Some javelin theory to ponder about

[Kim]

I remember there was this one JD that Pirates played against Thunder, and I was blabbing in pub chat about "X player requires me to aim for the 30%" or "Y player requires me to aim for the 80%".

Firstly, I'd just like to point out that this type of reasoning only works with trick/bounce shots. Warbird shots can't really be predicted in the same fashion due to the fact that its more of a reflex type of dodge.

What I'm really talking about is that for every location that an enemy is located and for a shot that you can do on them from every side (up down left right and their intermediaries), is a trend that can be recorded and under the pressure, that player will revert to his/her comfort zone, thus making them play into where you want them to be. Certain players are more crafty and will go to the most unpredictable juke even in the worst possible situations, whereas other players will entirely flop and move towards the most predictable exit.

To put this simply...imagine this structure in TWLJ/TWJD

|

|        X
|
|
    -------   ----


  Y

You're X, the opponent is Y. Imagine that you know that the player Y is a player that will tend towards the 90%, meaning he will not be able to detect the most obvious shots that are known to the jav community, he has NOT comprehended 90/100 possible shots in this arena. Therefore, if X shoots a bounce shot from the bottom hole to player Y in a predictable fashion, player Y has a good chance of dying if the shot connects. This shot also happens to be easy on part of player X, and can be considered in the same ratio, that 90/100 javs can make this shot. That's what makes the opponent a 90% target. Interesting yet?

Let's say that Y is actually Psymorph. He knows 95% of all the shots possible in the arena. You can probably only get him with the 5% region of shots that he has not seen or has hardly seen in his career playing in that arena. That 5% has only been attempted by 5% of the populace, and the % to make that shot is considerably lower.

Imagine if these kinds of stats can be compiled for high profile players, would it have any bearing on predictability? Can players really change their primal instincts to incorporate another style of play, away from what they have grown to be comfortable with? Its debatable, and some players would argue that they have no real style of play, which makes it even harder if impossible to register accurate values. Its still fun to think about.

[kthx]

Hmm this is interesting stuff, sometimes I think about warbird teaming and whatnot in terms like this.

But what you are saying would only be based on (lets use the psymorph example) the player playing at 100% of his ability, and the player having 100% energy. Because any lower then 100% of either of those, the chance to make a bad dodging decision or having a prox kill them would make for a higher than 5% chance of dying to a shot, even if it was one of the 95%tile shots.

Still good read, I enjoyed it.

[PjOtTeR]

I know about 99% of all the shots and can anticipate to 99% of them.. the reason why I die most of my deaths is when I anticipate on every shot possible... and since my opponent moves past a point he can do a certain shot I dodge in the other direction, to then have a bomb show late cause of lag and therefor my movement is already so different that I am unable to dodge it... That's why I for example hate to play stayon, dald or brokenfist because about 7 of their 10 kills on me go like that... Therefor they lag to much to me to be considered skilled, eventhough they might just be aswell without that lag...

The thing with dodging in a jav is that you have prox dmg, opposed to the wb... therefor in a jav you are paying more attention to where your opponent will likely go to, so you can bomb the wall and kill with prox... a good dodger in the javelin can predict not only when and where his opponent is likely gonna shoot but also what all his possible shots are and anticipate on that... Yet in certain situation going to exact that location you're likely gonna go is the best option because your opponent just doesn't expect you to be that stupid... and to be honest I miss a lot of kills because I just dont expect people to move in that way and then they do... On a sidenote I also die a lot of times to bombs I just would not expect because they are so simple and I dodge right into them and think: sigh what a boob...

I could talk about this for hours and I could more effectively point out certain stuff I've experienced and teach a lot of you guys a lot about the javelin, but that would require me to use pictures and that would take way too much time...

