TWLB Semi-finals Plade vs. Fire Appeal

[skyforger]

question for rab: how did you calculate your 99% winning position

[Rab]

Lastly, with 30 seconds left on the timer and with Fire's cram already showing signs of breaking down, the probability of Plade winning was definitely higher than 0.01%. Plus, stating Plade had a 99.9% chance of losing (even if this number is exaggerated), still implies a 0.01% chance that Plade could have won. Therefore, you cannot keep saying "Fire had the game won before the 'cheat' jav bomb", just because the odds were not in Plade's favor at that point in the game. Remember, when the score was 13-9 or worse, it was exceedingly unlikely that Fire would comeback at all that game, and yet Fire still did come back, so to exclude the possibility of a non-glitch-related event occurring for Plade to win them the game is unfair and biased. Regardless, in being realistic, all of these "odds" are arbitrary and unquantifiable.

The odds of coming back from 13-9 were something like 15% though. Yes we did an unlikely thing.
Then we got ourselves in a position of 99% winning.
Plade had about a 1% of winning. That's a 15x less likely thing to happen than our comeback.
Of course the odds are arbitrary, but you've played enough basing to know it's a fair illustration of the situation.

[skyforger]

There's a reason that if you try to ship change when your dead in a TWBD it doesn't work, it's not a mechanic in this game

Question for the league op: 1. what is the reason this feature is removed from TWBD but works in TWLB?

[Rab]

Even if the decision-maker believes dreamwin, there's no way "victory by invisible jav" can be allowed to stand.

I'd be inclined to believe you dreamwin if this was some other game - because you do use "last-minute jav" a lot. But for me it's too much of a coincidence that the invisible jav is used at such a critical moment. Plus the video of you using it before shows you knew about it.

Multiple people have said it's a known bug, but it wasn't known to me, never in my 20 years of basing have I seen an invisible jav. That makes it much worse than a jupe, which everyone knows about, and which would at least be worthy of a replay.

[Pressure]

We won that game. We made a huge comeback in the series, outplayed them, and earned that cram, which had 5 spiders vs. their 2.

A cheater on Plade couldn't accept the L so he cheated, bypassed the death timer, then used an Invisible Jav hack to get a 6fer.

Your sharks can't save reps or rep if the jav never attaches and never appears on screen.

The game was won from that position, what happened afterwards is fucking irrelevant.

They cheated to break a cram we earned by turning Mikkiz into a pinata all game and making him go 35-11.

If every time you're about to win a game, an invisible fucking jav 6fers your cram, you're going to statistically lose a few of those battles.

If Plade gets a replay, Dreamwin wins. He turns a 99.9% loss probability while we're holding cram to a 50% win/loss probability in a full replay. He gets rewarded for cheating.

Also, all these stupid fucking arguments about "something wrong happened in the past and there was no consequence" are ridiculous. If a police officer got away with brutally killing a minority in the past, that means we shouldn't get justice for black people being murdered by the police today?

I don't care about Merce using CE to win TWLJ in season 8. We have fucking body cameras now, and there's 1080p high def recordings of all major TWL games to scrutinize cheating.

It's amazing how badly you have to hate us personally to actually defend AN INVISIBLE FUCKING JAV BYPASSING DEATH TIMER AND 6FERING A FULL CRAM.

Claus, no one (including non-Plade, non-Fire members) feels good about the current situation. It is fair to be angry, but to throw this multi-day tantrum and attempt to slander an entire TWLB season and rewrite history is silly. Everyone who matters saw what happened. There are documented stats and high-quality footage for us to continue to review the situation and form our own opinion. Still, none of us know the best decision moving forward yet.

We don't need Fire members to keep repeating their interpretation of what happened. It would be more mature of you all to just wait for the ruling by staff. We all know you are angry and we all know that there is an appeal being reviewed. You and your teammates have both said on multiple occasions that, on paper, the Fire vs. Plade series could have gone either way and that both teams would make great finalists. Whoever it is decided will advance to finals will still provide a legitimate and competitive TWLB finals opponent to Gun. For your own well-being, you need to accept the fact that the appeal may or may not not go in Fire's favor. If you and your team do not get your way, it does not mean an entire season is illegitimate or deserving of an asterisk. We all worked hard to get here, and while I feel your pain, you and your teammates do not (and should not) have control over the outcome of this situation, no matter how much louder you and your teammates screams on forums or in game.

