TW Mafia: Still Worthy

[Exalt]

I'm well aware of the reasoning you use but it simply is not always the best alternative when town is divided evenly which this sure looks like to me. Do we really want to lynch our busdriver? Hope the ixt train is over now.

What makes you think town is divided evenly? DId you forget that scum are in this game? The two wagons are IXT and Halp, and Halp was leading until Backwards refused to allow that for absolutely no good reason. IXT then claimed, which is something Halp hasn't and won't ever do for reasons you'll figure out after he flips scum, yet you think it's an even split for IXT to remain a wagon?

Let me ask you something. What has Halp done all game? Has he done anything useful for town? Has he tried to do anything to lynch scum this entire game before he became a leading wagon for all of about 5 seconds? Why is it that players are so afraid to have Halp get lynched, when he has done absolutely nothing helpful for town, and by the looks of things, never intends to any any point in this game? Does that look like a great townie player to you?

[Exalt]

I def have my eye on ixt now but think a lynch on him tonight should be out of the question.

So why are you not voting Halp then?

[Halp]

Wanting a tie vote on Day 1 is literally a scum move. There is no two ways around it. Also, the more you post, the more I think you're scum buddies with Halp, whose fucking obvious scum. The fact that you can't see any of this stuff means you're either completely oblivious, or you are scum. Which one is it?

I went back and found an old post I sent to Paul from another game where he wanted a No Lynch on Day 1 I wrote it to show him that a No Lynch is always the wrong move for town on Day 1.. He was scum that game, FYI. Here's the post. I'd like you to respond to it:


"Let's pretend its a 9 person game with 7 town, 2 scum. Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but mislynch someone everyday after. Let's also assume scum NK successfully each night.

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, 2 scum + No Lynch = 0% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum (8 players left, divided by 2 scum = 25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum (6 players left, divided by 2 scum = 33% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 33%.

Now let's say town lynch Day 1 instead:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, divided by 2 scum = 22% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum (7 players left, divided by 2 scum = 28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum (5 players left, divided by 2 scum = 40% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 40%.


As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone Day 1.

Other reasons why No Lynching is always bad outside of a Mislynch & Lose scenario:

1. Lynching can kill scum. Scum kills do not kill scum. More lynching = more scum deaths. Not lynching = less scum deaths.

2. If you don't lynch someone Day 1, you cannot analyze the wagons Day 2. Wagons/Lynches and where people vote during a lynch give information necessary to scum hunting. No Lynches give zero information in that regard while giving scum a free kill at night. You essentially lose a townie for zero gain.

3. The only reason I can think of for anyone to want a Day 1 No Lynch, aside from their faulty math, is because they generally think something like "the Cop will eventually save us, and the game doesn't even start until like Day 3 when they find a guilty." Sure, that may happen, but you're placing blind trust on a random person who may or may not be good at being the Cop. Also, what if that Cop gets NK'd immediately Night 1 while you No Lynched and placed the entire game on the hopes that they save the town instead? Also, even with a mislynch, one less player for the Cop to potentially investigate means a higher % chance for them to correctly investigate scum.

4. Generally speaking, night play always favors scum. They always get to night kill, and they usually have great roles such as roleblocker, godfather, etc that help keep them safe from town night actions. Town also tends to have power roles that can hurt town, such as a dumb vigilante that kills only townies, insane/skitzo cops giving false positives, busdrivers that screw up results, millers, paranoid gun owners killing town PRs, etc. Scum almost never have PRs with drawbacks like that.

5. All town night actions are essentially completely blind, no different from Day 1 lynches except that there's no actual dialogue to help other townies make good decisions or reign in dumb townies from making bad ones.

6. Without a Day 1 lynch giving any information, and assuming a Town PR like the Cop doesn't claim, the Day 2 lynch after a Day 1 No Lynch is just as random and blind as a Day 1 lynch, with near zero differences except one less townie and fewer allowed mislynches before game over.

7. A Day 1 mislynch at the very least allows town to move past specific reads they had from the start of the game, because they are proven right or wrong based on what their Day 1 lynch flips. It allows the game to move past the initial phase of the game. A Day 1 No Lynch just makes town repeat the exact same arguments and exact same reads they had on Day 1 with little to no change, meaning the Day 2 lynch will likely be the same person who would've otherwise been lynched Day 1.

