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Conservatives Still Suck, NDP r0x ur s0x
So the Conservative party went up 5% capitalizing on the Liberals stealing $100 million bucks from Canadians. Hip Hip Horray for them! They are now resting at a whooping 24% nation wide!
Is this a step towards a Conservative government? Hell no. They'll be lucky to hold onto enough seats to maintain their status as official opposition. A 5% jump seems impressive but not if we put this in the historical context of the last 3 years.
Last election the Alliance got 25.5% of the vote, and PCs got 12.2%, for a total of 37.7%. Right now they are polling less than the Alliance got last election, never mind adding the PC vote.
Last election the Liberal's got 40.8%, they are now at 39%. Down 1.8%. Hardly a difference. Once Martin gets to debate with which hapless sap the Conservatives choose as a leader they Liberals will likely get right back up to 41% or higher.
The real story of the last few years isn't a "jump" in Conservative popularity (the right wing parties are actually down by 13.7%) it is the "jump" in NDP popularity. Last election they NDP got 8.5% of the vote, they have slowing been growing and now rest at 18%. Dead last, to be sure, but they only part that has made any gains at all, and they've been impressive. The NDP is 9.5% higher than they were in the last election. More than double their support before. The highest percentage of the vote the NDP has ever gotten is 21% which might be overtaken at this rate.
The truth is the Liberal party, which defines politics in Canada, has moved to the right. As that shift takes place it opens space up on the left for the NDP and takes away from potential Conversative support.
Don't expect the Conservatives to do better than last election. They can only do worse. The results will likely be a few less seats for the Liberals, a lot less for the Conservatives, and the NDP will likely win more than double what it did last time around.
Last election the Conservatives gobbled up seats as far east as Manitoba (big fucking deal, haha, but I'll pretend it was impressive) like they were candy. They are now polling dead last in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. They aren't even a western party anymore. Support for the Conservatives remains only in Alberta and BC (in BC it's a fairly close 3 way race with NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives all likely to take a piece of the pie).
In spite of this scandal, less and less Canadians are willing to support the Conservatives. Mainly because many of us (in Sask/Man) voted for them last time around (and the time before that) and we've regretted it for a few years now.
I can only speak for Saskatchewan, but what I've seen of the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives is not something that I approve of. Conservatives from Sask made national headlines twice. Pankiw and Spencer were both Conservative MPs that got caught expressing some scary views about homosexuality, racial minorities, and the like. Even my MP, (Maurice Vellacott, Conservative) is a complete whacko. He likely would have made national headlines had Pankiw and Spencer not drown out his lunacy.
Maurice mails me letters about God, homosexuality, and other things all the time. Being pro-God isn't a terrible thing in the eyes of most people, and many Saskatchewan people don't like homosexuality... However Conservatives don't seem to realize that not everyone in Sask is a member of a church group. They've been sending us letters for too long, thinking they're preaching to a Christian Congregation when really they are representing average Joes.
Sure, most people in Saskatchewan don't support same-sex marriage. Many of those same people, however, get a little scared when they get messages ranting about "Homosexuals are sinners" or "God doesn't approve of it". Who said anything about God? This isn't a church, this is my government! Constant talk about God and homosexuality has alienated the party from the mainstream to a point where the once mighty Reform/Alliance/Conservatives are now polling LAST in Sask/Man. 33% for Liberals, 33% for the NDP, and 23% for the Conservatives.
It's also interesting to look at the issues. Last election the Alliance got much of the vote in Saskatchewan even though a significant majority of Sask people want NO privatization of health care. The Alliance wanted lots of it.
Support for the Conservatives will be limited to Alberta and BC next time around, and I can't say I'll miss them.
It's notable that the NDP is ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec (8% v 5%) and close in Ontario (22% v 25%). Nationally Conservatives are well ahead of the NDP (18% v 24%), but if you take BC/ALTA out of the picture it's a dead heat. Look at the provincial breakdowns.
When the NDP held it's leadership race we did what we had to do.. We elected Jack Layton, someone who could break us into Quebec (we're at 8%, up from 2%) and Ontario (22%, up from 8.3%). We needed a leader to create excitment and get media attention.
