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TWDJB finals predictions

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  • TWDJB finals predictions

    Unlike in jav or wb, we have totally surprise package in the base finals. 2 lowest ranking base teams, who made it playoffs will match up. Whoever will win, it is already a big surprise, as 2 favorites Power and Win or Die were eliminated in semifinals.

    Pure Luck - Tinys team has really pulled a massive surprise here. Getting only 6 wins from 14 games in main season, somehow they are in finals. Tiny (7*) has played the low-star terrier, and done decent enough job, which has allowed to lineup stronger spiders (mouse (10), hellkite (9.5), tj hazuki (8.5)) and sharks (mainly jamal (10) and markmrw (9), but at times also zapata (7.5). Product as 6.5* spider has done really well and is very underrated in that, by far the best low-star spider in this league. For semis, also zapata took role as spider and did well, which shows tiny is not really afraid to test things and has options available, it is also good to have versatile players on team.
    Pure Luck basing actually started getting momentum near the end of main season, where they beat their final opponents terrorist. Crimson was really outplayed in quarters and in semis, they sort of also benefited from Powers arrogance. After winning first game, power decided to put in ogron as terrier, making team unbalanced and having to use 3 low-star spiders and lost. In last round they switched back to original setup, but by that time Pure Luck had already momentum and won in very close game getting it to finals. Considering that Power had only lost 1 base game before the semi matchup, this comes as one of the biggest surprise in recent draft leagues.

    Terrorist - Terrorist making it to finals is also quite a bit of surprise. Their team is setup in similar way with jackie (7.5) playing as low-star terrier, backed up with experienced sharks (sprackle (9.5) and cig smoke (8)) and very strong spiders in dreamwin (10), autopilot (9.5) and brethal (9). Both lower-star spiders hellzno (7.5) and unlimited (7) have done good job as well, playing at times above their vp level. Dreamwin has played many games as terrier as well with jackie playing as shark, but feels like previously described line setup seems to be working best for the team.
    From other players also wbm and tripin have featured, but look to be on bench for now.
    Unlike pure luck, terrorist actually also had some luck. In quarters they did defeat vios team fair and square, i would say mainly due to switching jackie to terrier. In semis though, they had to face win or die, who was missing key piece of the puzzle for their lineup, highest rated terrier in this season zizu. Win or die tried different things, but playing with 66.5* lineup without dedicated terrier makes it hard to put up a fight. This is why at times, versatility in players and great subs can determine the outcome of the league and strong main season means really nothing.

    So what to expect from finals. 2 evenly matched teams who against all odds get to fight for title. Not much can be taken from their previous encounters as they have changed setup since then (1-1 by the way). Both have lower star terriers, with very strong shark lineup, some top spiders and underrated low-star spiders in their lineup. Expecting 3-match faceoff, but gut-feeling makes me prefer Terrorist in the end.
    13
    Pure Luck will win
    38.46%
    5
    Terrorist will win
    61.54%
    8

  • #2
    Yeah it was lame losing the semi because our terr didn't show, we just didn't have enough people to put someone else in terr without leaving a big gap elsewhere. I think we had too many teams for the signups this season.

    I find it interesting that the stars are spent in very similar ways.
    I was impressed with Unlimited holding under solo for 7*, definitely a broken rating.
    product at 6.5* spider is also broken.
    I'd like to see zap make a permanent switch to spider, he's better than I expected, and it's a much easier life to be a value spider than a weak shark.

    The result is too close to call, but mark is a massive cunt so Terrorist gets my vote.

    Comment


    • #3
      The reality is we had rabbit! lagout multiple times in every round and then played 7v8 for nearly a minute and a half when the game was being decided in the final minutes of round 3. Arrogance or not, if those things don't happen our odds of winning skyrocket. that's part of the game and PL played well, but lets not pretend those things didn't impact the game.

      In our DTJ semis vs PL, Zizzo no showed and PL's line was considerably worse because they didn't have a replacement. it goes both ways and many, many leagues have been decided off things other than skill.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by zidane View Post
        The reality is we had rabbit! lagout multiple times in every round and then played 7v8 for nearly a minute and a half when the game was being decided in the final minutes of round 3. Arrogance or not, if those things don't happen our odds of winning skyrocket. that's part of the game and PL played well, but lets not pretend those things didn't impact the game.

