TWLB 2013 Preview

[ogron]

TWLB Predictions

Hilariously bad omissions by LF in red

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Pandora (7-1)

Terr: Cape, diakka
Sharks: Mattey, Zidane, Vatican Assassin
Spiders: Cripple, Shayde, Sarger, Ease, Leitz, Kate Upton, Undercut

This squad was my favorite to win for many months, however the loss of Spezza and Renzi in spider, and a general wave of inactivity has struck the squad, leaving me wondering how good they'll be come next week. Those losses are significant as Pandora lacks depth, and their secondary spiders are talented but campy/unspectacular and while one in won't hurt, two or three of them in vs. a top-tier squad could start to strain their ability to dominate the flagroom.

If their four big spids show-up every week with Cape in terr and three of the best sharks in the game, I think they'll make the final. Under is a concern, as is their level of activity, so we'll see.

Starters: 9/10
Depth: 5/10
Activity: 3/10 (big concern)
Terrs: 9/10 (6/10 if they put Tim into terr rotation)
Sharks: 10/10
Overspids: 9/10
Underspids: 6/10 (loss of Spezza significant, Kate inactive)
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Overall: 8/10 (not an average)

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Penetrate (8-0)

Terr: Cintra
Sharks: Veloce, porkjet, Downfall, Krage
Spiders: Trasher, Royst, Solacer, Acidbomber, zhou, domi, Minotar, bacon, temporary, tsumetai, Schope Norris, sphinx, fit of rage

Definitely everyone's favorite this year, Penetrate comes off a finals appearance last year, the most depth by far, and a vociferous streak of activity and domination in TWBD that seems to indicate they may be hungry for a third LB medal -- and with Dice out -- their odds haven't been better in years.

I really felt Pandora could take this basing Juggernaut on and win, but with the loss of starters and lack of activity Penetrate seems to be the safe bet at the moment.

Cintra will provide the veteran backbone of the squad as their two most aggressive spiders, Royst and Solacer, are in prime form, spearheaded by a plethora of top-notch sharks, and with the Acidbomber/zhou tandem causing havok underneath with pre-arranged camping strategies that make them hard to root out. Throw in any mix of the other aforementioned spiders and it's easy to see why the season is quickly becoming theirs to lose.

Starters: 9/10
Depth: 10/10 (most stacked squad in the league)
Activity: 9/10
Terrs: 9/10 (6/10 if Blahhy. is counted)
Sharks: 9/10
Overspids: 9/10
Underspids: 9/10 (best under-coverage in league atm)
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Overall: 10/10
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Dudgeon (4-4)

Terr: Mikkiz
Sharks: nokkonen, Pardon, Sakke
Spiders: Zizzo, Dreamwin, Megaman89, Sakke, gilder, nicholas, Micke, Melanoma

There is no squad that I want to win TWLB more than Dudgeon, and no squad that I think is more overrated in terms of predictions by many. "Oh, look Dudgeon is #1 in TWBD, they team well, they're selfless, friends irl, they're going far this year."

While that may be true, they have 12 players who actively base. They have no depth. They play what is almost essentially their LB line every game against random amalgamations of other squads' lines. nokkonen has to show every week or they'll get killed in sharking. Mikkiz can't miss a single match or be off his game.

While their sharks are solid, and their spiders team well, their only star spider is MM89, although Zizzo and Dreamwin are excellent as well. Gilder has been a welcome addition and unbeknownst to most I think may start (should start, if Dudgeon is smart) as he is their best underspider by a mile, and a very good player.

I expect a performance similar to LEGO last year (almost the same line, just replace Spezza with MM89) or worse. They'll either sneak into the playoffs and lose first round or miss the cut-off.

That said, they're a great squad that isn't stacked, has great chemistry, enjoy playing with each other, and I hope they do fantastic.

Starters: 6/10
Depth: 2/10 (nokko and Mikkiz can't miss a game)
Activity: 8/10
Terrs: 9/10 (Mikkiz one of the best in the business)
Sharks: 7/10
Overspids: 7/10
Underspids: 7/10 (if Gilder in, 4/10 if not)
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Overall: 7/10

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Sage (6-2)

Terr: Zizu
Sharks: a2m, cranium, Confluence, Spikey, Superstar-PROkiller
Spiders: Stayon, kess, NL>Trigger, Gazo, Spikey, Superstar-PROkiller, Ogron, Dixy, Whimp, Zyclon, Havu, Kawrae, Da1andonly, Reab

I thought Sage would do significantly worse than people's generous, heuristic predictions, and up until the acquisition of a2m/cranium/confluence I think Sage would have performed poorly this season.

