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  • Originally posted by Grasps View Post

    yea my math was wrong. SURPRISE? LOL.. but if Wisconsin swings in Trumps favor he'd win and last I check he was only like 20k votes from Biden.
    Did a bit of math on ballots counted and estimated percentage finished. Based on rates of absentee ballots favoring Biden by about 60%, drawn from the trend of absentees (most of the remaining votes, which are time-intensive to process) voting Biden far more often, Biden wins Pennsylvania, Georgia (huh?!), Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin. He loses North Carolina but only by a narrow margin. That's a very rough way to figure it and the 60% figure is highly speculative, bound to be much higher and lower depending on the area, but I'll still stand by it.

    Based on similar estimates, bookies currently give Trump a 6.4% chance of winning, offering odds at +1450. Compare to Tuesday night when Trump was favored at -750 at one point. It's not over, but it's all but.
    "You're a gentleman," they used to say to him. "You shouldn't have gone murdering people with a hatchet; that's no occupation for a gentleman."
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    • Originally posted by qan View Post
      Did a bit of math on ballots counted and estimated percentage finished. Based on rates of absentee ballots favoring Biden by about 60%, drawn from the trend of absentees (most of the remaining votes, which are time-intensive to process) voting Biden far more often, Biden wins Pennsylvania, Georgia (huh?!), Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin. He loses North Carolina but only by a narrow margin. That's a very rough way to figure it and the 60% figure is highly speculative, bound to be much higher and lower depending on the area, but I'll still stand by it.

      Based on similar estimates, bookies currently give Trump a 6.4% chance of winning, offering odds at +1450. Compare to Tuesday night when Trump was favored at -750 at one point. It's not over, but it's all but.
      The annoying part is that this will be dragged out forever due to Trump's constant lawsuits. I'm perfectly fine with recounts happening when the margin is low enough like Michigan I believe, but Trump essentially claims that all mail-in voters are fraudulent. He's now filed a lawsuit in every single remaining state, although Georgia threw it out already.

      The one thing I'm pretty sure won't happen is the Supreme Court getting involved. This isn't the same as the 2000 election at all, and I think Biden will have won in enough states and by a comfortable enough margin to be well over 270. The reason Florida was a thing in the 2000s with Bush/Gore was due to the vote difference being in the hundreds. That low of a margin is essentially a statistical tie, whereas all these other states are not.

      I don't think Trump will succeed in any of his lawsuits, but it does show how much of a crybaby he is about it. His voters are as well, if social media is any indicator. All they can do is scream about fraud, as if Democrat states all across the country managed to work together to remain in the Senate minority, lose seats in the House, but win the presidency by closely coordinating things with Republican ballot watchers and independent election observers sitting right there, and no evidence being found of any type of fraudulent activity. If people think the government is that coordinated at a state level, then they've never had to deal with governmental bureaucracy before.

      I will say one conspiracy theory I have though. Nevada is so slow because the bookies want them to be. The betting market is their bread and butter after all.

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      • Oh, and I believe this will spell the official end to identity politics as well. Exit polls are pretty clear on it not working and that it needs to be thrown out. Every single demographic except white men voted more for Trump in 2020 than in 2016, which should scare the hell out of the moderate Dems who championed Identity Politics in the first place.

        Change from 2016: White Men -5 White Women +2 Black Men +4 Black Women +4 Latino Men +3 Latino Women +3 Other +5

        https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...xit-polls.html
        https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...president.html
        https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/...lls-2016-2020/

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        • Originally posted by Grasps View Post

          yea my math was wrong. SURPRISE? LOL.. but if Wisconsin swings in Trumps favor he'd win and last I check he was only like 20k votes from Biden.
          State Trump Lead Remaining Votes (est) % of Remaining Needed Trending
          Arizona -47,052 309,034 42.4% Biden
          Georgia 1,709 9,015 59.5% Biden
          North Carolina 76,737 190,621 70.1% Trump
          Nevada -11,438 146,757 46.1% Biden
          Pennsylvania 18,229 275,348 53.3% Biden
          Biden has this thing won. It's just a matter of time now.