        In our DTJ semis vs PL, Zizzo no showed and PL's line was considerably worse because they didn't have a replacement. it goes both ways and many, many leagues have been decided off things other than skill.
        Didnt really see last game, in any case, as i had chance to play vs rabbit!, it is no surprise that dude lags out, remember him just tanking like crazy. But yea showups and lagouts have always affected draft league, especially base as teams are small and any missing player will hurt much worse.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Rab View Post
          Yeah it was lame losing the semi because our terr didn't show, we just didn't have enough people to put someone else in terr without leaving a big gap elsewhere. I think we had too many teams for the signups this season.

          I find it interesting that the stars are spent in very similar ways.
          I was impressed with Unlimited holding under solo for 7*, definitely a broken rating.
          product at 6.5* spider is also broken.
          I'd like to see zap make a permanent switch to spider, he's better than I expected, and it's a much easier life to be a value spider than a weak shark.

          The result is too close to call, but mark is a massive cunt so Terrorist gets my vote.
          Whatsapp'ed Rab this season, said he wasn't going to make it much, don't pick him.......... He squeaked in 11 games...LOL
          1:waven> u challenge
          1:waven> if i challenge it looks too scary

          Originally posted by MHz
          Hope you contract ebola from your, no doubt cheap, Easter Egg, you fucking shit-jav, pug-faced cunt.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by zidane View Post
            In our DTJ semis vs PL, Zizzo no showed and PL's line was considerably worse because they didn't have a replacement. it goes both ways and many, many leagues have been decided off things other than skill.
            Bugy had his time to shine and screwed us for 3 weeks. Thanks bugy

            P.S. I'm taking over basing now zid, watch out!
            1:waven> u challenge
            1:waven> if i challenge it looks too scary

            Originally posted by MHz
            Hope you contract ebola from your, no doubt cheap, Easter Egg, you fucking shit-jav, pug-faced cunt.

            Comment


            • #7
              2m pubbux on pure luck

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Tiny View Post
                Whatsapp'ed Rab this season, said he wasn't going to make it much, don't pick him.......... He squeaked in 11 games...LOL
                I already explained this to Tiny, but for everyone else's benefit...

                When it was 6 teams and I had basically quit playing I signed up on the off-chance I'd want to play some basing (because there's no other basing in my time zone). There were ample players for 6 teams so there would be no issue with me not showing. I also had other plans for several weeks that I expected would prevent me from playing even if I wanted to. This is when Tiny messaged me, so I gave him the honest answer.

                Then teams changed to 8, I wasn't convinced there were enough players for 8 teams but was assured there were. After seeing the draft result it was obvious my team would struggle in basing if I didn't show, and perhaps would also struggle to make the stars fit in jav. I didn't see any way around it other than to play. My other plans ended up fitting around twdt so it wasn't a conflict. Perhaps I shouldn't have signed up at all, but seeing as I did sign up, and my team had problems I could solve, it was my responsibility to show up.

                At the end of the day an expected show rate is just an expectation, it can change. I did consider the option of sticking to my original show rate just for the sake of not having misled Tiny, but that isn't better than showing up for the benefit of the whole league. I also considered not answering show rate questions at all to avoid setting any expectation, but I don't think that's better either.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Huge finals. Shout out to Tiny and all of Pure Luck for upset after upset. They were bottom of the barrel in seeding and have just turned it on. I remember just the whole zone just shocked when they curb stomped Crimson.

                  I have to root for my man DW and Terrorist here though. My Juice boys: Hellz, Jackie, and Brethal in finals. Jackie has been in two finals now, last season as shark and now it appears as terrier, a true multi-tool (spoiler alert: he can spider too). Brethal is a basing staple since his return to the game, and Hellz is an aggro spider who will break crams non stop.

                  Cig and Sprackle are OP. Unlimited and AP, my EG bros going to tear it up in ship 3. Unlimited on under this year has really been tearing it up and we noticed in quarters when he slapped Shittermen.

                  Big shout out to my man Lee for always taking the time to write these things that keep the hype up in our leagues from EG to TW!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thanks for the writeup Lee and all!

                    Comment

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