[TW MAFIA] Western Chronicles

[the_paul]

What do you guys think we're looking at numbers wise? Last game we had 13 players, 4 mafia, and a SK. So far it doesn't seem like we have a SK in play, since there was only 1 NK. Reading the kill description, Rodney was out looking to kill someone. Is there any chance he targeted the Godfather, and was also targeted by the mafia? Could explain why he went out looking for a kill, but was unsuccessful and got killed himself. Or he targeted a paranoid gun owner? Wouldn't really explain why there's no mafia kill though, unless the roleblocker got lucky. Not a ton of information, but that's all I can think of.

Exalt, ixt, and Missa are all linked together due to how the election went down. Exalt's lynch decision still makes absolutely no sense to me if he's coming from a town perspective. He had gone hard on Willby from the jump and chose to lynch him instead of someone inactive like Scurvy. I also haven't seen an explanation from Missa or ixt on why they voted to elect Exalt towards the end of the day. Ixt saying he wasn't going to vote on a lynch was also super weird. Exalt jumped my shit for saying this on day 1 last game (which is a common move if allowed), but he seems to have glossed over ixt saying this.

I strongly believe one of missa, ixt, or Exalt needs to go today. If Exalt is mafia, we're especially vulnerable because he can swing an entire day phase with his extra vote later on. We have our backs to the wall being down a vigi and a doctor, we have to get this right today or this game is basically over.

[Voth]

What do you guys think we're looking at numbers wise? Last game we had 13 players, 4 mafia, and a SK. So far it doesn't seem like we have a SK in play, since there was only 1 NK. Reading the kill description, Rodney was out looking to kill someone. Is there any chance he targeted the Godfather, and was also targeted by the mafia? Could explain why he went out looking for a kill, but was unsuccessful and got killed himself. Or he targeted a paranoid gun owner? Wouldn't really explain why there's no mafia kill though, unless the roleblocker got lucky. Not a ton of information, but that's all I can think of.

Exalt, ixt, and Missa are all linked together due to how the election went down. Exalt's lynch decision still makes absolutely no sense to me if he's coming from a town perspective. He had gone hard on Willby from the jump and chose to lynch him instead of someone inactive like Scurvy. I also haven't seen an explanation from Missa or ixt on why they voted to elect Exalt towards the end of the day. Ixt saying he wasn't going to vote on a lynch was also super weird. Exalt jumped my shit for saying this on day 1 last game (which is a common move if allowed), but he seems to have glossed over ixt saying this.

I strongly believe one of missa, ixt, or Exalt needs to go today. If Exalt is mafia, we're especially vulnerable because he can swing an entire day phase with his extra vote later on. We have our backs to the wall being down a vigi and a doctor, we have to get this right today or this game is basically over.

5 mafia vs 8 townies seems awfully stacked against Town. Maybe the Vigilante was supposed to equalize it, but still seems imbalanced.

We need to hear from Undercut regarding his action. If he really is the Town Roleblocker, that info will be huge in the future if someone comes out as a PGO.

[Voth]

And Paul, I agree, if we mess this Lynch up, the game
is likely out of town?s reach at this point. I feel very good with my vote on Exalt. I am definitely not losing site of ixt, Missa, and soilderz. Missa has been frantically
trying to distance herself from ixt, I noticed.

[Zeebu]

i agree with the scum list of missa ixt and soild

[the_paul]

And Paul, I agree, if we mess this Lynch up, the game
is likely out of town?s reach at this point. I feel very good with my vote on Exalt. I am definitely not losing site of ixt, Missa, and soilderz. Missa has been frantically
trying to distance herself from ixt, I noticed.

Agreed, watch who tries to get Exalt off the ledge. If we think there are 4 mafia members, which I agree with, then today is our only chance to get back in the game. 11 players left, 4 mafia members left. Exalt has 2 votes, so if the votes get split between 2 people it's 7 town votes, 5 mafia votes. One townie swinging the other way can make a no lynch, and town loses. I expect at least one of missa/ixt/soil to wait until Exalt posts his upcoming essay, then switch votes and say Exalt changed their mind to defend their decision. Bet on it, watch for it. Town needs to be unanimous today, or the game is mathematically over.

[Undercut]

I'll get around to answering exalt's questions in just a little bit. For everyone asking who i roleblocked last night, it was Exalt.

[field]

[VOTE COUNT]

---

Exalt - 7 (Undercut, Voth, ixt, the_paul, WillBy, Zeebu, Soilderz)

Missing votes: fis, Missa, Exalt, Scurvy

As the votes currently stand, Exalt is set to be lynched.

