TW Mafia: Still Worthy

[Exalt]

I'm totally good with the no lynch today. I'm 99% on Exalt thanks to the math, but ixt could have fucked me over for the 2nd time. I won't be night killed tonight, because otherwise that would prove my results to be true. This gives me a good chance to find the 3rd mafia member and end this game. Just a reminder that we have had a verified Tracker, now we have claims of Sensor and Watcher. One of these 2 is almost assuredly untrue.

Yes, the Cop is almost assuredly untrue. I don't see there being a Cop, a Watcher, and a Tracker. Watcher and Tracker go together, but there's almost never a Cop with either of them. Regardless of Halp's legitimacy, I think it's impossible for you to be telling the truth here. I can't see how there's 3 investigative roles to go with just 3 scum and an SK. Do Cops even get guilty on SKs? I don't think they do. Also, I know I'm town, so it means you lied, you're a Naive Cop, or there's a Mafia Framer.

[the_paul]

your idea is probably best, but there is no way Paul is town because I am. We just speed things up if we lunch Paul.

Both things can be true actually. Out of you and backwards 1 is town 1 is godfather (I refuse to believe I am na?ve). Exalt has to be scum unless ixt targeted him again last night

[sdrawkcab]

Jfc guys wtf is happening

[the_paul]

You can argue that until you're blue in the face, but the fact remains that if we do a no lynch, the game is probably over if there are only 3 of you. I won't die tonight, voth won't, exalt won't, backwards won't. Jessup probably won't, so that's a short list of potential victims. Do a no lynch like you said and we can fid out the truth tomorrow, I'm fine with that.

Just keep an eye out towards the end of the phase when I have exactly 3 votes on me to be lynched.

[sdrawkcab]

1. Who the f would lynch someone over two innocent investigations with a bus driver in game
2. We really trying to say there was this many power roles?

[Exalt]

Both things can be true actually. Out of you and backwards 1 is town 1 is godfather (I refuse to believe I am na?ve). Exalt has to be scum unless ixt targeted him again last night

See, here's where your math is fucking up. You say you investigated me, but got the Innocent result on Voth, but now you say that either Backwards or Voth have to be the Godfather. Well if Voth is the Godfather, then it means I'm obviously not scum, so why the fuck would you be saying all these things are true at the same time? Your math doesn't check out at all.

[Voth]

You can argue that until you're blue in the face, but the fact remains that if we do a no lynch, the game is probably over if there are only 3 of you. I won't die tonight, voth won't, exalt won't, backwards won't. Jessup probably won't, so that's a short list of potential victims. Do a no lynch like you said and we can fid out the truth tomorrow, I'm fine with that.

Just keep an eye out towards the end of the phase when I have exactly 3 votes on me to be lynched.

This is now Paul begging for a no lynch because they want to try to pull some scum hammer bullshit, which is their only chance.

but, if we no lynch and force two wagons on Paul and backwards, like Rodney said, that should keep the scum hammering at bay.

Whatever you guys want. I am down to NL with those two wagons or just lynch Paul off, he is 100% scum to me.

[the_paul]

Again, I do not have a definitive guilty on Exalt. A lot of this is believing Halp. If we no lynch, I can investigate either Exalt or Halp and we can see what tomorrow shows

[Voth]

If me, Rodney and Jessup vote Paul. Exalt and Field vote backwards. There is no possible way for scum to hammer anyone or lynch a townie with numbers as long as town stays on board with this (looking at you, jessup).

if jessup is retarded and will not play ball, we have to lynch Paul.

[Voth]

Meant exalt, field, and halp vote backwards. Should be a 3-3-3 if scum completely defects, or did I miss someone?

[the_paul]

See, here's where your math is fucking up. You say you investigated me, but got the Innocent result on Voth, but now you say that either Backwards or Voth have to be the Godfather. Well if Voth is the Godfather, then it means I'm obviously not scum, so why the fuck would you be saying all these things are true at the same time? Your math doesn't check out at all.

