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TWLB Mid-season report
Five weeks have passed in TWLB season 9. Squads predicted to do great are doing bad. And squads predicted to fall on their faces are proving otherwise.
Let's look back at PaulOakenFolds predictions for the TWLB regular season. Not because they were so accurate, but because Paul was the only one who took the effort to make well thought of estimates of all TWLB squads. Let's keep one thing clear. The goal of this thread is not to bash on Paul for where he was wrong. The goal is to use his predictions as a starting point to provoke a discussion about past and future performances of all squads. So thanks Paul and I hope you don't mind me using your work.
In the following you'll read Pauls original predictions, with some extra comments added by myself. The current stats have been added in bold behind each squadname.
1. Dice 10-0, (5-0) : Dice has the possibility of owning the regular season. They have a very tough schedule ahead of them with 4 weeks they'll have to pay close attention to, including their first week vs Spastic.
Dice did what most expected them to do, go 5-0. Spastic was indeed their toughest customer but didn't have what it takes to overthrow. Good prediction here. 10-0 defenatly seems within Dice's reach. Top contented number 1.
2. Anti-Scrub 9-1, (3-2) : I'm optomistic about A-S' season, they have 3 weeks that they'll have to watch out for. They have an opportunity to either go 7-3 this season to 10-0. With A-S, you never know anymore.
Paul wasn't the only one who got disappointed by AS's performance this season. So far Anti-Scrub has gone 3-2, losing to Disoblige and Syndicate. Ofcourse there's no shame in losing to these two obviously hot squads. But didn't we expect Anti-Scrub to have the edge over Disoblige and Syndicate? I know i did.
3. Pandora 9-1, (2-2) : These guys held the top spot on the TWBD ladder longer than any squad this off-season, and for good reason. They may have played game after game, but they played against great teams and had an amazing amount of wins. Pandora has an easy schedule ahead of them, but they have to watch out for 3 distinct games.
Pandora currently has a 2-2 rec (with the game vs. Sk8 moved to be replayed in week 11). Seems like being big in TWD doesn't mean the same for TWL. However, just like AS, Pandora has its two losses against 2 of the three undefeated squads. No shame here and they might go ahead and win every game they play from here on. But a top contender for the title Pandor is defenatly not.
4. Syndicate 9-1, (5-0) : Out of the top 5 teams, Syndicate has the easiest schedule. These guys have been a bit iffy lately, perhaps beacuse of the lack of fireballz or the lack of games and activity.
Syndicate is doing better than we expected. Going 5-0 and beating squads like Final and AS is not easy. For the rest of the season looks like they only have Disoblige and Pandora to watch out for. 10-0 is defenatly possible. Top contender number 2.
5. Spastic 8-2, (3-2) : Being in the easier conference, Spastic has a fairly easy schedule. We have been iffy as well lately, but we have picked up a few promising spider recruits, something that our activity generally enjoys. We do have a couple of iffy games, and could end up with a record of 6-4 if we don't play the top of our game.
Spastic currently has a 3-2 rec. Looks like Pauls prediction still stands. Spastic losing to Sk8 however is something that surprised me. Anti-Scrub coming up next week. A crucial game for Spastic which will decide if we can still consider Spastic a serious contentder for the title.
6. -Final- 7-3, (3-2) : I'd say that although -Final- doesn't have to face Dice, they have a fairly tough schedule ahead of them this season. -Final- had an absolutely OUTSTAND first pre-season game vs Anti-Scrub, but had an embarassing second game vs Spastic. These guys could very well do a lot better than a record of 7-3.
Final also lost 2 games already, to Syndicate and Spastic. With Pandora and Disoblige coming up, play offs arent a sure thing yet. Final looks less resistant this season compared to last. They still guarantee excitement for every twlb game they play.
7.BasingCrew 6-4, (2-3) : These guys have a solid and challenging schedule ahead of them. They'll have to be on top of their game for 80% of the games they play in order to make playoffs this season. I have a lot of faith in these guys, for they've been fairly impressive lately. An impressive first game against a top notch team without Ajaxee terring for them, and a pretty good start to a canceled game, that even from the couple of minutes viewed, looked to have been able to go either way.
