Basers Value Change System

[Ardour]

Hello everyone! Here I am going to explain how the basers Value Changes will be calculated in future weeks. This is a huge spoiler, so If you dont want to find out the inner workings, locate the alt and F4 keys on your keyboard and press them both at the same time NOW!

Now, onto the explanation...

Here is a sample TWL match of week 2s match of Spastic vs Mainliner. I have applied the formula to the players and I will reference this picture as I explain.



In technical terms, Im using the ELO function. An example of this would be the TWD ranking system which has a maximum range of 50.

Sharks - Shark VCs use the ELO function with a maximum range of 100. As sharks have arguably no useful statistics to show how well they performed, there VC is just based on whether their team won or lost the match.

Fighters - Probability is a number from 1 to 0 on how likely something is to happen, where 1 is certain. The probability column is calculated by taking into account the players value, and the average value of the opposing team. So if you look at the player Vatican Assassin with value 788, his probability is high because apparently he should beat his opponent who are averagely rated at 512.

The RC column stands for Rating Change and calculates how much the players will go up or down based solely on whether it was a win or loss.

The bonus column calculates a value based on the players performance according to their k/d ratio. It also takes into account a k/d ratio of a mediocre TWL player which I wont state as not to spoil everything. This value can be tweaked if the VC changes seem to generous/unfair but not on an individual basis. For terrs its harder as the mediocre TWL k/d is higher because terrs usually get a higher k/d ratio than spiders.

In conclusion, the biggest factor of a basers VC is the win/loss, to encourage teaming. But a players record is taken into account.

Roughly the VC change is based upon:
80% win/loss
20% rec

[HateTheFake]

nicely done

[Capital Knockers]

I'm glad you're doing all the work for this, and I don't want to seem picky, but 80% relying on W/L 20% on rec? Sharks only increase or decrease solely based on W/L? Not enough variables imo. Can't you factor in a bonus if they had 2.8-3.0+ RPD? TeKs don't count for anything? TKs don't cause penalties? Shark kills/shark tks could be put together for something no? I mean there are some sharks out there that only get a few kills a game, if you've got someone that can get 50 kills and 5 TKs, shouldn't they get a bonus for that?

Again, not trying to be picky, I'm glad you're doing all this. Would just like to see more variables.

[RednaZ]

rpd is a retarded stat, quality over quantity please

[Ardour]

Good feedback Capital Knockers. Ive actually thought of those statistics applying to sharks before but without results. But using a variation of the fighter/terr algorithm Ive come up with this:

((kills - Team Kills) * (Reps per death - 2.6)*5) = Bonus

applied to this matches sharks:
Domi = 0
Puffin = 19.5
Vatican Assassin = 13.5
Cranium = 18

Now as Rednaz said, RPD isint a valid stat so to treat it one would be wrong when trying to give there performance a value. If it was a valid stat this formula would work. The reason for the constant 2.6 is because Im assuming a twl worthy shark that does his job as far as repeling is concerned, gets a RPD of at least 2.6. Better sharks will obviously get higher.

Thats a really quick solution and useless as RPD isint a valid statistic. Im not a shark and dont know what kind of scores good sharks get so cant really come up with a formula based solely on kills and team kills.

I need to know boundaries such as, a good shark score would be 40 kills, so maybe 10 team kills should be counted as acceptable and ignored. Or maybe take team kills into account but subtract the amount of terr kills first. How many flag touches?

[Zeebu]

good kills themselves are worth one
teamkills would be worth -2
and terr kills would be worth 5

or something like that

so, a shark shows 18 kills
4 of those are tks
2 of those are teks

so
12*1+2*5+4*(-2)=24

just as a small bonus along with your RPD formula

[PaulOakenfold]

That's really arbitrary Zeebu, especially in such a situation when you have a terr and 2 spiders cornered and you have 3 reps. Do you go for the bomb, or do you rep once or twice and let your spiders that are currently shooting mop up? You can do either, but it depends on what style you're going with. Obviously there are arguments on both sides to which is 'best,' but there isn't a right answer.

