jerome scuggs' weekly "shit hits the fan" politics thread

[Jerome Scuggs]

The problem with your way of saying things is that you tend to make not just one, but a few amazing leaps and then you point to the most cursory evidence available, and tell everyone that if we used your system 'everything would work out'.

Your leaps:
1) Sagging economy in some parts of the world --> world is falling apart
2) Sagging economy in some parts of the world --> 'socialized' systems have directly led to this sagging economy
3) Because of 1 and 2, the only way that the world will not fall apart is to remove all government and let everyone do whatever they want to do, capitalism will take care of the rest.

The economy is only one of many things I take into account. Look at our failing education, our failing war on drugs, our overcrowded prisons, our runaway debt, our oil crisis, our poverty, our homelessness, our foreign entanglements and everything it's caused: militarization, paranoia, the potential for police states worldwide, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and then everything that's stemmed from that globally: poverty, destruction, starvation, genocide, etc... and then you can throw in the economy: our social security problem, our healthcare problems, our financial market problems, etc.

I spent my adolescence growing up in a perpetual state of war, told that the terrorists will strike anywhere at any time because they hate the fact that I'm free, and it's only led to more and more political lunacy.

So uh... yeah, I must be crazy to suggest that the world isn't the peachy, happy place where everything is 'fine'.

First of all, I fail to see how #1 is true. Yes there may be a recession in some parts of the world (yes Communist China is growing at another 9% this year), or almost recessions. But honestly, the world is NOT falling apart around us. When you start using such hyperbole, it detracts from anything you have to say, because we cannot take you seriously.

Secondly, I don't see why the economy not doing so well has anything to do with 'socialized' systems. You have not explained how the US (and western world) housing bubble, and the banking mess we are in, which was mostly centred around unregulated hedge fund activities and other exotic investment schemes are the direct result of any sort of social system whatsoever. You have also failed to tell us how rising oil prices of which there is a good free market for world prices is also directly stemming from a failure of western government's social systems. All in all, it's an incredulous leap to just say that as the cause of all our problems without ANYTHING to back it up.

Thirdly, because you have not shown how #1 and #2 work, you actually have in fact not shown #3 at all. We cannot possibly trust you that your untested system (no country in the world runs on pure capitalism, even Hong Kong has public schools, public roads, and public sewer systems) can actually make things better than they are. In fact, by blatantly using hyperbole and false conclusions to reach #1 and #2, you make your claim that your system will fix everything even more incredulous and unacceptable.

Pointing out articles here and there about how universal health care doesn't work isn't going to convince anyone, because people living under the universal health care system for the most part have little to complain about. We are not all so naive to say that our system is perfect, but we are also not so naive to think that your system would be significantly better and worth it to use, when every country that has a real private system generally has worse health outcomes (of which you conveniently wave off as they would obviously be better if they went ALL the way into your system).

1- Try to consider all the variables. Yeah, China's not slipped into the recession yet - because one, they're well capitalized (the same reason sweden and switzerland tend to ride out any sort of economic problems), two, they keep demand artificially high with government subsidies. three, china is historically a "lesser value" good exporter - you generally find chinese imports as cheaper, lower-quality items... which, in recessions, people tend to prefer due to financial constraints, meaning china's definitely not seen the slowdown in demand that is typical with more elastic, higher-priced goods. And of course, they have been selling weapons that are fueling the Darfur genocide.

I'm not saying those are the only reasons, but it's a start.

2- http://forums.trenchwars.org/showpos...71&postcount=1

3- it's a problem, but really it's because I can't simplify the complexities of the variables that I have to deal with. The thing is, you're looking for a massive collapse, but it's not going to be like that - a bit here, a bit there, much like our civil liberties. But the system is starting to show its cracks, models are being abandoned, and people are demanding a rethink. If by this point you are not convinced that government regulation is a massively significant reason behind the high medical prices in the US, then you haven't been reading anything I've written, or any reports I've linked (at least 2 in this thread alone).