I'm sure I can think of more reasons, but that's my stance on the issue, and it's pretty strong. I'll always say a Day 1 No Lynch is a terrible move for town to make in nearly every situation. There is a time and a place for No Lynches, but it's almost never on Day 1."

The problem with your math is that it doesn't include the high probability of a d1 mislynch due to scum factions starting the game with the knowledge of who is town and who is not. It's much easier for a mafia of 3 people to manipulate a clueless town of 7. I'm getting scum vibes from at least 5 people in this game so far, which is impossible, so I might be right about 1-2 of them. I think IXT is a mafia busdriver. I think he claimed busdriver as an impulse, thinking he can verify his role with night actions and gain town cred. Using Exalt logic "there's no other way of thinking except my own best and most awesome way of great thinking" claiming busdriver if you are actually a town busdriver is a terrible, terrible move for a whole host of reasons. If you are a mafia busdriver, it's not as bad of a move. I'd say we can wait for someone to investigate him, but that won't work if we lynch a cop on D1 or the mafia blocks/kills/busdrives/whatevers the other 5-6? unclaimed townies on N1. You need to stop with your "I-thought-of-it-so-it-must-be-right" human centipede of confirmation bias automatic ego feeding style of thinking, and try being objective. The arguments you make might win a fight with a drunk girlfriend, but they're useless here, and it's frustrating as usual.

[Jessup]

I just don't get a major scum vibe from him like you do. He defended my when I was on the block, seems somewhat concerned at times about town and is also newly returning to the game. This wild hyena climate tends to make people clam up. All these factors are why I'm not voting halp.

[Halp]

Halp has done absolutely nothing all game, never will, and has not claimed.

You keep saying i've done nothing "all game".. it's D1 dude.. It was the end of the month at work and busy af, I had no time to read 30 pages of garbage. Me not agreeing with you doesn't make me scum, and me not defending myself against your bullshit doesn't make me scum. I don't want to be involved in derailing the conversation just because you need male attention and validation. That being said, from reading the thread and purely on gauging people's reactions, I've gotten scum vibes from a few. Now I'm no psychic like you with an undefeated 100% scum hunting record, but I do alright.

[sdrawkcab]

Wanting a tie vote on Day 1 is literally a scum move. There is no two ways around it. Also, the more you post, the more I think you're scum buddies with Halp, whose fucking obvious scum. The fact that you can't see any of this stuff means you're either completely oblivious, or you are scum. Which one is it?

I went back and found an old post I sent to Paul from another game where he wanted a No Lynch on Day 1 I wrote it to show him that a No Lynch is always the wrong move for town on Day 1.. He was scum that game, FYI. Here's the post. I'd like you to respond to it:


"Let's pretend its a 9 person game with 7 town, 2 scum. Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but mislynch someone everyday after. Let's also assume scum NK successfully each night.

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, 2 scum + No Lynch = 0% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum (8 players left, divided by 2 scum = 25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum (6 players left, divided by 2 scum = 33% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 33%.

Now let's say town lynch Day 1 instead:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, divided by 2 scum = 22% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum (7 players left, divided by 2 scum = 28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum (5 players left, divided by 2 scum = 40% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 40%.


As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone Day 1.

Other reasons why No Lynching is always bad outside of a Mislynch & Lose scenario:

1. Lynching can kill scum. Scum kills do not kill scum. More lynching = more scum deaths. Not lynching = less scum deaths.

2. If you don't lynch someone Day 1, you cannot analyze the wagons Day 2. Wagons/Lynches and where people vote during a lynch give information necessary to scum hunting. No Lynches give zero information in that regard while giving scum a free kill at night. You essentially lose a townie for zero gain.

3. The only reason I can think of for anyone to want a Day 1 No Lynch, aside from their faulty math, is because they generally think something like "the Cop will eventually save us, and the game doesn't even start until like Day 3 when they find a guilty." Sure, that may happen, but you're placing blind trust on a random person who may or may not be good at being the Cop. Also, what if that Cop gets NK'd immediately Night 1 while you No Lynched and placed the entire game on the hopes that they save the town instead? Also, even with a mislynch, one less player for the Cop to potentially investigate means a higher % chance for them to correctly investigate scum.

4. Generally speaking, night play always favors scum. They always get to night kill, and they usually have great roles such as roleblocker, godfather, etc that help keep them safe from town night actions. Town also tends to have power roles that can hurt town, such as a dumb vigilante that kills only townies, insane/skitzo cops giving false positives, busdrivers that screw up results, millers, paranoid gun owners killing town PRs, etc. Scum almost never have PRs with drawbacks like that.

