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Originally posted by Exalt
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So I did some thinking about how to best play this out. I originally figured scum wouldn't automatically jump at those roles knowing the spotlight and likely investigation it will cause, but it's actually a bigger win for them if they get it due to investigation-immunity. That is, it is if that player is sufficiently skilled at mafia. It likely isn't if that player is inexperienced. Due to the investigation-immunity I overlooked before, Marshall is now the best possible role for any scum (or SK) to remain ambiguous, because they don't actually have to take the heat in lynching anyone, they are bulletproof due to the Bodyguard, and they can hide away their scum buddies from ever having to participate with the jailkeeper ability. Scum incarcerating scum means that player won't have to talk (and potentially make mistakes) all day and cannot be targeted by anyone at night, so nobody can claim guilty on them. That means Marshall can cause both themselves and a scum buddy to be immune from everything. It's the perfect way for scum to hide away a weak-link and/or lurker-type teammate from having to do anything at all. I imagine that if Rodney or Paul could have done that last game for BIET, they would have. Marshall is the perfect role for scum in every scenario I can think of, with the only drawback being investigative-immunity as a Godfather, since they'd likely want to be investigated instead.
In contrast, Mayor is good for scum in that it allows them another vote and the one insta-lynch (along with being bullet/investigation proof), but they still have to take the heat for who they lynch Day 1 and where they vote afterword. It's more powerful in the right hands I suppose, especially in the very late game, but it has major drawbacks for scum as well. It's almost suicidal for them I think, because how many days in a row will town allow a scum Mayor to fuck them over with mislynches before giving him the noose?
Okay, so I can potentially see two ways scum go about this: either scum go hard for both roles (and ultimately hoping for Marshall long-term) for the obvious benefits that will bring, and they blindly hope it doesn't get them lynched due to the inevitable heat that will come, or scum stay far away and hope for a few mistakes to happen that gets the mayor/marshall lynched, since they cannot be cleared by town PRs. If scum have any investigation-proof roles like Godfather, then it's likely better for them to stay away from either position, since they'd probably prefer to be investigated and 'cleared' while their buddies try getting elected, assuming they are experienced players. Inexperienced scum would likely not go for either role, leaving only the best scum players that aren't investigation-immune (Godfather, Ninja, Lawyer, Tailor, Banker, etc) going for it, and probably for Marshall rather than Mayor. Everyone else is probably town or third party. I will say that if there is an SK or other third-party role, they will go for broke to get one of these roles, because it's likely their best game-winning strategy. Again, Marshall would be the best role for them too.
So the way I see it, we can look at this from multiple angles. One is the obvious, which is that these roles are powerful enough for scum to want them, because the right town players getting them really makes scum's life miserable. That said, inexperienced scum would probably not go for it, because the spotlight will be on them regardless of the investigation-immunity, and they probably wouldn't be the ones a Vigilante or SK would go after for the bulletproof modifier to matter at all. This leaves the roles really worth it for only the best scum players (if the scum team contains them at least), any third-party role (either role is a dream come true for an SK), or townies that care more about being NK'd than being lynched, since being lynched is likely inevitable barring great results. Other than that, scum might go for them to play keepaway, but Mayor has way too many drawbacks for it to be worth it imo, and Marshall can just be considered an auto-lynch if the game gets near the endgame to remove any sort of vote manipulation.
Any thoughts?
From what I conclude, the people most willing to be elected need to be suspected as scum, me included for parity's sake. That said, it's likely only one among us are scum, unless Field put together an unlikely all-star scum cast (making two of them go for it), leaving everyone not going for it as possibilities in the 'inexperienced' scum pool. Right now, that pool should statistically contain more scum than the pool of players seeking election. If we assume balanced teams in terms of skill, then scum likely have one really experienced player who will go for broke to get Marshall, with the rest of the players as town or third party. I do all this with the assumption that inexperienced scum will stay on the sidelines, experienced scum will only go for the roles if they aren't the Godfather, and scum will try their best to actually stay away from the Mayor role unless they have balls of steel and/or are kind of dumb. I guess the last part depends on whether you view it a positive for scum to get one free insta-kill on town and possibly another mislynch or two before they find a noose around their own neck. I assume most experienced scum want to stay alive the entire game rather than possibly trade 1 for 1 and leave their team in shambles, but that's just me.
This means that the best lynch for Day 1 and maybe even in future days is someone not going for the election. If a scum player does win the election, it's bad, but only one of them will likely get a spot. If they get Mayor, they're eventually SOL due to their town mislynches, because they can't hide in the shadows. If they get Marshall, town can just set a rule to lynch the Marshall before LYLO (lynch scum or lose) to prevent any shenanigans taking away town votes. It doesn't even matter if they are scum or not at that point, because a bad Marshall removing a townie from voting/talking during the endgame is a liability that town mathematically can't afford, if it comes to that stage. It's a pretty easy solution I think. Going for either role is essentially suicide from how I see this playing out, leaving most of the scum team on the sidelines for their own good.
Oh, and all of this is assuming everything remains as it is on Day 2. Field did write [DAY 1 MECHANIC]rather than just [GAME MECHANIC], so it's possible there's a new mayor/marshall or something else entirely each day phase. If that's the case, then I have no idea what to do.
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