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Since everyone seemed to get so upset over my predictions on the actual TWL site (and my two wrong predictions), I will post them here on Rasaq's most humble request. If you don't like it, I don't care! If you do, then I might do them every week if I have time. I woke up early and can't go back to sleep, so there is nothing else to do at 5:30 am right now. So... here it goes!
Ok, I'll give my POSSIBLE lines for each team, and then what I think the outcome will be. I don't know for sure what the lines will be, because I'm not the captain for any of your squads, so don't emo on me if your name isn't there. If I'm wrong on the lineups, just correct me, and I'll edit it. Deal?
Paladen vs Asians: 50-48
Paladen's Line?: Aerin, Claushouse, Informant, Jessup, Rainbow Seeker SUBS: Phyre, Esau, Ressurrected, Jebass
Asian's Line?: MITB, Moto Trucker, Oranje, Wage, Zagis SUBS: Rookie, Speedkillz, Morin
This might be the game of the week, because it has two up and coming squads, both with a lot of potential, and both are pretty much evenly matched in skill. Asians had a HUGE upset vs Fierce in week 1, while Paladen gave Pandora a run for their money, and probably could have won if they didn't sub out Aerin. While Asians did pull out the win vs a very good Fierce squad, I do think it was sort of a fluke, and I liked what I saw in Paladen's potential in week 1. I didn't watch the Asians game, but I did look at the final results, and I have a few question marks. First off, Fierce added their benchers in that game, and none of the real starters played. Also, Fierce is a VERY rusty squad. Those players have such a huge ego, that they thought they could log in for the first time in a month on Sunday and win vs an Asians squad that dds literally every day. Asians proved practice is more valuable than ego, but Paladen are not the rusty Fierce benchers. If Paladen didn't sub Aerin out vs Pandora, they probably would have won, simply because Aerin was the momentum setter for them. Aerin later told me that he was subbed out simply for his rec (which was like 4-7), which was a terrible move on whoever did it. I'd like to tell this to the Paladen captains: Rec doesn't mean everything. Aerin was the one who was pushing for you, and Pandora moving backwards is not as deadly as pushing the forward key. As soon as you subbed out Aerin, you lost the lead and the game. I'm going to assume Paladen doesn't make that mistake again, and they pull out a VERY close win vs an Asians team that pulled out a good upset vs Fierce. Simply put, I think Paladen has a better team, despite the upset. I still give Asian's props however, and this game could go either way very easily.
Penetrate vs Fierce: 42-50
Penetrate's lineup?: Bacon, Brokenfist/BrokenModem, Minotar, Veloce, Zhou SUBS: Acidbomber, Eria, Trasher
Fierce's SHOULD BE lineup? Apok, Racka, Kyou, Deez Nuts, Skepsis SUBS: Vash, Weak, Unabled, Geio
Fierce's bench linup that shows up?: Deez nuts, Skepsis, Vys?, Unabled, Weak SUBS: Vash, some random scrubs
The big question mark in this game is what Fierce squad will show up Sunday? Will it be the benchers that are just as rusty as the starters, and yet aren't as skilled, or will it be the starters, very rusty, but might be able to overcome that rust with enough skill to pull out a victory vs squads like Penetrate? This is a big if. Either way, Fierce needs to start logging in and practicing, because they won't make playoffs if they continue to log in only on Sundays and not show up their starting lineup. I like guys like Weak and Vash, but neither are very good when they don't play everyday. Vys is on a low res laptop, and he clearly isn't the same player as he could be with a normal desktop, and I'm not sure he will even show up very much this season. Deez/Skepsis/Unabled are all good 10 kill players, but even they are easily beatable when rusty. I know guys like Apok aren't very good when they don't play every day as well. There isn't much to say in this one, because despite who shows up for Fierce, and despite how rusty they are, their overall skill level just completely overshadows an upstart Penetrate squad that is just happy to be playing in LD at all. I'm glad to see fresh blood in LD, even if they are basers, but I don't see them winning this one. Fierce simply CANNOT afford to lose this game, because the competition only gets harder after their first three weeks vs Asians/Penetrate/Paladen. If Fierce doesn't get at least 2 wins out of those 3, they are in jeopardy of not even making the playoffs. Penetrate will not be a playoff squad, so I'm going with the obvious favorite here.
