MAFIA: Fallen Angels

[RoDNeY]

Trying not to let flavor dictate my vote here, but that seems pretty clear..

Can we afford a mislynch?

PLAYERS:

1. Rodney
2. Willby - Azrael, the Angel of Death - killed Night 2, Serial Killer (+2-shot bulletproof)
3. Field - Metatron, the Scribe of God - killed Night 1, Vanilla Townie
4. the_paul
5. Exalt
6. Halp
7. Backwards - Uriel, Angel of Intellectual Information - lynched Day 1, Vanilla Townie
8. fis
9. Kthx - Chamuel, the Angel of Pure Love - lynched Day 2, Town Commuter (2-shot)
10. Zeebu
11. ixt - Samael, the Venom of God - killed Night 1, Mafia Roleblocker (2-shot)
12. Jerome

CURRENT PHASE: Day 3

PHASE CHANGES:
Day 1
Night 1
Day 2
Night 2

Im inclined to think that with this amount of players and having an SK that just like the previous games of similar setup that we most likely had 3 Scum 1 SK 8 Town, since we got rid of ixt right away and the SK is out of the picture i would be willing to assume we are looking at a 5v2. Unless Voth tried to be a crazy bastard like Willby and add a Cult or a double SK i just dont really see a balance having more scum players since it would have been 5 anti town vs 7 town at the start of the game.

I suppose there could always be another third party like a Survivor though.

I don't think we need to waste our time talking about the possible setup though to be honest, we all saw last game how it extended 2 phases past what we all believed and theres no reason why this game couldnt have just as many unpredictable twists as well and this could lead us down the rabbit hole of using this entire phase talking about the what ifs instead of scum hunting. We should be focusing on lynching scum. You shouldnt want to lynch a townie at all no matter how many players are left. Scum would probably love to waste this day talking about numbers instead of actually contributing

[Zeebu]

If I don?t flip publicly then don?t, I don?t think it says enough

[Zeebu]

Actually, voth, feel free to just modkill me if you like

long as I flip publicly that?s fine

[the_paul]

Okay, but then if zeebu threw out a random name, and that name is a PR with a successful result, then it's an auto lynch for him due to the obvious lie.

True, but wouldn't you take that gamble, especially considering the momentum on the Zeebu wagon? If you say and do nothing, there's a good chance he gets lynched. If you lie about who you targeted, worst case scenario is you still die but you sow some chaos among the few townies left. Best case scenario is you lie and a different town PR comes forward saying they are the town doctor or whatever and they got a successful result. You die anyway, but now your scum buddies have a high value target to go for. Like I said, I know Zeebu has actual important shit going on, it just seems like a big missed opportunity if he was really scum, but I'm probably overthinking this part of it.

[Exalt]

The only thing that rubs me wrong is that Zeebu could have easily lied about roleblocking someone, and we probably wouldn't have ever known. If he was scum, he could have thrown a random name out to fuck with us, since we would all overthink it probably and end up deciding that the name is: verified town, or absolutely scum. Coming down to the wire, we could waste an entire day phase arguing about whoever he named, and that could be enough to swing a mafia win.

Now Zeebu is obviously more focused on RL stuff that is 1000000x more important than this game, so I'm sure he had a completely different though process. It's going to be bug me though because if I was scum and in his shoes, it is exactly what I would have done as a last ditch effort.

Okay, but then if zeebu threw out a random name, and that name is a PR with a successful result, then it's an auto lynch for him due to the obvious lie.

[the_paul]

The only thing that rubs me wrong is that Zeebu could have easily lied about roleblocking someone, and we probably wouldn't have ever known. If he was scum, he could have thrown a random name out to fuck with us, since we would all overthink it probably and end up deciding that the name is: verified town, or absolutely scum. Coming down to the wire, we could waste an entire day phase arguing about whoever he named, and that could be enough to swing a mafia win.

Now Zeebu is obviously more focused on RL stuff that is 1000000x more important than this game, so I'm sure he had a completely different though process. It's going to be bug me though because if I was scum and in his shoes, it is exactly what I would have done as a last ditch effort.

[the_paul]

Wild theory of my own:

Zeebu really did kill Field N1, but not because he's a JOAT, but because he's the Godfather. He got sent N1 on purpose for this specific reason. Calling out his kill means a Tracker or Watcher can't call him out for it, while a Cop investigating him only helps him due to the false innocent result theys get. It's a win-win situation, because it draws attention of a possible Cop onto the Godfather and away from his teammates. Zeebu also said he has a 2-shot RB, because his teammate ixt was a 2-shot RB. Maybe the plan was for ixt to RB town, and then zeebu would claim he did it instead. It would make his JOAT claim look more legit.

The screwup was that Zeebu and his team didnt expect ixt to die N1. Zeebu didnt change the planned story, so it left inconsistencies, such as the 2-shot RB. Since he no longer has a 2-shot RB on his scum team, he instead has to claim he didnt use it at all, even though he asked Paul who to use it on in the thread.