What I notice with myself is that I have days and moments my aim is stellar... and when that is, my dodge is just par a lot... while on the other hand when my dodge is amazing, my aim is just bad and I can survive really really long without doing any dmg... I always wondered if other javelins experienced the same thing at times as to me it's weird because I really cannot say when I am in the one mood or the other before I start playing...

[megaman89]

What I notice with myself is that I have days and moments my aim is stellar... and when that is, my dodge is just par a lot... while on the other hand when my dodge is amazing, my aim is just bad and I can survive really really long without doing any dmg... I always wondered if other javelins experienced the same thing at times as to me it's weird because I really cannot say when I am in the one mood or the other before I start playing...

Yeah I def get that alot too, one day I'm jding and racking up 15+ kills each and every round. Then the next day I'm finishing rounds like 8-6 or 7-3, some shit like that.

Good stuff kim, I change the way I play against certain people. When I'm playing rushing javs like ease/fludd I sit back more and let them fuck up then I make my moves. But on the other hand say I'm playing steak/exq, rush mode automatically turned on. Because if you let them live long enough they will stray you somehow at least 2x a fucking round or get some stray 2fer. I have no idea how but they just do. If i die to them i'd rather die rushing them instead of getting a bs stray b/c then i just completely lose focus and go into zidane mode

[Singer]

Nice thread,

The greatest thing to me about playing jav is that you dont have to be on top of your game to be able to have good games...

At first there is a certain process of learning on how to kill people, everyone finds their own way of playing at his best style-wise. One thing that doesn't change tho is the map and everything that you can do with it, there's not really a shot that I dont know about as far as Im concerned, its mostly wether or not you think he's gonna do it... Unlike warbirds and basing I find javelins much more interesting since you are more confronted mentally with the people you play against.

The energy, movements and surroundings are all things that you have to observe as you face yourself against someone... it's obvious that being able to aim and dodge is a big plus and it obviously gives you a strong advantage, but I believe that its just as much important or even more, to be able to have a good focus on things.

IE: If you can tell what goes on with your teammates just by looking at the radar once in awhile it can give you the element of surprise on picking up easy kills on people with some nicely laid bullets here and there without having any aim whatsoever, instead of trying low percentage shots with your nice aim.

The whole teaming factor is huge also but I dont feel like talking about it, but it's got alot to do with cohesion rather than "skill" also...

[PaulOakenfold]

With a team it doesn't matter. Am eelam or a vitja will be rushing you at all times; don't make a mistake or you're done.

[LaG KiLLeR]

I remember there was this one JD that Pirates played against Thunder, and I was blabbing in pub chat about "X player requires me to aim for the 30%" or "Y player requires me to aim for the 80%".

Firstly, I'd just like to point out that this type of reasoning only works with trick/bounce shots. Warbird shots can't really be predicted in the same fashion due to the fact that its more of a reflex type of dodge.

What I'm really talking about is that for every location that an enemy is located and for a shot that you can do on them from every side (up down left right and their intermediaries), is a trend that can be recorded and under the pressure, that player will revert to his/her comfort zone, thus making them play into where you want them to be. Certain players are more crafty and will go to the most unpredictable juke even in the worst possible situations, whereas other players will entirely flop and move towards the most predictable exit.

To put this simply...imagine this structure in TWLJ/TWJD

|

|        X
|
|
    -------   ----


  Y

You're X, the opponent is Y. Imagine that you know that the player Y is a player that will tend towards the 90%, meaning he will not be able to detect the most obvious shots that are known to the jav community, he has NOT comprehended 90/100 possible shots in this arena. Therefore, if X shoots a bounce shot from the bottom hole to player Y in a predictable fashion, player Y has a good chance of dying if the shot connects. This shot also happens to be easy on part of player X, and can be considered in the same ratio, that 90/100 javs can make this shot. That's what makes the opponent a 90% target. Interesting yet?

Let's say that Y is actually Psymorph. He knows 95% of all the shots possible in the arena. You can probably only get him with the 5% region of shots that he has not seen or has hardly seen in his career playing in that arena. That 5% has only been attempted by 5% of the populace, and the % to make that shot is considerably lower.

