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  • TWDTB Week 5 and Tiebreaker Scenarios

    A shorter week makes this easier to type up, so I can push it out a bit quicker. In addition, in this thread I'll explore some of the playoff implications from last week and looking ahead.


    I'll let squirtle work on the recap, as he's done a better job than I could hope to. Additionally I'd like to give a shoutout to Mythril and everyone recording games this season. It makes the recaps easier, it builds hype, and let's us actually look at and (hopefully) correct mistakes to improve the level of competition in the zone. Check out the Match Recordings Thread for more.


    Before the predictions, I'd like to point out some of the narratives heading into the final week of the season.

    Playoff Qualifications
    The top 6 teams make the playoffs in TWDT, with the top 2 in each division getting a bye week on October 17. For the quarterfinals, the third seed chooses their opponent from seeds 4-6. 5 teams have already clinched a playoff spot:
    1. Power
    2. Piwirfil Fingirmin
    3. Terrorist
    4. Thunder
    5. Kobe.
    Even more exciting is how close these teams are when you look at per-division standings.

    TWDTD -
    1. Piwirfil Fingirmin (6 wins, H2H over Power*, Thunder*, Terrorist)
    2. Thunder (6 wins, H2H over Terrorist*, Power)
    3. Power/Terrorist (6 wins each, H2H match this weekend)
    TWDTJ -
    1. Terrorist (5 wins, H2H win over Power*, PF)
    2. Piwirfil Fingirmin (5 wins, H2H win over Power)
    3. Power (5 wins)
    4. Thunder (4 wins, H2H over Kobe*)
    5. Kobe (4 wins)
    TWDTB - Power (7 wins), (TIE) PF/Terrorist (6 wins each), Kobe (5 wins)
    1. Power (7 wins)
    2. Piwirfil Fingirmin (6 wins, H2H win over Terrorist*)
    3. Terrorist (6 wins)
    4. Kobe (5 wins)/Thunder (4 wins) (H2H match this weekend)

    While tiebreakers settle who is actually the #1 seed, it's crazy to see a team with 6/8 (so far) warbird wins being ranked 4th.

    The top teams are pretty settled in, but the competition a bit lower is the complete opposite. Funk and Morph currently stand at 9 wins apiece, Blast and Hottub Homeboys have 8 and Paddington sits at 7. Morph and Hottub Homeboys have an extra replay match, which could shake things up even further.

    Paddington's playoff chances are dead, as the current bar to reach playoffs will be 10 wins (Morph and Funk play each other twice this weekend). The closest they get:
    1. Paddington wins out, beating Blast in WB, Morph in Jav and PF in Base. (10 wins, winning H2H tie breaker over HH, Morph, losing tiebreaker to Blast, Funk)
    2. Hottub Homeboys wins their replay match against Morph, but loses all their other matches (Thunder in DTD, Terrorist in DTJ, Power in DTB), ending with 9 wins
    3. Blast loses everything this weekend, and ends up with only 8 wins.
    4. Morph loses to HH in the replay and splits their WB and Base series with Funk and loses to Paddington in Jav. (10 wins, losing tiebreaker to Paddington)
    5. Funk splits their WB and Base series with Morph, winning one match narrowly and losing the other badly and loses their jav match against Thunder (10 wins, but still has tiebreak wins over Paddington and Morph). Funk emerges #6 seed, but narrowly.
    Morph's 50-42 DTJ loss to Funk week 4 ends up being crucial for both teams, and Paddington. If Paddington can get that close after their season, clearly anything is possible heading into week 5.

    Another interesting angle for playoff qualifications is the teams that have performed in individual divisions, but slacked elsewhere. If Funk qualifies, they could move to the #5 base spot with a H2H win over Thunder. However, their other two divisions are almost surely going to be 6th. If Morph qualifies, they'll have done so with at max 3 base wins. This could still be enough to secure the #5 spot in javs, which potentially allows them to avoid final-boss Power altogether. Each team ranked 6-9 is there because the suffer in a few divisions, and with the top teams so densely packed, someone has to play Terrorist's mean basing lineup in the quarterfinals, just as someone will have to face Power Javs. Only PF escapes the quarterfinals altogether, though the advantage gained by the bye week has been questioned.



