TW Mafia: Still Worthy

[kthx]

Kthx usually has a lot to say about a lot of things, ixt busdriver claim warrants no response? Weird.

I actually did comment, learn to read ffs

[sdrawkcab]

Ah yes the superhero the bus driver. Who are you Keanu Reeves

Yes it added to conversation very much

[ixt]

also, this will probably be my last game i ever sign up for. if the likes of certain people (Voth specifically) want to use the lame reason "oh these people play the most spontaneous, lynch them must be mafia" theres really no reason to even sign up for these games anymore. now to address my voters: missa i already said im not putting a single thought for this phase because of what i described earlier. if u want to tag kthx as potential mafia the reasoning behind it could be hes using a joking demeanor as his only means of avoiding attention on himself. Paul has risen to my probable scum list, giving me a shady sort of vibe. but i do think there still is mafia that lies among the more scattered votes so im gonna have to look further into that

[Halp]

backwards, ur sticking to your story so i dont think anyone can reasonably question u during this first phase (wanting a tie). but for real with your voting, can u EXPLICITLY say what ur changing ur vote to? e.g.

unvote jessup
vote halp

rather than saying "unvote" then "vote [name]" its a tad confusing what your view is with the voting

The reason votes and unvotes are required to be in bold text is so that the moderator can more easily identify them while skimming 30 pages of bullshit. Do you really expect willby to read every word of your post to see that it was just an example? Are you dumb, scum, or both?

[Halp]

also, this will probably be my last game i ever sign up for. if the likes of certain people (Voth specifically) want to use the lame reason "oh these people play the most spontaneous, lynch them must be mafia" theres really no reason to even sign up for these games anymore.

Didn't you kind of prove their point by claiming BUSDRIVER ON D1?!?!?! Don't struggle, the answer is a definitive yes.

[Jessup]

Busdriver is a fine role if used properly. We will just need you honest ixt about actions you took after each night and to cross check results to make sure things line up on your role claim to prove its validity. If we have a doctor we may want to protect ixt tonight.

[Jessup]

I'd suggest target those you get a scum vibe off of and just be sure to report to town every phase now. Naturally a watcher or some such role should monitor you early on too to make sure you are what you say you are.

[Exalt]

I?ll spell it out, for those of you who can not keep up with basic English where punctuation is avoided because it is replaced with questionmarks

i want a tie.
Voting had: gripe was 5, ixt 4, and you had 2.
me moving my vote off gripe and onto you made it 4-4-3 creating a tie and easy opportunity to keep a tie

Wanting a tie vote on Day 1 is literally a scum move. There is no two ways around it. Also, the more you post, the more I think you're scum buddies with Halp, whose fucking obvious scum. The fact that you can't see any of this stuff means you're either completely oblivious, or you are scum. Which one is it?

I went back and found an old post I sent to Paul from another game where he wanted a No Lynch on Day 1 I wrote it to show him that a No Lynch is always the wrong move for town on Day 1.. He was scum that game, FYI. Here's the post. I'd like you to respond to it:


"Let's pretend its a 9 person game with 7 town, 2 scum. Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but mislynch someone everyday after. Let's also assume scum NK successfully each night.

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, 2 scum + No Lynch = 0% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum (8 players left, divided by 2 scum = 25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum (6 players left, divided by 2 scum = 33% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 33%.

Now let's say town lynch Day 1 instead:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, divided by 2 scum = 22% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum (7 players left, divided by 2 scum = 28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum (5 players left, divided by 2 scum = 40% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 40%.


As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone Day 1.

Other reasons why No Lynching is always bad outside of a Mislynch & Lose scenario:

1. Lynching can kill scum. Scum kills do not kill scum. More lynching = more scum deaths. Not lynching = less scum deaths.

2. If you don't lynch someone Day 1, you cannot analyze the wagons Day 2. Wagons/Lynches and where people vote during a lynch give information necessary to scum hunting. No Lynches give zero information in that regard while giving scum a free kill at night. You essentially lose a townie for zero gain.