          EDIT: Biden now leads in Georgia. If this holds, Trump has no path to victory even if he won every single other state. He could only tie it at 269-269.
          Last edited by Exalt; 11-06-2020, 05:28 AM.

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          • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0

            Donald will win, don't worry. What a mess this election is.

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            • Give it up Hellrazor.. ur boy lost.. all trump supporters are getting is FOUR MORE TEARS!

              You would need to have a successful coup in order to keep power at this stage and I know Trump is about to try but I seriously doubt it will happen. 4 million popular votes more and electoral lead is met now for a Biden win.

              He isn't my fav politician by far but you can't just overturn a USA election because Trump whines and screams foul. Proof will need to be shown and this is NOT an election like Bush vs Gore. Too many states swinging blue.
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              • Biden just took the lead in Pennsylvania. The race is effectively over. That's officially 270 for Biden when the count is done with only PA. All the rest of the states are just padding that Trump wont be able to overcome through legal challenges.

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                • Originally posted by Exalt View Post
                  As a side note, I think anyone that shows up to a protest with weapons, especially firearms, means that protest is now violent. Peaceful protests don't require guns. These people should be arrested, but they will not be, because the police are on their side politically. That's bad news for everyone in the grand scheme of things. That's how you creep closer to George Orwell's 1984 scenario.
                  Interesting take. Let me enlighten you though -- people who show up to "peaceful protests" while openly carrying firearms are doing so in a completely legal fashion in accordance with their state law. You can scream that they should be arrested all you want; when it comes down to it, it's the law that the police can enforce. No matter how many libtards shriek for people to be arrested for this or that, the police are confined to enforcing written law. That doesn't mean that it's morally right for these people to be carrying guns at their protest. It means that facts (the law) unfortunately don't care about your feelings. If it was illegal to open carry the weapons they are, the police would arrest them in a heartbeat. They would be invalidating their existence to let it happen under their nose. For all of the intelligence you have, a basic grasp of law evades you, unfortunately.
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                  • Originally posted by Voth View Post

                    Interesting take. Let me enlighten you though -- people who show up to "peaceful protests" while openly carrying firearms are doing so in a completely legal fashion in accordance with their state law. You can scream that they should be arrested all you want; when it comes down to it, it's the law that the police can enforce. No matter how many libtards shriek for people to be arrested for this or that, the police are confined to enforcing written law. That doesn't mean that it's morally right for these people to be carrying guns at their protest. It means that facts (the law) unfortunately don't care about your feelings. If it was illegal to open carry the weapons they are, the police would arrest them in a heartbeat. They would be invalidating their existence to let it happen under their nose. For all of the intelligence you have, a basic grasp of law evades you, unfortunately.
                    Awww... little salty today? Tissue?

                    Armed protestors were outside government buildings trying to stop votes from being counted during the presidential election. Every single one of them should be in jail. Actually, some have been arrested, but not all. That shit needs to be ended immediately. Peaceful protests do not require weapons, and when the goal is to infringe on the rights of others by taking away their votes, that is 100% illegal.

                    Facts dont care about your feelings snowflake. You cannot claim the right to carry a firearm overrides the right to vote.

                    Also, police have the right to disperse any protesters for any reason, especially if it gets violent or if it is done without a permit. Those people were trying to intimidate counters and suppress votes. They should have been dispersed. If they were black, do you think the police would just stand back and stand by?

                    Last edited by Exalt; 11-06-2020, 01:32 PM.

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                    • Originally posted by Exalt View Post

                      Awww... little salty today? Tissue?

                      Armed protestors were outside government buildings trying to stop votes from being counted during the presidential election. Every single one of them should be in jail. Actually, some have been arrested, but not all. That shit needs to be ended immediately. Peaceful protests do not require weapons, and when the goal is to infringe on the rights of others by taking away their votes, that is 100% illegal.