Yet to post this phase: Scurvy
Scurvy has thus far posted only once during the entire game. He has until around 5 PM today to get active, or I'm going to replace him with Rodney. Does anyone have any objections to Rodney being subbed in?

Phase change:
Tuesday afternoon PST.

[the_paul]

[VOTE COUNT]

---

Exalt - 7 (Undercut, Voth, ixt, the_paul, WillBy, Zeebu, Soilderz)

Missing votes: fis, Missa, Exalt, Scurvy

As the votes currently stand, Exalt is set to be lynched.

Yet to post this phase: Scurvy
Scurvy has thus far posted only once during the entire game. He has until around 5 PM today to get active, or I'm going to replace him with Rodney. Does anyone have any objections to Rodney being subbed in?

Phase change:
Tuesday afternoon PST.

No objection here, anybody active will be a net positive imo. Plus Rodney is my boy

[WillBy]

So I think there has to be 4 mafia, and probably a 3rd party (zeebu?). So the mafia has 5 votes (assuming exalt is mafia), town then has 6 remaining, with 1 for third party. If 3rd party is a survivor, then they should be shooting to lynch a townie today, sealing a victory with mafia. Or if they are SK, then they benefit from removing mafia more. I think we will learn a lot from lynching Exalt.

Re: Rodney, it seems a bit unfair since I was added back, but I'm kind of worried he comes in with additional knowledge about his previous night action. Depending on what Scurvy's role is, and who Rodney targetted, that might be handing some important info to either side. Like, if he found PGO, that would benefit mafia quite a bit if he comes in as mafia. If he targetted the godfather, then that's unfair to mafia. If we found a way to nullify this advantage, then I'd be fully on board.

[the_paul]

Re: Rodney, it seems a bit unfair since I was added back, but I'm kind of worried he comes in with additional knowledge about his previous night action. Depending on what Scurvy's role is, and who Rodney targetted, that might be handing some important info to either side. Like, if he found PGO, that would benefit mafia quite a bit if he comes in as mafia. If he targetted the godfather, then that's unfair to mafia. If we found a way to nullify this advantage, then I'd be fully on board.

Damn, that's a good point. I didn't think about it that way

[WillBy]

Damn, that's a good point. I didn't think about it that way

I would either have field publicly post the results, or more likely swear rodney to secrecy on it. The whole game is built on that sort of trust of course. I'd rather have the +1 players of course.

[Undercut]

1. Who did you roleblock last night and why?

2. If you had won the Mayor position instead of me, who would you have lynched? Don't say me either, because the only reason you decided to call me scum at all was because I won the position and lynched WillBy. So I'll ask again, who would you have lynched if you won Mayor and why?

3. You claim that my scum team voted Voth last second to make sure I won the Mayor spot, even though it's been said by Voth, Doctor WillBy, and me that the Marshall position was far and away the best spot for scum to win. Can you explain why I would go for the Mayor spot instead of Marshall if I was scum, knowing beforehand that it would lead to all this negative attention?

4. Do you know the odds of lynching scum on Day 1 with no information to go off of (not even a role claim when asked)? Can you tell me what those odds are in a 13 player game?

5. What do you think about Voth winning the Marshall spot so easily and without competition?

6. Why did you claim seemingly without reason on Day 1, and why do you think you're still alive even though you did so as a PR?

1. I roleblocked you because I think you're scum.

2. I would have lynched scurvy or ixt. Scurvy hasn't contributed at all other than his vote for voth that secured you the mayor spot. ixt also hasn't really contributed at all and isn't playing his normal weird game where he shouts nonsense all over the thread. He just seems off and his last few games were town and this new attitude might be because he's mafia.

3. I disagree. I think the mayor spot was way better for scum to control. You get an extra vote during the day phase to sway things away from your mafia buddies and you got to freely lynch a townie from the start. You used it to kill a very active townie who also happened to be a PR.

4. Yeah for a mafia member with a free lynch 0%. You didn't look at anyone other than willby during your lynch even though he claimed doctor.

5. I think Voth won the marshall spot because he's a good player who came out from the start with a solid claim. His votes built up over the entire phase aside from scurvy coming out of nowhere to get you the mayor spot.

6. There was no risk to claiming day 1. You could use it to your advantage by trying to make me look scummy because of it but when I flip town anyone who tried to use it to get me killed instantly looks scummy themselves. You know I'm town and killing me now looks really bad on you.

