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TWDTB Semifinals Preview
I broke this one out into 2 posts because walls of text aren't friendly on this forum interface.
Power vs Kobe
Power opted to face the remaining lowest seed Kobe for their semifinal match. Power won their week 2 faceoff 15-8:31, though that Kobe team looks a little bit different than their playoff caliber line.
Swapping out Best, Lupin and Scurvy for JacKie>, Rough and hawkeye... uhh.. definitely improves the line.
Power comes off rested after a bye week, though at least half their starting line is hyper active, playing in multiple BDs in the 24 hours since the quarterfinals ended. Power's only big change is subbing out HellzNo! for beam, and switching beam to shark, mvp to spider. This line has been elite this season, only falling to Terrorist. Power has had a very strong bounce back since their game against Terrorist, crushing Thunder and Hottub Homeboys. What I said about Power before Week 4 still stands- they have vulnerabilities, and it's up to their opponent, Kobe, to take advantage.
Position comparisons:
Terrier- Pressure vs RageRitual
I give Pressure the advantage here. He's clearly one of the best in the zone, and while TWDT can be a challenge for a 10* terrier, Pressure has proven capable of handling it. Rage is very effective in TWDT, but in a head to head comparison I'd take the 10*. Advantage Kobe.
Shark- Joeses/JacKie> vs Zidane/beam
This is an interesting comparison, as both teams feature a very strong, high star shark and an underrated and effective low star. Of these 4, I'm most worried about how JacKie> will hold up. Strong sharking will be crucial against a campier and opportunistic pushing Power squad, and JacKie>'s 2.78 RPD in a close match against Funk likely allowed some of those Commodo bombs through. JacKie> followed this up with a 2.76 in the game 2 routing of Funk, which is more permissable only because they won. Going back to previous weeks we see JacKie> with stronger RPDs in close games, which indicates a level of focus needed against Zidane and his spiders. Much of these same things can be said about beam, but beam has sharked in TWDT finals before (not to mention any wb accomplishments) and should keep cool(er) under pressure. Advantage Power.
Over Spiders- Hawkeye/Jurassic/Ekko/Rough vs Henry/posiedon/mvp/vys
I'm admittedly not as knowledgable about spider, as I'd take the smart, experienced pushing spiders over the less proven crew from Power. Still, zid has drafted an incredible, underrated line and can abuse their relative advantages elsewhere. Jz will likely be unable to match Aagi under, forcing Rough to play down more. Smart pressure on Kobe's sharks could force some disruptions and frustration. However, Kobe's spiders are still some of the most dominant in the league and I expect them to be as troublesome for Power as they were for Funk. Advantage Kobe.
Under Spiders- Jz/Rough vs Aagi/vys?
Aagi is a monster on under, and Jz will face trouble shutting him out. However, it's in Power's best interest to try to keep a number advantage on over. If Aagi can prove sufficiently annoying to draw the attention of Rough without having to bring someone else in to help, he'll have done more than his share. Advantage Power.
Overall, this looks to be a very competitive game, featuring many TWL level players spread across two of the best teams in the league. In the end, I think Kobe has a better team composition and will win in 2 close games, both around 15-12:30.
Piwirfil Fingirmin vs Terrorist
I try not to predict my own team, as it just leads to heartbreak. But I will talk about PF a bit. I noted before week 5 that PF, the number 2 overall seed, had a net time differential of only 3:10. Their convincing win over last place Paddington upped this to 16:45. For Terrorist, including their week 1 loss to PF, this number is 26:31. Not counting Terrorists week 1 games with a different terrier, and that number moves to 34:31. Just to be fair, removing week 3 where viop had lag issues and PF suffered their only losses, their time differential increases to only 22:30. I guess what I'm saying is, PF plays close.
Actual, useful analysis of PF is difficult, as they haven't played the same line week to week. Weeks 3 and 5, they were missing viop. Week 4, they animeboy12 was missing and they played clefairy in shark. Their terrier and spiders have been more consistent, and luckily that is where PF has their bigger investments. Frozen Throne has proven extremely solid for PF in terrier, which I don't find surprising at all. Sarger is an absolute beast and brethal and clefairy can easily hold their own. Bacon has sharked and spidered this season, but I don't think he's worth it as shark. Hopefully with a bye week and this being playoffs, we actually see a PF line worth 68*, something they only do with everyone showing.
Besides that, my recommendation to my team will be simple: shoot their sharks, hold the games, don't let stupid mistakes ruin us. We gave up a massive lead in our week 1 loss- hold it together a bit longer and we should be fine.
Week 1 lines:
Thoughts? Disagreements? Feel like insulting me or one of your sharks? Let's hear it below. Let's talk basing.