Freebie vs Sk8: 45- 50
Freebie's Lineup?: Burg, Hermit, saetep, beam, Kid Kaos/Sphinktor/Ricko/Chuckle SUBS: Whoever shows out of those listed
Sk8's Lineup?: Burnt, Ease, Scoop, High Templar, B4sERmaN36_X SUBS: Vitja, Obi, Fujiwara, Creature
This could be a very close game, but sk8's experience will win out in this one. Sk8 2.0/Thunder 5.0 should be able to win this game with little worry, but Freebie isn't a squad to overlook. They can either be very very bad, or very very good. It all depends on how they click as a team, and how well each player is playing that day. A lot of players on Freebie are inconsistent, one game going 5-10 across the board, and another game all getting 12-5 type recs. It all really depends on how they play to decide how close this will be. I still will pick the favorite sk8 in this, but I won't say it will be a blowout by any means. Freebie has a chance to get the upset, but the players REALLY need to step up for this one. The usual excuses will be "If I was 100%, I am a top 5 wb in tw" type of crap, but the reality is, that player hasn't been 100% in 10 years then. There comes a time when you have to stop saying if you were 100% or not, and either work your way back to that, or just accept your skill level for what it is. The outcome of this game could very well be decided on how you decide to take that question, and how hard you work to prove you are as good as you think.
Syne vs Pandora: 46-50
Syne's Lineup: Auger(Rasaq), Paky Dude (MONST3R?), Esau, Golden Duck, Harder SUBS: B Roy, Quart, Empion
Pandora: Mythril, CLARK KENTaro, Sir Spider, Lasenza, Exalt/Money SUBS: Jaa, Oops, Exalt or Money, Casket, Devilish
Syne had a 'slight' upset win over Savanger, while Pandora beat Paladen in a very unconvincing fashion. Paladen was actually ahead most of the game, and Pandora did not look very good in their teaming. Most of the players did not step up until Aerin got subbed out, which leads me to believe Paladen could have possibly won if Aerin was never subbed. This is a questionable theory, but it is still an alarming one. Simply put, Pandora could have been on the losing end of a HUGE upset, while Syne proved they aren't as bad as I originally thought. Syne's core lineup of Rasaq, Paky Dude, Golden Duck and a couple other scrubs really is not very good, and I don't expect them to pull the upset vs Pandora. Pandora has MULTIPLE lineups, and Mythril wants to play everyone, so the lineup isn't exactly a static thing for them. Exalt hasn't played in about 2 months or so, and his first game back was the Preseason game, and so he was benched for "fresher/unrusty" players this week. I don't think it will continue to happen, but I added a / mark in the starter section next to mine and money's name. Despite that, if Mythril adds the best lineup possible, and Pandora plays up to their potential, this will be an easy win. Syne simply doesn't have the skill or the firepower to outmatch players like Mythril and company when the game is on the line. I don't predict Syne will dissolve after this game, because it usually takes around 4 or 5 games for them to do it, but I still will stick by that eventual prediction. Once Syne realizes they won't make playoffs, Deadly Divas will be welcomed to TWL as the new replacement squad.
Sweet vs Savanger: 50-45
Sweet's Lineup?: A2m, Regen, Riverside, Jones, Dak SUBS: sacra, Vicarious, duclover, whoever actually shows up
Savanger's Lineup?: Peru, Sarrow, Welt, Misled, Yakuza SUBS: FST, Zapata, Keith, Darza
Sweet had a convincing win against Freebie week 1, while Savanger lost to a below average Syne squad in a slight upset. Savanger lost, but they didn't have their best players by FAR playing in that game. Peru and Sarrow were both nowhere to be found, and they are the lifeblood of that squad. Without those two, and Savanger really has no chance. With those two, and Savanger has a chance to really pull out a few upsets this season. It all really matters on if their captains actually bother to show up. None of them did Week 1, and it cost them a game they were supposed to win. Hopefully, Savanger will not make the same mistakes again in Week 2, and Sarrow/Peru will show up and make things interesting. Otherwise, I expect sweet to have a blowout win. I'd like to actually see a good game however, so here's hoping they do. Either way, Peru isn't enough to carry an entire squad and win this game by himself. Sarrow is capable of getting 10 kills, but he also dies out first before any other player on either team, and he does it in 30 seconds. He severely cripples his team in most games, because they are then forced to play 4v5 for almost the ENTIRE game. Now that I think about it, Savanger probably has a better chance if Sarrow DOESN'T play. Usually, sarrow will get 8 or 9 kills, but he will die out in 30 seconds. That isn't good enough in TWL, and it's why Savanger has never done anything throughout the years. Savanger lives and dies by Sarrow learning how to wb, and he hasn't done it effectively in 5+ years. I don't expect a different outcome in this game than last week, sorry Peru!
So far, I'm 3-2 in my LD predictions (I got the Syne-Savanger and Fierce-Asians games wrong).
