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The TWDT 2019 Semi-Finals take place Sunday, February 24th. Remember, the playoffs start one hour early. Plan accordingly.
In TWDT-D, warbirding powerhouse Terrorist will take on a struggling Gladiator, while a deep Legio roster will lock horns with an underperforming Thunder.
Terrorist
Starters: Racka (10), Ardour (8), Dreamwin (8), Zizzo (7), Ra (7)
Subs: Burnt (9), Paky Dude (8)
Terrorist is Racka's team. They live and die by his hand. He has dominated the entire season, and won the TWDT-D Scoring Race with aplomb, finishing
with a 121-62 record in warbird, giving his team a commanding 8-2 record. They are heavy favorites to win the title.
Ardour, Ra, Dreamwin and Zizzo have proven such a strong supporting cast that Burnt has been relegated to the bench, despite a 25-11 record in two games.
Their 10/8/8/7/7 line smartly avoids the mostly unplayable 6-Stars, avoiding catastrophic scores and ensuring that any time Racka performs, they win.
Dreamwin, Zizzo, and Ra are no strangers to solid performances in TWDT-D, having reached multiple finals with their high resolution monitors, euro lag, and
headbands, while Racka has found his old form and is once again a beast.
If you want the title, you're going to have to go through them.
Gladiator
Starters: Tripin (9), Spezza (9), Kentaro (8), Morph (7), Aprix (7)
Subs: Lockdown (9), Trasher (8), Cape (8)
Gladiator is a team composed of supporting pieces, and they have quickly discovered that playing a game of Chess with nothing but pawns is a difficult
endeavor. Gladiator doesn't have a single player in the Top 16 in Major Crisis's stats. Yikes.
Tripin and Lockdown, fresh off secondary roles as 3rd banana on a championship team in Power (behind Ease and Vys), have melted in the spotlight,
finishing the regular season 70-76 and 60-73, respectively. In a league with unplayable 6-Stars you can feed off of. Egad!
Kentaro, Spezza, Aprix, and Trasher have fared little better.
Morph is one of their lone bright spots, excelling at the 7-Star. Aprix may be a late addition to the starting line at the 7 as well.
This team's warbird chances are on serious life support. Lockdown has looked much, much better lately, slapping people in elim, while Kentaro and Tripin
have been practicing and looking sharper, but the hour is late, and Terrorist is firing on all cylinders.
Their one hope is that Dreamwin/Zizzo/Ra are not warbirds. Lockdown/Tripin/Spezza/Kentaro are. In 1v1 and 2v2 situations, give me Kentaro and Lockdown
all day long over Zizzo and Ra. Those guys would get destroyed. But like we've seen with Lasenza getting dunked on in 5v5, it's a team game, and it's much
harder to expose frauds like Dreamwin and Steadman, i.e. javs masquerading as warbirds because they're vets with good aim, in a TWDT-D setting.
Any good jav can float and fire mid-range shots with the best warbirds. It's when the game whittles down to smaller encounters where real WBs shine. If
Gladiator can keep it close until late in the game, they have a chance.
Will they get a chance, though? Terrorist has confidence, and Racka is a monster. They only need to go 1:1 and let Rack carry. Look for Terror to close this out
early and not give Glad's birds a chance to shine late. This isn't a guaranteed win for Gladiator, despite their daunting 8-2 record, because I don't trust their
supporting cast in the close game late, but I think Gladiator's odds of getting to that stage are relatively slim.
Legio XI
Starters: Mythril (10), Peru (8), Kado (8), Steadman (8), Angelgirl <ZH> (6)
Subs: Flew (8), 1000k (6)
Legio XI are the favorites here, given their captain Mythril had a clear draft plan and executed perfectly: draft all the broken 8-Stars, and then play a line of either
8/8/8/8/8 or insert himself as a 10-Star and play a 10/8/8/8/6. If you were an odd-numbered star, your odds of playing were about 0.00%.
And it worked.
Legio had a strong season, finishing 6-4 and rotating through a large cast to keep their players engaged and showing. Peru finished #2 in the Scoring Race, with
a 120-85 record in 10 games.
Kado, Steadman, and Flew have been solid 8-Stars, giving them plenty of depth.
The only chink in their armor is the 6-Star. Their team is better with Mythril in, but requires playing either 1000k or Angelgirl <ZH>, both liabilities. When Mythril drops 20
(which happens every other round) it's not a problem, but any human-like score from their captain and Legio falls into trouble.
Legio profiles similarly to Terrorist, with a warbirding Juggernaut 10-Star leading their team, and a solid supporting cast, although Terrorist is more balanced across
their 4 support players, while Legio's 2nd banana Peru is much better than Terrorist's, while their 5th is much worse. Should the #1 and #2 seed face each other
in the final, it should be a great match to watch.