With 3 losses on the scoreboards and Dice, Disoblige and Spastic coming up, BasingCrew is looking at a tough job to reach play offs. Sure they're active and prooved to be a consistent squad in TWBD. But just like last season it seems that BasingCrew isn't ready yet to roll with the big boys.
8. Sk8 5-5, (3-1) : Wow you guys have quite a trip ahead of you. Good luck. Right in the middle of the pack you go fellas, and what a fitting record to be the middle team. Week 1 should be a nice way to begin the season for you guys, but I'm afraid it's not much of a walk in the park from there on.
Sk8 is playing better than expected. With 3 wins in the bank, of which one against Spastic, Sk8 is playing hard. Second half of the season is gonna be tough for them though. But an upset against one of the big three defenatly seems within their capabilities.
9. Disoblige 4-6, (5-0) : I almost feel bad giving you guys such a crappy record. For many of us, you'll always be rememered for season 5 and TWT performances, but alas, you are a mere shadow of that great basing team. You guys definitely have the potential to pull a positive rec this season, but I'm just not seeing it right now.
This is probably the only prediction in which Paul really got it wrong. Disoblige is undefeated untill now and I'm sure most of us didn't expect that. Week 6 will be the game to watch when they test their strenght with Syndicate. Seems like Disoblige is back and claiming a serious shot at the title. Top contender number 3
10. Slam 4-6, (2-3) : New group of guys, have some older basers thrown in there, some good, some not so good. They have a pretty tough schedule ahead of them, but like Diso, have the potential and the opportunity to get above that .500 mark.
Two wins, 3 losses, Slam isn't doing that bad for their first TWLB season. They lost to squads bigger and better than them and will probably do so a couple of times more in the weeks to come. Defenatly no play off material but worthy of a place in the league.
11. Ancients 3-7, (3-2) : They looked pretty decent the first TWBD tournament, slipped up in the second, and had a crushing defeat against Sk8 in the second week pre-season match. Not looking promissing for playoff hopes guys. Who knows, maybe you'll suprise us all.
Ancients is with Sk8 another squad that's playing a lot better than we expected. Looks like when duelers set their mind to basing they usually do it better than the average basingsquad. Why is that? I don't know. Ancients will probably land 5th or 6th this season. But just like Sk8 they have the potential to upset. If they manage to catch one of the big teams with a slightly weaker line up, they'll be a handful.
12. Passion 3-7, (1-4) : Congratulations you had a perfect pre-season, but it's a shame that the two squads you beat, are also a part of your 3 wins. I don't think anyone expects much from these guys, but perhaps they like it that way. The last of the bubble squads.
Passion will probably do a bit worse than predicted, having lost all games except vs. Shinobi. There is hower one big difference between Passion and Shinobi, and that's..the Passion?
13. Pirates 2-8, (2-3) : Nothing too impressive here. They could pull a win or two, or could very well go 0-10, but not playoff contenders I'm afraid.
Pirates aren't doing great, but they're not falling on their faces either. They're winning the games they were expected to win and doing it with style. One or two wins more? It's possible so go for it!
14. Teks 1-9, (0-5) : And here we have Teks, the underdogs of last season and this season. Last time they played in the leagues they were a shoe-in and suprised many people. The competition this year is a bit higher, so I don't expect that to happen again. Not quite a bubble team, but they definitely have some bite to them.
Looks like week 6 will be Teks moment of sunshine. Again an accurate prediction by Paul. 1-9 is very likely to happen.
15. Camisade 1-9, (0-5) : If Diso is a mere shadow of their past team, Camisade is their old team, but thrown into a room full of plastic balls with the lights off.
Camisade is losing everything and is losing everything pretty bad. Sad story those plastic balls but it's the truth. The way it looks now, the only game in which they'll stand a chance is Shinobi.
16. Shinobi 0-10, 0-5 : The dirty asshole of our basing league. They seem like a nice enough group of guys, and I recognize a couple of old warbird veterans, but in regards to basing, they just don't cut it. They replaced GV because of some issues, but are definitely not up to the par of GV (who probably would have had a season similar to Sk8).
Shinobi got 6 seconds of flagtime in their first 3 games of TWLB. Shinobi is taking a lot of hate for being in TWLB, but they deserved their spot fair and square. And it looks like there's some improvement going on after looking at their game vs. Passion. Keep strugling asshole!