The Conservatives watched as all their best chances for a good Pan-Canada leader dissapear. Bernard Lord, Mike Harris, and so on, nobody wanted to run. Now they have boring old Stephen Harper, whos been at the helm while the party has been dropping in the polls, Belinda Stronarch who has lots of money but is too afraid to debate (can you imagine Martin v Belinda v Jack Layton?? Belinda would look like a fish out of water) and Tony Clement whos made even less of a splash then Captain Boring himself (Mr. Harper). No matter what leader they'll choose, he/she will only continue to bleed support.
Good luck Conservatives, you'll need it.
So, putting the polling results in a bit of a historical perspective I think its clear the NDP has all the momentum, and the Conservatives have none.
Much will count on who wins the leadership of the Conservatives. I suspect the fact that 2 Ontario people are running has the Conservatives higher in Ontario than they otherwise would be. If Harper (from Alberta) wins then maybe the Conservatives would drop off a little more in Ontario. If they drop 3 or 4 percent the NDP will be second in Ontario, not good for the Conservatives.
The fact that the Alliance was the 'alternative' last time gave them lots of votes. It's less clear that is true now. The NDP is much higher than before and Conservatives are lower. With less of a gap, they look less like the unchallenge alternative. Canadians have a choice, finally!
If Martin gets things under control again he may yet get some of the right wing vote back. I think potential Liberal voters might have parked their vote with the Conservatives temporarly because they are pissed off. Martin has the potential to stem the growth of Conservatives, but the left wing doesn't like Martin with or without a scandal. The NDP will do nothing if not continue to grow.
About Ontario, last election we got only 1 seat, then won 1 or 2 more in byelections. We will likely also win Ottawa-Center (Ed Broadbents riding) and Toronto-Danforth (Jack Layton). Being up from 8.3% to 22%, its unlikely we will lose the seats we have already (Joe Comartin and some other guy I forgot). Thats 5 seats instead of 1, with more likely to come. Mahar Arars wife might run for the NDP in Ottawa, and she could likely win. Sheila Copps is talking about joining the NDP which could be another win. The NDP is polling good in the riding west of Mrs. Copps, that would also be a win. There will be much more of a buzz in Ontario this time around because the leader is running in Toronto, Broadbent is in Ottawa, we're polling much higher.. I can't wait to see what happens!!
Maybe we'll get a coalition government and get some real progress happening.
Is this a step towards a Conservative government? Hell no. They'll be lucky to hold onto enough seats to maintain their status as official opposition. A 5% jump seems impressive but not if we put this in the historical context of the last 3 years.
Last election the Alliance got 25.5% of the vote, and PCs got 12.2%, for a total of 37.7%. Right now they are polling less than the Alliance got last election, never mind adding the PC vote.
Last election the Liberal's got 40.8%, they are now at 39%. Down 1.8%. Hardly a difference. Once Martin gets to debate with which hapless sap the Conservatives choose as a leader they Liberals will likely get right back up to 41% or higher.
The real story of the last few years isn't a "jump" in Conservative popularity (the right wing parties are actually down by 13.7%) it is the "jump" in NDP popularity. Last election they NDP got 8.5% of the vote, they have slowing been growing and now rest at 18%. Dead last, to be sure, but they only part that has made any gains at all, and they've been impressive. The NDP is 9.5% higher than they were in the last election. More than double their support before. The highest percentage of the vote the NDP has ever gotten is 21% which might be overtaken at this rate.
The truth is the Liberal party, which defines politics in Canada, has moved to the right. As that shift takes place it opens space up on the left for the NDP and takes away from potential Conversative support.
Don't expect the Conservatives to do better than last election. They can only do worse. The results will likely be a few less seats for the Liberals, a lot less for the Conservatives, and the NDP will likely win more than double what it did last time around.
Last election the Conservatives gobbled up seats as far east as Manitoba (big fucking deal, haha, but I'll pretend it was impressive) like they were candy. They are now polling dead last in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. They aren't even a western party anymore. Support for the Conservatives remains only in Alberta and BC (in BC it's a fairly close 3 way race with NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives all likely to take a piece of the pie).
In spite of this scandal, less and less Canadians are willing to support the Conservatives. Mainly because many of us (in Sask/Man) voted for them last time around (and the time before that) and we've regretted it for a few years now.