Thunder
Starters: Ease (10), Vys (10), JAMAL (7), Major Crisis (7), Felix_da_Kat (6)
Subs: Riverside (9), Engineers (9), Ogron (8), Undercut (7)
Thunder has been a mess in warbird all season, featuring a plethora of big name WBs, with no ability to play most of them due to the star cap restrictions. There has been
little consistency in their lineups, and their results have been erratic.
vys tied Racka for most kills this season, notching an incredible 121 across 10 games, finishing third in the Scoring race with a 121-89 record as Thunder wasted several of
his impressive performances, such as his 14-2 mid-game experimenting with a 4v5 lineup that ended in disaster with vys playing 1v5 and seeing his record erased.
Their preferred line will be a 10/10/7/7/6 featuring Ease, Vys, JAMAL, Major Crisis, and Felix_da_Kat as their only viable 6-Star, although Felix_da_Kat has only shown once, forcing Ease to bench himself in Week 5 and playing Riverside and Undercut instead (which did result in a win.)
Ease is coming off a TWDT-D Championship with Vys, so they have already proven they can win together, although this time around they'll have to do so with a weaker supporting cast, being spoiled with the likes of Tripin, Lockdown and Lews Therin last season.
JAMAL finished 10th in the Scoring Race and has been excellent as a 7-Star, while Major Crisis and Undercut, also both 7s, have been solid, meaning if Ease and Vys play well, they'll have good chances to win.
Thunder's chances hinge mostly on Felix_da_Kat showing. If he doesn't play, their best line gets blown up, and they'll have to play Riverside roulette, and hope he can find his old magic. Sweet legend Engineers is also available at the 9-Star, along with Ogron at the 8-Star. All three could see playtime depending on circumstances. I don't expect any to play should Felix show up and perform decently, however.
Legio XI
Starters: Steadman (10), Kado (9), Rodney (7), Skyforger (7), 1000k
Subs: Mythril (8), Mikkiz (8), Yeh (8), Rab (7), Peru (7)
Legio finished #1 in TWDT-J with a 7-3 record, and looks to be the favorite to win the title, although it is by no means assured as they can only play two javs, some combination of Steadman,
Kado, and Mythril, along with some non-javs and scrubs.
The only two teams with elite javs were Power (Zidane/Tiny) and Silence (Turban/Commodo), meaning it's an open field in TWDT-J.
Steadman finished #4 in the TWDT-J Scoring Race, and is the best javelin left in the playoffs after Ease. He'll lead the way after posting an impressive 109-78. They'll need big performances from him to win the title, as Skyforger and 1000k are weak supporting players.
Rodney is always underestimated but seems to perform and is good value at the 7. As Legio's 3rd best player in any line, he'll need to play great.
Kado and Mythril are very strong 2nd options, and they will form a nice tandem with Steadmon.
Kado finished #7 in the Scoring Race despite only playing 7 games, and has slowly earned veteran respect in jav and base.
Mythril is crazy value at 8-Stars, and gives Legio some different lineup options.
I like their chances, but they certainly aren't as well rounded as they are in WB or Jav -- the back half of their jav line is highly suspect. Then again, so was Power's last year, and they won anyway off the backs of Ease/Zid.
Thunder
Starters: Ease (10), Riverside (8), Major Crisis (8), Undercut (7), Ogron (7)
Subs: JAMAL (8), Spectacular (7)
Thunder has been an unmitigated disaster in javelin all season, but looked much better Week 5, and will probably run out some combination of these 7 players, with JAMAL for Riverside if he doesn't show or plays poorly, and Spectacular for Ogron if they want to start out more aggressive.
Thunder had a 10+ kill lead against Legio yesterday, before their 6-Star died out early with a 1-10, so they clearly have the tools to be effective in the Semi-Finals.
By "tools to be effective", I mean barely neg while Ease drops 20, as Thunder hasn't won a single game without their captain dropping 20. Ease finished with a monster 108-73 in only 8 games,
good for #2 in the league after Zidane.
Kim and Vys had some sporadic success as 9-Stars, but weren't high impact enough and forced unplayable 6-Stars into the lines, which means they're unlikely to see any play time.
Riverside and Major Crisis at the 8s give Ease the push and aggro he needs to be successful and will likely be must adds. JAMAL has been solid and will probably see some time depending on circumstances.
Some combination of Undercut, Spectacular and Ogron will feature at the 7.
None have been particularly good, but good enough for Ease to win, and all three are massive upgrades over their 6s who have been a cornucopia of 0-10, 1-10 and 2-10s.