    With all that said, here's the predictions

    Week 4 Record: 7-1
    Season Record: 20-12

    Kobe vs Thunder
    Kobe 15 - 9 Thunder
    As I mentioned above, this match determines the #4 seed in basing. However, as the #4 spot doesn't really come with advantages, this could very well be a preview of quarterfinals.
    Kobe has been all-upside recently, winning 3 of their last 4. Thunder has looked lost without kess, playing understarred and losing 3 of their last 4. Lionheart has proven a tremendous FA value pickup at 8*, but Kobe's own pickup, Hawkeye, has proven to be a bit better. With 3-4 different lineups depending on who actually shows, Kobe has the depth to hang with the big boys, something Thunder is lacking at the moment. Still, this is a bit of a throwaway game as standings are more or less locked at this point.


    Power vs Hottub Homeboys
    Power 15 - 8 Hottub Homeboys
    The Homeboys are fighting for their season, and put up good numbers. However, Power can't afford an L at risk of giving away their top seed in base (I may be mistaken, but if Power loses and PF and Terrorist win, Power slides to third place). Power looked vulnerable after a bad loss to Terrorist, but in turn they throttled Thunder showing the resilience of a top team. Hottub lost to the very same Thunder team, as their shark woes seemed to worsen. Zidane and team know how to abuse a shark advantage; it will be up to Renzi's three top spiders to offset.


    Blast vs Terrorist
    Blast 13 - 15 Terrorist
    Like Hottub vs Power above, Blast is fighting for their lives, but Terrorist doesn't really care. However, this game will be closer than it looks. Even with a Terrorist L and a Kobe win, the teams sit tied at 6 wins but Terrorist has the H2H win.


    Paddington vs Piwirfil Fingirmin
    Paddington 7 - 15 Piwirfil Fingirmin
    PF still has enough juice to get the job done, but I feel like its worth mentioning how close they are to an 0-8 team. Their net time differential (time for - time against) is only 3 minutes 10 seconds. Granted, unlike all the other teams, they haven't played Paddington yet.


    Morph vs Funk
    Morph 13 - 15 Funk
    This could be match of the week, or it could be very disappointing. Morph has proven they can put up respectable scores against top teams (15-14:50 loss to PF) or they flop (15-1:22 loss to Power). They seem to pass the eye test, but I said that looking at their team before week 1 as well. Funk broke out of their funk week 4, and looks to cap the season off with a playoff qualifying win.

    REMATCH
    Hottub Homeboys vs Morph
    HH 15 - 11 Morph
    Like I said above, Morph is hard to predict. This game gets even harder, as it will be the very last of the season. While this could have qualification implications, as Morph has to 2-0 Funk to even be in contention. Hottub also faces a gauntlet trying to qualify- they need to win at least 2 against Thunders WBs (Tied #1), Terrorists Javs (tied #1) and Powers Basers (#1) AND beat Morph AND get lucky with Morph vs Funk for them to steal the #6 spot. They currently have the H2H wins over Funk, but have lost those to Morph. So in theory if Morph only beats Paladdengton this weekend, they have 10 wins, Funk goes 2-1 for 11 wins, and HH goes 2-2 for 11 wins, they've made it. Easier than Paddington I guess.
    As for actual predictions, I'm predicting both teams are already mathematically eliminated by 3:30. Still, under the spot light of everyone in the zone, I'm hoping we see some good basing.

    Thoughts? Objections? I'm a (1) title bozo? Let's hear it below. Let's talk basing!

  • #2
    Thanks for the writeup willby, great read!

    Asia Minor> see you sunday fuckers
    Asia Minor> maybe not
    Asia Minor> i hope you guys lose
    bloodzombie> I hope your mom fucks you while you sleep
    bloodzombie> every time you have a wet dream, it's really your mom fucking you
    bloodzombie> remmeber that next time
    bloodzombie> seriously

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    • #3
      Willby, this was a great read and paints the picture and builds hype for this next week. I'm excited to see how it pans out and have my popcorn ready.
      pokebong> you never had a bad round b4?

