TWDTJ/D finals prediction

[LeeRomeno]

What a weekend we have coming up this Sunday with what promises to be one of the highest quality wb final, at least while looking names on the teamsheets and completely unpredictable jav final between 2 teams that were perhaps not the biggest favorites in jav when the season started.

WB
Ironically both teams in finals are heavily supported by trades made by Tiny. While making predictions after draft, i considered Pure Luck alongside Force 2 biggest favorites in wb. Of course then tiny traded iron survivor to Racka, making this a 10/10 team as well, while also rainbow and beam moved to force, essentially weakening them for main season with beams 0 showups (as morph was given up in return) and a liability in playoffs (due to rainbow missing). Another key trade siaxis made was getting rojo for low vp. He was clearly an upgrade vs other available options, while racka also improved his line even more with dramatic offloading banzi/havok for lockdown/omega.
Both teams had bye in quarters and didnt have much issues winning their semifinals with force benefitting from debut games of this season by beam and raazi, refer and jz also getting minutes besides mainstays mythril/siaxis/rojo. Prime of course has their superstar lineup of racka/lockdown/iron/rasaq. Low star position was held at the beginning of league by spirit, but midway mysterious source appeared and hasnt looked back, doing numbers usually 8/8.5 star players have in games.

So what do expect from this game?
Prime will most probably go into game with 46* (highest aswell since vps were used in draft league, like power in base) rating, adding source playing at least 1 vp below his level, we can look at 47* team here.
Force is not without answers though. Mythril, siaxis, beam and rainbow are all very experienced wb players combining with 7* rojo to 44.5 total vps, which would be also record high, if it werent for Prime.
I ran data via AI modelling and here are results:
Prime is the predicted winner.

• Prime holds the advantage in all three major performance indicators, for example:
• Prime's average Kills Per Death (KPD) is 1.408, meaning their players secure 1.4 kills for every death.
• Force's average KPD is 1.202. This substantial difference of +0.206 KPD indicates that Prime's lineup is much more efficient and will consistently win most 1v1 and team engagements, allowing them to gain and maintain map control.
• Both teams share a similar profile in terms of how they get their kills, with the majority coming from medium-range (R2).
• Force's Strength (Strategic Play): Force maintains a slight edge in strategic kills (%R3: 19.24% vs. 18.55%), confirming their reliance on high-skill, off-screen shots.
• Prime's Strength (Variance/Aggression): Prime has a higher percentage of very long-range kills (%R4: 2.29% vs. 1.40%) and a slightly higher overall average KPM (0.834 vs. 0.820), suggesting a more proactive and higher-variance playstyle.
• The slight KPM difference shows that Prime is also marginally more aggressive, securing more kills per minute of play.
• Force's Best Chance: The Force lineup relies on the individual brilliance of high-skill players like MythriL and Rainbow Seeker, their path to victory is likely a more tactical, calculated style of play.
• Prime's Consistency: Prime's collective statistical superiority means they are better positioned to win standard, head-to-head engagements. Their slightly higher long-range kill percentage (R4) also gives them a minor advantage in unpredictable moment

So, AI has spoken and i agree. Prime is favorite, but data doesnt have beam in it. So the x factor is beam, his performance in finals (if he shows). So my prediction is Prime to win 2-1.

JAV
Javelin finals see pwned making their second finals appearance against terrorist, who at least midway through the season was much more likely to feature in base finals, but getting a win from this dt is still very well achievable for dreamwin. Both teams clearly also celebrated in silence as Monster and Pure Luck (both teams looking dangerous in jav) did not make it to playoffs and Dice without temu was eliminated in playoffs. Terrorist jav season really only kicked off in second part of league after trading Havok to team. This brough clear upgrade from lockdown/zizu, who were used before and terrorist started winning games. They did it so well that secured bye for quarters, while power had no real chance against them in semis.
Pwned was solid but not spectacular team in main season. It was very rare for them to win 2 games during weekend (only happened once), but they never also left a weekend without a win. They also got pretty lucky in playoffs, first matching up against Force, clearly weakest team in main season and then getting Dice in semis, who was missing temu, key piece to their success.
So terrorist looks like to be favorite in this one.

