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The twenty-first TWLD championship is upon us. The Dramatis personæ selected. Eight squads entered, but like all Sith after Bane, there can only be two. Dice and Force. One breezed into the finals like a leaf on the wind, gently gliding across the Winner's bracket with nary a hiccup, feeling only the faintest of resistance, while the other fought and scratched and clawed their way out of a pit of vipers in the form of Cobra and Thunder in the Loser's bracket, hungry for their first taste of gold.
It is the classic tale. David versus Goliath. The Old Guard, defending champions, and favorites in Dice, against the upstarts who practiced harder than anyone else, annihilated the TWDD standings, and took the top seed in the TWLD regular season, eager to prove themselves. But to do so, they will have to fight against the tides of history, which are not friendly to newcomers.
Squads who finally break through and reach the TWLD Finals have had a historically poor success rate:
Cobra (S19) -- Lost to Fierce
Real (S16) -- Lost to Fierce
Sweet (S15) -- Won vs Dice
Quicksand (S13) -- Lost to Thunder
Quake (S12) -- Lost to Thunder
Stray (S11) -- Won vs Thunder
Dice (S10) -- Lost to Syndicate
Force will have to run contrary to historical trends in warbird, as only two squads have managed the feat -- and only one (Stray) beat former champions. Toppling dynasties like Syndicate, Thunder, and Fierce are no easy task.
Both teams feature tons of depth and ample talent, but there are a few distinct differences.
Experience
I've been harping on it all season, but there is no substitute for having been there. Dice has five players who have been in multiple finals. Force has one to have been to any finals period. I expect everyone outside of Skepsis to start out with sweaty fingers and shaking hands on Force -- they will need to stabilize early, slow the game down, and get into rhythm, and keep the game close. Team's who lack experience tend to fall apart if things start badly, and Force needs a good start.
Dice will be calm and collected, and while their fifth in 2pacZ lacks experience, he smokes so much weed before games I doubt he'll get shook, or even realize he's in is the finals. If things go awry, they have a clutch backup in Mega or 2x TWDT-D champ and Finals MVP 24. Ditto Force, who have six starters -- a single bad performer won't sink them -- but two or three will. Dice has the veteran players to comeback from a deficit without panicking. Force probably doesn't have the same luxury, although many of their players play with reckless abandon, so that might mitigate nerves a bit.
Force's best chance to win games are stomps, and avoiding tight matches. They have the all-in personnel in players like Okyo who are willing to live with 18-10 or 5-10 performances with risky, aggressive dives -- and that playstyle paid off against Thunder in the Semi-Finals, avoiding a close late-game that risks falling apart to veteran players, although Dice is far more devoid of players inexperienced against the rush and willing to take bad first shots, so that same style could easily turn the other way and give a disciplined Dice line the counterattack opportunities it is looking for.
If both teams are playing well and the games are tight, I think Dice has the edge in 40-40ish games when the palms start to get sweaty.
Style
Both teams are pretty flexible with the exception of a few players. They both tend to skew towards conservative, team-oriented play, but when they get a lead or start a round up 1-0 in a best-of-three series, they go ultra-aggro and immediately go for the throat and try to push their advantage and go for the stomp, playing with boundless energy and confidence. With the exception of perhaps Okyo and Best, most of the players will amp up the ball of strays if losing and become more recalcitrant, and there are a few masters of staying alive on 9 on each side.
Expect the winner of round one to come in guns blazing round two, trying to end it quickly with a massive stomp and hard rushing, hoping the other team will become demoralized, separated in the spawn, and easy to pick off one by one, then suiciding out in 1-for-1 trades once they have the lead.
There is the possibility we could see three rounds without the losing team hitting 40 once, although warbirding is always difficult to predict given the nature of spawns and strays.
Lag
What Force lacks in experience, they make up for in sheer lag. Attacks, Iron, Okyo, Skepsis and even Siaxis, who lives in Toronto (where my average connection living in 4 different parts of the city was never worse than 40ms 00 00), induces harder than an ER doctor trying to put a burn victim into a coma. These guys are absolute monsters when it comes to eating your bullets then killing you for a +2 swing. At least one player on Dice who I've talked to (I won't say who) has said he has struggled versus laggots in the past, and while Dice are no saints of lag themselves, it could put a crimp in their oft-aggressive style as they try to limit their on-screen engagements and keep Okyo and co. at a distance.
Dice needs to remain extremely disciplined and not go firing first at full energy players who warp back an inch every time they shift-stop, because they're 1) going to miss 2) exposing themselves to talented rushers. Just ask Space God, who ended up on 9 about 45 seconds into round one last Sunday.
