[TW MAFIA] Western Chronicles

[the_paul]

Don't worry. Whether you're scum or not, this day phase will get you all that last 1% to make me 100% confirmed town. Like I said, I have a mafia member I'm going to get lynched today, just didn't want to stomp out any dialogue by coming at them right away.

Unless you guys think I am actually leading a lynch on every mafia member besides myself? Do I need to make it 99.9% confirmed?

I'm pretty sure I'm the only one that has this thought. And again, I do not think this is happening, it's a nagging possibility that I cannot shake. But, you've been nothing but an asset, and I have been following this train since day 1, so who am I to raise any suspicions? I'm paranoid, and I'm not going to 100% trust you either until the game is over. But you've been a tremendous asset, not even I can deny that.

[the_paul]

a lot is now depending on the bodyguard refutation that voth is asking for. unless youre suggesting this is a ploy to get the real bodyguard to come to him

If I am going to continue being cynical, I would say that he is asking for this as a smokescreen to throw us off. If he is mafia, it doesn't make any different who the bodyguard is, because at this point there is (realistically, but theoretically) nobody left to kill him at night. The only reason he would care about the bodyguard is if A) he is town and worried about survival/vetting a potentially bogus roleclaim, or B) more mafia misdirection to distract us. It is more than likely, highly highly probably that Voth is town, but I've been cynical and paranoid forever here, it's just in my nature. And if it is still a statistical possibility, I'm going to treat it as such. But this is probably nothing, and now I'm the one distracting people, so I'm going to stop beating a dead horse and wait for the rest of these lists. I've already made the direction that I plan on going clear, until we're given a better option.

[Zeebu]

a lot is now depending on the bodyguard refutation that voth is asking for. unless youre suggesting this is a ploy to get the real bodyguard to come to him

actually, scratch that. whats it matter if voth is mafia and finds the actual bodyguard or not? we're likely down to only the mafia as the remaining killing role and voth as mafia wouldnt care about bodyguard in that case.

the only reason voth can possible care about finding the bodyguard is to refute someone who has already claimed it, so he's scumhunting

that should, in my opinion, confirm voth as town

[Voth]

You know what, fellas, I know this probably is a real shit thing to do, but I don't think I should post a list. Any good scum mafia players will be able to read into my list and peg possible targets for my cop and the alleged Bodyguard who claimed to me in PM also. If it was just the Bodyguard, I wouldn't care, because I have commuter powers and I can survive long enough without my Bodyguard to finish this game for sure. But, I do care about keeping the cop around. The last mafia member is going to be a 50/50 gamble unless someone wants to challenge the Bodyguard, and it would help tremendously to have the cop around, for obvious reasons.

My point is, if I post a list right now, I'm going to be fluffing it and quite frantically, lying for a lot of it, if not all of it. It seems pretty useless. I have a cop who I 90% believe is town and sane, and I have a Bodyguard that I am vetting right now. If I post a list, it's either a roadmap for the mafia to our cop or just a bunch of lies/nonsense to throw them off.

Any thoughts on this?

Just wanna re-post this since I think it got buried. Anyone have an issue with my abstaining from a list for the above reasons?

Let's be honest. I've told you guys that I have a 99% mafia in my pocket for today, and if they flip town, obviously that is when there is time to worry (for me too, because I've trusted the wrong people).

[Zeebu]

Just wanna re-post this since I think it got buried. Anyone have an issue with my abstaining from a list for the above reasons?

