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A shorter week makes this easier to type up, so I can push it out a bit quicker. In addition, in this thread I'll explore some of the playoff implications from last week and looking ahead.
I'll let squirtle work on the recap, as he's done a better job than I could hope to. Additionally I'd like to give a shoutout to Mythril and everyone recording games this season. It makes the recaps easier, it builds hype, and let's us actually look at and (hopefully) correct mistakes to improve the level of competition in the zone. Check out the Match Recordings Thread for more.
Before the predictions, I'd like to point out some of the narratives heading into the final week of the season.
Playoff Qualifications
The top 6 teams make the playoffs in TWDT, with the top 2 in each division getting a bye week on October 17. For the quarterfinals, the third seed chooses their opponent from seeds 4-6. 5 teams have already clinched a playoff spot:
TWDTD -
While tiebreakers settle who is actually the #1 seed, it's crazy to see a team with 6/8 (so far) warbird wins being ranked 4th.
The top teams are pretty settled in, but the competition a bit lower is the complete opposite. Funk and Morph currently stand at 9 wins apiece, Blast and Hottub Homeboys have 8 and Paddington sits at 7. Morph and Hottub Homeboys have an extra replay match, which could shake things up even further.
Paddington's playoff chances are dead, as the current bar to reach playoffs will be 10 wins (Morph and Funk play each other twice this weekend). The closest they get:
Another interesting angle for playoff qualifications is the teams that have performed in individual divisions, but slacked elsewhere. If Funk qualifies, they could move to the #5 base spot with a H2H win over Thunder. However, their other two divisions are almost surely going to be 6th. If Morph qualifies, they'll have done so with at max 3 base wins. This could still be enough to secure the #5 spot in javs, which potentially allows them to avoid final-boss Power altogether. Each team ranked 6-9 is there because the suffer in a few divisions, and with the top teams so densely packed, someone has to play Terrorist's mean basing lineup in the quarterfinals, just as someone will have to face Power Javs. Only PF escapes the quarterfinals altogether, though the advantage gained by the bye week has been questioned.
With all that said, here's the predictions
Week 4 Record: 7-1
Season Record: 20-12
Kobe vs Thunder
Kobe 15 - 9 Thunder
As I mentioned above, this match determines the #4 seed in basing. However, as the #4 spot doesn't really come with advantages, this could very well be a preview of quarterfinals.
Kobe has been all-upside recently, winning 3 of their last 4. Thunder has looked lost without kess, playing understarred and losing 3 of their last 4. Lionheart has proven a tremendous FA value pickup at 8*, but Kobe's own pickup, Hawkeye, has proven to be a bit better. With 3-4 different lineups depending on who actually shows, Kobe has the depth to hang with the big boys, something Thunder is lacking at the moment. Still, this is a bit of a throwaway game as standings are more or less locked at this point.
Power vs Hottub Homeboys
Power 15 - 8 Hottub Homeboys
The Homeboys are fighting for their season, and put up good numbers. However, Power can't afford an L at risk of giving away their top seed in base (I may be mistaken, but if Power loses and PF and Terrorist win, Power slides to third place). Power looked vulnerable after a bad loss to Terrorist, but in turn they throttled Thunder showing the resilience of a top team. Hottub lost to the very same Thunder team, as their shark woes seemed to worsen. Zidane and team know how to abuse a shark advantage; it will be up to Renzi's three top spiders to offset.
Blast vs Terrorist
Blast 13 - 15 Terrorist
Like Hottub vs Power above, Blast is fighting for their lives, but Terrorist doesn't really care. However, this game will be closer than it looks. Even with a Terrorist L and a Kobe win, the teams sit tied at 6 wins but Terrorist has the H2H win.
Paddington vs Piwirfil Fingirmin
Paddington 7 - 15 Piwirfil Fingirmin
PF still has enough juice to get the job done, but I feel like its worth mentioning how close they are to an 0-8 team. Their net time differential (time for - time against) is only 3 minutes 10 seconds. Granted, unlike all the other teams, they haven't played Paddington yet.
