TW Mafia 2020: TIGER KING - Murder, Mayhem, Madness

[Voth]

m_leonhard, that was a good post. Thanks for that, I can't find anything wrong with it. I'm on the fence still, especially with the psychiatrist/psychologist thing going on with Willby, but to have the mafia use (what should be) an x-shot strongman role on night 1 and also conveniently hit the same target the jailkeeper was going for... those odds are just too long for me. Stranger things have happened, we've seen it before, but still... damn that would be something.

Are those odds that long?

First, the player I targeted is Exalt. Why? Because he's perpetually targeted night 1. My feeling was that if the night ended without a kill or there was a kill but the kill text made it clear it was a SK kill, that it would lend some credibility about him being town in my mind. I also don't want to lose Exalt if he is town because he is a strong player. For that same reason, I could see using a strongman hit on him N1.

You all say it's impossible a scum team would use a strongman hit N1 - that's all well and good, but look at it from a different angle - you never know when your number is called and you are up for a lynch during any given Day phase for numerous reasons. Holding onto strongman hits perpetually until you know you will hit a power role is not awesome if you get lynched or killed by a vig or SK without using them. Just something to think about.

I get the idea of deciding who to lynch based on what tells us the most. I also think it's worth taking into account how people have been playing the game, and I think that anyone paying attention has seen me out here posting a ton and scum hunting. I could easily do the minimum to appear active enough but not really help scumhunt at all, or even lurk and blame a cranky baby on it. Either option is better for my survival and reaching my win condition if I was scum this game - but instead I'm hunting scum and probably the most active poster in the game.

[WillBy]

FYI, re Q: “if willby flips psychiatrist, does that guarantee there’s a serial killer?”

from the mafiascum wiki on psychiatrist: “Because of its rarity and specific nature, it should be noted that Psychiatrist is arguably more likely to appear without a Serial Killer in the game than with.”

Link: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Psychiatrist

WillBy i know I asked you this about the previous page I linked to (which was the wrong page—for psychologist), will you please confirm that this mafiascum page for “psychiatrist” is the same (mechanically) as your role? If it differs, please specify how so.

Yes, looks more or less the same. I dont want to get close to the rule about quoting role PMs, I'm going to ask Halp if what I want to say is okay. It has to do with the result of the action if successful. I'll update when I get a chance.

[the_paul]

m_leonhard, that was a good post. Thanks for that, I can't find anything wrong with it. I'm on the fence still, especially with the psychiatrist/psychologist thing going on with Willby, but to have the mafia use (what should be) an x-shot strongman role on night 1 and also conveniently hit the same target the jailkeeper was going for... those odds are just too long for me. Stranger things have happened, we've seen it before, but still... damn that would be something.

[PartyFalcon]

FYI, re Q: “if willby flips psychiatrist, does that guarantee there’s a serial killer?”

from the mafiascum wiki on psychiatrist: “Because of its rarity and specific nature, it should be noted that Psychiatrist is arguably more likely to appear without a Serial Killer in the game than with.”

Link: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Psychiatrist

WillBy i know I asked you this about the previous page I linked to (which was the wrong page—for psychologist), will you please confirm that this mafiascum page for “psychiatrist” is the same (mechanically) as your role? If it differs, please specify how so.

[m_leonhard]

Im hoping that by explaining all of this it may encourage some of the less vocal players to share their thoughts between Voth and willby without feeling like they’re going to get dragged through the mud for it. I don’t think it’s helpful to use this day phase to badger everyone currently voting for voth or willby and threaten to lynch them for being scum if they don’t change their vote from one to the other—EITHER ONE IS A PERFECTLY FINE LYNCH FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A TOWNIE WHO IS ONLY RELYING ON HUNCHES.

Thank you. Alright, here's my thoughts.

I think we're all on the same page here: neither Voth or Willby's stories seem completely correct. I think we all agree that they're both on the chopping block. Right now, we just need to determine order. Someone earlier said they focus on narrative more than consequences, but right now, we absolutely should be focusing on consequences and thinking how this plays out.