That means I'm at 60% for the week. I'm gonna keep track week to week of my pick record and percentage for the season. We'll see what I get by the end of it, assuming I continue to write these! If I get a shit ton of negative feedback, then obviously I won't.
Ok, I'll give my POSSIBLE lines for each team, and then what I think the outcome will be. I don't know for sure what the lines will be, because I'm not the captain for any of your squads, so don't emo on me if your name isn't there. If I'm wrong on the lineups, just correct me, and I'll edit it. Deal?
Paladen vs Asians: 50-48
Paladen's Line?: Aerin, Claushouse, Informant, Jessup, Rainbow Seeker SUBS: Phyre, Esau, Ressurrected, Jebass
Asian's Line?: MITB, Moto Trucker, Oranje, Wage, Zagis SUBS: Rookie, Speedkillz, Morin
This might be the game of the week, because it has two up and coming squads, both with a lot of potential, and both are pretty much evenly matched in skill. Asians had a HUGE upset vs Fierce in week 1, while Paladen gave Pandora a run for their money, and probably could have won if they didn't sub out Aerin. While Asians did pull out the win vs a very good Fierce squad, I do think it was sort of a fluke, and I liked what I saw in Paladen's potential in week 1. I didn't watch the Asians game, but I did look at the final results, and I have a few question marks. First off, Fierce added their benchers in that game, and none of the real starters played. Also, Fierce is a VERY rusty squad. Those players have such a huge ego, that they thought they could log in for the first time in a month on Sunday and win vs an Asians squad that dds literally every day. Asians proved practice is more valuable than ego, but Paladen are not the rusty Fierce benchers. If Paladen didn't sub Aerin out vs Pandora, they probably would have won, simply because Aerin was the momentum setter for them. Aerin later told me that he was subbed out simply for his rec (which was like 4-7), which was a terrible move on whoever did it. I'd like to tell this to the Paladen captains: Rec doesn't mean everything. Aerin was the one who was pushing for you, and Pandora moving backwards is not as deadly as pushing the forward key. As soon as you subbed out Aerin, you lost the lead and the game. I'm going to assume Paladen doesn't make that mistake again, and they pull out a VERY close win vs an Asians team that pulled out a good upset vs Fierce. Simply put, I think Paladen has a better team, despite the upset. I still give Asian's props however, and this game could go either way very easily.
Penetrate vs Fierce: 42-50
Penetrate's lineup?: Bacon, Brokenfist/BrokenModem, Minotar, Veloce, Zhou SUBS: Acidbomber, Eria, Trasher
Fierce's SHOULD BE lineup? Apok, Racka, Kyou, Deez Nuts, Skepsis SUBS: Vash, Weak, Unabled, Geio
Fierce's bench linup that shows up?: Deez nuts, Skepsis, Vys?, Unabled, Weak SUBS: Vash, some random scrubs
The big question mark in this game is what Fierce squad will show up Sunday? Will it be the benchers that are just as rusty as the starters, and yet aren't as skilled, or will it be the starters, very rusty, but might be able to overcome that rust with enough skill to pull out a victory vs squads like Penetrate? This is a big if. Either way, Fierce needs to start logging in and practicing, because they won't make playoffs if they continue to log in only on Sundays and not show up their starting lineup. I like guys like Weak and Vash, but neither are very good when they don't play everyday. Vys is on a low res laptop, and he clearly isn't the same player as he could be with a normal desktop, and I'm not sure he will even show up very much this season. Deez/Skepsis/Unabled are all good 10 kill players, but even they are easily beatable when rusty. I know guys like Apok aren't very good when they don't play every day as well. There isn't much to say in this one, because despite who shows up for Fierce, and despite how rusty they are, their overall skill level just completely overshadows an upstart Penetrate squad that is just happy to be playing in LD at all. I'm glad to see fresh blood in LD, even if they are basers, but I don't see them winning this one. Fierce simply CANNOT afford to lose this game, because the competition only gets harder after their first three weeks vs Asians/Penetrate/Paladen. If Fierce doesn't get at least 2 wins out of those 3, they are in jeopardy of not even making the playoffs. Penetrate will not be a playoff squad, so I'm going with the obvious favorite here.