The rust seems to be shaking off as many Sage mainstays return, albeit perhaps not to the levels of their former glory in years past. Nonetheless, they are bolstered by the acquisition of Stayon and kess, two of the best spiders around, courtesy of Dice, making them a formidable opponent that seems to be peaking at the right time.

Zizu is one of the best terrs of all time, and with top level sharks and no shortage of quality spiders, Sage looks poised to make a deep playoff run.

Concerns: If Zizu doesn't show, it could present a lot of Tetris-like role-swapping that could be an issue, especially if NL>Trigger is terred, leaving under exposed and possibly forcing Stayon or Kess to under and someone else to over, causing a huge ripple effect. Major Crisis could potentially fill the slot, but doesn't seem overly intent on actively terring thus far.

Starters: 9/10
Depth: 9/10
Activity: 6/10 (will everyone be back to their full strength in time for playoffs?)
Terrs: 9/10 (who will terr if Zizu doesn't show? NL>Trigger? Then under becomes a serious problem)
Sharks: 10/10
Overspids: 9/10
Underspids: 8/10 (with NL>Trigger, 6/10 without unless kess or Stayon fill it)
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Overall: 8/10

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Revenge (5-3)

Terr: Skatarius, Zazerick, Mean Gene?
Sharks: hellkite, Menelvagor, Cig Smoke, Vehicle
Spiders: glavitik, squallFF8, M_M God, hellkite, Endangered, Producer, Mean Gene

This is another squad, like Dudgeon, that can be difficult to judge as they often play with close to their LB line (not in the last 1-2 months, but prior to that they did) and depth problems could be a concern, despite having a lot of talented basers and a dedicated core.

Revenge is strong (and, like Sage, laggy) in the most important position -- sharking, and has some of the most aggressive sharks/spiders in the game. They play fast and hit hard, which is crucial in TWLB, and will help alleviate a lot of pressure on their weakest area -- terr.

Terr is a big concern for Revenge going in against big names like Cape, Cintra, and Zizu. While Skatarius is competent, he's not on the same level as the others, and if pressured, losing or stuck outside of base could be an issue. If they start games well and play aggressive, Skat will have no problem terring them to victory by playing a positionally solid game.

Lack of depth, not dissimilar to Pandora, starts to creep in around their spider area, and for Revenge to be the serious contender it wants to be, will need Squall/Glav/Mene/HK/MM_God to show up every week without fail, and slide in a 5th spider from a long list of talented secondaries.

Mean Gene is probably the best terr on their roster, but I doubt he's active/cares enough to take up the number 5 ship this late in the game.

Starters: 8/10
Depth: 6/10 (a concern in the spider area)
Activity: 6/10 (also another concern as squall and others are sporadically online)
Terrs: 5/10 (Skat will be fine if everyone shows -- linked to their activity. MG prob won't care to terr. Terr their weakest link)
Sharks: 8/10 (Cig and Vehicle inactive, HK might spider)
Overspids: 9/10 (aggressive and push well)
Underspids: 7/10
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Overall: 7/10

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Cobra (3-5)

Terr: flared, Raples
Sharks: Creature, Dwopple, BongHits, Murder
Spiders: Renzi, necromotic, Murder, Turban, Jurassic, Weaver, Lionheart, Ricko, Humid, flared, spell

While many have written them off, Cobra could be poised to upset several squads this year if underestimated. While they don't have much depth, they sport strong starters in every position and 1-2 competent subs in every area, not leaving much room for easily exploitable weaknesses.

flared and Raples are good terrs, and Creature/Dwopple, despite criticisms aimed at Creature, have proved to be a very good tandem with an aggressive style.

Spiders like Renzi, Necomotic, Turban and Murder round out the Cobramins LB lineup and are ready to surprise anyone that doesn't consider them a legitimate threat.

They're spread across 3-leagues, the fact that most of these players aren't fully dedicated basers, and lack of star-power could be a concern -- especially when it comes to fighting under vs. dedicated underspids or having to break/hold cram against basing nerds.

A solid addition to the basing world.

Starters: 7/10
Depth: 6/10 (Dwopple/Creature need to show every week)
Activity: 7/10
Terrs: 7/10
Sharks: 7/10
Overspids: 8/10
Underspids: 5/10 (Could be a legitimate concern)
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Overall: 6/10

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Sweet (2-6)

Terr: Burnt
Sharks: LF, Riverside, Hulk
Spiders: Spezza, Jack, Engineers, Mango., Seismic, NOCKM, Burnt, Ra, Cremation

LF doesn't know it yet, but he'll end up playing Burnt in red ship because he's good under pressure, has good positioning, is a vet, and Ra and Alterra are worse options -- even if it means losing a quality spider it's your teams most important ship, you fucking idiot.