Now this is a theory I could buy. It holds water and it also adds more to the potential lynch than just going on flavor text alone. Unless something more concrete comes to light, I can't imagine that a better lynch will present itself. Looking forward to hearing from some of the others, especially Jerome. Even if we nail this one, we still have at least 1 more scum to flush out.

[Exalt]

Wild theory of my own:

Zeebu really did kill Field N1, but not because he's a JOAT, but because he's the Godfather. He got sent N1 on purpose for this specific reason. Calling out his kill means a Tracker or Watcher can't call him out for it, while a Cop investigating him only helps him due to the false innocent result theys get. It's a win-win situation, because it draws attention of a possible Cop onto the Godfather and away from his teammates. Zeebu also said he has a 2-shot RB, because his teammate ixt was a 2-shot RB. Maybe the plan was for ixt to RB town, and then zeebu would claim he did it instead. It would make his JOAT claim look more legit.

The screwup was that Zeebu and his team didnt expect ixt to die N1. Zeebu didnt change the planned story, so it left inconsistencies, such as the 2-shot RB. Since he no longer has a 2-shot RB on his scum team, he instead has to claim he didnt use it at all, even though he asked Paul who to use it on in the thread.

[Exalt]

I'm not Looking at narrative now.
But if Zeebu really did NOT kill field, then why at all would he claim he did?
To me, this only makes sense when Zeebu (no matter if SK, vigi, or mafia) did indeed kill field. Otherwise I see no point in the claim - no matter if true or fake claim.

Ok, let's break this down then, ignoring all narrative that points to specific conclusions.

Night 1: Let's say Zeebu killed Field.

Ok, then ixt died to either WillBy, a PGO, or a busdriver.

If WillBy killed ixt, then who did scum try to kill? WillBy? Ok, then take 1 BP shot away from WillBy. He's got 1 left.

Night 2: Zeebu says he did nothing. No RB or anything else, because he forgot, even though he literally asked Paul in the thread who he should RB.

WillBy killed... nobody?

Scum killed... WillBy? How? He should have 1 BP left.

Explain to me how this adds up?

[fiS]

Wild Theory:

field was really killed by WillBy.
ixt died because he targetted a PGO or a busdriver made mafia kill themselves.

Why did Zeebu (who is scum in this theory) now claim that he killed field?
Just for the only purpose to cause confusion among townies, because obviously in that case mafia knew the kill on field was either a SK or a Vigi.
AND
they would possibly gain information on who the remaining killing role is, by bringing false facts into the game, maybe expecting the vigi (or whatever) to counterclaim on the death.

Either way, I'd call it quite risky play, but if it works. . .

[the_paul]

I'm not Looking at narrative now.
But if Zeebu really did NOT kill field, then why at all would he claim he did?
To me, this only makes sense when Zeebu (no matter if SK, vigi, or mafia) did indeed kill field. Otherwise I see no point in the claim - no matter if true or fake claim.

I'm not going to lie, I don't feel great about using the narrative as the main reason to push for a lynch on someone. I understand and agree with the logic 100%, but that doesn't mean I feel great about it. Zeebu's claim was strange from the start, and I'm with you in that I don't know why he'd like about his claim without having any heat on him. I think it was Rodney who suggested that the mafia was fishing for a vigi counter claim, but even with that as the goal it seems like a really strange thing to do.

I don't have much to offer other than I get the logic behind reading the write up and suspecting Zeebu, but it doesn't feel like great intel to bank on with the game being pretty close to going either way.

[Exalt]

Also, I agree with the_paul here. Scum almost certainly only had 3 players with an SK in the game. That means 2 left. I don't see how there's more for balance reasons, but if that's the case, then with 7 total alive and 3 scum left, we lose with a mislynch here and a successful NK. If there are only 3 scum (so 2 left), we have at least 2 mislynches left.

So yeah, if there are no more 3rd party roles left, then town are facing either 4 town vs 3 scum or 5 town vs 2 scum. We need to lynch today regardless.

[fiS]

I'm not Looking at narrative now.
But if Zeebu really did NOT kill field, then why at all would he claim he did?
To me, this only makes sense when Zeebu (no matter if SK, vigi, or mafia) did indeed kill field. Otherwise I see no point in the claim - no matter if true or fake claim.

[the_paul]

Since when do I call anyone scum for paying attention to the setup to find the best way to win/not to lose? I do that every game. At least be consistent when you do the 'in b4 exalt calls me scum for X' thing.

Wasn't it you that called people scum last game or 2 games ago for continually going back to how many scum members there were? I could have sworn it was. You're usually calling me scum anyway so it seemed like a safe bet regardless

[Exalt]

With a serial killer confirmed in the game, I wouldn't be surprised if there were only 3 mafia. With 1 down, this leaves 2 mafia left for sure, maybe 3.With 7 people left, if there are 2 scum we are in the driver's seat for sure. If there are 3, we are absolutely cutting it close.

In before Exalt calls me scum for thinking about the game setup.

Since when do I call anyone scum for paying attention to the setup to find the best way to win/not to lose? I do that every game. At least be consistent when you do the 'in b4 exalt calls me scum for X' thing.