Let's look back at PaulOakenFolds predictions for the TWLB regular season. Not because they were so accurate, but because Paul was the only one who took the effort to make well thought of estimates of all TWLB squads. Let's keep one thing clear. The goal of this thread is not to bash on Paul for where he was wrong. The goal is to use his predictions as a starting point to provoke a discussion about past and future performances of all squads. So thanks Paul and I hope you don't mind me using your work.
In the following you'll read Pauls original predictions, with some extra comments added by myself. The current stats have been added in bold behind each squadname.
1. Dice 10-0, (5-0) : Dice has the possibility of owning the regular season. They have a very tough schedule ahead of them with 4 weeks they'll have to pay close attention to, including their first week vs Spastic.
Dice did what most expected them to do, go 5-0. Spastic was indeed their toughest customer but didn't have what it takes to overthrow. Good prediction here. 10-0 defenatly seems within Dice's reach. Top contented number 1.
2. Anti-Scrub 9-1, (3-2) : I'm optomistic about A-S' season, they have 3 weeks that they'll have to watch out for. They have an opportunity to either go 7-3 this season to 10-0. With A-S, you never know anymore.
Paul wasn't the only one who got disappointed by AS's performance this season. So far Anti-Scrub has gone 3-2, losing to Disoblige and Syndicate. Ofcourse there's no shame in losing to these two obviously hot squads. But didn't we expect Anti-Scrub to have the edge over Disoblige and Syndicate? I know i did.
3. Pandora 9-1, (2-2) : These guys held the top spot on the TWBD ladder longer than any squad this off-season, and for good reason. They may have played game after game, but they played against great teams and had an amazing amount of wins. Pandora has an easy schedule ahead of them, but they have to watch out for 3 distinct games.
Pandora currently has a 2-2 rec (with the game vs. Sk8 moved to be replayed in week 11). Seems like being big in TWD doesn't mean the same for TWL. However, just like AS, Pandora has its two losses against 2 of the three undefeated squads. No shame here and they might go ahead and win every game they play from here on. But a top contender for the title Pandor is defenatly not.
4. Syndicate 9-1, (5-0) : Out of the top 5 teams, Syndicate has the easiest schedule. These guys have been a bit iffy lately, perhaps beacuse of the lack of fireballz or the lack of games and activity.
Syndicate is doing better than we expected. Going 5-0 and beating squads like Final and AS is not easy. For the rest of the season looks like they only have Disoblige and Pandora to watch out for. 10-0 is defenatly possible. Top contender number 2.
5. Spastic 8-2, (3-2) : Being in the easier conference, Spastic has a fairly easy schedule. We have been iffy as well lately, but we have picked up a few promising spider recruits, something that our activity generally enjoys. We do have a couple of iffy games, and could end up with a record of 6-4 if we don't play the top of our game.
Spastic currently has a 3-2 rec. Looks like Pauls prediction still stands. Spastic losing to Sk8 however is something that surprised me. Anti-Scrub coming up next week. A crucial game for Spastic which will decide if we can still consider Spastic a serious contentder for the title.
6. -Final- 7-3, (3-2) : I'd say that although -Final- doesn't have to face Dice, they have a fairly tough schedule ahead of them this season. -Final- had an absolutely OUTSTAND first pre-season game vs Anti-Scrub, but had an embarassing second game vs Spastic. These guys could very well do a lot better than a record of 7-3.
Final also lost 2 games already, to Syndicate and Spastic. With Pandora and Disoblige coming up, play offs arent a sure thing yet. Final looks less resistant this season compared to last. They still guarantee excitement for every twlb game they play.
7.BasingCrew 6-4, (2-3) : These guys have a solid and challenging schedule ahead of them. They'll have to be on top of their game for 80% of the games they play in order to make playoffs this season. I have a lot of faith in these guys, for they've been fairly impressive lately. An impressive first game against a top notch team without Ajaxee terring for them, and a pretty good start to a canceled game, that even from the couple of minutes viewed, looked to have been able to go either way.