Gladiator
Starters: Morph (8), Trasher (9), Cape (9), Spezza (7), Destruct (7)
Subs: Trasher (9), Amnesti (9), Aprix (9), Lupin (7)
Gladiator will take on Terrorist in the Semi-Finals, after finishing second in jav with a 6-4 record.
Morph has been a revelation in TWDT this season, decimating TWDT-J with a 116-91 record, finishing #3 in the Scoring Race. He's been their best player this season, and will need to
carry hard if Gladiator is going to reach the Finals.
They have a lot of options at the 9-Star, with elite javelins such as Cape, Amnesti and Aprix, and can also play legendary headband accessorizer Trasher if they want to trade-in pure jav skill for consistency, activity, and smart play.
With a star cap system, there is too much of a good thing, and I'm not sure how they'll choose who plays.
Spezza was labelled the best 7-Star jav in the draft, but has not played as well as expected. Destruct is another solid option at the 7, and is a dedicated jav who provides good value.
This is a good, active team with talent, and they're a dangerous foe, although their most talented javelins aren't super active, and their most active players aren't elite javs. Nevertheless,
they should be able to compete at a high level, and if they can find the right lineup combination, they can win a championship.
Terrorist
Starters: Dreamwin (10), Zizzo (8), Ardour (8), Ra (7), Burnt (7)
Subs: Racka (9), Wirah (6)
Terrorist only managed a 4-6 in TWDT-J this season, as they lack elite javelin depth. Dreamwin will need to hard carry them to a title, and thus far has not played his best this season,
only managing to go 10+ once over his last 7 games, and finishing 78-78 for the season. They'll need a titanic performance from him to advance.
Racka has been their statistically strongest player this season, although I'm having trouble seeing a viable 6-Star in order to add him.
Ardour and Zizzo have played too well and are too good value at 8 to bench.
Ra and Burnt appear to be their main 7s, and have been about as unimpressive as Thunder's 7s, but again, much more viable than 6s.
Dreamwin and Zizzo have a lot of synergy playing together for so long, while Ardour and Ra have been solid across multiple leagues, giving Terrorist some interesting options. This is
a solid team, but I definitely have to favor Gladiator here, given the fact they have way more depth, and Dreamwin isn't + on the season and not carrying, while Morph is, and he has
a better 2nd banana in either Cape, Amnesti, or Aprix.
Terrorist does have the personnel to win, but it will require Dreamwin to go Super Saiyan.
Legio XI
Terr: Mikkiz (10)
Sharks: Mythril (9), Rodney (8)
Spiders: Kado (8), Henry Saari (8), Falconpunch (8), Steadman (8), Magnum Size (7)
Subs: Rab (8), Skyforger (8)
Both Thunder and Legio XI finished 9-1, totaling the most wins in any regular season in TWDT-B history, and losing only to each other, but Legio takes the #1 seed on plus-minus.
The behemoths are favored to face off against each other in the Finals, but Gladiator and Terrorist will have plenty to say about it before then, as both field strong lines.
Mikkiz and Ogron are the two best terriers in the league, and top five all-time, giving Legio one of the safest and most reliable terrs on earth anchoring their backline. One of only
three terrs to win both TWLB and TWDT-B, Mikkiz has also racked up a record 3 TWDT-B titles, and has been a key piece in their success.
Mythril and Rodney have a lot of experience together, having sharked Legio XI last season to the Finals, and are back at it once again, looking shark as ever, and are the backbone
of a Legio squad that is short on spider power. They are the catalyst for their success.
Their ability to not field any low-star spids has been important, given they don't have any hard carries in Henry Saari, Falconpunch and Steadman over. Their under is also quite strong
with Kado doing work. They've struggled against Gladiator's Trasher and Spezza and gotten mowed down in the FR, and if SpookedOne plays as well in the Semi-Finals as he did Week 5,
Gladiator has a big spider edge top with two of the five best spiders to ever play against a bunch of 2nd string 8-Stars top.
Gladiator has been a tough matchup for them, and was the worst possible outcome for a Legio team hungry for a championship, but they should still be slightly favored. They'll need to
pressure Spookedone into mistakes -- something that happened for them the last time they played, but didn't versus Power in a crucial 14-14 game over the flag, where he looked resilient.
Should be an excellent match.
Gladiator
Terr: SpookedOne (6)
Sharks: Mcvicar (10), Morph (8)
Spiders: Trasher (10), Spezza (10), Tripin (8), MVP (7), Lupin (7)
Subs: Cape (10), Sulla (7)
Gladiator will be the underdog going into the Semi-Finals, but don't be fooled. They were favorites heading into the season, and they're still a legitimate contender.