I also agree that RPD isn't worth looking at. You have situations where you can get 3-5 reps per death (when defending cram) and situations when you're going to get 0-1 reps per death (cornered, your terr is out of place, or someone ignores your rep). You'd think these would cancel each other out, but unless it's a close match, the losing side of the match is going to most likely have a lower rpd (unless they're wasting reps when attacking a cram). It can also be the opposite, where the sharks don't really have to care and are just bombing at every opportunity, getting around 2.4-2.6 rpds when your team is dominating.

Ardour is trying to make the most objective approach towards sharking, something that can't really be done with Terr or Spider stats.

[Capital Knockers]

I do agree that RPD is basically useless in telling whether or not a shark is doing well - but not entirely. I think if you've got two sharks at 2.6 and 2.4 RPD, vs a pair thats 3.0 3.1, that can tell you something. I'd say hell, maybe just give them a small point bonus of 5 or something if they get 3 RPD+? Maybe -5 type deal if they go under 2.5 RPD? I see what you're saying PaulO, and I agree that some situations - you doa, nothing you can do, and sometimes you can get 3 extra reps. However I believe often enough those situations balance themselves out. So while RPD isn't a very accurate stat, it isn't completely useless. If you see a shark with a 2.0-2.5 RPD in TWL, thats a really bad game for him regardless of how many doas imo. Same with getting 3.0 3.1 etc, at least he's getting those reps off, meaning he's doing something right.

As for how many kills are good in a shark. I'd say top offensive sharks can get anywhere from 35-60+ kills. 60+ being a really knockout once in a while thing. 30-40 or 50 being a good game. Personally I don't normally get many kills, only the ones I know wont risk my team or timing so I tend to get lower kill counts. An average kill count for a good twl shark should be 20-30 I'd say. As for TKs, I'd say if you're breaking 15-20 TKs, you should be punished :P 10 or less is pretty common. Just the enemies coming up the tube and killing your guys by repping your mines is common, and often unavoidable if your spiders push well.

As I said, good job so far with this though, feel free to pick my brain anytime.

oh flag touches, didn't see that. I'd say maybe give a bonus if someone is getting 40-50+ FT, because that would mean they're on that thing more than most other players in the game. While many people might think it's useless, someone has to do it. New/not so smart basers often pass up a simple change to FT on the way through a push, and it's really annoying because thats a couple seconds of flagtime you might miss because he didn't.

- and Paul, I think even when cornered, a good shark should be able to get off his 3 reps, as long as you aren't doaed. You can tell when to rep on attach, and use the 3 fast so you dont die after 1. Same with the team owning and the shark repping less to mine more, a good shark should still get more than 2.5 even if they're being really offensive.

kk i'll shutup now .. i hope

[Sufficient]

From what I've seen ... a way to compare how good a shark is, is more based on how he performs with his partners. The more the deaths match each other for the shark duo, generally the better the performance. Take a look at some previous TWL matches to see if that's the case.

Another way is to calculate the absence of presence of a shark in game when his terr dies.

And another is the flag touches.

[Capital Knockers]

From what I've seen ... a way to compare how good a shark is, is more based on how he performs with his partners. The more the deaths match each other for the shark duo, generally the better the performance. Take a look at some previous TWL matches to see if that's the case.

Another way is to calculate the absence of presence of a shark in game when his terr dies.

And another is the flag touches.

I don't know dude, I rarely ever have seen a TWL shark pair more than a handful of deaths off from their partner. I know personally im usually the same or +/-1, would be hard to find a way to calculate that.

[Mantra-Slider]

I didnt read all of this but it seems like you guys are saying that the more rpd the more skills you got and I totally disagree. Dont think rpd should have anything to do with a shark rating formula. rating shark is something you can only do by watching the actual game or take part in it.

ty

[PaulOakenfold]

We all just argued against RPDs Mantra.