I broke this one out into 2 posts because walls of text aren't friendly on this forum interface.
Power vs Kobe
Power opted to face the remaining lowest seed Kobe for their semifinal match. Power won their week 2 faceoff 15-8:31, though that Kobe team looks a little bit different than their playoff caliber line.
Code:
[TWDTB] Kobe vs. Power 8:31 - 15:00 19 Sep 2021 21:16:50 ,--D*--------------------,-------K-----D----TK---FT--TeKs-DoAK-R/B/%---Rtg--LO---Note------------------Time--. | 65.5 Kobe / 435 | 483 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 10 | | 751 | 0 | Lose (-6:29) 23:34 | |----------------------' | | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 Best 81 | 62 | | | | 1 | 9% | 102 | | | | 7.5 Ekko (S) 5 | 96 | 0 | 6 | | | 2.9 | 74 | | | | 9 JOESES (S) 7 | 97 | 2 | 8 | 2 | | 2.9 | 103 | | | | 9 JURASSIC 107 | 67 | | 1 | | 4 | 13% | 127 | | | | 6 Jz 52 | 55 | | 1 | | 1 | 6% | 76 | | | | 8.5 Lupin 89 | 46 | | 4 | | 1 | 11% | 110 | | | | 10 Pressure =T= 34 | 5 | | 2 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 76 | | | | 7 Scurvy 60 | 55 | | | 1 | 1 | 9% | 83 | | | +------------------------,----------+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+------+---+-----------------------------+ | 68 Power / 481 | 445 | 10 | 22 | 5 | 13 | | 956 | 1 | Win (+6:29) 23:34 | |----------------------' | | | | | | | | | | | 9 aaGi 83 | 42 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11% | 127 | | | | 7.5 HellzNo! 73 | 86 | | 3 | | 3 | 12% | 124 | 1 | | | 8 *Henry Saari 112 | 32 | | 2 | | | 12% | 150 | | | | 8 mvp (S) 9 | 97 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2.9 | 101 | | | | 8.5 poseidon 77 | 41 | | | 1 | 4 | 9% | 131 | | | | 8.5 RageRitual =T= 27 | 4 | | 1 | | 1 | 16 | 84 | | | | 8.5 vys 93 | 43 | | | 1 | 3 | 10% | 141 | | | | 10 zidane (S) 7 | 100 | 6 | 7 | 1 | | 3.0 | 98 | | | `------------------------------------------R=RPD---B=Bursts---%=K/Bul--------------I=IN---O=OUT---S=SWITCH---'
Power comes off rested after a bye week, though at least half their starting line is hyper active, playing in multiple BDs in the 24 hours since the quarterfinals ended. Power's only big change is subbing out HellzNo! for beam, and switching beam to shark, mvp to spider. This line has been elite this season, only falling to Terrorist. Power has had a very strong bounce back since their game against Terrorist, crushing Thunder and Hottub Homeboys. What I said about Power before Week 4 still stands- they have vulnerabilities, and it's up to their opponent, Kobe, to take advantage.
Position comparisons:
Terrier- Pressure vs RageRitual
I give Pressure the advantage here. He's clearly one of the best in the zone, and while TWDT can be a challenge for a 10* terrier, Pressure has proven capable of handling it. Rage is very effective in TWDT, but in a head to head comparison I'd take the 10*. Advantage Kobe.
Shark- Joeses/JacKie> vs Zidane/beam
This is an interesting comparison, as both teams feature a very strong, high star shark and an underrated and effective low star. Of these 4, I'm most worried about how JacKie> will hold up. Strong sharking will be crucial against a campier and opportunistic pushing Power squad, and JacKie>'s 2.78 RPD in a close match against Funk likely allowed some of those Commodo bombs through. JacKie> followed this up with a 2.76 in the game 2 routing of Funk, which is more permissable only because they won. Going back to previous weeks we see JacKie> with stronger RPDs in close games, which indicates a level of focus needed against Zidane and his spiders. Much of these same things can be said about beam, but beam has sharked in TWDT finals before (not to mention any wb accomplishments) and should keep cool(er) under pressure. Advantage Power.
Over Spiders- Hawkeye/Jurassic/Ekko/Rough vs Henry/posiedon/mvp/vys
I'm admittedly not as knowledgable about spider, as I'd take the smart, experienced pushing spiders over the less proven crew from Power. Still, zid has drafted an incredible, underrated line and can abuse their relative advantages elsewhere. Jz will likely be unable to match Aagi under, forcing Rough to play down more. Smart pressure on Kobe's sharks could force some disruptions and frustration. However, Kobe's spiders are still some of the most dominant in the league and I expect them to be as troublesome for Power as they were for Funk. Advantage Kobe.