Freebie vs Sk8: 45- 50
Freebie's Lineup?: Burg, Hermit, saetep, beam, Kid Kaos/Sphinktor/Ricko/Chuckle SUBS: Whoever shows out of those listed
Sk8's Lineup?: Burnt, Ease, Scoop, High Templar, B4sERmaN36_X SUBS: Vitja, Obi, Fujiwara, Creature
This could be a very close game, but sk8's experience will win out in this one. Sk8 2.0/Thunder 5.0 should be able to win this game with little worry, but Freebie isn't a squad to overlook. They can either be very very bad, or very very good. It all depends on how they click as a team, and how well each player is playing that day. A lot of players on Freebie are inconsistent, one game going 5-10 across the board, and another game all getting 12-5 type recs. It all really depends on how they play to decide how close this will be. I still will pick the favorite sk8 in this, but I won't say it will be a blowout by any means. Freebie has a chance to get the upset, but the players REALLY need to step up for this one. The usual excuses will be "If I was 100%, I am a top 5 wb in tw" type of crap, but the reality is, that player hasn't been 100% in 10 years then. There comes a time when you have to stop saying if you were 100% or not, and either work your way back to that, or just accept your skill level for what it is. The outcome of this game could very well be decided on how you decide to take that question, and how hard you work to prove you are as good as you think.
Syne vs Pandora: 46-50
Syne's Lineup: Auger(Rasaq), Paky Dude (MONST3R?), Esau, Golden Duck, Harder SUBS: B Roy, Quart, Empion
Pandora: Mythril, CLARK KENTaro, Sir Spider, Lasenza, Exalt/Money SUBS: Jaa, Oops, Exalt or Money, Casket, Devilish
Syne had a 'slight' upset win over Savanger, while Pandora beat Paladen in a very unconvincing fashion. Paladen was actually ahead most of the game, and Pandora did not look very good in their teaming. Most of the players did not step up until Aerin got subbed out, which leads me to believe Paladen could have possibly won if Aerin was never subbed. This is a questionable theory, but it is still an alarming one. Simply put, Pandora could have been on the losing end of a HUGE upset, while Syne proved they aren't as bad as I originally thought. Syne's core lineup of Rasaq, Paky Dude, Golden Duck and a couple other scrubs really is not very good, and I don't expect them to pull the upset vs Pandora. Pandora has MULTIPLE lineups, and Mythril wants to play everyone, so the lineup isn't exactly a static thing for them. Exalt hasn't played in about 2 months or so, and his first game back was the Preseason game, and so he was benched for "fresher/unrusty" players this week. I don't think it will continue to happen, but I added a / mark in the starter section next to mine and money's name. Despite that, if Mythril adds the best lineup possible, and Pandora plays up to their potential, this will be an easy win. Syne simply doesn't have the skill or the firepower to outmatch players like Mythril and company when the game is on the line. I don't predict Syne will dissolve after this game, because it usually takes around 4 or 5 games for them to do it, but I still will stick by that eventual prediction. Once Syne realizes they won't make playoffs, Deadly Divas will be welcomed to TWL as the new replacement squad.
Sweet vs Savanger: 50-45
Sweet's Lineup?: A2m, Regen, Riverside, Jones, Dak SUBS: sacra, Vicarious, duclover, whoever actually shows up
Savanger's Lineup?: Peru, Sarrow, Welt, Misled, Yakuza SUBS: FST, Zapata, Keith, Darza
Sweet had a convincing win against Freebie week 1, while Savanger lost to a below average Syne squad in a slight upset. Savanger lost, but they didn't have their best players by FAR playing in that game. Peru and Sarrow were both nowhere to be found, and they are the lifeblood of that squad. Without those two, and Savanger really has no chance. With those two, and Savanger has a chance to really pull out a few upsets this season. It all really matters on if their captains actually bother to show up. None of them did Week 1, and it cost them a game they were supposed to win. Hopefully, Savanger will not make the same mistakes again in Week 2, and Sarrow/Peru will show up and make things interesting. Otherwise, I expect sweet to have a blowout win. I'd like to actually see a good game however, so here's hoping they do. Either way, Peru isn't enough to carry an entire squad and win this game by himself. Sarrow is capable of getting 10 kills, but he also dies out first before any other player on either team, and he does it in 30 seconds. He severely cripples his team in most games, because they are then forced to play 4v5 for almost the ENTIRE game. Now that I think about it, Savanger probably has a better chance if Sarrow DOESN'T play. Usually, sarrow will get 8 or 9 kills, but he will die out in 30 seconds. That isn't good enough in TWL, and it's why Savanger has never done anything throughout the years. Savanger lives and dies by Sarrow learning how to wb, and he hasn't done it effectively in 5+ years. I don't expect a different outcome in this game than last week, sorry Peru!
So far, I'm 3-2 in my LD predictions (I got the Syne-Savanger and Fierce-Asians games wrong).
That means I'm at 60% for the week. I'm gonna keep track week to week of my pick record and percentage for the season. We'll see what I get by the end of it, assuming I continue to write these! If I get a shit ton of negative feedback, then obviously I won't.
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