Then again, he might not, given that he listed Children as a starting spider on Pandora.

Spezza is a huge addition, and will likely anchor the under position, giving Burnt some breathing room as their short list of medium-level spiders fight it out over.

The only thing keeping Sweet from total annihilation in LB is the fact they've got three strong sharks who will likely show every week, as well as excellent under coverage and a competent terr in Burnt. Losing Burnt as a spider hurts, but there is no better alternative.

Starters: 7/10
Depth: 6/10 (Dwopple/Creature need to show every week)
Activity: 6/10
Terrs: 6/10
Sharks: 8/10
Overspids: 5/10 (a big concern, especially if Burnt is terr)
Underspids: 9/10 (Very strong under potential with Spezza and Engi)
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Overall: 5/10

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Raid (0-8)

Terr: Pressure, Reaver
Sharks: Max B, Bill C, Eelam
Spiders: Reaver, Steep, Bill C, poxy, Best, plob#f

Raid's inability to keep the basers it's acquired over the past two months will inevitably be its downfall, as it's fielded venomous lines with the likes of Tabarnak, Confluence, cranium, a2m, Renzi, kess and Stayon, as well as axing strong potential recruits such as Gilder, rather than helping them out and grooming them for starting positions down the line.

Raid will benefit from solid terring from Pressure, as well as a good backup in Reaver if needed. Max B returns to the fold at the starting shark position, leaving Thix with a similar starting 3 to Fierces 0-7 season last year. Who will shark with him? Bill C? Eelam? It will be decent, but won't hold up to some of the extremely strong shark combos being touted across the league.

Lack of depth at the spider position is another major concern, with Reaver and Poxy the only standout names, and while the rest are competent, will struggle against the star-power being leveled at them both from above and below.

Starters: 4/10
Depth: 3/10
Activity: 6/10
Terrs: 8/10 (solid pair of terrs the squads highlight)
Sharks: 5/10 (Max B + ???)
Overspids: 5/10
Underspids: 3/10 (another problem area)
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Overall: 3/10

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Spastic (1-7)

Terr: Pure_Luck
Sharks: TABARNAK!!!, Oder, Eria, Ephemeral, JAMAL
Spiders: JAMAL, wbm, Spiderhate, Pyroblast, Sprained, Sulla, Hazuki, Rucci, Prox <ZH>

In theory, if you had the line of PL (terr), Tab/Oder (shark), Jamal/wbm/spiderhate/???/??? (spider) show up every week, Spastic could pose serious problems to enemy teams with that lethal Dice shark combo and two high-level Dice spiders leading the charge.

The likelihood of that happening remains to be seen, but Spastic's ability to field a good line hangs by the thread, requiring them to keep the aforementioned players and have them show every Sunday.

Pure_Luck's terring is hard to judge given he's usually behind such horrid lines in TWBD, but generally falls between semi-competent, offensive and competent to complete meltdown replete with unforced errors and bad deaths.

If they keep Tab and Oder, they'll have a wonderful opportunity to compete given their strong sharking abilities. They probably can't afford to shark JAMAL if one of them doesn't show.

At spider, their line quickly goes from JAMAL to terrible, and will be a huge issue.

Starters: 5/10
Depth: 4/10
Activity: 8/10 (a good sign)
Terrs: 5/10 (P_L won't have the luxury of being able to hide and play safe and let his team win, like Skatarius likely will)
Sharks: 9/10 (TABARSMASH!!!)
Overspids: 6/10
Underspids: 4/10 (like several other squads, another toughie)
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Overall: 4/10



Playoffs

Look for Penetrate to nab the top spot, while Sage and Pandora to battle it out for #2 and a by to the semis, Revenge 4th, and Dudgeon and Cobra coming in 5th and 6th. Look for Raid to go winless if they can't get by Spastic during the season, and Sweet to fall short of their own lofty expectations.

I hope Dudgeon or Sage wins, but right now Penetrate seems poised to take it all. I don't want Pandora to win, but if they can get their act together they could be a good outside bet to upset the 2x champs.