[Summa]

LOL CALIFORNIA IS THE LIFE BLOOD OF OUR ECONOMY? I think that would be... OIL dipshit. Perhaps you have noticed the economy is starting to collapse mainly because we have exhausted our current supply of oil and have to buy more from the middle east? Here is the easy way to fix the economy and I know this because I live in Houston, one of the few cities in America to survive the economic downfall due to our drilling operations and our port. Drill in Anwar, Drill in the OCS, approve drilling for the shale oil, build more nuclear plants, build more clean coal plants, this will produce HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF JOBS in America. All Obama and his dumbass supporters can say is "green energy is the future and the oil we have will take 10 years to get" but what you don't hear is that green energy like.. windmills and solar panels are NOT efficient means of supplying america with energy and on top of that, will take over 30 years to harness into mass productions. Stop listening to the main stream media and start using your brain, dumbass. Oh and BTW, even though california is "green" they still use more oil by themselves than any other COUNTRY in the world besides the US themselves. GG liberal rookie.


Edit: Im sorry I misread that, still you are supporting illegal aliens, who want to get free healthcare off our tax dollars, you are even more of a dipshit than i first thought.

illegals = lifeblood of california economy, not california is the lifeblood of our economy, the rest of you post addressed nothing in regards to what I said, I don't agree with global warming/green energy, dont put words in my mouth

EDIT: oh yeah and I'm from seattle, so your 2nd post has nothing to do with me, kthx ez sit gg

[kthx]

On top of this, Democrats are hell bent on turning America in a third world country, do you realize what the number one selling vehicle in China is? ITS AN SUV, while you liberalist douchebags try to get everyone to ride bicycles and walk. Obama doesn't give a fuck about anyone, everything democrats do ends up failing, they are a failure, and want to turn America into a failure. It's people being pussies like you that ruin this country. You are the people that made dodgeball illegal to play in schools, in YOUR school systems you can't say mom and dad because you might upset the homosexuals, in YOUR school systems you can't beat up a kid of another race because even though its just childish bs because some terrorist orginization like CAIR wants to turn it into a fucking hate crime, California is the worst fucking state, get your own fucking oil, you neo-hippy losers, turn your own fucking state into a third world country.. if it isn't already.

Edit: The reason that America isn't going to be the most powerful country in the next five years is because you guys are a generation of pussies, our forefathers understood what it took to make America powerful and sacrificed to do so, and now it is all being undone in the name of PC guilt. Do you seriously think countries like Russia, China, or India give a fuck about the environment. These will be the three powers in the world after Obama is through ruining America. I hope your happy.

[kthx]

LOL CALIFORNIA IS THE LIFE BLOOD OF OUR ECONOMY? I think that would be... OIL dipshit. Perhaps you have noticed the economy is starting to collapse mainly because we have exhausted our current supply of oil and have to buy more from the middle east? Here is the easy way to fix the economy and I know this because I live in Houston, one of the few cities in America to survive the economic downfall due to our drilling operations and our port. Drill in Anwar, Drill in the OCS, approve drilling for the shale oil, build more nuclear plants, build more clean coal plants, this will produce HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF JOBS in America. All Obama and his dumbass supporters can say is "green energy is the future and the oil we have will take 10 years to get" but what you don't hear is that green energy like.. windmills and solar panels are NOT efficient means of supplying america with energy and on top of that, will take over 30 years to harness into mass productions. Stop listening to the main stream media and start using your brain, dumbass. Oh and BTW, even though california is "green" they still use more oil by themselves than any other COUNTRY in the world besides the US themselves. GG liberal rookie.


Edit: Im sorry I misread that, still you are supporting illegal aliens, who want to get free healthcare off our tax dollars, you are even more of a dipshit than i first thought.

[Summa]

Instead of staying to the right, lets delve into the left shall we?