Imagine if these kinds of stats can be compiled for high profile players, would it have any bearing on predictability? Can players really change their primal instincts to incorporate another style of play, away from what they have grown to be comfortable with? Its debatable, and some players would argue that they have no real style of play, which makes it even harder if impossible to register accurate values. Its still fun to think about.

Wish you would have shown such philosophical interest long ago, it's fun to converse about such theories with topgod, genes, and jonathan. Next time you see them, I suggest doing so.

In terms of practicality, even with having such a theoretical foundation, most of it is contextual. In terms of 1 on 1, it's easy to manipulate your style of play versus your opponent because in a 1 v 1, the possible scenarios are limited...and knowing how your opponent plays, you can already forecast what's to be expected. But when it's a 1 v 2, 1 v 5, 5 v 5 (and with no "set" standards because they change so often, and to keep this consistent, let's pretend our opponents are skilled javelins), it's completely different. The pace, style of play (techniques, strategies, etc), you won't have time to statistical methodology into play, you have to rely on basic instincts.



But I won't argue against the idea that an individual may sit down and study the breakdown of statistics and find that (hypothetically speaking) "in 60% of the situation of a specified scenario, an individual will survive if he moves left...blah-blah", and when the individual follows statistics in his/her favor, he/she lives longer (or you can switch the scenario to shot selection, etc).

At the same time, there's no stability in the theory when there are no set standards....with the different and unique existing javelin styles, there's so many potential outliers, etc. Although that doesn't mean that it wouldn't work, it'd be a time-consuming process that may not even guarantee successful outcomes....

but I do appreciate hearing your perspective, especially with the amount of noticeable enthusiasm you showed, it's nice to know that jav philosophy hasn't ceased...

[Kawrae]

That's why I for example hate to play stayon, dald or brokenfist because about 7 of their 10 kills on me go like that... Therefor they lag to much to me to be considered skilled, eventhough they might just be aswell without that lag...

I love it when i miss my shot but they still die. Puts a smile on my face after those invisible bombs i'm supposed to dodge.

[Dreamwin]

Very interesting post kim. Nice read.

[renzi]

and this is why i base. hold down ctrl and forward arrow and youre a decent baser already!

[kthx]

and that is why basing isn't really a great league compared to javs and warbirds.

[PaulOakenfold]

He was being sarcastic. You aren't a great baser because you can't make these kinds of theories about any of the ships; you probably just assume good aim in spider or good dodging in terrier and call it a day.

[Jones]

While we're at it, let's not play the 'Which league is better than which'

[Capital Knockers]

While we're at it, let's not play the 'Which league is better than which'

Every league has it's good things. Warbirds I find is the most nostalgic, as it's been a league longest, and always had the harshest competition back in the old days. Basing is great, pubs organized, bigger teams, co-ordination of multiple ships, the timing and teamwork has to be as perfect as any game.

Although since joining Pirates I find myself enjoying javs more and more. Let's face it, I've specced ALOT of jds. When you're watchin people like Kim, Hercules, plob#f, Singer, Rule, steak666, exquisite, Turban, M_M God etc. as much as I have you start to pick a few things up. I know I bring this up way too often ( but as long as it's going I wont shut up about it) - I've played 11 jds with Pirates since joining on Knockers, and won all 11. They weren't all against Laser or TeKs either. I've recently boosted my avk to 4! B) Point being, all I need to do, is stay alive long enough, provide enough bullet cover, so that when I die, they can clean up.

It's certainly sparked my interest in javs, as did this post. It's funny, but I think being so timid and overshadowed by huge javs like the ones mentioned, that I'm developing an entirely different sort of play-style in javs. Complete support! :grin:

[PH]

some javelin theory to ponder about

even if you know 100% of the shots you can still be brutally raped by a cable puller.