I don't have the benefit of the meta gaming from all of you knowing each other's play-style, so instead, I'm looking at this without that in mind. I've tried to imagine the logical consequences of each lynch. Keep in mind, I'm still figuring this out, so if there's a gap in reasoning by virtue of lack of role knowledge, I'm open to hearing it and supplementing this analysis.

Sorry in advance for the giant post.

Lynching Willby

Option One: Flips Psychiatrist

• Knowledge Gained
  • We know there is a serial killer (right, that role only occurs w/a serial killer, yes?)
  • We know Voth is lying about his role.
  • We know Voth is some killing role -- either scum, or serial killer, or cult.
• Subsequent Effects:
  • We have killed our psychiatrist (after all those years of schooling too...)
  • We will need to find that serial killer.
  • We need to lynch Voth.

Option Two: Flips Strongman

• Knowledge Gained
  • Lends credibility to Voth's claim as jailer;
    • Doesn't necessarily confirm it, he could have been there for other reasons.
• Effect:
  • We've removed a mafia power role.
  • We will need to monitor Voth (and pay careful attention to what happens at night)

Option Three: Flips scum but not strongman

• Knowledge Gained:
  • We know Voth is lying
• Effect:
  • Whoo! Dead scum.
  • We will need to lynch Voth.

Option Four: Flips third party

• Knowledge Gained:
  • We know Voth is lying.
    • Not certain if a killing role, but definitely not a jailer.
  • We know there is a third-party
• Effect:
  • Whoo! Dead third party.
  • We will need to lynch Voth.

Lynching Voth

Option One: Flips Jailer

• Knowledge Gained
  • We know Willby is a mafia strongman.
• Subsequent Effects
  • We've killed our jailer.
  • We will need to lynch Willby next day.

Option Two: Flips Scum

• Knowledge Gained
  • Willby is likely not a strongman or scum.
    • I may be wrong on that, but why would scum send two? (That's a genuine question is there a reason they might?)
    • Might be a third party.
  • Lends credibility to Willby's claim as town.
    • Doesn't necessarily confirm, could have been there for other reasons.
• Subsequent Effect
  • Whoo! Dead scum.
  • We will need to monitor Willby (and pay careful attention to what happens in the night).

Option Three: Flips Serial Killer

• Knowledge Gained
  • Lends credibility to Willby's claim of psychiatrist.
    • Does not necessarily confirm, he could have been there for other reasons.
  • We know that there is a serial killer.
• Subsequent Effect:
  • Whoo! Dead serial killer.
  • We will need to monitor Willby (pay careful attention to what happens in the night)

Option Four: Flips Third-Party

• Knowledge Gained
  • We know there's a third party, not necessarily serial killer
    • Lends credibility to the "if there is a cult" role description claim.
  • Lends credibility to Willby's claim as psychiatrist
    • Doesn't necessarily confirm, might very well still be scum.
• Subsequent Effect
  • Whoo! Dead third party.
  • We will need to monitor Willby(pay careful attention to what happens in the night)

In three of the four scenarios involving lynching Willby, we will automatically have to lynch Voth the following day. In only one of the four scenarios involving lynching Voth, we will have to automatically lynch Willby the following day.

Basically, if we lynch Willby today,we learn a lot about Voth and only Voth. The odds are also high that we will just have to turn around and lynch Voth tomorrow, and it won't give us a ton of information about the rest of the town's makeup.

If we lynch Voth, we may not learn a lot about Willby. However, we will learn more about the general makeup of the town. The odds are higher that we will be able to explore other lynch options tomorrow.

I acknowledge the problem with lynching Voth is that it gives us less definite information on Willby. However, I think greater information gained on the town as a whole outweighs the slightly less info gained on one individual.

I am open to changing this, but for right now, I'm going to say Vote Voth.