Key Players
Mythril -- He is the glue guy. He leads the pushes shifting like Apok without firing to bait easy kills for his teammates, he hovers menacingly to cover for his teammates bad shots or to rush in on enemies' ones, he does all the little things you need to win. After a down season where he wasn't really needed due to the sheer depth of talent Burn had, he has bounced back with a strong season, and timed restarting TWEL with the TWL playoffs to keep himself and Racka active, knowing they would need to carry to win.
Skepsis -- Skepsis has been to seven finals. The rest of his team combined has been to zero. He hasn't been great this year, but he doesn't need to be -- Force has plenty of talent. What they need is a leader, someone who holds the line, stays calm, doesn't choke, and covers up his teammates' mistakes with disciplined shots, smart regrouping, and managing everyone's deaths (*cough, Okyo, cough*)
Best -- Entering his third straight final, Best continues to be a force in TWLD, and with Raazi inactive and questions at the 5, he will need to play at an elite level to win his second straight title. While he is typically a huge asset, he can occasionally stray into liability territory, periodically suffering from a case of the Okyos in dying out way too fast and refusing to compromise his aggressive style with death management.
Iron Survivor -- After a second straight stellar season, Iron finally makes it to his first TWL final. He's been the best player on Potenza and Force, and he will need to play up to his potential for Force to overcome historical hurdles. He has struggled in the clutch, flaming out against Fierce S19 on Thunder and in the TWDT-D 2014 Finals on Power, so he will need to be more psychologically resilient this time around. Carrying the burden of needing to perform as the best player on your team is always difficult, but unlike Ricko most years he has way more assets around him to share the load, and needs to not fall apart late in games with 9-2 starts crumbling into 11-10 finishes.
The 6th Man
Both teams have been bolstered by strong performances off the bench, and while 2pacZ has managed to maintain his starting spot all season, I don't know who is the 6th man on Force, as both Siaxis and Attacks have played well. Tanzu was always a good wb but took the five D's mantra of Patches O'Houlihan a little too seriously, as he dodged, ducked, dipped, dived, and dodged every important game in his path, so it's nice to see him in action. Meanwhile, Attacks followed up a nice season in TWDT-D with a solid season in TWLD, and proved himself after some earlier hiccups.
If Dice is having issues, they can turn to Mega or 24, both of whom have been good. I think Force needs a bit more a collective effort to win, as I think the experience factor means it is more likely one or two of Dice's stars turn in a stratospheric performance, with a possible win combination like: Best (19-9), Raazi (8-8), Mythril (7-9), Racka (15-9), 2pacZ (3-10), while I feel something like this for Force: Skepsis (12-10), Iron (12-8), Okyo (10-10), Cres (8-9), Attacks (8-6) seems more in-line with how they play, although Dice can certainly win with a balanced performance as well.
Final Thoughts
I'm looking forward to this match, and I think it will be fun to see new blood in the TWLD Finals taking on established veterans (and four defending champions.) Both these teams can go extremely aggressive, which is a nice change of pace from Fierce's ultra-conservative stray ball coordinated via Vent that starred in the last five straight finals (and six of the last seven.)
Dice is extremely dangerous. Best and Raazi have combined to make three straight finals, and were big in the playoffs each time. Racka and Mythril have returned to form, and they have a lot of good options as their 5th. They have way more experience, will be better if and when the games get tight, and whether they admit it or not, not having to play Fierce or Thunder in the finals will come as a relief, knowing there isn't an 18 or 19 kill performance from Ease or DEEZ NUTS lurking in the depths to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
This will only be the third TWLD Finals without either DEEZ or Ease since Season 6. The exceptions: Season 8 (-Final- vs. Pirates) and Season 15 (Sweet vs. Dice).
Force has grown organically, and the addition of Skepsis has given them the push they need. They care more and practice harder than anyone, and they have enough depth and talent to take home the crown with a concerted effort. They will need to start slow, and not let games away from them. Their lack of experience continues to be a red flag in my mind -- there is a very real meltdown possibility if things go wrong and they fall behind. Containing the fight-or-flight response and adrenaline and shaky hands is generally something that comes with time -- time which they don't have. I think they can win, but it's probably going to come from playing ahead, and using their aggressive style when they sense blood in the water and trusting that instinct. Playing aggressive and fearless is a good counter to nerves.
Dice has the edge and remain the favorites, and I think the underdog title is something Force will be more than happy to engender -- there's less pressure when everyone expects the defending champs to win. However, both teams have been consistently good all year, and both have realistic chances of claiming the title.
Good luck to both teams!
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