With 3 losses on the scoreboards and Dice, Disoblige and Spastic coming up, BasingCrew is looking at a tough job to reach play offs. Sure they're active and prooved to be a consistent squad in TWBD. But just like last season it seems that BasingCrew isn't ready yet to roll with the big boys.
8. Sk8 5-5, (3-1) : Wow you guys have quite a trip ahead of you. Good luck. Right in the middle of the pack you go fellas, and what a fitting record to be the middle team. Week 1 should be a nice way to begin the season for you guys, but I'm afraid it's not much of a walk in the park from there on.
Sk8 is playing better than expected. With 3 wins in the bank, of which one against Spastic, Sk8 is playing hard. Second half of the season is gonna be tough for them though. But an upset against one of the big three defenatly seems within their capabilities.
9. Disoblige 4-6, (5-0) : I almost feel bad giving you guys such a crappy record. For many of us, you'll always be rememered for season 5 and TWT performances, but alas, you are a mere shadow of that great basing team. You guys definitely have the potential to pull a positive rec this season, but I'm just not seeing it right now.
This is probably the only prediction in which Paul really got it wrong. Disoblige is undefeated untill now and I'm sure most of us didn't expect that. Week 6 will be the game to watch when they test their strenght with Syndicate. Seems like Disoblige is back and claiming a serious shot at the title. Top contender number 3
10. Slam 4-6, (2-3) : New group of guys, have some older basers thrown in there, some good, some not so good. They have a pretty tough schedule ahead of them, but like Diso, have the potential and the opportunity to get above that .500 mark.
Two wins, 3 losses, Slam isn't doing that bad for their first TWLB season. They lost to squads bigger and better than them and will probably do so a couple of times more in the weeks to come. Defenatly no play off material but worthy of a place in the league.
11. Ancients 3-7, (3-2) : They looked pretty decent the first TWBD tournament, slipped up in the second, and had a crushing defeat against Sk8 in the second week pre-season match. Not looking promissing for playoff hopes guys. Who knows, maybe you'll suprise us all.
Ancients is with Sk8 another squad that's playing a lot better than we expected. Looks like when duelers set their mind to basing they usually do it better than the average basingsquad. Why is that? I don't know. Ancients will probably land 5th or 6th this season. But just like Sk8 they have the potential to upset. If they manage to catch one of the big teams with a slightly weaker line up, they'll be a handful.
12. Passion 3-7, (1-4) : Congratulations you had a perfect pre-season, but it's a shame that the two squads you beat, are also a part of your 3 wins. I don't think anyone expects much from these guys, but perhaps they like it that way. The last of the bubble squads.
Passion will probably do a bit worse than predicted, having lost all games except vs. Shinobi. There is hower one big difference between Passion and Shinobi, and that's..the Passion?
13. Pirates 2-8, (2-3) : Nothing too impressive here. They could pull a win or two, or could very well go 0-10, but not playoff contenders I'm afraid.
Pirates aren't doing great, but they're not falling on their faces either. They're winning the games they were expected to win and doing it with style. One or two wins more? It's possible so go for it!
14. Teks 1-9, (0-5) : And here we have Teks, the underdogs of last season and this season. Last time they played in the leagues they were a shoe-in and suprised many people. The competition this year is a bit higher, so I don't expect that to happen again. Not quite a bubble team, but they definitely have some bite to them.
Looks like week 6 will be Teks moment of sunshine. Again an accurate prediction by Paul. 1-9 is very likely to happen.
15. Camisade 1-9, (0-5) : If Diso is a mere shadow of their past team, Camisade is their old team, but thrown into a room full of plastic balls with the lights off.
Camisade is losing everything and is losing everything pretty bad. Sad story those plastic balls but it's the truth. The way it looks now, the only game in which they'll stand a chance is Shinobi.
16. Shinobi 0-10, 0-5 : The dirty asshole of our basing league. They seem like a nice enough group of guys, and I recognize a couple of old warbird veterans, but in regards to basing, they just don't cut it. They replaced GV because of some issues, but are definitely not up to the par of GV (who probably would have had a season similar to Sk8).
Shinobi got 6 seconds of flagtime in their first 3 games of TWLB. Shinobi is taking a lot of hate for being in TWLB, but they deserved their spot fair and square. And it looks like there's some improvement going on after looking at their game vs. Passion. Keep strugling asshole!
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