I can only speak for Saskatchewan, but what I've seen of the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives is not something that I approve of. Conservatives from Sask made national headlines twice. Pankiw and Spencer were both Conservative MPs that got caught expressing some scary views about homosexuality, racial minorities, and the like. Even my MP, (Maurice Vellacott, Conservative) is a complete whacko. He likely would have made national headlines had Pankiw and Spencer not drown out his lunacy.
Maurice mails me letters about God, homosexuality, and other things all the time. Being pro-God isn't a terrible thing in the eyes of most people, and many Saskatchewan people don't like homosexuality... However Conservatives don't seem to realize that not everyone in Sask is a member of a church group. They've been sending us letters for too long, thinking they're preaching to a Christian Congregation when really they are representing average Joes.
Sure, most people in Saskatchewan don't support same-sex marriage. Many of those same people, however, get a little scared when they get messages ranting about "Homosexuals are sinners" or "God doesn't approve of it". Who said anything about God? This isn't a church, this is my government! Constant talk about God and homosexuality has alienated the party from the mainstream to a point where the once mighty Reform/Alliance/Conservatives are now polling LAST in Sask/Man. 33% for Liberals, 33% for the NDP, and 23% for the Conservatives.
It's also interesting to look at the issues. Last election the Alliance got much of the vote in Saskatchewan even though a significant majority of Sask people want NO privatization of health care. The Alliance wanted lots of it.
Support for the Conservatives will be limited to Alberta and BC next time around, and I can't say I'll miss them.
It's notable that the NDP is ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec (8% v 5%) and close in Ontario (22% v 25%). Nationally Conservatives are well ahead of the NDP (18% v 24%), but if you take BC/ALTA out of the picture it's a dead heat. Look at the provincial breakdowns.
When the NDP held it's leadership race we did what we had to do.. We elected Jack Layton, someone who could break us into Quebec (we're at 8%, up from 2%) and Ontario (22%, up from 8.3%). We needed a leader to create excitment and get media attention.
The Conservatives watched as all their best chances for a good Pan-Canada leader dissapear. Bernard Lord, Mike Harris, and so on, nobody wanted to run. Now they have boring old Stephen Harper, whos been at the helm while the party has been dropping in the polls, Belinda Stronarch who has lots of money but is too afraid to debate (can you imagine Martin v Belinda v Jack Layton?? Belinda would look like a fish out of water) and Tony Clement whos made even less of a splash then Captain Boring himself (Mr. Harper). No matter what leader they'll choose, he/she will only continue to bleed support.
Good luck Conservatives, you'll need it.
So, putting the polling results in a bit of a historical perspective I think its clear the NDP has all the momentum, and the Conservatives have none.
Much will count on who wins the leadership of the Conservatives. I suspect the fact that 2 Ontario people are running has the Conservatives higher in Ontario than they otherwise would be. If Harper (from Alberta) wins then maybe the Conservatives would drop off a little more in Ontario. If they drop 3 or 4 percent the NDP will be second in Ontario, not good for the Conservatives.
The fact that the Alliance was the 'alternative' last time gave them lots of votes. It's less clear that is true now. The NDP is much higher than before and Conservatives are lower. With less of a gap, they look less like the unchallenge alternative. Canadians have a choice, finally!
If Martin gets things under control again he may yet get some of the right wing vote back. I think potential Liberal voters might have parked their vote with the Conservatives temporarly because they are pissed off. Martin has the potential to stem the growth of Conservatives, but the left wing doesn't like Martin with or without a scandal. The NDP will do nothing if not continue to grow.
About Ontario, last election we got only 1 seat, then won 1 or 2 more in byelections. We will likely also win Ottawa-Center (Ed Broadbents riding) and Toronto-Danforth (Jack Layton). Being up from 8.3% to 22%, its unlikely we will lose the seats we have already (Joe Comartin and some other guy I forgot). Thats 5 seats instead of 1, with more likely to come. Mahar Arars wife might run for the NDP in Ottawa, and she could likely win. Sheila Copps is talking about joining the NDP which could be another win. The NDP is polling good in the riding west of Mrs. Copps, that would also be a win. There will be much more of a buzz in Ontario this time around because the leader is running in Toronto, Broadbent is in Ottawa, we're polling much higher.. I can't wait to see what happens!!
Maybe we'll get a coalition government and get some real progress happening.
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