3. The only reason I can think of for anyone to want a Day 1 No Lynch, aside from their faulty math, is because they generally think something like "the Cop will eventually save us, and the game doesn't even start until like Day 3 when they find a guilty." Sure, that may happen, but you're placing blind trust on a random person who may or may not be good at being the Cop. Also, what if that Cop gets NK'd immediately Night 1 while you No Lynched and placed the entire game on the hopes that they save the town instead? Also, even with a mislynch, one less player for the Cop to potentially investigate means a higher % chance for them to correctly investigate scum.

4. Generally speaking, night play always favors scum. They always get to night kill, and they usually have great roles such as roleblocker, godfather, etc that help keep them safe from town night actions. Town also tends to have power roles that can hurt town, such as a dumb vigilante that kills only townies, insane/skitzo cops giving false positives, busdrivers that screw up results, millers, paranoid gun owners killing town PRs, etc. Scum almost never have PRs with drawbacks like that.

5. All town night actions are essentially completely blind, no different from Day 1 lynches except that there's no actual dialogue to help other townies make good decisions or reign in dumb townies from making bad ones.

6. Without a Day 1 lynch giving any information, and assuming a Town PR like the Cop doesn't claim, the Day 2 lynch after a Day 1 No Lynch is just as random and blind as a Day 1 lynch, with near zero differences except one less townie and fewer allowed mislynches before game over.

7. A Day 1 mislynch at the very least allows town to move past specific reads they had from the start of the game, because they are proven right or wrong based on what their Day 1 lynch flips. It allows the game to move past the initial phase of the game. A Day 1 No Lynch just makes town repeat the exact same arguments and exact same reads they had on Day 1 with little to no change, meaning the Day 2 lynch will likely be the same person who would've otherwise been lynched Day 1.

I'm sure I can think of more reasons, but that's my stance on the issue, and it's pretty strong. I'll always say a Day 1 No Lynch is a terrible move for town to make in nearly every situation. There is a time and a place for No Lynches, but it's almost never on Day 1."

[Exalt]

Exalt is probably scum.

Vote voth

Great case you have there friendo. I'm very impressed with your scum hunting skills. You think I'm scum, but you vote Voth instead? Give a case and vote me if you think I'm scum, coward.

[Jessup]

You forgot the part that scum NEVER wants a tie D1. They ALWAYS want to vote a townie out.

[Exalt]

You forgot the part that scum NEVER wants a tie D1. They ALWAYS want to vote a townie out.

That's literally not true, and the math alone backs it up, not to mention nonstop imperical evidence on this forum alone showing how many times scum have forced a NL on Day 1 in various games.

C'mon Jessup. At least try to learn.

[Exalt]

emperical*

[Jessup]

I'm well aware of the reasoning you use but it simply is not always the best alternative when town is divided evenly which this sure looks like to me. Do we really want to lynch our busdriver? Hope the ixt train is over now.

[Jessup]

Though for the record that role claim seemed fishy as hell with the timing and abruptness of it all. Scum role could easily cause a bus drive or reverse action to take place and it could be a setup to mess up towns investigations and actions tonight. Very convenient to suddenly have knowledge of bus driver for town when we have the most power roles able to collect evidence on scum. I def have my eye on ixt now but think a lynch on him tonight should be out of the question.

[Exalt]

@ixt: Can you give a full claim, rather than just say busdriver? If you really are town, then why wouldn't you give the entire role? I've never heard of Captain America, Avengers Busdriver before, so an explaination would be helpful. I guess Dr Strange could make sense with his portals, but you put in so little effort that frankly, you'll be completely at fault if you do get lynched.

If it's a scum wagon on you, which I'm pretty damn certain it is considering I think Halp is scum and is your counter-wagon, then you're causing this yourself. Halp won't claim ever, because he's obvious scum whose really bad at it, but you already claimed, so there's no reason not to give the full claim. Let those who stay on your wagon even after a full-claim try to talk their way out of it when Halp has done absolutely nothing all game, never will, and has not claimed. They won't be able to, so this game will be pretty damn easy to wrap up. You need to play ball though if you really are town, or scum have an excuse to stay on you.