Let's be honest. I've told you guys that I have a 99% mafia in my pocket for today, and if they flip town, obviously that is when there is time to worry (for me too, because I've trusted the wrong people).

ok the way that was worded make it sound like not me

[Zeebu]

If I am going to continue being cynical, I would say that he is asking for this as a smokescreen to throw us off. If he is mafia, it doesn't make any different who the bodyguard is, because at this point there is (realistically, but theoretically) nobody left to kill him at night. The only reason he would care about the bodyguard is if A) he is town and worried about survival/vetting a potentially bogus roleclaim, or B) more mafia misdirection to distract us. It is more than likely, highly highly probably that Voth is town, but I've been cynical and paranoid forever here, it's just in my nature. And if it is still a statistical possibility, I'm going to treat it as such. But this is probably nothing, and now I'm the one distracting people, so I'm going to stop beating a dead horse and wait for the rest of these lists. I've already made the direction that I plan on going clear, until we're given a better option.

ha, we basically said the same thing at the same time. except i guess im a little more trusting

[Soilderz]

Just wanna re-post this since I think it got buried. Anyone have an issue with my abstaining from a list for the above reasons?

Let's be honest. I've told you guys that I have a 99% mafia in my pocket for today, and if they flip town, obviously that is when there is time to worry (for me too, because I've trusted the wrong people).

This seems more than fair

[the_paul]

To be honest, for today only one opinion matters and we all know it. We're going to vote based on voth's word from his source. I have no issue with it, lets the other 5 of us get these lists done and move on

[Voth]

actually, scratch that. whats it matter if voth is mafia and finds the actual bodyguard or not? we're likely down to only the mafia as the remaining killing role and voth as mafia wouldnt care about bodyguard in that case.

the only reason voth can possible care about finding the bodyguard is to refute someone who has already claimed it, so he's scumhunting

that should, in my opinion, confirm voth as town

Very true. I win either way from this. Only a few possibilities exist:

1. No one else contacts me to say that they are actually the bodyguard. In this situation, I can effectively confirm the person who roleclaimed to me as town and the elected role bodyguard. Any town bodyguard who does not claim to me at this point is a complete moron and horrible at mafia - and looking at the people left in the game, no one is a moron or horrible at mafia. In this situation, I confirm this person as town.

2. Someone contacts me and says that in fact, they are the Bodyguard, not whoever has previously roleclaimed it to me. In this situation, one of the two of these people who has claimed bodyguard to me is scum. No townie who is not bodyguard would fake roleclaim Bodyguard to me. We take our best guess between them and hope we get lucky, or just lynch the other one the next day. Since last night phase played out as it did, we can mess up one lynch and be OK.

Since I already have a 99% confirmed scum in my pocket for today, I am boiling this down to a 50/50 either way:

- We lynch a scum today. (4 town, 1 mafia remain)
- Night 4, mafia kills a townie. (hopefully not my cop)
- Day 4, we lynch our best guess between two remaining possibilities in my eyes (because myself, the cop, and the bodyguard are all confirmed) OR better yet, the cop is still alive and got a result that will show us who is the last scum).

Not to mention, I have incarcerative abilities, and I have a neat thought about how best to use them.

[WillBy]

Voth, regarding not posting a list, I'm failing to see the harm in it. There are 6 players left, only 3 who make sense for mafia to target. If we are to believe you, and you dont have mafia inside your circle, that means mafia has 66% chance of hitting power roles tonight.

[Voth]

BTW: when I say we can mess up one lynch and be OK, that's only if my incarceration power is deployed properly.

[Voth]

Voth, regarding not posting a list, I'm failing to see the harm in it. There are 6 players left, only 3 who make sense for mafia to target. If we are to believe you, and you dont have mafia inside your circle, that means mafia has 66% chance of hitting power roles tonight.

Right, but I don't care about the Bodyguard. Just would rather not lose the cop.

[Voth]

And I would rather not make the percentage higher that they will find the cop by reading between the lines. If we can keep the cop alive for one more night, we win.

[WillBy]

Idk personally I think having votes is more important than having investigations. What if the mafia has a cop? Even if it's not the same as your cop, they probably have this narrowed down already

[Soilderz]

There makes no sense for voth to make a list at this point. LIke he has said, the only real possibilty for town to lose is if mafia smites the cop next night. Don't need to take that small risk.

All we have to do is lynch the guy with a guilty result on him.