TWDT FINALS PREVIEW

[ogron]

The TWDT 2016 Finals go down this Sunday, as three squads vie for glory in Season 12. Dreamwin's Terrorist and Tiny's Paddington will go head-to-head in warbird at 3pm EST and javelin at 4pm EST, while Stannis's Baratheon will enter the fray to take on Terrorist in basing at 5pm EST.

Terrorist

Starters: Dreamwin, Stayon, Absent, Rough (7), Kado (6)
Subs: Little Buddhist (7), Ison (6)

Terrorist has had an amazing season in warbird, made all-the-more impressive that they've done so without a single player above 7 stars. No resolution caps, the death of Fierce, great lag, natural talent, and a will and determination to win have all conspired to produce a team determined to oust the old guard and claim the TWDT-D crown.

Dreamwin and Stayon have pushed the limits of their abilities in WB and been excellent this season, finishing as the 5th and 6th best warbirds statistically this season.

Two players aren't enough to win a title, however. Terrorist looked in deep trouble in the Semi-Finals, but found a hero in Absent, who went 16-7 and 15-8 to help them to the Finals. This trio sets the foundation for the squad and they'll all need to play well.

Kado has been a serendipitous addition, proving to be the most valuable 6-Star warbird this season, and finishing 8th (!!) in warbird this year, and gives Terrorist a surprising edge.

Their biggest weakness comes in who fits into their fifth slot. Rough played in crunch time but has been sub-par, hanging on for dear life. Little Buddhist has been decent, but Terrorist captains don't seem to trust him in big games. It could be an issue in the Finals.

Can the Cinderella Story Continue?
They're definitely underdogs against a stacked Paddington squad, but a plethora of no-shows and some low-star weaknesses in Tiny's squad could provide an opening for an upset -- Terrorist are more than primed for it.


Paddington

Starters: Shadowmere, vys, Best, 24 (7), Tiny (6)
Subs: Attacks (7), Siaxis

Paddington has been absolutely dominant, and has been undefeated since acquiring Best. Best is the current TWLD and TWDT-D Champion, having won on Burn and Silence in 2015. He is the final boss. The match should already be decided. But there are problems brewing for Paddington come Sunday.

Will Best Show?
Best is 50/50 to show this Sunday. Weak can't show. Siaxis likely won't be able to make it. Three of the top 10 warbirds this season probably can't show.

Thankfully, they also have the #1 and #2 warbirds this season in 24 and Shadowmere, who have been absolute monsters all season. 24 is unreal value at 7-stars. Shadowmere is the only player to drop 20 kills in a game this year.

vys will be making his return, which should be a big help, and Attacks, who is a top three 7-Star warbird in TWDT, will also be ready to go.

Their biggest weakness is at the 6-Star. While Tiny had a good Semi-Finals against Silence, he is still 60-72 in warbird and failed to get over 7 kills for 9 straight weeks. One would expect a regression to the mean, especially if Best can't show.

Nevertheless, Paddington is stacked with so much warbird talent, it's hard not to think they're favorites, even without multiple top-tier players showing.

Good luck to both teams this Sunday!

[ogron]

Paddington

Starters: 24, Shadowmere, Tiny, not in game (7), mad jack (6)
Subs: vys (7), DSB (6), Best

Unlike TWDT-D, Paddington's big three will be showing for the javelin Final, as Shadowmere, 24, and Tiny will be starting. A good thing, considering they finished #2, #5, and #8 in TWDT-J this season.

I think this has the potential to be a really amazing final, featuring 6 of the top 10 javs this year with the aforementioned trio taking on Stayon, Dreamwin, and Rough.

A Quiet Blow
While it might go unnoticed by most, Weak missing the Finals will have a deep impact on Paddington's chances in TWDT-J, as he was the most valuable 7-Star jav in the league, finishing #14 in the league. No one outside of Trasher was even close.

This is important, because unlike warbird, which is a trash league because (1) it's a retarded strayfest decided by who cares more, and (2) most of the good warbirds have quit, javelin is still an insanely strong league. Like 15 of the 20 top warbirds in TWDT this season are 7-Stars. There are only 2 in javelin. This league is hard.