Morph vs Funk
Morph 13 - 15 Funk
This could be match of the week, or it could be very disappointing. Morph has proven they can put up respectable scores against top teams (15-14:50 loss to PF) or they flop (15-1:22 loss to Power). They seem to pass the eye test, but I said that looking at their team before week 1 as well. Funk broke out of their funk week 4, and looks to cap the season off with a playoff qualifying win.
REMATCH
Hottub Homeboys vs Morph
HH 15 - 11 Morph
Like I said above, Morph is hard to predict. This game gets even harder, as it will be the very last of the season. While this could have qualification implications, as Morph has to 2-0 Funk to even be in contention. Hottub also faces a gauntlet trying to qualify- they need to win at least 2 against Thunders WBs (Tied #1), Terrorists Javs (tied #1) and Powers Basers (#1) AND beat Morph AND get lucky with Morph vs Funk for them to steal the #6 spot. They currently have the H2H wins over Funk, but have lost those to Morph. So in theory if Morph only beats Paladdengton this weekend, they have 10 wins, Funk goes 2-1 for 11 wins, and HH goes 2-2 for 11 wins, they've made it. Easier than Paddington I guess.
As for actual predictions, I'm predicting both teams are already mathematically eliminated by 3:30. Still, under the spot light of everyone in the zone, I'm hoping we see some good basing.
Thoughts? Objections? I'm a (1) title bozo? Let's hear it below. Let's talk basing!
I'll let squirtle work on the recap, as he's done a better job than I could hope to. Additionally I'd like to give a shoutout to Mythril and everyone recording games this season. It makes the recaps easier, it builds hype, and let's us actually look at and (hopefully) correct mistakes to improve the level of competition in the zone. Check out the Match Recordings Thread for more.
Before the predictions, I'd like to point out some of the narratives heading into the final week of the season.
Playoff Qualifications
The top 6 teams make the playoffs in TWDT, with the top 2 in each division getting a bye week on October 17. For the quarterfinals, the third seed chooses their opponent from seeds 4-6. 5 teams have already clinched a playoff spot:
- Power
- Piwirfil Fingirmin
- Terrorist
- Thunder
- Kobe.
TWDTD -
- Piwirfil Fingirmin (6 wins, H2H over Power*, Thunder*, Terrorist)
- Thunder (6 wins, H2H over Terrorist*, Power)
- Power/Terrorist (6 wins each, H2H match this weekend)
- Terrorist (5 wins, H2H win over Power*, PF)
- Piwirfil Fingirmin (5 wins, H2H win over Power)
- Power (5 wins)
- Thunder (4 wins, H2H over Kobe*)
- Kobe (4 wins)
- Power (7 wins)
- Piwirfil Fingirmin (6 wins, H2H win over Terrorist*)
- Terrorist (6 wins)
- Kobe (5 wins)/Thunder (4 wins) (H2H match this weekend)
While tiebreakers settle who is actually the #1 seed, it's crazy to see a team with 6/8 (so far) warbird wins being ranked 4th.
The top teams are pretty settled in, but the competition a bit lower is the complete opposite. Funk and Morph currently stand at 9 wins apiece, Blast and Hottub Homeboys have 8 and Paddington sits at 7. Morph and Hottub Homeboys have an extra replay match, which could shake things up even further.
Paddington's playoff chances are dead, as the current bar to reach playoffs will be 10 wins (Morph and Funk play each other twice this weekend). The closest they get:
- Paddington wins out, beating Blast in WB, Morph in Jav and PF in Base. (10 wins, winning H2H tie breaker over HH, Morph, losing tiebreaker to Blast, Funk)
- Hottub Homeboys wins their replay match against Morph, but loses all their other matches (Thunder in DTD, Terrorist in DTJ, Power in DTB), ending with 9 wins
- Blast loses everything this weekend, and ends up with only 8 wins.
- Morph loses to HH in the replay and splits their WB and Base series with Funk and loses to Paddington in Jav. (10 wins, losing tiebreaker to Paddington)
- Funk splits their WB and Base series with Morph, winning one match narrowly and losing the other badly and loses their jav match against Thunder (10 wins, but still has tiebreak wins over Paddington and Morph). Funk emerges #6 seed, but narrowly.
