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hmm i was gonna do some comics but I'm lazy and this week was just ridiculously predictable. The skill gap between dynasty/sweet and pirates/heavy/quake/thunder is almost as huge as the skill gap between pirates and the other 3 top squads. None of the games were really close at any point. Theres literally nothing to talk about. So now I'll get on with it:
Quake vs Pirates
First match of the season: Waaaay back in week 1, Quake won a very tight game because vys sucked and lobbed nonstop.
Whats changed: Attacks and Weaver no longer start for Pirates, and Kyou has been replaced by Raspi for Quake. Also, vys is using a cheat again and Quake's gotten much more solid teamwork with their straight up running tactics lead by Vash and possibly Guero.
Experience: Vash, Guero, and vys will all be nervous as fuck as Vash and vys want the world to recognize what amazing players they are and they dont have any real experience in pressure situations. Guero will be nervous because he needs to send money back down to mexico for the rest of his family, and ignite pays him based on his performance. The advantage here probably actually goes to pirates, even though chokle and vys dont have much in the form of playoff experience.
My prediction: This will undoubtedly be a stray fest. If it plays out this way, Quake has the huge upperhand here. After dding against vash this week and seeing him 1v1 against Apok with 12 minutes left and the score 46-44, he proceeded to run the timer down to 2:00 when Apok just got bored and frustrated and suicided 4 times. Pirates might consider using Weaver instead of chuckle if this happens to counter some of the 'radaring' that will be going on, as he has a knack for landing 'skilled' bullets from off of peoples radar. Pirates tactics will be mostly the same as they are in TWDD and rely on what happens in between rounds - running out the timer for no reason and hoping to god that Quakes top players have RL shit to do. I think objectively speaking that Quake has the advantage talent-wise, but nerves are going to play a factor for both teams so it will be interesting to see how it goes down.
I'm still going to have to go Quake in 2
Thunder vs Heavy
First match of the season: Thunder jumped on the aggressiveness of me and Annoyance, and then struggled with beam Apok and RaCka. Eventually the game ended with RaCka vs Burnt and Vitja in a 2v1. Despite having the 2v1 advantages and the score in their favor, Vitja and Burnt decided to run from King RaCka's exceptional close range game and eventually whittled him away with poorly aimed radars that the King wasnt expecting.
Whats changed: I dont think anything on Thunder has changed for 3 years. The one thing I will mention is that I played against Burnt in elim and he tried to rush me a couple times. I was surprised because it took me more than 10 seconds to shake him, but part of that reason was because I was questioning his sanity/sobriety level to come at me of all people like that instead of his usual lobbing. beam no longer starts for Heavy. Kthx may or may not depending on activity, but even so Foreign and bike have been playing more and playing well. Well enough to question if Annoy and Kthx are worth starting in the first place even if they were more active. bike is possibly another Apok/RaCka/Izor calibur wb depending on how hes playing on his desktop, which we learned this week is pretty well after dropping a 16-5 deuce on Dynasty, and Foreign has all the experience to show that he doesnt get nervous.
Experience: Clearly nerves are not an issue for Thunder. These guys have been in this situation nearly every year and although they only won it once on sk8, theyre always a threat to take it and almost always will at least keep it close. Heavy on the other hand has a lot of newcomers to the semis: namely all of their likely starters except foreign. Being on this squad, I know that with the comfort level me Apok and RaCka have flying a wb theres nothing we're worried about except teamwork, but regardless Thunder still has a huge advantage here.
My prediction: Thunder is going to run all game in fear of HEAVY's dominating close range attack. What was exploited in the first match in Annoyances and my own aggressiveness was in part enabled by RaCka's and beams lack of aggressiveness. The skill gap in the line that Thunder played against in the regular season and the one they'll be playing in the playoffs is huge, and as long as no one goes 3v1 chasing someone whos probably gonna eat their bullets anyway the team should die out relatively evenly. This is going to be strength vs strength, as both squads really know how to lock down the game in a 5v4 situation, so look for the first person getting knocked out to play a huge part in the game. Thunder is really going to need to team up and get someone out early though, because none of their warbirds match up very well against the talent on HEAVY. I mean really, go down the list and compare the starting lines.