RAISE TAXES, TAX THE OIL COMPANIES, STOP THE SPECULATORS, TAKE MONEY FROM ANYONE WHO MAKES A DECENT LIVING AND GIVE IT TO POOR PEOPLE WHO DON'T FEEL LIKE WORKING. LETS SPEND TONS OF MONEY ON BUILDING A HUGE GOVERNMENT THAT IS ALL ABOUT GOING GREEN TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING.. BECAUSE OUR POLAR ICE CAPS ARE GETTING BIGGER, AND TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING. LETS GIVE EVERYONE EVEN ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS HEALTHCARE PAID FOR THE AMERICAN POPULACE, EVERYTHING WILL BE GREAT, I AM HOPE AND CHANGE!!!!

as opposed to keeping our dick in iraq and "establishing a permanent base of operations in the middle east for the next 50 to 100 years" (John McCain), cut taxes and increase spending (seems to be the republican philosophy as of late), reducing government in people's lives because everything is fine right now, kicking millions of people who are the lifeblood of a California economy out of our country.....BUT IN A HUMANITARIAN WAY, and overall doing nothing because hey everything is fine as it is right? read my sig, i live by that jfk quote and the republicans don't

[kthx]

Instead of staying to the right, lets delve into the left shall we?

RAISE TAXES, TAX THE OIL COMPANIES, STOP THE SPECULATORS, TAKE MONEY FROM ANYONE WHO MAKES A DECENT LIVING AND GIVE IT TO POOR PEOPLE WHO DON'T FEEL LIKE WORKING. LETS SPEND TONS OF MONEY ON BUILDING A HUGE GOVERNMENT THAT IS ALL ABOUT GOING GREEN TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING.. BECAUSE OUR POLAR ICE CAPS ARE GETTING BIGGER, AND TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING. LETS GIVE EVERYONE EVEN ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS HEALTHCARE PAID FOR THE AMERICAN POPULACE, EVERYTHING WILL BE GREAT, I AM HOPE AND CHANGE!!!!

[Kolar]

You really think that my sole purpose of posting my (mostly) conservative points of view are to piss everyone here off? I could perhaps understand that if I was maybe flip flopping like Obama. Maybe even if I just went against the grain in every thread as opposed to most. Ive said it before the simple fact is that you're all liberals (or maybe not so far as liberal but still pretty left) and I'm not.

You guys try to stir up shit regardless of the topic. But if you want to equate an extreme conservative view point as merely a means to "piss everyone off" then I'm not going to stop you.

[Izor]

You really think that my sole purpose of posting my (mostly) conservative points of view are to piss everyone here off? I could perhaps understand that if I was maybe flip flopping like Obama. Maybe even if I just went against the grain in every thread as opposed to most. Ive said it before the simple fact is that you're all liberals (or maybe not so far as liberal but still pretty left) and I'm not.

[404 Not Found]

There will always be someone, some company or govt. gaining from anothers loss.

Two sides of the coin. Epinephrine also makes valid points on the economic structures in different parts of the world. Ireland makes up about 1.3 or 1.6% of the economic stimulus in the EU, so as it's economic woes relate to a lose of productivity and emigration from Ireland, some other country and government will possibly expand economically through a new stimulus so to say from anothers loss for example, small as it may be for Ireland, that the financial services group Hibernian announced plans to move more than 500 jobs to Bangalore in India in the next three years.

"One man gathers what another man spills" Stupid Grateful Dead lyric, but I always think of it in such discussions.

[Epinephrine]

I really apologize, I suppose that I have difficulty with what you're asking because I don't look at one chart or source and derive everything I say from it. Perhaps you do, which might explain alot, but at the rate at which I read and absorb information, in order to show you how I've arrived at a conclusion, I'd have to show you, in the past month alone, hundreds of websites, news articles, reports, papers, books, et cetera. When I arrived at the conclusion Europe was going into a depression, it's not because I read that article - you can ask any of the few people who I still talk to on subspace chats, I've been saying Europe is gonna follow the US down the recession - hell, I remember when people thought I was crazy for saying there would be a recession at all in January. When I come here to set out an argument and test it, I don't feel like preparing a research paper explaining how I arrived at my assumptions, I just google "europe recession" and throw the most relevant news articles down that explains what I've spent far more time studying.

