[TW MAFIA] Western Chronicles

[RoDNeY]

SWEET SWEET VENGEANCE

Don't forget these two parts I bolded. He first says Exalt is experienced, but then distances himself from him. Then he says nice things about me and Willby, who were the only other two possibly getting elected at that point.

Poor Rodney, getting stuck with this fellas bag of shit. Rodney, care to let us know your thoughts on this?

A couple things that we should get out of the way

I cant speak for Scurvys thought process behind his only post before he forgot about the game but now that i have his role i assume he was just commenting on first impressions of the people jumping into the spotlight. Maybe it shows his inexperience idk

I cant speak on Rodney 1.0, he is dead and frankly it wouldnt help and as FiS mentioned this topic should be labeled as off limits regardless.

What i can say is that Rodney 2.0 is playing exactly the same as our dead vigilante

[the_paul]

So I did some thinking about how to best play this out. I originally figured scum wouldn't automatically jump at those roles knowing the spotlight and likely investigation it will cause, but it's actually a bigger win for them if they get it due to investigation-immunity. That is, it is if that player is sufficiently skilled at mafia. It likely isn't if that player is inexperienced. Due to the investigation-immunity I overlooked before, Marshall is now the best possible role for any scum (or SK) to remain ambiguous, because they don't actually have to take the heat in lynching anyone, they are bulletproof due to the Bodyguard, and they can hide away their scum buddies from ever having to participate with the jailkeeper ability. Scum incarcerating scum means that player won't have to talk (and potentially make mistakes) all day and cannot be targeted by anyone at night, so nobody can claim guilty on them. That means Marshall can cause both themselves and a scum buddy to be immune from everything. It's the perfect way for scum to hide away a weak-link and/or lurker-type teammate from having to do anything at all. I imagine that if Rodney or Paul could have done that last game for BIET, they would have. Marshall is the perfect role for scum in every scenario I can think of, with the only drawback being investigative-immunity as a Godfather, since they'd likely want to be investigated instead.

In contrast, Mayor is good for scum in that it allows them another vote and the one insta-lynch (along with being bullet/investigation proof), but they still have to take the heat for who they lynch Day 1 and where they vote afterword. It's more powerful in the right hands I suppose, especially in the very late game, but it has major drawbacks for scum as well. It's almost suicidal for them I think, because how many days in a row will town allow a scum Mayor to fuck them over with mislynches before giving him the noose?

Okay, so I can potentially see two ways scum go about this: either scum go hard for both roles (and ultimately hoping for Marshall long-term) for the obvious benefits that will bring, and they blindly hope it doesn't get them lynched due to the inevitable heat that will come, or scum stay far away and hope for a few mistakes to happen that gets the mayor/marshall lynched, since they cannot be cleared by town PRs. If scum have any investigation-proof roles like Godfather, then it's likely better for them to stay away from either position, since they'd probably prefer to be investigated and 'cleared' while their buddies try getting elected, assuming they are experienced players. Inexperienced scum would likely not go for either role, leaving only the best scum players that aren't investigation-immune (Godfather, Ninja, Lawyer, Tailor, Banker, etc) going for it, and probably for Marshall rather than Mayor. Everyone else is probably town or third party. I will say that if there is an SK or other third-party role, they will go for broke to get one of these roles, because it's likely their best game-winning strategy. Again, Marshall would be the best role for them too.

So the way I see it, we can look at this from multiple angles. One is the obvious, which is that these roles are powerful enough for scum to want them, because the right town players getting them really makes scum's life miserable. That said, inexperienced scum would probably not go for it, because the spotlight will be on them regardless of the investigation-immunity, and they probably wouldn't be the ones a Vigilante or SK would go after for the bulletproof modifier to matter at all. This leaves the roles really worth it for only the best scum players (if the scum team contains them at least), any third-party role (either role is a dream come true for an SK), or townies that care more about being NK'd than being lynched, since being lynched is likely inevitable barring great results. Other than that, scum might go for them to play keepaway, but Mayor has way too many drawbacks for it to be worth it imo, and Marshall can just be considered an auto-lynch if the game gets near the endgame to remove any sort of vote manipulation.

Any thoughts?