I will tell you as a confirmed TWLB finalist that, if all stands as it does currently, it would feel more "weird" having Plade forfeit and playing against Fire in finals. There are definitely nuances that I am not considering that need to be teased apart by those making the final decision, but as it stands, Plade did reach 15:00 minutes first and won the match. Whether the win was fair and square or dirty or whether Fire had a better chance of winning without the jav bomb is irrelevant to how I "feel" about playing Fire in finals, given what we currently know. I will accept any and all decisions made by staff, since I think both Fire and Plade would be more than worthy finals opponents, but if the appeal is that "Plade must forfeit", I do not think this is a reasonable outcome that everyone will feel good about. Replaying R3 or the entire Bo3 may be the only reasonable outcome that makes everyone content, but unfortunately the appeal was hastily drafted and published out of immediate, intense post-game emotions, and its demands are simply too harsh, at least from a general perspective.

Lastly, with 30 seconds left on the timer and with Fire's cram already showing signs of breaking down, the probability of Plade winning was definitely higher than 0.01%. Plus, stating Plade had a 99.9% chance of losing (even if this number is exaggerated), still implies a 0.01% chance that Plade could have won. Therefore, you cannot keep saying "Fire had the game won before the 'cheat' jav bomb", just because the odds were not in Plade's favor at that point in the game. Remember, when the score was 13-9 or worse, it was exceedingly unlikely that Fire would comeback at all that game, and yet Fire still did come back, so to exclude the possibility of a non-glitch-related event occurring for Plade to win them the game is unfair and biased. Regardless, in being realistic, all of these "odds" are arbitrary and unquantifiable.

Bottom line here is (and I am not trying to taunt you or instigate), as unfair and as hard as it is to accept, until it is decided objectively by a third party, Plade won. That is indisputable, since all you have to do to see this is refer to twl.trenchwars.com or to the video recording. Once we have an official ruling, you can begin your smear campaigns and further complaining as you feel it necessary, but until then let's tone it down a tad.

[zidane]

Plade has no comment on the fact that dreamwin was invisible and 6fer'd our team, nothing wrong with that apparently lol... lets pretend it didn't happen. It's part of the game to be an invisible jav and it's also standard to have 3 lives in a 5 second time span when your death timer is 5 seconds. There's a reason that if you try to ship change when your dead in a TWBD it doesn't work, it's not a mechanic in this game

Dreamwin, you don't need to placate to these "normal human beings on fire" we all think you cheated. you can ask anyone on the squad, stop pretending anyone thinks otherwise

[Dreamwin]

I've had enough with your BS about my integrity and loudly calling me a cheater. Some people might actually mistake that I have actually cheated and I dont my name associated in such thing. I did something that I have done pretty much every single time in 10 years I have capped a basing squad and been losing on a last minute -> Change myself to jav. No one has ever had a problem with it until now that certain group of people lose in a big game. Which makes me wonder has the new server and it's lag issues caused it just like rep ignores are normal nowadays? (Personal note: I dont macro anything as ogron claimed somewhere in page 47, I type the shit and never have I thought about timing other than "be fast as possible because we only have seconds to spare before enemy team wins") Some people has expressed that they saw a jav, some didnt and obviously the person who was recording didn't see me in his screen. This can be easily juxtaposed to lag which happens all the time, say a warbird game at 49-49 and someone eating a bullet or spiking slightly to make the winning move.

It is not like I have used cheat engine, some personal dwtrain.exe, forbidden resolution or induced lag ever. Those things can be considered cheating and I should stay the fuck out of that association. I changed myself to jav like I have done for 10 years and got a lucky shot through -> Team continued to win last FR and won the game.