I'm going with Heavy in 2 because of the difference in skill between the 2 squads, but teamwork will be key as always.
Quake vs Pirates
First match of the season: Waaaay back in week 1, Quake won a very tight game because vys sucked and lobbed nonstop.
Whats changed: Attacks and Weaver no longer start for Pirates, and Kyou has been replaced by Raspi for Quake. Also, vys is using a cheat again and Quake's gotten much more solid teamwork with their straight up running tactics lead by Vash and possibly Guero.
Experience: Vash, Guero, and vys will all be nervous as fuck as Vash and vys want the world to recognize what amazing players they are and they dont have any real experience in pressure situations. Guero will be nervous because he needs to send money back down to mexico for the rest of his family, and ignite pays him based on his performance. The advantage here probably actually goes to pirates, even though chokle and vys dont have much in the form of playoff experience.
My prediction: This will undoubtedly be a stray fest. If it plays out this way, Quake has the huge upperhand here. After dding against vash this week and seeing him 1v1 against Apok with 12 minutes left and the score 46-44, he proceeded to run the timer down to 2:00 when Apok just got bored and frustrated and suicided 4 times. Pirates might consider using Weaver instead of chuckle if this happens to counter some of the 'radaring' that will be going on, as he has a knack for landing 'skilled' bullets from off of peoples radar. Pirates tactics will be mostly the same as they are in TWDD and rely on what happens in between rounds - running out the timer for no reason and hoping to god that Quakes top players have RL shit to do. I think objectively speaking that Quake has the advantage talent-wise, but nerves are going to play a factor for both teams so it will be interesting to see how it goes down.
I'm still going to have to go Quake in 2
Thunder vs Heavy
First match of the season: Thunder jumped on the aggressiveness of me and Annoyance, and then struggled with beam Apok and RaCka. Eventually the game ended with RaCka vs Burnt and Vitja in a 2v1. Despite having the 2v1 advantages and the score in their favor, Vitja and Burnt decided to run from King RaCka's exceptional close range game and eventually whittled him away with poorly aimed radars that the King wasnt expecting.
Whats changed: I dont think anything on Thunder has changed for 3 years. The one thing I will mention is that I played against Burnt in elim and he tried to rush me a couple times. I was surprised because it took me more than 10 seconds to shake him, but part of that reason was because I was questioning his sanity/sobriety level to come at me of all people like that instead of his usual lobbing. beam no longer starts for Heavy. Kthx may or may not depending on activity, but even so Foreign and bike have been playing more and playing well. Well enough to question if Annoy and Kthx are worth starting in the first place even if they were more active. bike is possibly another Apok/RaCka/Izor calibur wb depending on how hes playing on his desktop, which we learned this week is pretty well after dropping a 16-5 deuce on Dynasty, and Foreign has all the experience to show that he doesnt get nervous.
Experience: Clearly nerves are not an issue for Thunder. These guys have been in this situation nearly every year and although they only won it once on sk8, theyre always a threat to take it and almost always will at least keep it close. Heavy on the other hand has a lot of newcomers to the semis: namely all of their likely starters except foreign. Being on this squad, I know that with the comfort level me Apok and RaCka have flying a wb theres nothing we're worried about except teamwork, but regardless Thunder still has a huge advantage here.
My prediction: Thunder is going to run all game in fear of HEAVY's dominating close range attack. What was exploited in the first match in Annoyances and my own aggressiveness was in part enabled by RaCka's and beams lack of aggressiveness. The skill gap in the line that Thunder played against in the regular season and the one they'll be playing in the playoffs is huge, and as long as no one goes 3v1 chasing someone whos probably gonna eat their bullets anyway the team should die out relatively evenly. This is going to be strength vs strength, as both squads really know how to lock down the game in a 5v4 situation, so look for the first person getting knocked out to play a huge part in the game. Thunder is really going to need to team up and get someone out early though, because none of their warbirds match up very well against the talent on HEAVY. I mean really, go down the list and compare the starting lines.
I'm going with Heavy in 2 because of the difference in skill between the 2 squads, but teamwork will be key as always.
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