In all reality it's a problem I get into alot as far as arguing, so I've started carrying a notebook around where I log everything I read, which is nice because I learn faster (i basically paraphrased an entire Hayek book in outline format) and can then reconstruct an entire chain of thought, with cites, upon request.

All-in-all though, the entire problem mirrors the economic calculation problem that plagues centralized government. Awesome.

The problem with your way of saying things is that you tend to make not just one, but a few amazing leaps and then you point to the most cursory evidence available, and tell everyone that if we used your system 'everything would work out'.

Your leaps:
1) Sagging economy in some parts of the world --> world is falling apart
2) Sagging economy in some parts of the world --> 'socialized' systems have directly led to this sagging economy
3) Because of 1 and 2, the only way that the world will not fall apart is to remove all government and let everyone do whatever they want to do, capitalism will take care of the rest.


First of all, I fail to see how #1 is true. Yes there may be a recession in some parts of the world (yes Communist China is growing at another 9% this year), or almost recessions. But honestly, the world is NOT falling apart around us. When you start using such hyperbole, it detracts from anything you have to say, because we cannot take you seriously.

Secondly, I don't see why the economy not doing so well has anything to do with 'socialized' systems. You have not explained how the US (and western world) housing bubble, and the banking mess we are in, which was mostly centred around unregulated hedge fund activities and other exotic investment schemes are the direct result of any sort of social system whatsoever. You have also failed to tell us how rising oil prices of which there is a good free market for world prices is also directly stemming from a failure of western government's social systems. All in all, it's an incredulous leap to just say that as the cause of all our problems without ANYTHING to back it up.

Thirdly, because you have not shown how #1 and #2 work, you actually have in fact not shown #3 at all. We cannot possibly trust you that your untested system (no country in the world runs on pure capitalism, even Hong Kong has public schools, public roads, and public sewer systems) can actually make things better than they are. In fact, by blatantly using hyperbole and false conclusions to reach #1 and #2, you make your claim that your system will fix everything even more incredulous and unacceptable.

Pointing out articles here and there about how universal health care doesn't work isn't going to convince anyone, because people living under the universal health care system for the most part have little to complain about. We are not all so naive to say that our system is perfect, but we are also not so naive to think that your system would be significantly better and worth it to use, when every country that has a real private system generally has worse health outcomes (of which you conveniently wave off as they would obviously be better if they went ALL the way into your system).

[404 Not Found]

I've been saying Europe is gonna follow the US down the recession - hell, I remember when people thought I was crazy for saying there would be a recession at all in January. When I come here to set out an argument and test it, I don't feel like preparing a research paper explaining how I arrived at my assumptions, I just google "europe recession" and throw the most relevant news articles down that explains what I've spent far more time studying.

Ireland had come out in the news noting they are in recession this year for the first time since 1983, and a return to net emigration next year, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) forecasts in its latest Quarterly Economic Commentary.

It anticipates that the economy will contract in size by 0.4 per cent this year after growing by 4.5 per cent in 2007.

This recession reflects a steep decline in domestic demand, according to the ESRI, which calculates that the volume of domestic spending this year will fall by 2.6 per cent. Investment spending is forecast to fall by 14.9 per cent while real consumer spending growth in 2008 has been revised downwards by the ESRI to just 1 per cent from 3 per cent just three months ago.

Shares in Irish companies fell heavily as news of the report leaked into the market. Bank shares were particularly badly hit, with Bank of Ireland down 5 per cent.

The ESRI expects economic growth to resume next year, with a forecast expansion rate of 1.9 per cent.

However, this will be insufficient to stem a recurrence of net emigration in 2009. The ESRI projects that the outflow of people from the country will reach 20,000 next year, a level of net emigration not seen since 1990.

The reappearance of net emigration signals a steep deterioration in domestic labor market conditions. The ESRI projects that the level of unemployment will increase by 60,000 or 60 per cent between 2007 and 2009.

