Schedule Strength

[Tiny]

Off for a couple days and had some premier league inspiration!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EOkOveSE0JFsz-Vh1eOC-MsGdNbj1nAbjpSaNALKAMw/edit?usp=sharing

[paradise!]

Thanks for this! Also testing new sig.

[zidane]

That should be your 1st chat bud, love u tho

[ogron]

Tiny if you're going to make a dorky post, should at least do it right

strongly disagree with using current wins as the parameter given trades and FA dramatically altered rosters, and close-game variance can lead to Wins not being predictive even if that were the case.

i will post something later to counteract this dubiousness

[ogron]

Here is an actual predictive model for TWDT-D:



Create a statistical baseline for performance assessing every player's TruStar* value (how many stars they're actually worth), then build the strongest possible 40* line for every team.

You can then compare all 8 teams best lines against each other and assign win % odds of their 4 remaining games in warbird.

For example, you list Demacia near the bottom of the league when their top line is clearly a Top 2 team, with a predicted 2.51 wins.

Line Construction (greyed out players assumed bench and not counted in TruStar* total):



Too lazy to do more, but if you want to do TWDT-J, the entire leagues TruStar* values for jav are done, just construct the lines and plug in the values into the WB section and get win totals for all 8 teams.

Data available here.

[Tiny]

Gj on that man. Mine was a lazy analysis based solely on current records. Good stuff

[Zeebu]

ah, sweet. its always been assumed but now we have hard data backing up the fact that having rucci or hellrazor on your team is worse than having no one in at all.

[ronaldinho]

You are mean. This season is the first time I left the bench in TWDTD. Also Rucci is great you know nothing zeebu. Also who the fuck gave you 7*? You wouldn't even play as 6* over Cyclone. Let's be real.

[LaSenza]

I find it ironic that I'm defending rucci and hellrazor here, but the truth is they have become the enemy team's win condition. They target them both first every round, naturally they'd be doing poorly with that kind of pressure on them.

[Rab]

It's always been that way in wbs, it's why the 8/8/8/8/8 line does well.

[Zeebu]

it was a joke, guys.

but yes, lasenza, it makes sense