TW Mafia: Still Worthy

[Exalt]

I probably didn't specify that very well. I see the odds in a vacuum being 43%. Do you think our chances if we do a no lynch are 43% with this particular group of players if we do a no lynch? Sorry about the double post, I don't think my previous post was very clear and I didn't want to pull a Jessup by asking a question you've already answered

Well, it depends on whose still alive, but... probably? Imo, scum will have to choose between whether to NK a skilled player who possibly is a PR and be blocked for it, or someone that the NK will almost certainly work on due to no protection like Jessup. In my view, Jessup being essentially a VT (if town) and a liability means the doc would protect someone else, making the odds greater of either stopping the NK or having Jessup die. Both are good outcomes for tomorrow, because the remaining player pool is less unreliable with ixt and jessup gone. Granted, this is assuming Jessup is town. If she's scum, then at least the doc has better odds of protecting the real NK target.

So yeah, I think the odds are either the same or greater, since the NK could be stopped, Jessup could be gone, investigations will give more results to narrow down the list of possible scum, etc. I don't really see there being a better option without a straight up guilty result given today.

[field]

Well, it depends on whose still alive, but... probably? Imo, scum will have to choose between whether to NK a skilled player who possibly is a PR and be blocked for it, or someone that the NK will almost certainly work on due to no protection like Jessup. In my view, Jessup being essentially a VT (if town) and a liability means the doc would protect someone else, making the odds greater of either stopping the NK or having Jessup die. Both are good outcomes for tomorrow, because the remaining player pool is less unreliable with ixt and jessup gone. Granted, this is assuming Jessup is town. If she's scum, then at least the doc has better odds of protecting the real NK target.

So yeah, I think the odds are either the same or greater, since the NK could be stopped, Jessup could be gone, investigations will give more results to narrow down the list of possible scum, etc. I don't really see there being a better option without a straight up guilty result given today.

Gripe narrowed down the probabilities, you should rethink.

[Exalt]

Btw:

Vote Tally:
fiS- 6 (Voth, Exalt, Halp, sdrawkcab, the_paul, kthx)
Voth- 4 (fiS, rodney, ixt, Jessup)

fiS now has over half the votes, and will be lynched. Phase change incoming.

If Halp isn't full of shit and fake claiming, then we can narrow things down easily. I know I'm not scum, so this is the list:

Voth/backwards/Paul being 2 of the 3 scum.

Rodney/Jessup/Field being the other

Feel free to replace your name on this list with mine if you are town.

[Exalt]

Gripe narrowed down the probabilities, you should rethink.

It just raises the odds for the No Lynch to be the best move actually. You should rethink.

Scum NKing anyone from the first list containing 2 scum means the remaining two players are 100% caught scum. They simply cannot do it.

Scum NKing anyone from the second list containing 1 scum means 50-50 odds of lynching scum from that list.

Either way, scum NKing anyone tonight makes the odds of lynching then tomorrow ridiculously high, especially with the added PR results from another night. Assuming we lynch scum tomorrow, who else can scum NK before losing, since they will have killed all townies on the previous list that could have been mislynched. Scum can't NK at all at that point without basically losing, since anyone on the remaining list will be 100% scum.

Basically, a No Lynch today wins the game for town if Halp is legit.

[Exalt]

And if Halp is not legit, then No Lynching today is still the correct move for town.

[field]

I'm fine with a no lynch, but we can't actually vote for that so...

Need to make sure we vote for two scum wagons to prevent them from hammering a townie.

[Voth]

unvote halp

i am definitely okay with a no lynch. Anyone who tries to fuck it up is definitely scum. I actually believe halps claim and this role claim was perfectly timed.

my scum list is Paul, backwards, and Rodney

[sdrawkcab]

Guys I am in training all day will need time to catch up later

[WillBy]

Because phase change was only a few hours ago, the next change likely won't be until Thursday morning central time. Hammer rule still applies regarding votes. And field is correct, you may not abstain. Ties will result in a no-lynch

[the_paul]

Alright I can't keep this quiet any longer. God I want to wring ixt's fucking neck right now, he's the only wrench in this plan working. I am going to commit suicide right now, but I don't think we have a choice. I don't agree that a no lynch wins it for town definitively.

