TW Mafia: Still Worthy

[field]

Well, it depends on whose still alive, but... probably? Imo, scum will have to choose between whether to NK a skilled player who possibly is a PR and be blocked for it, or someone that the NK will almost certainly work on due to no protection like Jessup. In my view, Jessup being essentially a VT (if town) and a liability means the doc would protect someone else, making the odds greater of either stopping the NK or having Jessup die. Both are good outcomes for tomorrow, because the remaining player pool is less unreliable with ixt and jessup gone. Granted, this is assuming Jessup is town. If she's scum, then at least the doc has better odds of protecting the real NK target.

So yeah, I think the odds are either the same or greater, since the NK could be stopped, Jessup could be gone, investigations will give more results to narrow down the list of possible scum, etc. I don't really see there being a better option without a straight up guilty result given today.

Gripe narrowed down the probabilities, you should rethink.

[Exalt]

I probably didn't specify that very well. I see the odds in a vacuum being 43%. Do you think our chances if we do a no lynch are 43% with this particular group of players if we do a no lynch? Sorry about the double post, I don't think my previous post was very clear and I didn't want to pull a Jessup by asking a question you've already answered

Well, it depends on whose still alive, but... probably? Imo, scum will have to choose between whether to NK a skilled player who possibly is a PR and be blocked for it, or someone that the NK will almost certainly work on due to no protection like Jessup. In my view, Jessup being essentially a VT (if town) and a liability means the doc would protect someone else, making the odds greater of either stopping the NK or having Jessup die. Both are good outcomes for tomorrow, because the remaining player pool is less unreliable with ixt and jessup gone. Granted, this is assuming Jessup is town. If she's scum, then at least the doc has better odds of protecting the real NK target.

So yeah, I think the odds are either the same or greater, since the NK could be stopped, Jessup could be gone, investigations will give more results to narrow down the list of possible scum, etc. I don't really see there being a better option without a straight up guilty result given today.

[RoDNeY]

I'm probably not gonna make it to D5 without claiming, so may as well do it now

Peter Parker aka Spiderman, Town Sensor

With my Spidey Senses, on even nights I can analyze any vote train that resulted in a lynch that day and get and the number of Mafia that we're on it. This is the reason I hesitated moving my vote on to fis, but after thinking about it I guess it didn't matter. This is also the reason I said D3 is my big day, and that if I roleclaim it will render my role useless. Of the 6 votes on fis yesterday, 2 were mafia. This means 1 of the mafia didn't vote for her (assuming there are 3 since there was an sk). Interesting that field didn't vote but shows up right after the phase change..

This is actually huge if true, nobody has rebuttled your spiderman claim so I can believe that, also sensor is a strange af role but at this point I'm not sure what is considered strange in this game.

I'm on mobile rn so I cant go back and check who was on fis until I get to my computer but that's probably a good place to start the process of elimination

also, how did a pgo serial killer die without taking someone with them? Or did ixt bus himself with kthx and ixt was the mafia target? That would be legendary if true

[the_paul]

If we lose this for the reason I think, I am going to fucking erupt

[the_paul]

I'm probably not gonna make it to D5 without claiming, so may as well do it now

Peter Parker aka Spiderman, Town Sensor

With my Spidey Senses, on even nights I can analyze any vote train that resulted in a lynch that day and get and the number of Mafia that we're on it. This is the reason I hesitated moving my vote on to fis, but after thinking about it I guess it didn't matter. This is also the reason I said D3 is my big day, and that if I roleclaim it will render my role useless. Of the 6 votes on fis yesterday, 2 were mafia. This means 1 of the mafia didn't vote for her (assuming there are 3 since there was an sk). Interesting that field didn't vote but shows up right after the phase change..

About to drive to another job site but I wanted to quote this and add:

fiS- 6 (Voth, Exalt, Halp, sdrawkcab, the_paul, kthx)

[field]

That was a good post by Exalt. I am leaning towards him being townie. A bit dated now considering we have 50% chance of lynching scum (based on halp's post).

That leaves us with Voth, backwards, the_paul.

TP has been acting like a groupie all game, and jumping on wagons led by voth and kthx. That's quite scummy in my book.

I'm going to vote: voth. I think out of the 3, he's played the scummiest.

