakness and that is the apparent lack of a true key player who could make the difference in a close match, but thanks to their balanced lineup that should not be an issue in this coming match.

WIN OR DIE on the other hand had a rocky regular season, finishing sixth place with three wins and four losses, and one can not ignore their negative kill to death difference which tells a lot about the team. On a brighter note, they have a good roster in terms of depth and talent, but have unfortunately that has proven unfruitful due to the extremely poor show rates by most of their highly rated javelin players. However, their greatest Achilles' heel is the poorly performing 5-star players which means the other players have to carry their own weight, and a little bit more than that, for WIN OR DIE to have a fighting chance and emerge victorious.

As an added note, there was a trade between the teams during the regular season (Turban for Dreamwin and Burnt) which definitely adds an extra incentive for those players to perform and prove a point to their former teams.

This match will more than likely be a three round match, although Blooms are favored to win due to their well performing lineup, and way better 5-star players, but with some luck, and assuming certain players suddenly show to the game, WIN OR DIE will have a good chance to cause an upset.



Blooms




Their recently acquired player Dreamwin is a capable player with the potential on a good day to be their star player. Spawnisen and Mean Gene have been the carrying forces of their team during the regular season, performing above average, while the rest of their starting lineup has managed to carry their own weight and not be a burden. The show rate of their players has undeniably been a contributing factor in their successful regular season.

Morg and Gurliver have been the shining prospects of Bloom when it comes to low-tier players as they have been respectively ranked as the first and fourth best performing 5-star players this TWDT-J season. The performance of these Morg could very well be the determining factor in this nail-biter.

Blooms are in a great position when it comes to their available substitutions as Maketso, M_M God, and both of their 5-star players have been showing every week to their teams matches.




WIN OR DIE




It is hard to determine the full potential of this team as they have the most wild card players of any team including players such as EvilDeed, Exploid, Reaver, and Pjotter. However, based on the abysmal show rates of these aforementioned players, WIN OR DIE does need a small miracle to get an edge over their opponents this weekend.

Turban has had a great season, ranking as the second best javelin in terms of overall performance, although his season has been controversial given certain appeals regarding his latency, and thus there is no guarantee that he will be able to play the full two to three rounds this coming match. Torcher has been by a fair margin the best performing original member of the draft team, and the performance of these two has the potential to flip the tables around in an otherwise close match.

Unfortunately their greatest weakness is something that is hard to overcome as both Darkgriz and Markmrw, while always being there to support the team, have been lackluster in terms of performance. Both players are averaging an underwhelming amount of kills per match. There is no lack of substitute candidates, but even then the show rates of the players is definitely a concerning factor which can not be ignored -- it could very well be what makes or breaks this team and their season hopes.

On a brighter note WIN OR DIE has been fairly disciplined this season in terms of team kills, averaging less than one team kill per match, and their key players pack a punch when it comes to killing potential. If all their players put on a brave front, anything could happen.



SUMMARY




Above are the predicted lineups of both teams, along with the likely substitutes and some wild card could potentially tilt the scales in one teams favor. Below is also a quick comparison of the expected lineups, showing the average kills, deaths and team kills, and combined individual ratings of both substitutes and starter, coupled with is my personal estimation of the winning chances for both teams.

The outcome match will more than likely be decided by the performances of the aforementioned key players and 5-star players as it is unlikely to see renowned players such as EvilDeed and Exploid will show to the match -- or at the very least, they are not going to be in good shape even if they do decide to grace their opponents with their presence.





PREDICTED RESULTS:

ROUND 1 - Blooms (50-42)
ROUND 2 - WIN OR DIE (50-47)
ROUND 3 - Blooms (50-45)

[Turban]

I had promised to create one of these for TWDT-J playoffs, will likely work on the other match tomorrow at some point in similar fashion. I used the link below this post as a tool, it's basically an updated TWDT-J statistics spreadsheet with some additional information all which were used in the final algorithm of the ratings.

I tried to make a decent attempt at making a decent formula for the ratings, and added things such as kills and deaths per match, kill to death ratio, highest amount of kills received in a match, overall performance in comparison to the players rating with lower rated players getting a slight bonus, amount of times given MVP award, times not eliminated in a match (Ao9), average margin of a victory/loss, average team kills and show rate (confidence) to rating formula. These ratings are by no means perfect, and could probably still use some tweaking such as changing the confidence multiplier -- and to be honest there really is no way to properly evaluate player performance in such a short regular season with few games.

The ratings of players has been averaged to 100, meaning anything greater than that is above average of a performance, while those under who have under 100 rating underperformed. Here is the formula I ended up using making this one;

=(((((KILLS/GP)*30)+(KD*30)+((AO9/GP)*20)-(MARGIN))+((10/R)*120)+((HK*2.5)+(MVP*10))-((TK/GP)*5)-((DEATHS/GP)*15))*CONF\1.8846







TWDT-J RATINGS AND STATISTICS (2015)

on another note, I will likely record this match as I'm playing in it and will upload it on dailymotion -- granted there is a chance that Shadowmere may do it as well, so props to him.

[Stayon]

"This match will more than likely determine the team to advance to the next round of the playoffs"

Isn't it single elimination? That got me confused. Say WoD loses jav and base, but win wb...Blooms wbs would still go through despite losing?

[Turban]

"This match will more than likely determine the team to advance to the next round of the playoffs"

Isn't it single elimination? That got me confused. Say WoD loses jav and base, but win wb...Blooms wbs would still go through despite losing?

oh right,

I was in a hurry, had to leave for work early, and forgot that was how we are doing it this season where as couple seasons ago it was a bit different unless I'm mistaken.

Tiny wanted a "true rating" to the players, which isn't influenced by the star rating of players (and that is now called "performance"), and he shalt receive. have updated it, and will fix a couple of things now that I have an hour or two to work on this one.

[ogron]

"This match will more than likely determine the team to advance to the next round of the playoffs"

Isn't it single elimination? That got me confused. Say WoD loses jav and base, but win wb...Blooms wbs would still go through despite losing?

Blooms wbs would not go through. It has been per league for at least 4-5 years now. There's a good argument for winning 2/3 you advance in all 3 to eliminate 1-league stackers finishing 5th and 6th then winning that league after slinking into playoffs and defeating the spirit of the league (trying to win all 3 -- or at least 2 out of 3), but

1) teams with superstar multi-league caps like Ease would have a big edge,

2) more teams advancing further is more fun and more engaging

3) a jav line shouldn't be punished because wbs and basers didn't come through


If you looked at it from a strictly competitive, darwinian, multi-league winning view, it would be the superior format. But imo TWDT has an important participation/inclusion element, so I'd rather have 75% of teams make playoffs and any matches they win continue on to the next round, even if they lose two.

The biggest issue is always people stacking base, but even then they tend to lose often enough. Cranium stacked and won TWDT-B last year, but 2011, 2012, 2013 pretty balanced teams won (Hulk triple crowned 2011, dreamwin double-crowned 2012, my team won wb/jav in quarters and lost 50-44, 42-50, 43-50 to Ease in jav in semis). And Undercut's team only lost by a minute and a half.

[Stayon]

Ye, I knew it's like that as I remember dt being like that for a while now, just had to confirm after turb's post.

And I agree with the format, as there are more pros. Not to mention if a team makes it 2-0 in wb and jav, the losing team could just bounce the fuck off and forfeit base, making it irrelevant.