I am Nick Fury, town cop. I investigated Exalt night 1, but thanks to ixt I got an innocent result on Voth. Night 2 I investigated Backwards, and also got innocent. I find it very unlikely that I am na?ve, but it is a possibility. So basically, unfortunately, if we believe Halp, Exalt is the safest lynch today. One of either Exalt or Backwards is the godfather, and then there is 1 more mafia that needs to be found. Again, a lot of this depends on believing Halp, and also assuming I am not na?ve. Town has to have an investigative role, so I believe my results are accurate. So again:

Night 1: Voth (targeted Exalt) - Innocent
Night 2: Backwards - Innocent

Fis wagon: fiS- 6 (Voth, Exalt, Halp, sdrawkcab, the_paul, kthx)

kthx was 3rd party, Halp claims sensor, I am town cop, so 2 out of 3 of Exalt, Voth, and Backwards are Mafia. Voth and backwards both gave me innocent results, which if we are believing Halp, means one of them is the godfather.

So there you have it, there is everything I have. I am praying there is a town protective role, but if there isn't I still feel like I put town in a position to win. I fucked up on the fis wagon, but I guess to be fair the ixt wagon was wrong too. But this is me trying to make up for it. Sorry Exalt, I was really hoping we would have the same win conditions one of these days.

Vote EXALT

[the_paul]

If ixt busdrove backwards last night and didn't say anything I am burning these forums to the fucking ground

[Exalt]

QUOTE=Exalt;n1322411]Scum NKing anyone from the first list containing 2 scum means the remaining two players are 100% caught scum. They simply cannot do it.

Scum NKing anyone from the second list containing 1 scum means 50-50 odds of lynching scum from that list.
[/QUOTE]

Voth/backwards/Paul being 2 of the 3 scum.

Rodney/Jessup/Field being the other

Feel free to replace your name on this list with mine if you are town.

The way I see it, scum can now only NK from the second list (Rodney, Jessup, Field) or Halp. If they NK Halp, they confirm his results are true, so their only logical choice is the two townies among Rodney, Jessup, and Field.

Assuming we No Lynch and scum don't ninja hammer someone, the doctor has a 33% chance to stop the NK tonight, any investigation role has 33% chance to catch scum tonight, and if either of the two townies between Rodney/Jessup/Field are an investigation role, that chance goes up to 50%. If either is a cop, they basically catch scum by getting either a guilty or an innocent on either of their two counterparts, unless one of them is the godfather anyway.

So yeah, a No Lynch basically wins the game I think. The only question is how we succeed in forcing an NL without scum ninja hammering someone at the last second. I think there are two ways to go about it.

1. Basically nobody votes at all, allowing nobody to be close to a hammer. Its possible scum try to mass vote a townie at deadline though, but they don't have enough to force a hammer with just 3 players. They do if two townies vote another townie, so we shouldn't allow that. We should force everyone to unvote, and if anyone votes at all, they are probably scum and can be wagoned. It's a game of chicken at deadline though.

2. We all vote two players in the first list 4 to 4 and hope both are on scum. If one is a townie, scum will likely quickhammer them and win.

Also, if any townie has 2 townie votes on them at any point today, scum can quickhammer them, so don't be stupid with your vote.

[the_paul]

And to get ahead of this, yes this is the 4th game I've been back, and this is the 3rd time I have an investigative role (2x town 1 mafia). Don't tell me the odds, don't ask me how it happens, I understand it is highly unlikely, but it happened.

[the_paul]

If you guys want to no vote and force a tie because ixt is a loose fucking cannon, I'm good with that. The risk was too great I would die tonight to not publish my results, so I feel good about that too. I believe there has to be a protective role for town, so mafia has to choose between targeting me or taking a shot at the field. I can live with that too. But if we no lynch and I die tonight, at least you guys know everything I do.

Let me reiterate, if ixt did something like switch backwards and Exalt or something, I will snap. I'm curious to see the thoughts of everyone else.

Unvote EXALT

for now

[Exalt]

Lol Paul just scum claimed. He knows his team is fucked. Nice gamble I guess. You had to do something today, since I already laid out how it's literally impossible for your team to win with a No Lynch. Too bad you fucked up here.

I'm Clint Barton aka Hawkeye.

I am the watcher. Each night phase, I may choose one player to watch. If they are targeted by anyone that same night, I will be alerted of the FIRST person to target them.

Night 1, I watched Voth, funny enough. The result was that Ixt visited him. This is why I said I knew ixt was telling the truth about his claim. It's also why the first thing I did during Day 2 was ask ixt whether he switched someone or not. If he said he stayed home or swapped anyone but Voth, I'd know he was scum.

Night 2, I watched Rodney. Nobody visited him.

Easy fucking game. You dun fucked up Paul.