Odds:
Penetrate (55%)
Pandora (20%)
Sage (20%)
Revenge (5%)

[renzi]

purty good write up cowboy

[LF]

Lets see all the names you THINK i missed....
Out of all those names in red the only ones I actually missed was Leitz and Sarger. So I'd bump pandora up 1 more win to a 4-5 from my previous statement. You can't be serious about sharking zidane in a game that actually matters, I thought he only played to increase squad activity?? No idea who Kate Upton is, or gilder. Confluence wasn't on Sage this morning when I did my writeup, he was on REAL, so that doesnt count... The rest I either didn't forget at all (NL Trigger, Hellkite and Best) or forgot on purpose for a reason because they do not/cannot base well, such as yourself.

If you think my spider line is so weak wait to see how many of my spiders are in the top 10 for total kills the season. You may be surprised!

Also, in your dumb little ratings section that you copied and pasted from the squad above us (Creature and dwopple need to show) you gave us a 6 in activity when nobody has more BDs than us in the past 2 weeks. If you add up all the bias numbers you gave us it still averages out to a 7/10, not a 5.

[Shaddowknight]

No love for poor Shaddowknight, not even a mention...

[the_paul]

did you really include zidane in your list of top sharks in the game, and then rate porkjet and veloce lower than the rotation he's included in? There is no way that I have been gone long enough for this to be true

[Hydride]

HEY PAUL!!! WHERE U BEEN?

[Zeebu]

im going to anchor sweet in lancaster this year

[Zeebu]

i will be the rock

[the_paul]

sup hydride

zoobo is my rock

[ogron]

did you really include zidane in your list of top sharks in the game, and then rate porkjet and veloce lower than the rotation he's included in? There is no way that I have been gone long enough for this to be true

One, whether I think he's a top shark or not is irrelevant, Pandora is going to play those three sharks. Two, he is more active than Vatican Assassin, and while Zid was a terrible shark 2 years ago when Sage went to the finals vs. Dice (when he started), he's played about 10,000 bds since and having played behind Mattey/Zidane for 1.5 years I can say they're one of the best tandems around, even if Zid does place down the occasionally stupid fucking mine. Vatican is a great shark, but doesn't play nearly as much, and I thought Zid was a bit better last I played with them, but Mattey/Zidane or Mattey/Vati are both great sharking lineups, and I doubt they'll ever dip into Mcvicar or any of there other players who can shark well because of it.

Zidane and Mattey also sharked together on Thunder last year, falling 3 minutes short of a TWLB finals appearance. I stand by his inclusion, and expect him to split time with Vatican.

[squallFF8]

I would think on paper, sage has a better chance of taking it than pandora. Due to the fact that their top tier players are hungry, and dedicated to staying warm for another serious lb run. (but you were probably just being modest! )

Also, much respect to the entire pene roster, but this exact line fell to dice in a decisive 2-0 in lb final last season. So in all fairness.. If dice was able to exploit their weaknesses, with seemingly little difficulty, i'd say their line was a true 10/10. And pene's a 9. (just one mans opinion..).

Shoutouts to zidane, who's put in mad shark time since sage, and would easily be the best filler on pandora's roster incase mattey or vati can't show.

Expect lots of twists, turns, and upsets this season.. As there are several teams with potential to surprise once things start to heat up, and once players begin showing for the games that matter most.

Solid write up & good attention to detail .

[Jerome Scuggs]

uhhhhhh looks like everyone forgot jerome inc. im calling it now 9-0 and fuck all of you haters

[Gazo]

not playing this TWL... only showing to clutch 'n smack vs. panda.


HEY SHAYDE!!!!!!!!!!

[ogron]

Note:

In theory, if you had the line of PL (terr), Tab/Oder (shark), Jamal/wbm/spiderhate/???/??? (spider) show up every week, Spastic could pose serious problems to enemy teams with that lethal Dice shark combo and two high-level Dice spiders leading the charge.

sphinx ⊕ joined Spastic, accepted by Jamal Jan. 18, 2013 - 16:57
Cubano ⊕ joined Spastic, accepted by Jamal Jan. 18, 2013 - 16:57


??? = Panama
??? = Cripple

Looks like Spastic is quickly becoming a turnaround story, with the potential line of: Pure_Luck (terr), Tab/Oder (shark), and JAMAL/Cripple/wbm/Panama/Spiderhate -- 6/8 former Dicers -- if they maintain the current roster or continue to beef it up, they could easily make playoffs and possibly a finals run.

Conversely, the loss of Cripple for Pandora hurts their already depleted spider force, diminishing their potential for an LB medal.

[Jeenyuss]

sage looks good. nl>trigger's a beast