                      Facts dont care about your feelings snowflake. You cannot claim the right to carry a firearm overrides the right to vote.

                      Also, police have the right to disperse any protesters for any reason, especially if it gets violent or if it is done without a permit. Those people were trying to intimidate counters and suppress votes. They should have been dispersed. If they were black, do you think the police would just stand back and stand by?
                      In jail? On what charge(s)? Half of these shithole cities release real criminals with an appearance ticket to (hopefully) appear in court at a later date. Did you know that in my great state you could break into my house while me and my entire family sleep in our beds and even if caught red handed by police inside my house, you will not go to jail? You'll be fingerprinted and photographed and back out on the street within an hour or two. Did you know that it has nothing to do with what police want to do? Most police officers want to throw scum like that in the deepest and darkest hole imaginable - however libtard lawmakers tie the hands of those terrible men in blue.

                      Care to take your Google law degree out and mention a single violation of the Penal Law in the state in question that they can have handcuffs put on them for? I'm guessing you are some combination of unable and unqualified to make up the grounds for that arrest. This is not meant to defend what they are doing - it's only meant to point out that for all of your intelligence, you are woefully ignorant of reality. Much like a large percentage of the population. You are certainly correct that we have an education problem in our country - and it begins with people like you.

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                      • Tbh I'd carry a weapon to protest myself. I have no interest in getting beat to death by an angry mob. No thanks. I'll gladly pack my 40. cal but truly, I'd never go to a protest lol If I did, I am going to exercise my constitutional right to protect myself and my loved ones.

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                        • Originally posted by Grasps View Post

                          Tbh I'd carry a weapon to protest myself. I have no interest in getting beat to death by an angry mob. No thanks. I'll gladly pack my 40. cal but truly, I'd never go to a protest lol If I did, I am going to exercise my constitutional right to protect myself and my loved ones.
                          I wish you would have shown a non right wing channel that only shows left wing violence. Right wingers have been beating people too and shooting people to death, , ramming cars into crowds killing people , beating people with bats, macing people with bear spray and shooting paint ball guns at peaceful folks. Both sides are to blame for the violence but this is a one sided hit piece video because she says Trump supporters don't do these type things. Hate this one sided news. Sick of both sides cherry picking to continue the divisiveness in this country.

                          Hopefully us Americans can calm down and start to work together. Trump purposely incited people on both sides and I truly hope Biden's tone is a more calming influence for the country.

                          Edit* lol saw the rest of video.. This right wing australian channel in the end basically pushes "fighting" saying there is a war being waged against them and it is time to for the right leaners to stand up and fight. She says taking a knee is unacceptable and just submission. (taking a knee to me is the peaceful way to protest) sigh.. This is what I'm talking about. The right is just as bad.. perhaps even more radical. They been talking about civil war and stuff and backing it up with armed militias.. and misconstruing the defund movement and BLM's legitimate concerns. Now as a result left wing militias forming.. This is a bad tit for tat cycle we have to break in the entire world
                          Last edited by Jessup; 11-06-2020, 03:47 PM.
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                          • In my country, the most on the right wing that it is possible to be is a monarchist, the most on the left wing that it is possible to be is an anarchist. These two political poles are the only ones which do not have any political party, only a few groups which do not take part in the elections. Everything in between is represented. The two poles represented are the extreme left (internationalists) and the extreme right (fascists). During the last presidential election, five almost equal forces played their chances. The radical left (communists), the moderate left (progressists), the center (liberals), the moderate right (conservatives) and the radical right (nationalists). Since my country is a republic, there have almost always been only two real contenders, first the traditional left (socialists) versus the traditional right (sovereignists), then these two camps have become moderate over time.

                            I don't know the history of the USA, but in recent decades there has always been a duel between progressives and conservatives, as was the case in France before the last election. The reason for the implosion of this system in France is that, the candidate that the influential people absolutely wanted at the head of the country, was at the head of a newly founded liberal party, which converted the more centrist peoples among the moderate left and right parties, thanks to the media power which attacked the two parties, and this had the consequence of pushing the more traditional among the moderates towards the radical parties, for lack of large traditional parties.