From what I conclude, the people most willing to be elected need to be suspected as scum, me included for parity's sake. That said, it's likely only one among us are scum, unless Field put together an unlikely all-star scum cast (making two of them go for it), leaving everyone not going for it as possibilities in the 'inexperienced' scum pool. Right now, that pool should statistically contain more scum than the pool of players seeking election. If we assume balanced teams in terms of skill, then scum likely have one really experienced player who will go for broke to get Marshall, with the rest of the players as town or third party. I do all this with the assumption that inexperienced scum will stay on the sidelines, experienced scum will only go for the roles if they aren't the Godfather, and scum will try their best to actually stay away from the Mayor role unless they have balls of steel and/or are kind of dumb. I guess the last part depends on whether you view it a positive for scum to get one free insta-kill on town and possibly another mislynch or two before they find a noose around their own neck. I assume most experienced scum want to stay alive the entire game rather than possibly trade 1 for 1 and leave their team in shambles, but that's just me.

This means that the best lynch for Day 1 and maybe even in future days is someone not going for the election. If a scum player does win the election, it's bad, but only one of them will likely get a spot. If they get Mayor, they're eventually SOL due to their town mislynches, because they can't hide in the shadows. If they get Marshall, town can just set a rule to lynch the Marshall before LYLO (lynch scum or lose) to prevent any shenanigans taking away town votes. It doesn't even matter if they are scum or not at that point, because a bad Marshall removing a townie from voting/talking during the endgame is a liability that town mathematically can't afford, if it comes to that stage. It's a pretty easy solution I think. Going for either role is essentially suicide from how I see this playing out, leaving most of the scum team on the sidelines for their own good.

Oh, and all of this is assuming everything remains as it is on Day 2. Field did write [DAY 1 MECHANIC]rather than just [GAME MECHANIC], so it's possible there's a new mayor/marshall or something else entirely each day phase. If that's the case, then I have no idea what to do.

I'm quoting this to see if anyone else reads anything into this post from Exalt on day 1

[fiS]

it would have been odd if rodney went after voth or exalt due to bodyguard. i mean maybe he slipped his noodle and did, but it would be odd

Oh. I did indeed forget about the bodyguard.
But wouldn't the Bodyguard only be able to protect one of the both elected roles? So it would have been 50/50?

[Zeebu]

yeah miller is a pretty crap role. im ok with either missa or ixt next. i doubt that i get night killed since i claimed miller, its an easy thing to dig at in the future.i will not confirm or deny that i am the bodyguard though, and obviously no one else should either. voth appears to be likely town and due to the commuter aspect and presence of bodyguard, he is basically invincible. in order to kill him mafia has to find and kill the bodyguard one night and then role block and kill on a different night. seems like a pretty tall order.

more on the bodyguard, do not claim unless a lynch on you is inevitable. seriously, dont.

[Zeebu]

Bingo guys. Now that's a nice hit. But seriously, paul says the GF isn't an impactful role but consider this:
Exalt is a good mafia player (I would at least give him that) and really dangerous if anti town alligned.
GF is bulletproof and pops up innocent usually. I would think Rodney 1.0 even went to kill him at night one.
(Rodney please don't spoil the game for us by revealing your action because Rodney 1.0 is dead, I just want to let thoughts flow)
Making the Godfather Mayor is actually not really clever because he drew so much attention on him. I dunno what they were thinking.

it would have been odd if rodney went after voth or exalt due to bodyguard. i mean maybe he slipped his noodle and did, but it would be odd

[WillBy]

I apologize again for mobile disorganization.
What we know:
there was a scum plot to elect Exalt to an elected position. More on this in what I think.
someone in the push for exalt is mafia. I kind of doubt it's a straight list though.
I have about 0 doubt Voth is town, so it goes up here. And unless someone has privately counterclaimed to him, we have a pocket cop also.
we have a couple pretty good leads in ixt and missa, and some other interesting thought exercises in soild and zeebu.

What I think:
I doubt scurvy made a move to get exalt specifically elected mayor. While it's true that being a double voter is extremely powerful as mafia, Marshall would essentially get this same power if they held onto the jailing power. Prevent town voting and end game a day before everyone expects. Not saying it's impossible, that's just a big-brain play for questionable payoff. Like I believe fis mentioned, it was questionable to draw so much attention to godfather.
I still think zeebu is a big question mark. Miller? Seemed a little premature claim, but I guess you have to get ahead of it. Never considered how to play Miller as a role not a modifier.
ixt wants to die, which is very unlike his other games. Seems like a ploy. Exalt didnt lynch him, in fact defended him saying death wish behavior is a newbie town role. Just something to think about.
with all the town power roles we have, I'm not sleeping on this mafia. Something has to balance cop, doc, hide, vigi, and more

did I miss anything?