SpookedOne is insane value at 6, and has steadily improved throughout the season, although he is still porting into spawn as of yesterday. He warped into spawn as my burst was about
to hit him and robbed me of a Tek, and has been artificially inflating his KDA in stats... his KDA isn't that high IRL. Nevertheless, while he still makes some mistakes (which is perfectly normal
for a 6-Star... frankly he's playing like a 7.5, which is fantastic given where he started) he showed his mettle in the clutch in a must-win game against Power to make the playoffs late in the game
in the flagroom right up until the end, staying alive, stopping 0.1mm short of an enemy mine hitting the breaks, porting out of danger, fighting for the flag... it made me believe they can topple Legio.
Mcvicar is the defending champ, and one of the best sharks left in the game and will be key to their success. Spooked made some extremely dangerous dives for the flag and Mcv was there attaching juuuuuuuuuuuuuuust in time to save him with key reps on attach and clockwork timing. Without him Spooked out be vampire dust staked 1000x over by Power's spiders. Morph has been a solid partner for him and good value at 8, with an aggressive Oder-like style, which you can get away with in TWDT-B (but not TWLB.)
Trasher and Spezza are two of the greatest spiders to ever play the game in any era, and have completely dominated over. They finished #2 and #3 in Major's stats, behind only Cripple. They're beasts, and the main engine of this team. Sometimes they outkill the enemy by 100 and still lose (as they did versus Thunder yesterday.) These guys are monsters, putting up Herculean numbers, and have no equals in spider. The closest pair of spiders left are Dreamwin/Cripple and Ease/Solace. Legio has no such spiders, and are at a severe disadvantage. I rate Mcvicar and Morph similarly to Mythril and Rodney, meaning the only real edge Legio has is in terr with Mikkiz, and maybe Kado under (although I find Lupin and Tripin are playing well under, too.)
Gladiator is a matchup nightmare for Legio given the massive inequality in overspiders, and could be their downfall. Either way, it should be a fantastic match, and I look forward to watching it on Youtube.
Thunder
Terr: Ogron (10)
Sharks: JAMAL (10), Major Crisis (8)
Spiders: Ease (10), Solace (9), Erias (8), Rozay (7), Felix_da_Kat (6)
Subs: Undercut (8), TJ Hazuki (7), Engineers (7)
Thunder dominated the regular season, going 9-1 and powering their team to the playoffs on the back of one league.
There's a few different lineup variations, including playing Undercut top and swapping out our 6 for another 7-Star, while Erias and TJ are interchangeable and both starters every week.
Ogron will quarterback the line and look to reach his 6th TWDT-B Final in the past 7 seasons, finishing #1 in Major's terr stats on the season.
JAMAL has been a dominant shark alongside Major Crisis, as the duo has fared well throughout the season and should be able to go toe-to-toe with every shark combo left. Power had the only broken shark line with Zidane/Hulk, and they've been eliminated, leaving the field relatively balanced. Mcvicar/Morph, JAMAL/MC, and Mythril/Rodney are all in the same ballpark, with only Terrorist lagging behind in that department with Oder/Markmrw being slightly weaker.
Ease, Solace, and Undercut have been beasts over, and should be able to go toe-to-toe with Gladiator/Terrorist, and outplay Legio. Erias and TJ Hazuki have been good 3rd players over and are excellent value at the 7-Star.
Rozay has been really good for us under all season, starting every game and finishing #6 in Major's spider stats. Felix did well on Sunday in a tough win over Gladiator, and Engineers has improved and picked up some stuff and should be solid after getting outplayed under Week 4 by Kado (who is a very strong under.)
They have the preferred matchup against Terrorist, which is a better out than Gladiator, and should have a decent shot at winning, although it should be a tough playoffs. Terrorist is no slouch, and Legio/Gladiator are very good.
Terrorist
Terr: Burnt (8)
Sharks: Oder (9), Markmrw (8)
Spiders: Dreamwin (10), Cripple (10), Zizzo (8), Maito_Chi (7), Ardour (7)
Subs: Ra (9), Bacon (8), RUCCI (8), Spacedust (7)
Terrorist is probably the least favorite to win of the four basing teams left, but they're still a dangerous team and have enough firepower to win.
They'll play either Burnt or Zizzo, both OK options in terr, with Oder and Mark in shark. Both good sharks, but probably a bit less talented than the other teams pairings.
Where they shine is with Cripple and Dreamwin top, two 10-Star beasts in spider who will have to carry hard to make up for their shortcoming in every other area. Zizzo is arguably the strongest 3rd spider in a top line.
Maito_Chi and Ardour are pretty good value, giving Terrorist some of the best spiders out there overall. They have some good depth with Ra and Bacon, too.
If they fall behind to Thunder in the Semis, I expect them to troll and try to warbird or jav Dreamwin, which never ever works, but hey, it's Dreamwin's thing.
They're a dangerous team, and if opponents don't respect them, they're in for a nasty surprise.
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