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Beam asked me to do a star cap analysis for the ratings and cap.
The key metric is the Stress columns, which measure the amount of stress put on the star cap by the highest rated players filling up all the starting spots in a league.
The current season (S21), based on signups and initial ratings, has stress level of 105% in WB, 105% in Jav, and 107% in Base when adjusted for 10 teams and a 41/41/67 cap.
The prior season (S20), had 109%, 109%, 107% based on 8 teams and a 40/40/66 cap. The numbers in the stress test have been adjusted per capita and are directly comparable.
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The general feeling and my experiences the past three seasons:
S20
Base was a living hell at 107% stress, and felt incredibly oppressive. A lot of elite players benched. WB and Jav also felt the pinch with very high 109% stress.
S19
Most basing teams filled up the cap, but a few didn't and complained being below it. This was a 67* season and due to these complaints Zid lowered the cap to 66* and with more talent showing up the next season it turned into a shitshow.
You can see the general feeling and experiences of that season being reflected in the stress score, with talent being a little light and having a low 103% stress score. WB and Jav also felt like there were more opportunities with 106% and 107%, although results varied.
This also shows how incredibly sensitive the levers of ratings and the star cap are. Lowering the basing cap by 1* and having a few extra basing signups dramatically altered the makeup of TWDT and turned a 103% stress league into 107%. Now that we have a few seasons under our belt and some data to look at and match up with our experiences, we can better control those levers to create better caps and ratings.
S18
Basing was again a little light under a 67* cap, but most teams managed to fill it. WB and Jav felt tight and had 108% stress.
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It is important to note that every percentage point is incredibly salient in the Stress column.
Based on these numbers, and my general feelings and recollection of those seasons, my conclusion would be this:
107% is oppressive and the star cap is too low.
105% feels like the optimal balance with some leeway for no shows.
103% is a bit light and some teams won't hit the cap
I think future seasons should have TWDT operators aiming for 105% stress in each league, giving leeway for lag, no shows, etc.
Raising the star cap to 68* in base this season would reduce the stress from 107% to 105%.
The current 41* is optimal for the WB/Jav ratings.
It should be noted, however, that there is still a week of signups to go + Free Agency. All the S18, S19, and S20 numbers are POST-FA. Therefore, 105% stress right now might turn into 107% with new signups and FA. Given that we have 10 teams instead of 8, however, the stress increases will be lower than previous seasons.
My recommendations for the Stress level once main draft signups are closed is to have a stress level of:
104% to 104.5%
This puts the league in position to absorb FAs and hit 105% post-FA.
The optimal current strategy for reaching this goal is to set a 41/41/68 cap and alter some ratings so the stress level goes from 105% to 104-104.5%.
The key metric is the Stress columns, which measure the amount of stress put on the star cap by the highest rated players filling up all the starting spots in a league.
The current season (S21), based on signups and initial ratings, has stress level of 105% in WB, 105% in Jav, and 107% in Base when adjusted for 10 teams and a 41/41/67 cap.
The prior season (S20), had 109%, 109%, 107% based on 8 teams and a 40/40/66 cap. The numbers in the stress test have been adjusted per capita and are directly comparable.
================================================== ==========
The general feeling and my experiences the past three seasons:
S20
Base was a living hell at 107% stress, and felt incredibly oppressive. A lot of elite players benched. WB and Jav also felt the pinch with very high 109% stress.
S19
Most basing teams filled up the cap, but a few didn't and complained being below it. This was a 67* season and due to these complaints Zid lowered the cap to 66* and with more talent showing up the next season it turned into a shitshow.
You can see the general feeling and experiences of that season being reflected in the stress score, with talent being a little light and having a low 103% stress score. WB and Jav also felt like there were more opportunities with 106% and 107%, although results varied.
This also shows how incredibly sensitive the levers of ratings and the star cap are. Lowering the basing cap by 1* and having a few extra basing signups dramatically altered the makeup of TWDT and turned a 103% stress league into 107%. Now that we have a few seasons under our belt and some data to look at and match up with our experiences, we can better control those levers to create better caps and ratings.
S18
Basing was again a little light under a 67* cap, but most teams managed to fill it. WB and Jav felt tight and had 108% stress.
================================================== ==========
It is important to note that every percentage point is incredibly salient in the Stress column.
Based on these numbers, and my general feelings and recollection of those seasons, my conclusion would be this:
107% is oppressive and the star cap is too low.
105% feels like the optimal balance with some leeway for no shows.
103% is a bit light and some teams won't hit the cap
I think future seasons should have TWDT operators aiming for 105% stress in each league, giving leeway for lag, no shows, etc.
Raising the star cap to 68* in base this season would reduce the stress from 107% to 105%.
The current 41* is optimal for the WB/Jav ratings.
It should be noted, however, that there is still a week of signups to go + Free Agency. All the S18, S19, and S20 numbers are POST-FA. Therefore, 105% stress right now might turn into 107% with new signups and FA. Given that we have 10 teams instead of 8, however, the stress increases will be lower than previous seasons.
My recommendations for the Stress level once main draft signups are closed is to have a stress level of:
104% to 104.5%
This puts the league in position to absorb FAs and hit 105% post-FA.
The optimal current strategy for reaching this goal is to set a 41/41/68 cap and alter some ratings so the stress level goes from 105% to 104-104.5%.
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