[the_paul]

I probably didn't specify that very well. I see the odds in a vacuum being 43%. Do you think our chances if we do a no lynch are 43% with this particular group of players if we do a no lynch? Sorry about the double post, I don't think my previous post was very clear and I didn't want to pull a Jessup by asking a question you've already answered

[the_paul]

I'm hungover right now, but this needs to be said:

We are almost certainly in a MYLO (mislynch and lose) scenario. One bad wagon almost certainly loses the game.

If there were 4 scum, then we started with 7 town. We lost 3, so scum would have won today with the SK gone by tying 4 scum with 4 town. That means there has to be only 3 scum, which makes sense with an SK in the game. This means we likely have 5 town left against 3 scum.

We have two choices to make here due to this:

1. We lynch someone, and if it's a mislynch, we pray that a doctor or something saves the game by stopping scum's NK.

2. We No Lynch again, giving town investigation roles one more night to hopefully find scum, as well as a doctor or whatever another chance to block the NK.

This may be the one and only time in mafia where you'll see me advocate for an actual No Lynch, because it's the best strategic play possible today. It wouldn't be if we didn't No Lynch on Day 1, but this is the situation Jessup put us in.

If you need an explanation as to why this is the correct play, this is what we are looking at:

If we lynch today and it isn't on scum, our only hope to win is a doctor or some other protective role saving the game at night by blocking the NK. If the doctor is some oblivious player like backwards, then odds are we lose. Also, all scum have to do is NK someone no doctor in their right mind would protect like Jessup (if jessup is actually town), the NK will get through and we lose. The only thing I will say in favor of this scenario is to think about how ridiculously epic it will be for us to lose the game due to fucking Jessup being NKed, rather than her losing the game the normal way (being kept alive to vote town).

If we choose to No Lynch, the worst case scenario is we will go down to 4 town vs 3 scum. The chance to lynch scum goes up from 37.5% (3 scum ? 8 players left = 37.5%) to around 43% (3 scum ? 7 players left = 42.857%). We also get another night for the cop or whoever else to get a guilty result. Barring that, the cop or whoever else can at least get more innocent results, thus narrowing down the scum player pool even more.

Frankly, I find it dumb as hell that we have to NL twice in one game, but unless someone has a guilty result to give today, it's statistically and strategically the best chance for a town win. Also, Jessup might even be the NK (since its nearly assured to go through), giving us addition by subtraction in more ways than one.

This post strikes me as super pro-town all the way through. Exalt, I see your math and I get that. What do you think the odds of us pulling this out if we decide to pursue a no lynch?

[Halp]

I'm probably not gonna make it to D5 without claiming, so may as well do it now

Peter Parker aka Spiderman, Town Sensor

With my Spidey Senses, on even nights I can analyze any vote train that resulted in a lynch that day and get and the number of Mafia that we're on it. This is the reason I hesitated moving my vote on to fis, but after thinking about it I guess it didn't matter. This is also the reason I said D3 is my big day, and that if I roleclaim it will render my role useless. Of the 6 votes on fis yesterday, 2 were mafia. This means 1 of the mafia didn't vote for her (assuming there are 3 since there was an sk). Interesting that field didn't vote but shows up right after the phase change..

[Exalt]

I'm hungover right now, but this needs to be said:

We are almost certainly in a MYLO (mislynch and lose) scenario. One bad wagon almost certainly loses the game.

If there were 4 scum, then we started with 7 town. We lost 3, so scum would have won today with the SK gone by tying 4 scum with 4 town. That means there has to be only 3 scum, which makes sense with an SK in the game. This means we likely have 5 town left against 3 scum.

We have two choices to make here due to this:

1. We lynch someone, and if it's a mislynch, we pray that a doctor or something saves the game by stopping scum's NK.

2. We No Lynch again, giving town investigation roles one more night to hopefully find scum, as well as a doctor or whatever another chance to block the NK.

This may be the one and only time in mafia where you'll see me advocate for an actual No Lynch, because it's the best strategic play possible today. It wouldn't be if we didn't No Lynch on Day 1, but this is the situation Jessup put us in.

