I remember there was this one JD that Pirates played against Thunder, and I was blabbing in pub chat about "X player requires me to aim for the 30%" or "Y player requires me to aim for the 80%".
Firstly, I'd just like to point out that this type of reasoning only works with trick/bounce shots. Warbird shots can't really be predicted in the same fashion due to the fact that its more of a reflex type of dodge.
What I'm really talking about is that for every location that an enemy is located and for a shot that you can do on them from every side (up down left right and their intermediaries), is a trend that can be recorded and under the pressure, that player will revert to his/her comfort zone, thus making them play into where you want them to be. Certain players are more crafty and will go to the most unpredictable juke even in the worst possible situations, whereas other players will entirely flop and move towards the most predictable exit.
To put this simply...imagine this structure in TWLJ/TWJD
You're X, the opponent is Y. Imagine that you know that the player Y is a player that will tend towards the 90%, meaning he will not be able to detect the most obvious shots that are known to the jav community, he has NOT comprehended 90/100 possible shots in this arena. Therefore, if X shoots a bounce shot from the bottom hole to player Y in a predictable fashion, player Y has a good chance of dying if the shot connects. This shot also happens to be easy on part of player X, and can be considered in the same ratio, that 90/100 javs can make this shot. That's what makes the opponent a 90% target. Interesting yet?
Let's say that Y is actually Psymorph. He knows 95% of all the shots possible in the arena. You can probably only get him with the 5% region of shots that he has not seen or has hardly seen in his career playing in that arena. That 5% has only been attempted by 5% of the populace, and the % to make that shot is considerably lower.
Imagine if these kinds of stats can be compiled for high profile players, would it have any bearing on predictability? Can players really change their primal instincts to incorporate another style of play, away from what they have grown to be comfortable with? Its debatable, and some players would argue that they have no real style of play, which makes it even harder if impossible to register accurate values. Its still fun to think about.
Firstly, I'd just like to point out that this type of reasoning only works with trick/bounce shots. Warbird shots can't really be predicted in the same fashion due to the fact that its more of a reflex type of dodge.
What I'm really talking about is that for every location that an enemy is located and for a shot that you can do on them from every side (up down left right and their intermediaries), is a trend that can be recorded and under the pressure, that player will revert to his/her comfort zone, thus making them play into where you want them to be. Certain players are more crafty and will go to the most unpredictable juke even in the worst possible situations, whereas other players will entirely flop and move towards the most predictable exit.
To put this simply...imagine this structure in TWLJ/TWJD
Code:
| | X | | ------- ---- Y
Let's say that Y is actually Psymorph. He knows 95% of all the shots possible in the arena. You can probably only get him with the 5% region of shots that he has not seen or has hardly seen in his career playing in that arena. That 5% has only been attempted by 5% of the populace, and the % to make that shot is considerably lower.
Imagine if these kinds of stats can be compiled for high profile players, would it have any bearing on predictability? Can players really change their primal instincts to incorporate another style of play, away from what they have grown to be comfortable with? Its debatable, and some players would argue that they have no real style of play, which makes it even harder if impossible to register accurate values. Its still fun to think about.
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