The unemployment rate - the number out of work as a percentage of the labour force - is expected to climb from 4.5 per cent in 2007 to 6 per cent this year before increasing again to 7.1 per cent in 2009. The numbers at work in the economy next year are forecast to be smaller than in 2007.

Yesterday, the financial services group Hibernian announced plans to move more than 500 jobs to Bangalore in India in the next three years.

Your not crazy Jerome, as it will have an effect on the world and not just North America and Ireland.

[Kolar]

I don't study this stuff but if you do then you must have multiple references, information and knowledge concerning economic indicators, not one bogus html page to prove your point, however easy it is to do so. I know the world including Europe is not going to fair any better then the US because the wide spread investment in mortgage-backed securities on the international market. Statistics are not secondary, I asked you to show that there is a recession occurring in Europe not because I disagree with you but because it was an example of where you could show some knowledge and work. You often speak on issues with little to no backing, not even a news article. I seriously would like to see that you're more then an arm chair warrior.

Izor is a little more tolerable these days I will agree 404. Still he's QS and they're only on the forum and game to cause trouble and drama. That's their only goal and you have to keep it in mind when attempting to talk to one of them especially Wark/Kthx and Izor.

[404 Not Found]

That's a interesting story. Meth is an extremely hard drug to give up. I think 90%+ people relapse after treatment.

I had played with Meth decades ago...hard to stop using if everyone you know has it...same can be said of coke too. During the 80's you couldn't go to a party w/o someone putting lines out...hell they use to do lines on the back of the classrooms in H.S. during class.

I never shot anything in my arm, so I can't even judge how hard that may be to get off of.

1st rule of TW Forums: If you find yourself agreeing with Izor you know you're wrong.

Izor is ok...there is a middle ground on many issues I see that he comments on and frankly it's not all that bad to hear another side or opinion. We have disagreed and sometimes we both have agreed on issues. Recently the gun control issue Izor made a comment on my opinion of which he was somwhat amazed on my point of view.

[Jerome Scuggs]

I wasn't asking for a history lesson or to know how "your" academic field organizes itself, I asked you to provide a reference to what you are talking about. How do you know the European economies are not functioning well? I assumed and was hoping for something like Stats Can, something official and exactly opposite of what you provided: a faceless, nameless static html web page. I mean what the bloody fuck do you kids reference in class?

I really apologize, I suppose that I have difficulty with what you're asking because I don't look at one chart or source and derive everything I say from it. Perhaps you do, which might explain alot, but at the rate at which I read and absorb information, in order to show you how I've arrived at a conclusion, I'd have to show you, in the past month alone, hundreds of websites, news articles, reports, papers, books, et cetera. When I arrived at the conclusion Europe was going into a depression, it's not because I read that article - you can ask any of the few people who I still talk to on subspace chats, I've been saying Europe is gonna follow the US down the recession - hell, I remember when people thought I was crazy for saying there would be a recession at all in January. When I come here to set out an argument and test it, I don't feel like preparing a research paper explaining how I arrived at my assumptions, I just google "europe recession" and throw the most relevant news articles down that explains what I've spent far more time studying.

In all reality it's a problem I get into alot as far as arguing, so I've started carrying a notebook around where I log everything I read, which is nice because I learn faster (i basically paraphrased an entire Hayek book in outline format) and can then reconstruct an entire chain of thought, with cites, upon request.

All-in-all though, the entire problem mirrors the economic calculation problem that plagues centralized government. Awesome.

[Kolar]

That's a interesting story. Meth is an extremely hard drug to give up. I think 90%+ people relapse after treatment. I don't have any similar personal experiences dealing with private insurance. My mother has dental coverage through her work and my brothers and I get it until 25 (provided that we stay in school to 25). If the 4.9% of unemployed people in the United States also represented anywhere near the number of those without health insurance then maybe there could be a correlation between drug use and general life problems, and lack of health insurance. I think it's a combination of factors that removes a lot of people from obtaining health insurance.

1st rule of TW Forums: If you find yourself agreeing with Izor you know you're wrong.