[kthx]

Theres more protection roles than just doctor. Which shouldn't seem weird given there are 15 investigators.

[Kassius]

First of all, I have been reading the thread Willby just not posting a ton. Second, Backwards, town doctor was claimed by beast. Third, although Jessup seems awesome there’s been no pming between us.

claims so far:
beast- doctor (Howard Baskins)
jessup- town innocent child, confirmed (Joe Exotic)
Voth- town jailor w two shot or something like that (Carol Baskins)- says she jailed Exalt
the_paul- town watcher I think (forget what character)- says he saw Voth and Willby visit Exalt last night
me/overthinking it- town voyeur (Joshua Dial)- saw kthx be blocked
Willby- town psychiatrist (Jeff Lowe)- I think he agrees that he visited Exalt
(kthx- notably no claims)

To me the scenario that incorporates all of this info best is the_Paul saw Voth jail Exalt and Willby strongman kill him. I saw beast protect Jessup (only confined towny makes sense) while kthx tried to kill or recruit Jessup. Am I leaving anything out?

So you've seen two people now, in one night? What a power role you have to be in two places at once. Both at kthx's and Jessup's house.

[OverthinkingIt]

First of all, I have been reading the thread Willby just not posting a ton. Second, Backwards, town doctor was claimed by beast. Third, although Jessup seems awesome there’s been no pming between us.

claims so far:
beast- doctor (Howard Baskins)
jessup- town innocent child, confirmed (Joe Exotic)
Voth- town jailor w two shot or something like that (Carol Baskins)- says she jailed Exalt
the_paul- town watcher I think (forget what character)- says he saw Voth and Willby visit Exalt last night
me/overthinking it- town voyeur (Joshua Dial)- saw kthx be blocked
Willby- town psychiatrist (Jeff Lowe)- I think he agrees that he visited Exalt
(kthx- notably no claims)

To me the scenario that incorporates all of this info best is the_Paul saw Voth jail Exalt and Willby strongman kill him. I saw beast protect Jessup (only confined towny makes sense) while kthx tried to kill or recruit Jessup. Am I leaving anything out?

[kthx]

Is this legit kthx or are you just fucking with Jessup?

It was a legitimate concern but after discussing it with Halp perhaps I am jumping the gun. I did happen to target last Jessup last night and assumed it was information shared privately by overthinking. But it turns out it was a good guess instead. However I'm not cult, and my action was a protection action considering it was the only confirmed town. But my apologies either way.

[the_paul]

Is this legit kthx or are you just fucking with Jessup?

[kthx]

Let's see the proof. If Jessup is pming people for the second game in a row I do have a legitimate problem with that.

I want to talk to halp first.

[Vehicle]

I'd also like to publically accuse Jessup, OverthinkingThis and the town Voyeur (forgot his name) of playing the game through PM's and not through this thread, and have proof of said faggotry.

Let's see the proof. If Jessup is pming people for the second game in a row I do have a legitimate problem with that.

[kthx]

I'd also like to publically accuse Jessup, OverthinkingThis and the town Voyeur (forgot his name) of playing the game through PM's and not through this thread, and have proof of said faggotry.

[WillBy]

WillBy someone said there was 2 people who visited exalt. Voth and Willby. Once that was posted, nothing voth or willby say is even worth reading until one of the two is lynched. Unless one of you claimed doctor, did you claim doctor? If you didn't claim doctor, you're as good of a lynch as voth. I put my vote on you because it looked like you were up, and to avoid a possible tie made by scum more townies need to just agree on which of the two to lynch.

Confirmed, hasnt been reading thread

[sdrawkcab]

WillBy someone said there was 2 people who visited exalt. Voth and Willby. Once that was posted, nothing voth or willby say is even worth reading until one of the two is lynched. Unless one of you claimed doctor, did you claim doctor? If you didn't claim doctor, you're as good of a lynch as voth. I put my vote on you because it looked like you were up, and to avoid a possible tie made by scum more townies need to just agree on which of the two to lynch.