Integrity... Do not fucking talk to me about integrity. During the last 5 years I have been fucked by Thunder core in appeals or other midseason rule adjustments around 80% of the leagues I have capped. I have not once in my life won an appeal versus a team that has Thunder core player in it. Me and my teams have suffered from most ridiculous appeals due to corrupt decision-making orchestrated by the Thunder core. ...Integrity... You have absolutely no problem beating ones C-line in finals under very shady circumstances where 2 key players suddendly start lagging after your team is losing the game and rubbing it to losing team's face afterwards like you are the greatest of them all. Do not fucking talk to me about integrity because you have NONE.

I am starting to understand why you wanted to get rid of double-elimination. It's because you wanted to be the only team to have that option.


PS. This is not meant to all Fire members. I know there are some normal human beings out there and they know who they are themselves.

[MHz]

The time for writing rules is BEFORE not after a game. There are no rules which forbid !shipchanging during spawn time. Dreamwin did nothing illegal. That's why it didn't even occur to me to appeal when the same thing happened to my TWDTB team.

Fire wanted Plade to telepathically and pre-emptively handicap themselves. They wanted dreamwin to type his !shipchange command slower. Why? On what basis should we go easy on you?

Fire couldn't win within the rules, so they're now inventing new rules to fit the quirks and infrastructure of the game. They're having their rules a la carte.

It's kinda pathetic.

[Rasaq]

Waiting for MSNBC to steer the narrative showing a video sent to them by 2paczonymous of Fire players in their chat telling each another to be ready for that pathetic, commonly used, last-ditch effort of a ship change to break cram.

[ogron]

lol imagine if I went 26-9 in Round 2 and 35-11 in Round 3 in terr like Mikkiz did, and when Fire was about to lose, unable to bear losing fairly, Zidane bypassed his death timer and used the same hack he did 2-3 months ago in the exact same way to produce an Invisible Jav that 6fer'd Plade's cram and cheated them out of the finals.

there would be 500 posts on forums about how I got out-terred and suck and how Zidane is the biggest cheater in this game and we should all be banned and another 7 threads about #FreePlade.

that's a fucking fact.

forums are not representative of this zone, every time an issue arises every player we've spent the last 10 years beating or shit-talking comes out of the woodwork to take the opposite side.

this thread is filled with bitter forum warriors and dice retirees threatened by the fact Thunder's core has reached 6 straight TWLB finals and not reaching our 7th benefits them. Everyone watching that game knows we had a 99% chance of winning from that cram position and was a win.

the sad reality is these people would rather see a blatant cheater win than Thunder players advance.

that's the bottom line.

if we were on the opposite side, the same people posting in this thread would be talking about how Plade got fucked.

[skyforger]

this is way too tl:dr do i get it right

so zidane used some glitch/feature and it was all good in the past because he is leasgue op or something. now dreamwin used the same glitch/feature against said zidane and ogron and they are saying ban dreamwin. mmkey

[Beast]

if you guys like drama so much, perhaps join one of our many hosted trenchwars mafia games.

[Singer]

I've won a decent career job with a salary at 90K a year, got myself a loving wife, a nice home, a car, traveled around the world.. I'm real happy about what I've accomplished instead of wasting my time trying to get TWL medals so that zidane can be impressed by my epic subspace skills

I guess I might have won a few more titles if I stuck around with some epic nerds that dream about subspace every night but I always preferred playing in squads like Pirates or Rapid or Plade, who are filled with people that are actually fun to be with in the moment, being surrounded with nice personalities on the daily beats having to be with hormonic raging tryhards that still gets mad over this game in their 30s.. if somehow you think sticking around with this kind of crowd makes it all worth it because at the end of the day you get a little medal that's aight man, some people just don't grow up sometimes

goodnight, please have more drama for me tomorrow, I love it, thanks

[2pac]

zidane mad he got his asshole tore up lol DW got that big dick status

[zidane]

I find it amusing that someone who hasn't won anything in like 20 years has time to post in TWL appeals threads lol, please continue with photos and stuff though it's really funny