      ~

      1:Steadman> u turned that game and ur a god of subspace

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      • #4
        if all 3 top basing teams end with 7 wins it would go to time since power has the head to head over fingerman, finger over terror, terror over power so it'd be a 3 way tie in terms of h2h's so i'm fairly positive it would then be based off overall time. think has always been the rule unless it changed recently.

        edit: based off getting only 5 mins vs terror we would likely get 3rd unless it's margin of victory and not minutes gained... someone can clarify if they know

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        • #5
          HYPE! loving the writeups from everyone this season...
          zidane> big play
          Omega Red> dwop sick
          mr mime> its called an orca smash u uncultured fk
          WillBy> ^^

          1:Chief Utsav> LOL
          1:Rule> we dont do that here.

          cripple> can u get pregnant if u cum in gf's ass

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          • #6
            Originally posted by zidane View Post
            if all 3 top basing teams end with 7 wins it would go to time since power has the head to head over fingerman, finger over terror, terror over power so it'd be a 3 way tie in terms of h2h's so i'm fairly positive it would then be based off overall time. think has always been the rule unless it changed recently.

            edit: based off getting only 5 mins vs terror we would likely get 3rd unless it's margin of victory and not minutes gained... someone can clarify if they know
            While I love the narrative of 3 way tie for first, it's a big IF that you guys lose this weekend.

            My understanding of the playoff rules is the same as your edit- rankings would be:
            1. Terrorist (win over Power, 12:53 loss to PF)
            2. PF (Win over Terrorist, 10:47 loss to Power)
            3. Power (Win over PF, 5:17 loss to Terrorist)
            That being said, my prediction for base in almost any scenario is that #1, #2 enjoy their byes, #3 chooses the late qualifier #6 and we have Kobe vs Thunder as the other quarterfinal. Then #1 chooses the winner of Kobe/Thunder and #2 has to face #3. I sure as hell don't want to play Power or PF again, though all top 6 (including funk) basing squads are pretty scary.

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            • #7
              Some thorough analysis, nice!

              The standings page on the site (https://twdt.trenchwars.com/standings) has been updated to account for head-to-head tiebreakers, and added some cut-off lines for the bye weeks (top 2) and elimination (top 6). During the games on Sunday the standings will update after each game.

              Previous week standings now have a ranking difference compared to the previous week added to them.

              Disclaimer: These standings are to be used as a reference only. 3-way ties and higher will most likely be displayed in the incorrect order.

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              • #8
                I think teams are reseeded on per league basis after regular season thus the first line doesn't serve much of a purpose. Second line is sick, however.

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                • #9
                  That's correct. I might've looked only at the tiebreaker portion of the rules. I can bold/color the top 2 in each league instead, and remove the line.

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                  • #10
                    Fixed
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                    • #11
                      if fingirmin were to win all our mitchis this weekend cud we haf a bye in all leagues 4 playiffs?

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                      • #12
                        They should let Steadman write these up... maybe he can help with HoNs for playoffs since he might potentially be eliminated and has no job irl so I'm sure he has all the time! Thanks for the write up though! Great read, Willy!
                        2:Tanzu> Pawner> u gna be normal if i rejoin?
                        2:Tanzu> im dying
                        2:Best> yo accept/axe him again LOL
                        2:Tanzu> LOL gana tell him apply
                        2:Pawner> im here morons u can both suck my dick
                        2:Tripin> LOOOOOOOOOL
                        2:Best> ROFL
                        2:Tanzu> LOOOOOL

                        TWLD Season 20 Champ (MVP Both Rounds)

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                        • #13
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                          Me and tiny stepping up this weekend. Gonna flight suit up and take things real serious. Paddington 3-0, lets go champ.
                          ranked #2 in ogrons signature of: TWL's most irrelevant nobodies pubtrash bozos with 0 titles.

                          TWLD Season 19 #70th Best Warbird
                          TWLB Season 19 #56th Best Spider

                          TW Greatest no-shipper 2002 - Present

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ardour View Post
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                            Me and tiny stepping up this weekend. Gonna flight suit up and take things real serious. Paddington 3-0, lets go champ.
                            i like the part where tiny touches your butt
                            pokebong> you never had a bad round b4?

                            ~

                            1:Steadman> u turned that game and ur a god of subspace

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                            • #15
                              Thank you for the writeup WIllby. Not even lying I had no clue whether or not we still had a shot until you let me know. Good on ya.
                              Vehicle> ?help Will the division's be decided as well today?
                              Message has been sent to online moderators
                              2:BLeeN> veh yes
                              (Overstrand)>no
                              2:Vehicle> (Overstrand)>no
                              2:BLeeN> ok then no
                              :Overstrand:2:Bleen> veh yes
                              (Overstrand)>oh...then yes

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