Election Thread #1 -real version (Let's see how long we can stay on topic)

[GoldenPlums]

That's some fine work vyk, but I can't take no more.

[Vykromond]

Edwards is talking. He just said something about every vote being counted. "We will fight for every vote," he says. The first gauntlet, it would seem, has been dropped for the Ohio war.

[Vykromond]

GP, neither can I- I'm fucking falling over here. I think I'm going to bed in a second, actually. This election isn't getting decided tonight.

[Vykromond]

Bush is ahead in Nevada, and New Mexico, and Iowa. Kerry is ahead in Wisconsin, and Michigan. You know the story in Ohio.

[Vykromond]

Bush (Rep)* 2706778 51%
Kerry (Dem) 2581451 49%


% of precincts reporting: 97


is how it's been for twenty minutes, and I'm sick of the stasis. As a result, I am signing off for the night and getting some bed-rest. I have been using -> http://abcnews.go.com/sections/polit...president.html <- as a numerical resource for the Ohio competition. ABC has been outstanding statistically in this election, and if you're still going to stay up I recommend you stick with their counter and, perhaps, their news service as we find out just what kind of kung fu Kerry is going to bring.

[Vykromond]

Looks like it's 286-252, and 266-252 without Ohio.

Current Nevada statistic (for 5 electors):
Bush (Rep)* 346717 50%
Kerry (Dem) 332017 48%
Nader (Ind) 3984 1%
None of These Candidates (Una) 3033 1%


% of precincts reporting: 80
(Margin: 14k-ish)

Current New Mexico (for 5 electors):
Bush (Rep)* 275386 52%
Kerry (Dem) 245804 47%
Nader (Ind) 2913 1%


% of precincts reporting: 95
(Margin: 30k-ish)

Current Iowa (for 7 electors):
Bush (Rep)* 727439 50%
Kerry (Dem) 715876 49%
Nader (PEC) 5628 1%


% of precincts reporting: 97
(Margin: 11.5k-ish)


Current Wisconsin:
Kerry (Dem) 1303766 50%
Bush (Rep)* 1283057 49%
Nader (Ind) 14194 1%


% of precincts reporting: 89
(Margin: 20k-ish)


Current Michigan:
Kerry (Dem) 1861943 51%
Bush (Rep)* 1772496 48%
Nader (Ind) 18295 1%


% of precincts reporting: 80
(Margin: 20k-ish)


NH and Hawaii went for Kerry after all.

Good night, everybody!

[Vykromond]

Ahh fuck, I might as well put an appendix so you guys realize that this ain't ending soon:

"Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said that by law, provisional and absentee ballots won't be counted until 11 days after the election. He said he could not immediately put an estimate on the number of those ballots, but he said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility."

(from CNN)

[Vykromond]

Bush (Rep)* 2739009 51%
Kerry (Dem) 2600056 49%


% of precincts reporting: 98

Margin: 138,953


I need. To go. To bed.

[DOTSY]

woah this all in one night :chair: :madlocked :yawn:

[lunch3]

ty for info vykromond, here's latest..i love copy and paste

whoever wins Ohio wins election atm. Bush is ahead by 150,000 votes so far out of about 5 million votes counted there. they will have to wait 11 days to even start counting provisional votes (these are votes by people who weren't on registry for one reason or another, they need 11 days to verify that which and how many of these votes are legitimate to count). They also need to count the absentee ballots, votes from Americans over seas in another country. Many of these votes are from American soldiers, and from polling military members tend to vote for Bush...

vyks says some guy said there may be something like 250,000 of these votes to count...if there is about 200,000 are needed to be voted for Kerry...for him to win.

[Galleleo]

I didnt read all this, because my last unread post was page 2. Anyways, from the map jerome posted on like page 4 or something, it looks like Bush is winning, as far as I could make up from that map 3 states are yet to be decided and they are all leaning towards Bush.

[Vykromond]

Here's how things stand as of this morning.

By a margin of several thousand, Bush has won in Nevada. With 99% of precincts reporting, NM and Iowa are also his by a small margin. This all falls in line as predicted yesterday. Correspondingly, Wisconsin shows a Kerry lead. Thus, the electors are arranged as I discussed them at the tail end of last night and we're left, once again, with Ohio.

All of yesterday's votes are now arranged in neat little stacks. All credible sources are using the same statistic ABC gives me, which is:

Bush (Rep)* 2794346 51%
Kerry (Dem) 2658125 49%


% of precincts reporting: 100


As you can see, the last 5% of precincts were dramatically in Bush's favour, increasing the margin from the 100,000-ish figure that it held for 90-95 percent to its current figure of 136,221.

This makes it tough for the provisional votes to make an impact. As Lunch3 said, they need to dramatically swing in Kerry's favour. Let's take the number given by the Kerry camp (which is actually a high), 250,000. To make up the margin difference, Kerry needs 193,111 of these votes or more. That's 77% of the provisional votes! I think that no matter how much the Kerry camp fights this, they just didn't get enough Election Day votes in Ohio to make the provisional vote matter in the long run. The conclusion of this election is more or less written, barring utter insanity.

[Vykromond]

Forget utter insanity. If you move away from the Kerry camp, there ain't no 250,000 figure. ABC News says about 146,883 provisional votes have been cast in the state. If this figure is accurate, Kerry needs 141,552 or more to win Ohio- 96.4%. No.

And Nader wasn't even on the ballot in that state!

[Vykromond]

From the good, ball-dropping folks over at CNN:

Bush leads in Ohio by more than 136,000 votes, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, according to CNN data.

Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell issued orders for counties by 2 p.m. Wednesday to report total numbers of provisional ballots. Counting of those ballots will not begin until Thursday, according to Blackwell's directive.

It is not clear how long the ballot-counting will take. Initially, Blackwell said the counting of provisional and absentee ballots would not begin for 11 days.

He said he could not immediately put an estimate on the number of those ballots but said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility.
While he said the exact number of provisional ballots was unknown, he said it is "trending toward 175,000."

Blackwell suggested that "everybody just take a deep breath and relax."

It's said that the Kerry camp will say... something... around 10:00 AM. I don't think there will be any surprises, but I'll keep you folks posted.

[Vykromond]

No sign of Kerry. Seriously, what the fuck will he say? "96.4% of provisional votes will go to me"?