Knockers:
When you're cornered you can't always get off 3 reps, especially if your shark just died a half second before you and the enemy's spiders are right right next to you. Their shots will go right through it and you're lucky to get off more than 1. This is especially true if you're trying to push the enemy back with your reps or displace the ships to give your team more breathing room. You're not always going to get those 3 reps off because you're trying to save your reps. Like Rednaz said, it's quality over quantity as far as reps go.

Flag touches are another non-issue because you can easily rack up a huge amount of flag touches (50+) just by sharing a flag with an enemy ship. I've had more than a few 50+ flag touch games in TWD just because of being next to another out of rep shark sitting on a flag.

If you're on an aggressive push (think 6-8 of you alive with 2-4 of them alive on the other end of the fr) there's almost never a time as a shark should touch that flag when you can spend that extra second to push them into a corner for a TD... it's the terr's job to touch the flag and drop your remaining guys forward.

[Sufficient]

You can based on flag time associated with a shark's "flag touch" instead of simply # of flag touches.

Unfortunately I don't think we'll ever really have a "good" metric for individual shark performance besides watching and personal opinions.

[Capital Knockers]

We all just argued against RPDs Mantra.

Knockers:
When you're cornered you can't always get off 3 reps, especially if your shark just died a half second before you and the enemy's spiders are right right next to you. Their shots will go right through it and you're lucky to get off more than 1. This is especially true if you're trying to push the enemy back with your reps or displace the ships to give your team more breathing room. You're not always going to get those 3 reps off because you're trying to save your reps. Like Rednaz said, it's quality over quantity as far as reps go.

Flag touches are another non-issue because you can easily rack up a huge amount of flag touches (50+) just by sharing a flag with an enemy ship. I've had more than a few 50+ flag touch games in TWD just because of being next to another out of rep shark sitting on a flag.

If you're on an aggressive push (think 6-8 of you alive with 2-4 of them alive on the other end of the fr) there's almost never a time as a shark should touch that flag when you can spend that extra second to push them into a corner for a TD... it's the terr's job to touch the flag and drop your remaining guys forward.

I agree that placing your reps is more important, but I can't quite understand why you can't get all of them off anyways. Even if you just waste on inbetween getting from good rep 1, to good rep 2. As long as you aren't repping mines into your team or something, it's better than not repping and dying. I'd rather stay alive that extra second for my other shark, even if the rep wasn't that great, it still pushed an extra two bullets away. DOAs are the only thing that should really prevent you from getting 3 reps off, that or fixing timing/not wanting to rep a mine into a teammate.

I agree with the FT as well, but if someone gets 50+ FT isn't that worth a +3 bonus or something? You guys are all arguing that certain stats are completely useless. All I'd like is more variables, even if we have to use extremes. Like I said, no TWL shark, I don't care wtf you're doing should be under 2 RPD, if you are, you should lose R pts on TWLM right? I just want it to be more than W/L.

[PaulOakenfold]

If you are under 2 RPD you will be losing TWLM points because your team will have lost.

Like I said, rep ignore and spiders right next to you (especially when they all have 40 more ms than you, I usually have around 10) are going to go right through you and only need one hit to cancel the rest of your following reps sometimes when you're in a cornered situation, but it's enough to throw off any RPD statistics. Sure, you can fast rep, but it isn't always what a cornered team needs most and can be nullified by just one spider that happens to be a little laggier than you. Taking RPD into account will make mediocre sharks look really really good compared to the team around them.

Like I said, I don't think extremes should come into play, there's no reason for it. When they actually do come into play it's usually a fluke in the current cram and surge fr battle system of basing. Shark is a team oriented ship, and it can pull great feats on its own, but they can't be recorded by any of the statistics we have right now. Your team should have enough faith in you that you will do whatever is possible for them to, stay alive, keep your spiders that are in the line of fire alive, disperse, kill, but ultimately win the game, and that's what matters - the wins.

The more variables that are placed on a Shark's success, the less freedom he/she has as a player.