Under Spiders- Jz/Rough vs Aagi/vys?
Aagi is a monster on under, and Jz will face trouble shutting him out. However, it's in Power's best interest to try to keep a number advantage on over. If Aagi can prove sufficiently annoying to draw the attention of Rough without having to bring someone else in to help, he'll have done more than his share. Advantage Power.
Overall, this looks to be a very competitive game, featuring many TWL level players spread across two of the best teams in the league. In the end, I think Kobe has a better team composition and will win in 2 close games, both around 15-12:30.
Piwirfil Fingirmin vs Terrorist
I try not to predict my own team, as it just leads to heartbreak. But I will talk about PF a bit. I noted before week 5 that PF, the number 2 overall seed, had a net time differential of only 3:10. Their convincing win over last place Paddington upped this to 16:45. For Terrorist, including their week 1 loss to PF, this number is 26:31. Not counting Terrorists week 1 games with a different terrier, and that number moves to 34:31. Just to be fair, removing week 3 where viop had lag issues and PF suffered their only losses, their time differential increases to only 22:30. I guess what I'm saying is, PF plays close.
Actual, useful analysis of PF is difficult, as they haven't played the same line week to week. Weeks 3 and 5, they were missing viop. Week 4, they animeboy12 was missing and they played clefairy in shark. Their terrier and spiders have been more consistent, and luckily that is where PF has their bigger investments. Frozen Throne has proven extremely solid for PF in terrier, which I don't find surprising at all. Sarger is an absolute beast and brethal and clefairy can easily hold their own. Bacon has sharked and spidered this season, but I don't think he's worth it as shark. Hopefully with a bye week and this being playoffs, we actually see a PF line worth 68*, something they only do with everyone showing.
Besides that, my recommendation to my team will be simple: shoot their sharks, hold the games, don't let stupid mistakes ruin us. We gave up a massive lead in our week 1 loss- hold it together a bit longer and we should be fine.
Week 1 lines:
Code:
[TWDTB5] Piwirfil Fingirmin vs. Terr 15:00 - 12:53 12 Sep 2021 21:15:38 ,--D*--------------------,-------K-----D----TK---FT--TeKs-DoAK-R/B/%---Rtg--LO---Note------------------Time--. | 65.5 Piwirfil Fingirm / 554 | 533 | 8 | 19 | 12 | 24 | | 836 | 0 | Win (+2:07) 27:55 | |----------------------' | | | | | | | | | | | 9 animeboy12 (S) 19 | 105 | 1 | 4 | 2 | | 2.7 | 120 | | | | 9 Bacon 39 | 31 | | 2 | 1 | | 9% | | | O > uprise 13:15 | | 8 *brethal 116 | 63 | | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14% | 149 | | | | 8 clefairy27 118 | 63 | | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12% | 140 | | | | 7 FLEW 63 | 58 | | | | | 8% | 98 | | Switch to Warbird 27:47 | | 9 FROZEN THRONE =T= 34 | 8 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 106 | | | | 10 sarger 106 | 71 | | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12% | 137 | | | | 6.5 uprise 42 | 26 | | | 1 | 1 | 7% | | | I > Bacon 13:15 | | 8 violence (S) 17 | 108 | 7 | 7 | | 2 | 2.9 | 86 | | | +------------------------,----------+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+------+---+-----------------------------+ | 68 Terrorist / 525 | 558 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 17 | | 839 | 0 | Lose (-2:07) 27:55 | |----------------------' | | | | | | | | | | | 8.5 Banks 98 | 65 | | 1 | | 3 | 12% | 116 | | | | 10 dreamwin 99 | 68 | | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12% | 114 | | Switch to Javelin 26:24 | | 10 dreamwin <J> 0 | 3 | 0 | | | | 0% | 114 | | Switch to Spider 26:48 | | 10 dreamwin 3 | 1 | | | | | 17% | 114 | | Switch to Javelin 27:28 | | 10 dreamwin 0 | 1 | | 1 | | | 0% | 114 | | | | 8.5 maketso 82 | 52 | | | | 2 | 8% | 111 | | | | 9 Markmrw (S) 15 | 113 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2.8 | 98 | | | | 7.5 PureOwnage 79 | 70 | | | 3 | 2 | 9% | 115 | | | | 8 Rasaq 101 | 58 | | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12% | 123 | | | | 7.5 warportal =T= 30 | 12 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 79 | | | | 9 WillBy (S) 18 | 115 | 2 | 4 | | 1 | 2.7 | 83 | | | `------------------------------------------R=RPD---B=Bursts---%=K/Bul--------------I=IN---O=OUT---S=SWITCH---'
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