[Zeebu]

So I think there has to be 4 mafia, and probably a 3rd party (zeebu?). So the mafia has 5 votes (assuming exalt is mafia), town then has 6 remaining, with 1 for third party. If 3rd party is a survivor, then they should be shooting to lynch a townie today, sealing a victory with mafia. Or if they are SK, then they benefit from removing mafia more. I think we will learn a lot from lynching Exalt.

Re: Rodney, it seems a bit unfair since I was added back, but I'm kind of worried he comes in with additional knowledge about his previous night action. Depending on what Scurvy's role is, and who Rodney targetted, that might be handing some important info to either side. Like, if he found PGO, that would benefit mafia quite a bit if he comes in as mafia. If he targetted the godfather, then that's unfair to mafia. If we found a way to nullify this advantage, then I'd be fully on board.

youve found me out, i am the ninja SK vampire cult recruiter.

[Zeebu]

actually scratch the vampire part and make it like werewolf or something since i have wolf in my name. seems more thematically correct

[fiS]

Okay so I understand the bandwagon on Exalt. I wont place my vote on him just yet though because I'll give him the chance to defend himself first.
I agree that lynching WillBy wasn't a good choice either way. But you only know it afterwards. Afterwards it's easy to make calls.
Exalt, even if good at mafia, also makes mistakes and can't be spot on with every single decision.
What is scummy indeed is the last minute votes he gathered.

We don't learn anything from a bandwagon forming. Just as all the self-votes on day one.

I'll go ahead and let my thoughts speak (random order):

Missa: Voting Exalt "last Minute" and afterwards coming up with a semi-good explanation. I'll buy it. But then saying that either Voth or Exalt would have been okay seems strange. Missa even said (at least that's how I Interpret it, in post #45) that Voting Exalt wouldn't be a good choice. There's 10+ pages in between and enough to change an opinion, but isn't it odd? Scumlean and maybe my safest bet to be scum - and pretty sure that Missa is scum in case Exalt flips scum.

ixt: claiming to be VT the third game in a row (which simply is false) and already again roleclaiming on day 1, admitting he lost the drive of the game because he's VT again. I notice a somewhat change in behavior. He doesn't seem too eager to post (although previously all he did was follow investigation results). Scumlean for me.

the_paul: Has voted Voth for powerrole and now wants to get rid of Exalt after the misslynch. I do not get any vibes from him actually. I dunno. Posts often appear to be General. Much text, not lots of Content (don't take it personal plz), but that's what I conclude so far. No idea at all, rather town than scum atm.

Undercut: Claimed roleblocker to gain trust and votes. Was the roleclaim neccessary? I think not. Everyone knows roleblocker is a scummy af claim. So why would someone do it. Well, I got no answer. Thinking about it, I wouldn't say that scum needs to claim roleblocker on day one. I will change my opinion here and give him the benefit of the doubt. At this stage there's better targets than him. Townlean.

Exalt: He did his regular essays and questioning just as the way we're used to it. He Pretty much went against Voth, Rodney, and at the end of day 2 he lynched WillBy. (Did I miss someone? Probably.) If we lynch him day 2, there's probably a lot of info we can gain out of it. That is, even if he pops up town, but even more if he flips scum. I still want to hear more from him - actually less general analysis though. In the past, as I recall, he used to call out people. But since he misslynched WillBy he's all defensive and has no other leads than somewhat defending himself. Scumlean.

Voth: Claimed Commuter. My #1 and only day 1 vote. Pretty much voted him at (what I thought was going to be) a random voting stage. Surprise, there was no random voting stage. I didn't change because I do think Voth is a good candidate although he is tunneling Exalt fairly hard at the moment - but he does have legitimate reasons and brings the game forward. Townlean.

Soilderz: Claimed Vanilla townie in his first post. The fk. He did this previously and (afaik) he kept his word. He voted Exalt for day 1 powerole and now seems really easy to get him lynched hopping the bandwagon. Overall I do like his activity, and his content has a sort of honest vibe to me. Not sure, a tad more townlean than scum to me.

Zeebu: Claimed Miller. I dunno what to do with you. I'll buy your claim for now. And the fact that you post more than the last game makes me think you're rather pro town. I didn't like the mass roleclaim idea and it probably was a scummy move. I did like the name nlaim idea and your thoughts behind it. And there's still people who haven't posted their names. Maybe a good lead. Townlean for now.

WillBy/midoent: Not much to say yet. No read.

Scurvy: Not much to say yet. No read.


Summary:
Scumlean: Missa, ixt, Exalt
Townlean: Voth, Zeebu, Undercut
Not sure but rather town: the_paul, Soilderz
No reads: Willby/midoent, Scurvy