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  • Greenspan Concedes Error on Regulation

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/bu...4panel.html?hp
    =============
    Originally posted by New York Times
    Facing a firing line of questions from Washington lawmakers, Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman once considered the infallible maestro of the financial system, admitted on Thursday that he “made a mistake” in trusting that free markets could regulate themselves without government oversight.

    A fervent proponent of deregulation during his 18-year tenure at the Fed’s helm, Mr. Greenspan has faced mounting criticism this year for having refused to consider cracking down on credit derivatives, an unchecked market whose excesses partly led to the current financial crisis.

    Although he defended the use of derivatives in general, Mr. Greenspan, who left office in 2006, told members of the House Committee of Government Oversight and Reform that he was “partially” wrong in not having tried to regulate the market for credit-default swaps.

    But in a tense exchange with Representative Henry A. Waxman, the California Democrat who is chairman of the committee, Mr. Greenspan conceded a more serious flaw in his own philosophy that unfettered free markets sit at the root of a superior economy.

    “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms,” Mr. Greenspan said.

    Referring to his free-market ideology, Mr. Greenspan added: “I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact.”

    Mr. Waxman pressed the former Fed chair to clarify his words. “In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right, it was not working,” Mr. Waxman said.

    “Absolutely, precisely,” Mr. Greenspan replied. “You know, that’s precisely the reason I was shocked, because I have been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.”

    The oversight committee is holding hearings to determine what gaps in the regulatory structure abetted the crisis that has roiled the world’s financial markets.

    Mr. Greenspan appeared alongside Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and John W. Snow, who served as secretary of the Treasury early in the Bush administration.

    In his prepared remarks, Mr. Greenspan said he was in “a state of shocked disbelief” about the breakdown in the ability of banks to regulate themselves. He also warned about the economic consequences of the crisis, saying that he “cannot see how we will avoid a significant rise in layoffs and unemployment.” Consumer spending will decline, too, he said, adding that a stabilization of home prices would be necessary to bring the crisis to its end.

    Saying that his thinking “has evolved” in the last year, Mr. Greenspan also defended his record. “In 2005, I raised concerns that the protracted period of underpricing of risk, if history was any guide, would have dire consequences,” he said. “This crisis, however, has turned out to be much broader than anything I could have imagined.”
    Imagine that.
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  • #2
    I can definitely imagine that a supposed "free-market" advocate, who chaired an institution Marx saw as vital to the eradication of capitalism, might have some... irregularities in his defense of his beliefs.
    NOSTALGIA IN THE WORST FASHION

    internet de la jerome

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    • #3
      Epi, I'd think you (and many others) would like a book I'm reading called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in late 2006. He places almost no value in economists as a group and I tend to agree with him so you know he makes a good argument

      A quote from the book that warns of an impending global bank crisis:

      Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks – when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur ….I shiver at the thought.

      The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of scientists deem these events "unlikely".



      Some information on his ideas:

      Taleb calls himself a "skeptical empiricist", and believes that scientists, economists, historians, policymakers, businessmen, and financiers are victims of an illusion of pattern; they overestimate the value of rational explanations of past data, and underestimate the prevalence of unexplainable randomness in that data. He follows a long lineage of skeptical philosophers, including Socrates, Sextus Empiricus, Al-Ghazali, Pierre Bayle, Montaigne, David Hume and Karl Popper in believing that we know much less than we think we do, and that the past should not be used naively to predict the future.

      Taleb now focuses on being a researcher in the philosophy of randomness and the role of uncertainty in science and society, with particular emphasis on the philosophy of history and the role of fortunate or unfortunate high-impact random events, which he calls "black swans", in determining the course of history.

      Taleb believes that most people ignore "black swans" because we are more comfortable seeing the world as something structured, ordinary, and comprehensible. Taleb calls this blindness the Platonic fallacy, and argues that it leads to three distortions:

      1. Narrative fallacy: creating a story post-hoc so that an event will seem to have an identifiable cause.

      2. Ludic fallacy: believing that the structured randomness found in games resembles the unstructured randomness found in life. Taleb faults random walk models and other inspirations of modern probability theory for this inadequacy.

      3. Statistical regress fallacy: believing that the structure of probability can be delivered from a set of data.

      He also believes that people are subject to the triplet of opacity, through which history is distilled even as current events are incomprehensible. The triplet of opacity consists of:

      1. an illusion of understanding of current events
      2. a retrospective distortion of historical events
      3. an overestimation of factual information, combined with an overvalue of the intellectual elite

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      • #4
        http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard192.html

        rothbard really hated greenspan before it was cool to hate greenspan

        EiG: that actually seems like an incredibly interesting book. I think the author was interviewed on the daily show or colbert a long time ago. In retrospect it looks like he critiques alot of things like econometric modeling, so I'll probably give it a whirl
        NOSTALGIA IN THE WORST FASHION

        internet de la jerome

        because the internet | hazardous

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        • #5
          Interesting book EiG... especially coming from an economist as yourself
          Epinephrine's History of Trench Wars:
          www.geocities.com/epinephrine.rm

          My anime blog:
          www.animeslice.com

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          • #6
            today's Arial-





            and older one that was pretty good too

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            .fffff\________/
            .fff/fffffff.ffffffff\
            .ff|ffffffff.fffffffff|
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            .ff\ffffffffffffffffff/
            .fff\__________/

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