Weak's impact is significant, and not in game or vys is a huge downgrade. We'll see how Paddington weathers that loss Sunday.

Mad Jack is a very nice 6-Star assuming he shows.

This team chewed up and spit out a very scary-looking team in Silence which featured Ease, Roiwerk, and Commodo, so look for them to be serious contenders for the title.

P.S.: A Quiet Blow is also the name of Tiny's sextape.




Terrorist

Starters: Dreamwin, Stayon, Rough, Hellkite (7), Downfall (6)
Subs: Kado (7), Henry Saari (6)

Terrorist smartly started out the season with instant synergy, getting their S19 and S20 TWLJ line of Stayon, Dreamwin, and Rough. It may not be enough to beat Ease and Zidane in TWL, but it's certainly a lethal combo in TWDT.

This threesome has been fantastic all season, but there hasn't been much to speak of beyond these three -- that might not matter, though, given that Paddington doesn't have much beyond their top three either going into Sunday.

A Late Season Find
Is Hellkite the answer to Terrorist's 7-Star problem? They seem to think so, starting him late in the season as he dropped a massive 16 kills Week 7, and playing well in the Semi-Final. Paddington should've had a huge edge here, but with Weak out of the picture Terror may be preferable.

Terrorist also has problems at the 6, with a revolving door of players at the position, but managed to eke out a pair of wins last week with Downfall doing a passable job.

How the uninspiring set of low-stars on each side play could determine who wins the TWDT-J title, but that typically hasn't been the case these past few seasons as long as they can stay alive and bullet.

I think it will ultimately come down to who plays better between Stayon/Rough/Dreamwin and Shadowmere/24/Tiny.

The momentum from the TWDT-D game prior may be the edge either squad needs.

Good luck to both squads!

[ogron]

Terrorist

Terr: Dreamwin, NL>Trigger
Shark: DOWNFALL, Hellkite, nokkonen (7)
Spider: Stayon, Henry Saari, Dreamwin/NL>Trigger, Rough (7), Stung (6)
Subs: Kado (6), Rab (7)

I'm really looking forward to the TWDT-J and TWDT-B Finals, they both feature extremely strong lines and should produce an epic finale to the season (I'm not so sure about TWDT-D -- we'll see.)

Terrorist will feature either Dreamwin or NL>Trigger in terr, two very savvy veteran terrs, with the other spidering. In shark, they'll play DOWNFALL with either Hellkite or nokkonen. They may try to start nokkonen to sneak in more spider power, but I don't think he'll be viable in the Finals, and we'll ultimately see DOWNFALL/HK.

Stayon has been a beast all season, and will head the spider contingent along with Henry Saari, with Rough/Kado and Stung as their low-stars, who are all very good low star spiders.

This is a great team without a lot of weaknesses, and their positional variability is perhaps their strongest attribute -- they can play a lot of different combinations, while Baratheon is mostly locked into theirs.



Baratheon

Terr: Ogron
Shark: Zidane, Rodney
Spider: Solace, Turban, M_M God, Mr. Homo (7), Geio (6)
Subs: Sulla (6), AFRI (6), Wax (7)

Ogron will terrier ahead of Zidane and Rodney for Baratheon as they head towards the finish line (Finnish line?) With Zidane winning the TWLB title and Rodney starting the Semi-Finals, look for them to press their shark advantage in the TWDT-B Final.

Solace, Turban, and M_M God form the strongest trio of overspiders this season, and will look to push hard out of the gate, while Mr. Homo continues his sharp play under alongside a bevy of good 6-Star spiders in Geio, Sulla, and Afri.

This should be an epic clash of basing behemoths, with a lot of potential to go the full three rounds. Terrorist is undefeated, while Baratheon has won more minutes against every squad. Neither has lost a game with their full line.

History is on the line, with 2012 TWDT-B Champion Terrorist locking horns with 2013 TWDT-B Champion Baratheon in this best of 3.

Good luck to both teams!

[ogron]

[Dreamwin]

Thank for the write-up. Lineups seem accurate, discluding one projection. GL HF today to all teams!