Tweet
Writing this because I'm pissed off at not getting my top job offer + bored + I remember Rasaq wanting this kind of stuff alive again.
So the regular season is starting to wind down and next week should give us at least 3 good games. At this point in time, there are two 4-2 squads (Thunder, Hit), two 3-3 squads (Potenza, Real), and two 2-4 squads (Dice, Quicksand). Since Fierce and Penetrate are - short of dissolving - essentially guaranteed a playoff spot, the next couple of weeks are going to be very important for (1) the top squads for seeding purposes and (2) the mid-tier squads battling for a trip to the playoffs. In my opinion, all of these squads are good enough to deserve such a trip, but two of them will have to end the season empty-handed. Sorry to those on Lego/Spastic, but good work at least pulling through the season and giving us some nail-biters.
I'm going to go through the games next week while giving a bit of analysis about their squadron's style/lineups. I'll talk a bit about the playoff positions at the end.
Dice vs. Lego:
Likely Dice Lineup: Cape, Megaman89, Vys, a2m, Best/Paska/Delectable
Likely Lego Lineup: Murder, Let, Baffling, Duclover, Flew/Opt|mus/Morph/Jaa
While Lego has came really close to upsetting even some of the best squads this season, I do not see them winning this game. Dice needs this win too much to choke. Three of Dice's finals wbs are back (mm89, a2m, vys), but they have lost some as well (unabled/weak/guero). Dice's radar/lure/vulch style is very effective, though in my opinion this lineup is a wild card depending on how much dele cares. Cape and best seem to be capable of pulling their own weight, but the teaming clearly isn't at the level it needs to be as the team is 2-4. Lego seems to have decent teaming but doesn't seem to be able KO people on 9, not to mention at least one player seems to choke every single game. Dice will look to mm89 and vys, while Lego will look to murder (who has had a tremendous season but cant stay alive on 9) and let.
Penetrate vs. Hit:
Likely Penetrate Lineup: Raazi, Rasaq, Ricko, Creature, Casket/Peru/Chuckle
Likely Hit Lineup: Paky Dude, Lasenza, Welt, Golden Duck, Keith/Cloth/Sulfur
Penetrate's lineup is deeper than I thought, though I doubt some of these players will really play much in the postseason. I have Penetrate actually going at least to semifinals because at last they have a lineup that is both strong skill-wise and team-wise. Hit relies heavily on paky/golden/lasenza: if none of these guys have a breakout game, the 4th and 5th rarely step up. This will be an interesting game because penetrate likes to push, lead by rasaq/ricko/creature and has excellent support from raazi and casket. This tendency to push might also be their downfall, as hit loves to backpedal, stray, and vulch. Despite the hate, lasenza has definitely become a better teamer and has shown the ability to will himself to win games (e.g. last week against QS). I have penetrate winning this one because someone on hit will likely choke. Hit: you do realize you have TVC on your squad right? Get him active.
Quicksand vs. Thunder:
Likely Quicksand Lineup: Izor, Kyou, Racka, Weak, Kthx/Kid Kaos/FST/Dour
Likely Thunder Lineup: Ease, CrimsonX, Unabled, Riverside, Vt/Beam/Cres/Obi/Dwight ^___^/Vitja?
Quicksand needs this win, needless to say. I think they will get it because I doubt anybody on Thunder cares about this match, as they will make the playoffs and probably get to at least the finals. QS has struggled all season long to get their team-rush style together, often ending in someone choking. Izor has stepped up his game recently but they will definitely need Kyou/Racka to do well to be able to even make the playoffs. Thunder's lineup is completely different than last year's, with the removal of burnt/geisha/chuckle. However, picking up riverside is a huge plus, and crimsonx has shown that he can do more than pull his own weight on the big stage. The question here is if unabled can stay alive long enough, and if/when thunder figures out their 5th (note that Raspi is also on the roster).
Real vs. Spastic:
Likely Real Lineup: Burnt, Jones, Reaver, Weaver, Mythril/Scoop/Sika
Likely Spastic Lineup: Pure_Luck, Zagis, Henry Saari, Money, Oops/L3MU3L
Real will win this, again because they need this win. Zagis has had a good season and Pure_Luck seems to hold his own, but pretty much nobody else has stepped up. Real's roster has some of the best wbs in the league, but have shown that they have teaming issues attributed often to unbalanced deaths (i.e. Jones dies out early, Burnt dies out late). All of their players have the ability to explode and give 13+ kills - it's just a matter of time before Real recognizes their teaming problem and adjusts for the playoffs.
