About Predictions

[Louis XV]

How can I put this?

You guys should stop making predictions. Here's why: You can't possibly know enough about a squad to (brb havetopiss.. k back) make accurate predictions. They only way to get the inside info on a squad is to be in the squad. And at that point, your views will be skewed. So we're all fucked.

But, you say, remember when that dude did that prediction competition on the forums during TWL? Don't remember who it was, shout if it's you. Anyway, since there are only two outcomes to a match, predictors will be 50% right on average. And if you take into account the fact that some games will be grossly mismatched, you will always be guaranteed some correct predictions, biasing the average above 50%. Predicting is pure luck, plus a bit of obvious observation.

The only way to get an edge in predictions is to really be "in on" things, knowing what's going on. Objective knowledge of other squads' inner workings is key. And it has to be up-to-date knowledge - things change quickly in TW.

Now I'll argue against myself:

1) Predicting is really fun, especially when it's a competition.
2) People with more "experience," or people who are more socially involved with other squads, have a SLIGHT predicting advantage.
3) Predicting gets easier as the season progresses.. but meh, even then it's hard. So many squads are hard to gauge (that's what the leagues are for).

Discuss amongst yourselves.

[pv=nrt]

its still fun to pretend i am the smartest man alive

[Webbb Llama v1.5]

It's more fun to predict which squads will dissolve

[Dabram]

there r four kinds of predictioning;

1. the silent ones: they give no reasons.
a. they just want to be the best predictors. (score-wise)
b. they are silent.
c. they know they don't know anything so they just guess. (<- rare)

2. the dumb ones: they try to explain why they predict with very stupid reasons. they often use very bad grammar aswell.
ie: TWLJ: Elusive vs whiterabbits: HAHAHA WRS cant jav, why r they in this league at all?
a. predictors that think they are the shit theirselves and therefor think they can bash at other squads.
b. the mentally challenged (<3 roxy for that word)

3. Key-predictors: The ones that predict on who's on the roster, so who will own:
ie: TWLJ: Elusive vs whiterabbits: Blood will own all
a. the ones that predict a member of a totally different squad to be the one-to-watch. A guy that will get flamed a lot.
b. the ones that think they know who's good and who isn't. (some are pretty accurate)

4. Know-alls: Try to explain how the match will go, who will own, and sometimes use historical facts etc.
ie: TWLJ: Elusive vs whiterabbits: The match will start very close (0:0). Then Elusive will take an easy lead, with players like: Psymorph, Treachery and Joe showing WRs what real javs are like. But Elusive shouldn't underestimate WRs, because they've been growing in the javs a lot lately. But it won't be a close match in my eyes since WRs have never came close to beating Elusive in javs.

a. The ones that act like they're on a squad but because of that show how new they really are. (<- good laugh)
b. The ones that make very long predictions on their own squad, very biased.
c. The best predictors, good objective predictions of why and who will win, tho need to watch out they don't write too much. (like me in this post)

[Louis XV]

I love you dabby

[dare]

Well if you look at hockey zone they have an excellent prediction system. Some people (e.g. Judge) are very involved with the game and get almost perfect predictions over a hundred or so games.

However, the hockey zone community is much smaller so following the player base is much easier. TW is a big fat chunk of people.

Also, luck has a slightly larger effect on the possible outcomes in TW, as it is rare that anyone "lucks" a goal in HZ. Upsets are more common in TW.

Regardless, it is inevitable that some losers will spend so much time observing other players that they will be able to decipher a winner from two teams.

The minute it comes to any teams in the vicinity of the "top", however, it will always be a tossup.

Hence, TW predictions are useless, louis wins again.

[Sleepy Weasel]

That was vykromond that did the prediction competition thing.

[Verthanthi]

I predict because I am not good enough to play. I hope that through if I predict correctly I may receive some small amount of fame for the successes of others.

edit: I forgot to mention cripples will win all five leagues.

[Jason]

That's a sound strategy Shade. :]

[Louis XV]

Originally posted by dare
The minute it comes to any teams in the vicinity of the "top", however, it will always be a tossup.

Yup.

[TajaUk]

most of the predictions are utter crap. They centre of one or two of the top games and just guess the rest. I am yet to see one decent prediction/analysis of most of the squads outside the top 4.

If your gonna do something at least research the squad, look at their players and TWD/J/B results and offer an alternative to the usual crap on here...

[PaulOakenfold]

You guys are under estimating a lot of these predictions. Most of these people put predictions up just so they have a place to remind them who they picked, but allow other people to look at them.

They're opinions, don't take them to heart, even if they ARE ignorant.

[CommanderEnder]

I find it amusing to see the predictions "NS will get there ass kicked" "BS vs NS? F this S!" "Not even close"

[death row]

Agreed with Lou.

I think some ppl have way to much time on their hands if they run down each squad... and talk about the obvious:

Retard67> Yeah Elusive is a good jav team, this might be abit risky.. but I predict they will win the jav game. (ya think?)


If you can actually predict the winner out of +wBDYnAsty+ against *T>R>L**.. then you really know your stuff. lolol

[Galleleo]

I think wadi is a good predictor