Election Thread #1 -real version (Let's see how long we can stay on topic)

[Vykromond]

"Whopping margin" of White Protestants for Bush in Wisconsin, but young voters in the state are overwhelmingly for Kerry. As for who wins the state: who fucking knows?

[Vykromond]

A quick update on the popular vote, which I haven't really talked about on this thread yet because it doesn't really matter: Bush is up about 2m in most estimates at this point.

[Vykromond]

Recurring story: lines, lines, lines. Even in places where the outcome hasn't really been in question, lines have been pretty long, ranging from half an hour to an hour and a half. In the battleground states, many usual election observers have remarked that lines are the longest they've ever seen, in excess of two hours or more. Many poll lines in Ohio and Florida had to close late in order to allow people who were on line into the polling station.

However, fears of fraud have SO FAR appeared to be slightly overblown. Only relatively minor hitches have been reported in the voting process so far. Of course, the big shit has yet to go down, so this is just a tentative bit of optimism in a race that has most definitely been about anything but.

[Ilya]

chill the fuck out, dude

[Vykromond]

For some reason, I've always been pissed off by New Hampshire: what right have they to vote Republican in our part of town? NH went for Bush in 2000 by 7k votes.

So far, the votes have been coming in in favour of Kerry, but only by a nose. I've been paring down my predictions to three main sources: CNN, the BBC/AP, and NPR. I've also been taking information from ABC and Fox, and a bit of MSNBC, but most things that you're seeing on this thread are from my "big three," two of which I'm getting from the Internet and one of which I'm piping into my headphones.

In any case, the BBC/AP says 18% of precincts are reporting and Kerry leads by approximately 3,000 votes and 3%. CNN says 32% of precincts are reporting and Kerry leads by 6,000 votes and 3%. Way too early to call, definitely. It's possible that NH will be called for Kerry if it keeps swinging this way by 50-55%, but if/when you hear that call you shouldn't necessarily take it that seriously. NH will be an easy victory for nobody, and certainly not for Ralph Nader.

In terms of delays, apparently there are still some polls "open" (they're still letting voters who were on line in) in Ohio!

[Vykromond]

"Nevada will be decided by about 1,000 votes." EDIT: That was Nevada senator Harry Reid (D) in an interview just now.

Most of the South is done, except (obviously) Florida and, oddly enough, Arkansas. I'll update on Arkansas later when I care about it enough to discuss it.

[Vykromond]

Utah and Montana have both been projected for Bush at this point, either by CNN or by BBC/AP or both.

[Vykromond]

Turnout, as you guys might have guessed for yourselves, has been very very high for the election. Officials across the country indicate that record turnouts have been reported across the nation, including in states that were solidly in one camp or the other.

[Vykromond]

With 21% of precincts reporting in Missouri, the BBC/AP, CNN, ABC, and FOX are all calling it for Bush. I'm seeing it as a 4-point split, but there's a very strong consensus on this so I'm not going to contest anything.

[Vykromond]

Just a clarification on why Missouri has been called for Bush: Most of Kerry's votes have come from the city of St. Louis and its surrounding county; that's actually the only county he's leading in so far. The general assumption is that once all the votes from that area are counted, Kerry is going to be at a general disadvantage in the other regions of rural Missouri. Thus, since he's losing by approximately a 4-point split already, with St. Louis already reporting, he's not going to gain enough ground to overtake Bush in the state.

The "score" right now is approximately 195-112 in favour of Bush. All the networks I've been watching are in agreement about this, though the placement of the fourth Maine elector differs depending on network.

[Vykromond]

Arkansas, at long last, is joining its Southern compatriots in a vote for Bush, though the split is 4-6 points depending on who you ask.

[Vykromond]

Just a recap for the obvious-things-challenged: We're talking about Wisconsin. We're talking about Minnesota. We're talking about Iowa. We're talking about Michigan. I'm going to tell you now that Ohio and Florida will not conclusively decide their elections until past 1 am tonight, and it's very possible that their votes will stretch off into the sunset.

[Vykromond]

POLLS IN OHIO ARE STILL OPEN AFTER BEING CLOSED FOR THREE HOURS.

As for Pennsylvania, something interesting is happening in this state: with an agreed 46% of precincts reporting, Kerry has a 59-41% lead. I don't know to what extent Republican counties are underrepresented in this tally, but that's a pretty dramatic fucking lead!

[Vykromond]

The margin in New Hampshire is down to hundreds, with about half of available precincts reporting. I'm still kind of holding a random bias against the state, here, but it sure is turning out to be a battleground.

[Vykromond]

Ohio has a Bush lead of 100,000 (four to five percent) with 35% of precincts reporting.