5. All town night actions are essentially completely blind, no different from Day 1 lynches except that there's no actual dialogue to help other townies make good decisions or reign in dumb townies from making bad ones.

6. Without a Day 1 lynch giving any information, and assuming a Town PR like the Cop doesn't claim, the Day 2 lynch after a Day 1 No Lynch is just as random and blind as a Day 1 lynch, with near zero differences except one less townie and fewer allowed mislynches before game over.

7. A Day 1 mislynch at the very least allows town to move past specific reads they had from the start of the game, because they are proven right or wrong based on what their Day 1 lynch flips. It allows the game to move past the initial phase of the game. A Day 1 No Lynch just makes town repeat the exact same arguments and exact same reads they had on Day 1 with little to no change, meaning the Day 2 lynch will likely be the same person who would've otherwise been lynched Day 1.

I'm sure I can think of more reasons, but that's my stance on the issue, and it's pretty strong. I'll always say a Day 1 No Lynch is a terrible move for town to make in nearly every situation. There is a time and a place for No Lynches, but it's almost never on Day 1."

This might all make sense if this game was complete random fucking chance but it is not. This game is about information, and on D1 town is at an information disadvantage. Best way to start the process of changing the tide of information is with night actions. You try to argue against this with your studiously enumerated points which all boil down to you not trusting your team at all and wanting to brute force the whole game yourself. All well and good, but if you look at the cost of your d1 lynch right now, in practice, it is being paid for with D1 role claims. If these guys all claiming right now really are town, and then as you point out we are most likely also LYNCHING a townie, then we will not only have lost the lynched townie but identified several power roles to scum... (oh wait but they are unimportant ones! DOES NOT MATTER. They know the claimed three people who are not the cop, they know the 2 or 3 scum, which narrows who IS the cop down)

TBH I do not give a shit if we tie at this point, people are just posting their roles in the thread for no reason now and others pushing for more of the same I hope I take the NK for town to not read another 110 pages of this.

[ixt]

@ixt: Can you give a full claim, rather than just say busdriver? If you really are town, then why wouldn't you give the entire role? I've never heard of Captain America, Avengers Busdriver before, so an explaination would be helpful. I guess Dr Strange could make sense with his portals, but you put in so little effort that frankly, you'll be completely at fault if you do get lynched.

If it's a scum wagon on you, which I'm pretty damn certain it is considering I think Halp is scum and is your counter-wagon, then you're causing this yourself. Halp won't claim ever, because he's obvious scum whose really bad at it, but you already claimed, so there's no reason not to give the full claim. Let those who stay on your wagon even after a full-claim try to talk their way out of it when Halp has done absolutely nothing all game, never will, and has not claimed. They won't be able to, so this game will be pretty damn easy to wrap up. You need to play ball though if you really are town, or scum have an excuse to stay on you.

ok...what are u looking for in your definition of a full claim? Dr strange, busdriver ability to interchange two people of a kill or some action hits someone it swings to the other person I "grouped" typical busdriver mechanic

[ixt]

Lmao just to bring up a major point chances are gripe is guaranteed scum at this point. At the timestamp where I claimed u were still under the tone of "of oh why did u role claim u dumb townie" and now changes abruptly to a definitive accusation of mafia bus driver. Seems to me he knows EXACTLY who the townies and scum members are, if u can make that DEFINITIVE of an accusation and such a swap in tone.

[ixt]

i have hatred for both voth and suspicion on gripe so im waiting on another VC to see how i will proceed with this

[Halp]

Lmao just to bring up a major point chances are gripe is guaranteed scum at this point. At the timestamp where I claimed u were still under the tone of "of oh why did u role claim u dumb townie" and now changes abruptly to a definitive accusation of mafia bus driver. Seems to me he knows EXACTLY who the townies and scum members are, if u can make that DEFINITIVE of an accusation and such a swap in tone.

Because it was a dumb move. There was no reason for you to claim. My initial reaction was "wow you idiot". Upon further deliberation, and giving you the benefit of the doubt in assuming you're not an idiot, the only thing that makes sense is that your roleclaim benefits you in some way, and that could only be the case if you're a mafia busdriver with a win condition that is not my win condition. So you're either a real dumb townie with a dry chalky turd where your brain should be, or you're a mafia bus driver making a play at town cred with a bold D1 roleclaim. You choose.