If you need an explanation as to why this is the correct play, this is what we are looking at:

If we lynch today and it isn't on scum, our only hope to win is a doctor or some other protective role saving the game at night by blocking the NK. If the doctor is some oblivious player like backwards, then odds are we lose. Also, all scum have to do is NK someone no doctor in their right mind would protect like Jessup (if jessup is actually town), the NK will get through and we lose. The only thing I will say in favor of this scenario is to think about how ridiculously epic it will be for us to lose the game due to fucking Jessup being NKed, rather than her losing the game the normal way (being kept alive to vote town).

If we choose to No Lynch, the worst case scenario is we will go down to 4 town vs 3 scum. The chance to lynch scum goes up from 37.5% (3 scum ? 8 players left = 37.5%) to around 43% (3 scum ? 7 players left = 42.857%). We also get another night for the cop or whoever else to get a guilty result. Barring that, the cop or whoever else can at least get more innocent results, thus narrowing down the scum player pool even more.

Frankly, I find it dumb as hell that we have to NL twice in one game, but unless someone has a guilty result to give today, it's statistically and strategically the best chance for a town win. Also, Jessup might even be the NK (since its nearly assured to go through), giving us addition by subtraction in more ways than one.

[field]

field do you think Voth is playing differently from past games??

I don't think he is. I also wouldn't factor the game I hosted in my analysis because he was a bulletproof town 2-shot commuter (duh).

Regardless, he's not a mafia newbie so doing meta analysis on him is an exercise in futility. Experienced mafia players know how to adjust their playstyles.

[sdrawkcab]

field do you think Voth is playing differently from past games??

[sdrawkcab]

Lol field you guys play setups on here giving out power roles and factions like Oprah giving away cars

[sdrawkcab]

A massive explosion shook the entire block, as debris rained down from several stories up the building where the bomb was set off. There was no shelter to get underneath- Tony suited up and started blasting the falling side-wall, while the rest of us turned towards an approaching Chitauri regiment.

"Move quickly," Fury commanded, as the battle resumed.

Blows were traded, shots fired, and with each successful kill I felt more and more at home. But it still wasn't quite right. Battle is not the same without my hammer. I raised my arm to summon it, but nothing came. Was it truly destroyed, or am I no longer worthy?

As the dust settled, we looked around at who remained. Miraculously, all of us survived, except for Missa aka Black Panther. She was crushed by falling debris. She was the Town Tracker.

Begin Day 2

page 39

[field]

I apologize to all (especially Will) for my hiatus. I have a licensing exam this Friday and needed to catch up on my studies. My activity will be somehow limited from now until Friday, and after that it will go back to normal. I don't need a sub so please don't sub me.

After catching up on the game, all I can say is so much shit could have been avoided if only people read the rules. WillBy explicitly says "only an above average skill for deduction can save you." That means stop reading too much into the flavor. That also means character names aren't indicative of alignment, and now we have confirmation (after kthx death).

I can also say that halp, voth, or both are scum.

And I'd like to preface the reasons with vote: halp.

halp - what's the best way for scum to hide in plain sight? Appear like they're contributing pro-town information without really doing anything. And that's all halp has done: try to policy lynch ixt. Pretending that he's mafia bus driver, while in all the games we have played together not once has there been such a role, is kinda the cherry on top for me. Ixt was likely chosen for a lynch because he's an easy target, and when that didn't materialize they hammered fis. Also, too quick on that vote there... Are you in such a hurry to win now that the 3rd party was killed last night? By my count, if we mislynch today the scum will win next night. Let's policy lynch the policy lyncher!

Voth - He's too confident and doesn't even entertain the possibility that he's wrong. ("Sorry fis, I fucked up" is not an acceptable defense when you've been known to railroad townies as scum). I accused Exalt of the same, but from what I've seen Exalt has at least tried to engage with others and change his position accordingly. The way the fis train formed to save him. He also entertained the mafia bus driver theory for a while. And I don't like the obvious questioning of (Jessup?) about the fact that there is no concrete information to vote based on. Jessup is Jessup, but you appear to be using his idiocy to present yourself as townie, and I don't buy it.

I'd also like to note an odd discrepancy in one of the posts backwards made where he was trying to gauge number of scum players in the setup. Normally, it's 1/3 of players (=4 this game), but backwards estimate was at 2. With a third party present, it is likely that backwards had preconceived knowledge about setup info. Scum love to analyze setup info, especially so early in the game. It makes them appear townie without risk of revealing anything or misspeaking.