Election Thread #1 -real version (Let's see how long we can stay on topic)

[Pan]

My parents went to the polls at 7 o clock for pennsylvania the line right now is proximatley 3 hrs and the local news says that right now 3 to 1 leading towards Kerry but thats only 3% of the precents My parents wont get back to 10

Other news is I was listening and it said the provisionary ballots in Ohio might not be counted until 10 days after the election. :english:

[PaulOakenfold]

North Carolina is turning out to be a toss up. I'm watching MSNBC with Chris Mathews. Florida is about 1.8 mil to 1.6! WOA. Ohio is only a diferential of about 5k. Kerry is leading in ARKANSAS! PA looks like it's going towards Kerry, but it's way too close to call for all of those states I just mentioned. New Hampshire looks like it's going to Kerry, again too close to call.

[Vykromond]

CNN just doesn't learn its lesson. Significantly ahead of the AP, or any network with any sense whatsoever, they have just projected six more states for Bush. Granted, these states will vote for Bush, but I wish the assholes at CNN wouldn't do this 0% precinct reporting projection shit. Just to reiterate while trying to hold back my anger (and I'm just as pissed off about the retardation of projecting Kerry in Maine as I am about this, trust me), CNN reports Texas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Kansas, and Wyoming going to bush without a single vote count occurring. Because exit polls work, guys. They really do. ::

[Vykromond]

Update: the AP just went in on the midwest predictions as well. Make yourselves useful and count the goddamn ballots, guys.

[Vykromond]

If you guys are watching TV, you're getting more information than I am, but you're also getting more misinformation. Apparently, Kerry is winning Colorado, losing Wisconsin, and losing New Mexico. This sounds like a load of shit to me, but if CNN says it, it must be true!

[Vykromond]

A quick rant: the BBC really needs to get a better colour scheme for its vote page. "Exit poll/partial vote" is very similar to the "Democrat" graphical colour (dark blue vs. navy, for Christ's sake), and for a second there I thought the BBC had called Ohio for Kerry.

[Vykromond]

If you hear ANYTHING about Ohio, please disregard it. There haven't even been a million votes counted yet.

With 31% of precincts reported in Florida. Bush is holding a significant lead. He's actually up 12% so far, though I already talked about the county disparity in that vote. I hope we don't see a Florida call this soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of our more irresponsible projection sources started getting riled up in the next half-hour or so.

One of the interesting things I've caught on NPR is that the polarisation effect is even more ridiculous than previously shown in exit polls, which only had about 2% undecideds going into the three days before election day. Apparently, counties around the country are getting more and more stolidly into their party line. You can see the overall party pie graphics on the networks if you wish, but I don't think they tell the whole story since they don't really have a good way to handle new voters, just like most polls.

[Vykromond]

An interestingly close state whose story will be developing in the next hour or two is Michigan. This year there's been a surge of voting among Republicans in West Michigan, who typically don't bother to vote because of a perceived insurmountable Democratic dominance in the state, especially because of the large minority vote. These Republicans have actually kept Michigan, so far, to a 1-2 point Kerry lead, and CNN actually shows a Bush lead. Keep in mind that this is with 2% of precincts reporting in terms of vote count. The reason why I'm discussing it is because I heard it within the context of people actually watching the polls and discussing reportage, which is where the West Republican contingent made themselves known.

If Bush carries Michigan, it'll be a pretty big blow for Kennedy.

[PaulOakenfold]

75% of Floridians were called the day before to vote for a specific candidate.

59% of first time voters voted for Kerry, while 40% voted for Bush.


These are just random facts i'm typing on the Laptop as i watch msnbc.

[Vykromond]

Random statistic I just heard on NPR: Last-minute undecided voters are breaking 5:4 for Kerry. This is lower, for example, than electoral-vote.com's implied 2:1 break for any non-incumbent candidate. I'm pretty sure that site is still down; apparently it got attacked again.

[DoTheFandango]

CT put up Kerry by a whopping 88 votes.

[Vykromond]

Even after Puff Daddy, that old saw about new voters might bite Kerry in the ass after all: looks like only about 1 out of 10 voters in exit polls have been 18-24, just like in the Bush-Gore election. Face, this is pretty much all your fault. Previous statistic taken from NPR; I haven't confirmed it from another news source, but it's something to think about.

[Vykromond]

CNN has 164-112. BBC/AP (the BBC is just using the AP's statistics) is 172-112. The difference is Mississippi, which the BBC/AP have called for Bush despite only 4% of precincts reporting. Everyone who thinks Kerry is going to win Mississippi, raise your hands. Now cut them off. EDIT: CNN is on boat for Mississippi.

[Vykromond]

Sorry that I'm not covering the Senate and gubernatorial races around the country here, guys, but I don't have the time or energy. McCain got reelected, or something.

[Vykromond]

Speaking of FOX News, they're acting very cautiously in calling Bush states! ATM they only have him up 156-112, though it could be an Internet updating issue.

Looks like Minnesota's gonna be a squeaker. Bush is up around 270 votes with a bare minimum of precincts reporting.