Potenza vs. Fierce:
Likely Potenza Lineup: Iron Survivor, Qpr, Okyo, Tarnish, Quart/Duke-/Harder/Bietje
Likely Fierce Lineup: Apok, Skepsis, Deez Nuts, Engineers/Geio/Dak/Props/Swimkid/Rub
I honestly really like Potenza as a squadron: they are an up and coming group of above-average wbs who are focused on learning how to team. You will rarely see them not regroup after dying, and most of their lineup can at do decent even against the best squads. Iron and okyo are having breakout seasons with some of the playing I've seen from them (though I still think Iron crosses his team too much just like he crossed me in twdt). I'm going to give us the win though, because we have great teaming as well in addition to talent. As always, apok and deez will be the ones pushing and having dak/myself/geio adds another dimension of midrange and radar. This is no longer a squad that pushes and pushes - it can adapt to things like the stalemate mid-game situations and adjust.
Predictions for Playoff Spots:
The following squads will make it: these are the best squads in the league imo. Real at the moment is 3-3 has the hardest schedule coming up (QS, Penetrate), but they do have tie-breaker wins over hit and potenza.
-Fierce
-Penetrate
-Thunder
-Real
Fighting for last 2 spots: If QS (2-4) loses even one of their upcoming games (and none of them seem like they will be a cakewalk), they will most likely not make the playoffs. Hit (4-2) on the other hand has a tough schedule as well, but a win over any of those teams, especially Dice, would likely get them into the playoffs.
-Dice 2-4 (to play against hit and thunder)
-Quicksand 2-4 (to play against Thunder, Real, and Potenza)
-Potenza 3-3 (to play against Fierce, Quicksand)
-Hit 4-2 (to play against Penetrate, Dice, and Thunder)
Things are looking pretty grim for QS and Dice, but hopefully they will step up. Note that this predictions stuff is all assuming that Lego doesn't finally have an epic upset. More likely than not, we will end up with some tiebreaker scenario and teams that lost in upset games will come to realize that the regular season does matter, if even a bit.
Good luck to all teams, and see you in the trenches!
So the regular season is starting to wind down and next week should give us at least 3 good games. At this point in time, there are two 4-2 squads (Thunder, Hit), two 3-3 squads (Potenza, Real), and two 2-4 squads (Dice, Quicksand). Since Fierce and Penetrate are - short of dissolving - essentially guaranteed a playoff spot, the next couple of weeks are going to be very important for (1) the top squads for seeding purposes and (2) the mid-tier squads battling for a trip to the playoffs. In my opinion, all of these squads are good enough to deserve such a trip, but two of them will have to end the season empty-handed. Sorry to those on Lego/Spastic, but good work at least pulling through the season and giving us some nail-biters.
I'm going to go through the games next week while giving a bit of analysis about their squadron's style/lineups. I'll talk a bit about the playoff positions at the end.
Dice vs. Lego:
Likely Dice Lineup: Cape, Megaman89, Vys, a2m, Best/Paska/Delectable
Likely Lego Lineup: Murder, Let, Baffling, Duclover, Flew/Opt|mus/Morph/Jaa
While Lego has came really close to upsetting even some of the best squads this season, I do not see them winning this game. Dice needs this win too much to choke. Three of Dice's finals wbs are back (mm89, a2m, vys), but they have lost some as well (unabled/weak/guero). Dice's radar/lure/vulch style is very effective, though in my opinion this lineup is a wild card depending on how much dele cares. Cape and best seem to be capable of pulling their own weight, but the teaming clearly isn't at the level it needs to be as the team is 2-4. Lego seems to have decent teaming but doesn't seem to be able KO people on 9, not to mention at least one player seems to choke every single game. Dice will look to mm89 and vys, while Lego will look to murder (who has had a tremendous season but cant stay alive on 9) and let.