[Halp]

I'm also of the opinion that IF we're going to risk sacrificing a townie with a D1 lynch, bus driver is a great choice. The rest of the game will go much more smoothly without that dumpster fire of a role.

So...

Best case we lynch a mafia bus driver.

Worst case we lynch a townie bus driver, save ourselves the headache of dealing with the chaos of that role (especially in the hands of a certain player), and we get to analyze all of the votes and commentary surrounding him on D1, which has been substantial.

If anyone is actually interested in making logical decisions to win this game, rather than lynching everyone who disagrees with you, ask yourself if I'm wrong.

Another more boring option is we make him promise to abstain until N3, because busing before that is just reckless and I don't trust that he has the experience or common sense to know that.

[ixt]

I'm also of the opinion that IF we're going to risk sacrificing a townie with a D1 lynch, bus driver is a great choice. The rest of the game will go much more smoothly without that dumpster fire of a role.

So...

Best case we lynch a mafia bus driver.

Worst case we lynch a townie bus driver, save ourselves the headache of dealing with the chaos of that role (especially in the hands of a certain player), and we get to analyze all of the votes and commentary surrounding him on D1, which has been substantial.

If anyone is actually interested in making logical decisions to win this game, rather than lynching everyone who disagrees with you, ask yourself if I'm wrong.

Another more boring option is we make him promise to abstain until N3, because busing before that is just reckless and I don't trust that he has the experience or common sense to know that.

oh now u want to control other people's roles? how about we give all 11 of the respective roles to u and u play yourself? jokes the thought also did run through my mind so im not going to say what i would do obviously.

[fiS]

Rofl, backwards madly trying to tie this and still thinking a tie is a great result after all these day 1 pages.
I'd be down to form a backwards bagon, but I'm afraid it might be too late because WillBy will probably change phases soon.
I say it right here and right now in your face: even lynching a townie is better than a no lynch. Does this make me scum?
It's the ONLY way that town gathers Information in day phases. You're scum if you don't want to understand how this helps town and keep denying the lynch.

So then, there was it, the full day 1 roleclaim by ixt. Tbh, I don't have the count at hand from that point, but I don't think it was uncalled for since (pretty sure) he was tied and chances weren't too bad that when WillBy changed phases, he'd by lynched imo. (unless backwards would have tied it again, rofl.)

I will keep my vote at Halp after this. I find the chances of a Mafia Busdriver unlikely (did we ever have a Mafia Busdriver here in TW Forums?) and at this point there is no reason to not assume that Dr. Strange and Busdriver doesn't belong together. Either ixt had this planned out on page 3 (or whatever, where he said he's Dr. Strange), because Dr Strange and Busdriver actually fit together quite well if you think about it - and ixt said he doesn't know the movies (go watch it!).
I personally hate busdrivers though, but I know WillBy often uses them, but this isn't a reason for me to lynch ixt - yes, even though apparently I have some sort of vendetta against ixt.

With all the vote hopping lately a new count would be great, I'll see if I can do it.

[fiS]

sdrawkcab
Really, take my example from the bad lynch on day 2 in the werewolf game. Day 2 was the first day lynching was an option. We had two wagons, mainly, Voth and Rodney by the end of the Phase. Both roleclaimed and Rodney was lynched. He was a Doctor (or whatever it was called). Day 3 looked bad, but by the end of day 3 a lot of the townies had figured out who the werewolves were, except for Jessup (and Paul, who went MIA). This wouldn't have happened if day 2 was a no-lynch.

[fiS]

Unofficial Vote Count:
Halp - 5 (Exalt, Voth, fiS, backwards, ixt)
Ixt - 4 (Missa, kthx, the_paul, halp)
Voth - 2 (field, Jessup)
Jessup - 1 (Exalt)
fiS - 1 (rodney)

I DID count the following post in my vote count, ixt, if this was only an example and not intended you should clarify and probably re-vote.

backwards, ur sticking to your story so i dont think anyone can reasonably question u during this first phase (wanting a tie). but for real with your voting, can u EXPLICITLY say what ur changing ur vote to? e.g.

unvote jessup
vote halp

rather than saying "unvote" then "vote [name]" its a tad confusing what your view is with the voting