Another interesting angle for playoff qualifications is the teams that have performed in individual divisions, but slacked elsewhere. If Funk qualifies, they could move to the #5 base spot with a H2H win over Thunder. However, their other two divisions are almost surely going to be 6th. If Morph qualifies, they'll have done so with at max 3 base wins. This could still be enough to secure the #5 spot in javs, which potentially allows them to avoid final-boss Power altogether. Each team ranked 6-9 is there because the suffer in a few divisions, and with the top teams so densely packed, someone has to play Terrorist's mean basing lineup in the quarterfinals, just as someone will have to face Power Javs. Only PF escapes the quarterfinals altogether, though the advantage gained by the bye week has been questioned.
With all that said, here's the predictions
Week 4 Record: 7-1
Season Record: 20-12
Kobe vs Thunder
Kobe 15 - 9 Thunder
As I mentioned above, this match determines the #4 seed in basing. However, as the #4 spot doesn't really come with advantages, this could very well be a preview of quarterfinals.
Kobe has been all-upside recently, winning 3 of their last 4. Thunder has looked lost without kess, playing understarred and losing 3 of their last 4. Lionheart has proven a tremendous FA value pickup at 8*, but Kobe's own pickup, Hawkeye, has proven to be a bit better. With 3-4 different lineups depending on who actually shows, Kobe has the depth to hang with the big boys, something Thunder is lacking at the moment. Still, this is a bit of a throwaway game as standings are more or less locked at this point.
Power vs Hottub Homeboys
Power 15 - 8 Hottub Homeboys
The Homeboys are fighting for their season, and put up good numbers. However, Power can't afford an L at risk of giving away their top seed in base (I may be mistaken, but if Power loses and PF and Terrorist win, Power slides to third place). Power looked vulnerable after a bad loss to Terrorist, but in turn they throttled Thunder showing the resilience of a top team. Hottub lost to the very same Thunder team, as their shark woes seemed to worsen. Zidane and team know how to abuse a shark advantage; it will be up to Renzi's three top spiders to offset.
Blast vs Terrorist
Blast 13 - 15 Terrorist
Like Hottub vs Power above, Blast is fighting for their lives, but Terrorist doesn't really care. However, this game will be closer than it looks. Even with a Terrorist L and a Kobe win, the teams sit tied at 6 wins but Terrorist has the H2H win.
Paddington vs Piwirfil Fingirmin
Paddington 7 - 15 Piwirfil Fingirmin
PF still has enough juice to get the job done, but I feel like its worth mentioning how close they are to an 0-8 team. Their net time differential (time for - time against) is only 3 minutes 10 seconds. Granted, unlike all the other teams, they haven't played Paddington yet.
Morph vs Funk
Morph 13 - 15 Funk
This could be match of the week, or it could be very disappointing. Morph has proven they can put up respectable scores against top teams (15-14:50 loss to PF) or they flop (15-1:22 loss to Power). They seem to pass the eye test, but I said that looking at their team before week 1 as well. Funk broke out of their funk week 4, and looks to cap the season off with a playoff qualifying win.
REMATCH
Hottub Homeboys vs Morph
HH 15 - 11 Morph
Like I said above, Morph is hard to predict. This game gets even harder, as it will be the very last of the season. While this could have qualification implications, as Morph has to 2-0 Funk to even be in contention. Hottub also faces a gauntlet trying to qualify- they need to win at least 2 against Thunders WBs (Tied #1), Terrorists Javs (tied #1) and Powers Basers (#1) AND beat Morph AND get lucky with Morph vs Funk for them to steal the #6 spot. They currently have the H2H wins over Funk, but have lost those to Morph. So in theory if Morph only beats Paladdengton this weekend, they have 10 wins, Funk goes 2-1 for 11 wins, and HH goes 2-2 for 11 wins, they've made it. Easier than Paddington I guess.
As for actual predictions, I'm predicting both teams are already mathematically eliminated by 3:30. Still, under the spot light of everyone in the zone, I'm hoping we see some good basing.
Thoughts? Objections? I'm a (1) title bozo? Let's hear it below. Let's talk basing!
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