[Soilderz]

I keep having thoughts that this might actually be happening. Which is ironic, because I threw my hat into the Voth ring pretty early on and pretty definitively. If he really is in contact with a cop, then I don't know how we can do anything except follow him. The only way to dispute this is for the cop to come forward, which is suicide because our doctor is dead. The fact that these are the only options I see keep this nagging doubt in the back of my head that this could theoretically be happening. Honestly, if that was the case, then Exalt and especially Voth have played a basically perfect game so far.

Like you said, the odds are long that this did happen, but I've had this thought in the back of my head the entire game. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow with Voth's "contact"

Lol I read this and then fis' point about ixt playing differently than before, then I remember voth talking in day 1 how it feels like ixt has reigned in his play because he has someone coaching him in the mafia family. DUN DUN DUN......... It was voth all along. He is now ditching 2 of his scum buddies to get the ultimate trust from the towns side. Lol the long long long con.

[fiS]

Surely I'd also wait another night and the next day phase before making a final vote for the next day. Who knows. It's not set in stone with Missa just yet.

While I really feel like lynching ixt, something tells me he's town just again and fed up with not having any sort of night actions. It's really wierd how he changed his behavior though. Maybe he learned from previous games. I got no idea, but somehow he managed to stay alive the past games too and popped up to be town.

[the_paul]

I'm actually thinking that Voth is 99% town. Chances that both Mafia would be bussing each other I consider pretty low and secondly chances of two Mafia powerroles day 1 is also unlikely. However 1% doubt cuz never trust anyone.

I keep having thoughts that this might actually be happening. Which is ironic, because I threw my hat into the Voth ring pretty early on and pretty definitively. If he really is in contact with a cop, then I don't know how we can do anything except follow him. The only way to dispute this is for the cop to come forward, which is suicide because our doctor is dead. The fact that these are the only options I see keep this nagging doubt in the back of my head that this could theoretically be happening. Honestly, if that was the case, then Exalt and especially Voth have played a basically perfect game so far.

Like you said, the odds are long that this did happen, but I've had this thought in the back of my head the entire game. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow with Voth's "contact"

[Soilderz]

I'm actually thinking that Voth is 99% town. Chances that both Mafia would be bussing each other I consider pretty low and secondly chances of two Mafia powerroles day 1 is also unlikely. However 1% doubt cuz never trust anyone.

Undercut appears really townie to me too right now, just as WillBy 2.0.

My best shot for day 3 would be Missa but I will admit her defense when she replied to my questions was kinda legit.

Really you feel missa more likely than Rodney or ixt? I feel, like you said, she had ok excuses for her actions.

[fiS]

I'm actually thinking that Voth is 99% town. Chances that both Mafia would be bussing each other I consider pretty low and secondly chances of two Mafia powerroles day 1 is also unlikely. However 1% doubt cuz never trust anyone.

Undercut appears really townie to me too right now, just as WillBy 2.0.

My best shot for day 3 would be Missa but I will admit her defense when she replied to my questions was kinda legit.

[Soilderz]

Oh and forgot to add. Very much agree with voths statement about ixt and scurvy/rodney being mafia. Fits well with their actions as well as Exalts frustration about his gangs inactivty and inability.

[fiS]

I basically agree on your thoughts on scurvy but a. he only posted once and b. was his intention really giving Exalt Mayor with his one and only "just in time" post?
But yes, let's keep an eye on Rodney 2.0.

[Soilderz]

Well done by voth and willby (at least old willby lol) for getting on Exalt's case so soon. I died N1 last game so didn't have a chance to play with him extensively so didn't know much about his usual play style. Kudos.

I still stand by what I've done this whole game so far. I may have gotten more frustrated than normally, mainly because people were misintrepreting what I was saying and twisting my words. PS Yes I know that is a lot what mafia is about, get off my back. It was especially annoying when people who I felt was pro-town did it.

[fiS]

Bingo guys. Now that's a nice hit. But seriously, paul says the GF isn't an impactful role but consider this:
Exalt is a good mafia player (I would at least give him that) and really dangerous if anti town alligned.
GF is bulletproof and pops up innocent usually. I would think Rodney 1.0 even went to kill him at night one.
(Rodney please don't spoil the game for us by revealing your action because Rodney 1.0 is dead, I just want to let thoughts flow)
Making the Godfather Mayor is actually not really clever because he drew so much attention on him. I dunno what they were thinking.