Penetrate vs. Hit:
Likely Penetrate Lineup: Raazi, Rasaq, Ricko, Creature, Casket/Peru/Chuckle
Likely Hit Lineup: Paky Dude, Lasenza, Welt, Golden Duck, Keith/Cloth/Sulfur
Penetrate's lineup is deeper than I thought, though I doubt some of these players will really play much in the postseason. I have Penetrate actually going at least to semifinals because at last they have a lineup that is both strong skill-wise and team-wise. Hit relies heavily on paky/golden/lasenza: if none of these guys have a breakout game, the 4th and 5th rarely step up. This will be an interesting game because penetrate likes to push, lead by rasaq/ricko/creature and has excellent support from raazi and casket. This tendency to push might also be their downfall, as hit loves to backpedal, stray, and vulch. Despite the hate, lasenza has definitely become a better teamer and has shown the ability to will himself to win games (e.g. last week against QS). I have penetrate winning this one because someone on hit will likely choke. Hit: you do realize you have TVC on your squad right? Get him active.
Quicksand vs. Thunder:
Likely Quicksand Lineup: Izor, Kyou, Racka, Weak, Kthx/Kid Kaos/FST/Dour
Likely Thunder Lineup: Ease, CrimsonX, Unabled, Riverside, Vt/Beam/Cres/Obi/Dwight ^___^/Vitja?
Quicksand needs this win, needless to say. I think they will get it because I doubt anybody on Thunder cares about this match, as they will make the playoffs and probably get to at least the finals. QS has struggled all season long to get their team-rush style together, often ending in someone choking. Izor has stepped up his game recently but they will definitely need Kyou/Racka to do well to be able to even make the playoffs. Thunder's lineup is completely different than last year's, with the removal of burnt/geisha/chuckle. However, picking up riverside is a huge plus, and crimsonx has shown that he can do more than pull his own weight on the big stage. The question here is if unabled can stay alive long enough, and if/when thunder figures out their 5th (note that Raspi is also on the roster).
Real vs. Spastic:
Likely Real Lineup: Burnt, Jones, Reaver, Weaver, Mythril/Scoop/Sika
Likely Spastic Lineup: Pure_Luck, Zagis, Henry Saari, Money, Oops/L3MU3L
Real will win this, again because they need this win. Zagis has had a good season and Pure_Luck seems to hold his own, but pretty much nobody else has stepped up. Real's roster has some of the best wbs in the league, but have shown that they have teaming issues attributed often to unbalanced deaths (i.e. Jones dies out early, Burnt dies out late). All of their players have the ability to explode and give 13+ kills - it's just a matter of time before Real recognizes their teaming problem and adjusts for the playoffs.
Potenza vs. Fierce:
Likely Potenza Lineup: Iron Survivor, Qpr, Okyo, Tarnish, Quart/Duke-/Harder/Bietje
Likely Fierce Lineup: Apok, Skepsis, Deez Nuts, Engineers/Geio/Dak/Props/Swimkid/Rub
I honestly really like Potenza as a squadron: they are an up and coming group of above-average wbs who are focused on learning how to team. You will rarely see them not regroup after dying, and most of their lineup can at do decent even against the best squads. Iron and okyo are having breakout seasons with some of the playing I've seen from them (though I still think Iron crosses his team too much just like he crossed me in twdt). I'm going to give us the win though, because we have great teaming as well in addition to talent. As always, apok and deez will be the ones pushing and having dak/myself/geio adds another dimension of midrange and radar. This is no longer a squad that pushes and pushes - it can adapt to things like the stalemate mid-game situations and adjust.
Predictions for Playoff Spots:
The following squads will make it: these are the best squads in the league imo. Real at the moment is 3-3 has the hardest schedule coming up (QS, Penetrate), but they do have tie-breaker wins over hit and potenza.
-Fierce
-Penetrate
-Thunder
-Real
Fighting for last 2 spots: If QS (2-4) loses even one of their upcoming games (and none of them seem like they will be a cakewalk), they will most likely not make the playoffs. Hit (4-2) on the other hand has a tough schedule as well, but a win over any of those teams, especially Dice, would likely get them into the playoffs.
-Dice 2-4 (to play against hit and thunder)
-Quicksand 2-4 (to play against Thunder, Real, and Potenza)
-Potenza 3-3 (to play against Fierce, Quicksand)
-Hit 4-2 (to play against Penetrate, Dice, and Thunder)
Things are looking pretty grim for QS and Dice, but hopefully they will step up. Note that this predictions stuff is all assuming that Lego doesn't finally have an epic upset. More likely than not, we will end up with some tiebreaker scenario and teams that lost in upset games will come to realize that the regular season does matter, if even a bit.
Good luck to all teams, and see you in the trenches!
Comment