We will most probably see dreamwin, havok, autopilot, maketso and captain lonestar in terrorist lineup, making up 43.5*. Solid team focused on teamwork and excellent individual skills. Pwned comes against them with turban, commodo, hercules, creature and captor, making up 42*, but captor isnt really 6* player, 7 for sure, so vp wise teams look pretty equal. Pwned of course has that wild turban element, if he goes off, he can decide the game alone, so perhaps top ceiling is higher for pwned, but on average, terrorist has been more solid for entire season. Lets see how AI solves this puzzle:

Terrorist is the predicted winner of the final against pwned nl.

1. Superior Combat Efficiency (KPD)
   • Terrorist's average Kills Per Death (KPD) is 1.09, compared to pwned nl's 1.03. While the margin is smaller than in the previous analysis, it indicates that Terrorist's lineup is statistically more likely to win individual engagements, providing a crucial edge in map control and resource management.
2. Playstyle Profile: Terrorist is Close-Range & Strategic
   • Close/Strategic Focus: Terrorist relies heavily on close-range kills (%R1: 35.68%) and strategic, high-skill kills (%R3: 16.30%). They have a clear strength in close-quarters combat and map awareness.
   • pwned nl's Aggressive/Mid-Range Style: pwned nl is notably more aggressive, leading in average Kills Per Minute (KPM: 0.63 vs 0.54), and concentrates more kills in the medium-range (%R2: 47.02%). Their path to victory relies on sustained aggression and winning standard mid-range fights.

In summary, Terrorist has a proven history of success, superior combat efficiency, and a powerful ability to close out rounds, making them the clear favorite. pwned nl's best chance lies in leveraging their higher aggression (KPM) and forcing mid-range fights to neutralize Terrorist's superior close-range and strategic ability.

Key Players

• autopilot (1.32 KPD): The team's most efficient player. They are the anchor in terms of combat efficiency, consistently getting more kills than deaths.
• Turban (1.42 KPD, High KPM): The team's statistical backbone and most aggressive threat. Turban is the most efficient individual player across both lineups.

Last but not least, AIs recommendations for team captains:

1. Exploit Playstyle Strengths (R1 & R3): Terrorist must force the game into environments where their strengths lie. This means:
   • Prioritizing close-range engagements (R1) where they have a high percentage of kills.
   • Capitalizing on strategic radar shots (R3) by using superior map awareness and positioning.
2. Maintain KPD and KO Advantage: The core players (autopilot, maketso) need to perform at or above their average KPD of 1.30+ to ensure pwned nl cannot gain map control. The team must convert more of their kills into Kill Offs (KOs) to replicate their strong season performance in securing eliminations.
3. Neutralize Turban: Turban is pwned nl's most aggressive and efficient player. Terrorist must dedicate resources to shutting down Turban's high-KPM playmaking ability to prevent the opposition from gaining momentum.

1. Turban Must Carry: Turban needs to have a career-defining performance, capitalizing on their high KPD and KPM to constantly pressure the Terrorist backline. Turban must single-handedly win 1v1 engagements to compensate for the team's overall lower collective KPD.
2. Force Mid-Range Battles (R2): pwned nl must avoid the close-range and strategic fights where Terrorist excels. They must try to keep engagements in the medium-range (R2), where the statistical difference between the two teams is minimal, and pwned nl's higher KPM can be most effectively utilized.
3. Aggressiveness into KOs: pwned nl has a higher average KPM (aggressiveness) but a much lower total KO count. The team must focus on turning their aggression into secured eliminations (KOs) to avoid simply trading kills with the more efficient Terrorist squad. They must use their high KPM to overwhelm the opponent and secure the final kill.

My prediction is similar. Terrorist to win 2-1.