                            The situation in the US is very different, but it is reasonable to imagine that it is possible that the two big party system also implodes in the future, through a different scenario, because according to my analysis, the radical left forces kidnapped the Democratic Party, and Trump single-handedly radicalized the Republican Party. As a result it created divisions within both sides, among the people. I see Trump as a sovereignist, the old-fashioned right, with a nationalist tendency. While much like Commodo, I see Biden as a conservative-inclined liberal, who just follows the communist policies that influential people tell him to pursue.

                            Anyway, I just wanted to post a photo to let people here know what these masked anarchists who victimize the population look like, while making an effort to participate in the discussions going on in this thread, which really doesn't inspire me, hence the off-topic. I have tried to explain this analysis with as little bias as possible.

                            Regarding fraud in the USA, from a very biased point of view this time, I laugh at this country, there is a lot of electoral fraud in France but it is never such a fiasco. Trump's public interventions will be interesting to follow. But I won't laugh for long, because seeing the result, influential people in France want to reintroduce mail voting, which was banned as considered the worst means of voting from a fraud point of view, a long time ago, but which could protect us from the terrible coronavirus now.

                            Lastly, I think there is something to be understood by looking at this photo, it should be noted that many are transexual/pansexual/other weird sexual things, and all of these people are the leftmost of the left. Without taking into account the ugliness of some, I find that a good chunk of them seem to be really screwy, and from my analysis, many of them are attracted by chaos out of perversion and/or self-loathing. Also note that there are many many more, this is only a small overview. Some much more impressive ones are unfortunately not part of this photo, but the search for "antifa mugshot" on Twitter offers a lot of interesting results.

                            These people want to destabilize Portland, and more, on the pretext that an african was killed by a european policeman, or according to the great Jessup, respond to the violence of the right, do you believe it? There are people who refuses to face the truth. For some cretins, just to say that people like Soros have a huge influence is conspiracy theory.


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                            • I think you hit on some good points ronaldinho. The majority of the actual left are not anarchists or antifa, and the majority on the right are not fascists or terrorists. Both types use any excuse they can to destabilize things. They hijack peaceful protests and movements to create chaos and violence. It's been well known for a long time.

                              The thing is, at this very moment, the right wing fascist/terrorist types are being bolstered by a lame duck president who is emotionally incapable of conceding gracefully. He will do and say anything he can to keep power, and many of his followers are basically in a cult of personality with him to the point where they believe everything he says. All proven lies are mentally twisted into something else to make it true to them. All evidence against him is considered fake, while anything that might seemingly support his cause is considered real.

                              In America, volunteers count votes. Everything is on video 24/7 and independent poll watcher are there all the time too. These crazies riled up by Trump are now sending death threats to them. Theres a report of one counter who threw a paper away in the trash on video, and now he is in hiding due to threats against him and his family. He threw away an instruction page. It was not a ballot. These idiots are trying to destroy America's fundamental systems because their leader is a sore loser. They claim mail in ballots are fraud only when it goes against them, while also working to destroy the post office from the inside. They packed the highest court in the nation 30 days before the election to try to steal it through biased legal means because they knew they would likely lose in a fair election. These things all correlate.

                              What I'm most disappointed about are seemingly intelligent people like Voth supporting this kind of thing. It's as if theyve never taken a history class in their lives. Trump's actions are right from the two bit dictator's playbook. The only positive is that the military will absolutely not back up Trump, so no matter how much the right wing crazies scream and cry, they cant pull off a coup using force. They can only try using the court system, except that doesnt work without evidence that none of them have, because its bullshit.

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                              • https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...-no-concession

                                I really do think he's consumed by dementia, far worse than the cognitive decline of Biden. Trump might be committed to a mental institution in the end, because his former plan was to flee the country if he lost. I can tell you right now, the intelligence agencies absolutely do not want a former president in the hands of another power. This shit is unprecedented.

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