Aren't you the math guy? Halp says 2 mafia on the fis wagon. That's 2 mafia out of Voth, Exalt, sdrawkcab, the_paul. Kthx is dead and this theory is predicated on halp telling the truth, so they have been removed.

Voth and backwards have turned up innocent results. I am the town cop. 2 out of 3 of Voth, Exalt, and backwards are mafia, and therefore 1 has to be the godfather. It isn't as difficult as you're making it out to be.

To reiterate, by the numbers there has to be 1 town, 1 godfather, and 1 scum out of Voth, Exalt, and Backwards, unless I am na?ve, unless I am lying, or unless halp is lying. There are no alternatives.

[the_paul]

If I am na?ve then willby is a truly, truly terrible person irl

[RoDNeY]

If I am na?ve then willby is a truly, truly terrible person irl

resorting to blaming the host is just bad form paul, i have a strong feeling youre caught and exalt just sealed this

[Exalt]

Aren't you the math guy? Halp says 2 mafia on the fis wagon. That's 2 mafia out of Voth, Exalt, sdrawkcab, the_paul. Kthx is dead and this theory is predicated on halp telling the truth, so they have been removed.

Voth and backwards have turned up innocent results. I am the town cop. 2 out of 3 of Voth, Exalt, and backwards are mafia, and therefore 1 has to be the godfather. It isn't as difficult as you're making it out to be.

To reiterate, by the numbers there has to be 1 town, 1 godfather, and 1 scum out of Voth, Exalt, and Backwards, unless I am na?ve, unless I am lying, or unless halp is lying. There are no alternatives.

Again, if one of them is a Godfather, then obviously that means I'm not scum, because your theory of me being scum doesn't work. People who voted fis: (Voth, Exalt, Halp, sdrawkcab, the_paul, kthx). Kthx is dead, so Voth, Exalt, Halp, backwards, Paul. If Halp didn't lie, then Voth, Exalt, Backwards, Paul is the list. I know damn well I'm town, but I'll leave my name there for argument sake. If you weren't lying, then Voth/Exalt/Backwards being 2 of 3 scum would make sense only if you didn't get innocents on everyone. Sure, maybe one of them is the Godfather, but that means I'm obviously not. You could have just investigated me tonight to prove one way or another who was scum without claiming today, since it was already shown earlier by me that scum cannot NK anyone that voted Fis without confirming 2 scum players. That means they have to NK someone between Rodney/Jessup/Field, whoever is town among them.

So yeah, you never had any chance to die tonight, and its been shown how a No Lynch basically wins the game for town, yet you decided to randomly claim a bunch of random innocent results that are based around a busdriver, a godfather, you not being naive, and who knows what else to force a lynch through today rather than a NL. I'm the Watcher, so it makes your random Cop claim look even less credible with a Watcher and a Tracker in this game. With only 3 scum and an SK, it makes no sense for you to be a non-modified Cop for obvious balance reasons.

Add all that up, and it makes no sense why you'd have done what you tried to do today. That's some Jessup level analysis you tried to pawn off as legitimate. Even if you weren't lying, Halp could have been, which would mean you were purposely trying to lose the game for town over some really shady Cop results, none of them an actual Guilty.

[the_paul]

Again, if one of them is a Godfather, then obviously that means I'm not scum, because your theory of me being scum doesn't work. People who voted fis: (Voth, Exalt, Halp, sdrawkcab, the_paul, kthx). Kthx is dead, so Voth, Exalt, Halp, backwards, Paul. If Halp didn't lie, then Voth, Exalt, Backwards, Paul is the list. I know damn well I'm town, but I'll leave my name there for argument sake. If you weren't lying, then Voth/Exalt/Backwards being 2 of 3 scum would make sense only if you didn't get innocents on everyone. Sure, maybe one of them is the Godfather, but that means I'm obviously not. You could have just investigated me tonight to prove one way or another who was scum without claiming today, since it was already shown earlier by me that scum cannot NK anyone that voted Fis without confirming 2 scum players. That means they have to NK someone between Rodney/Jessup/Field, whoever is town among them.

So yeah, you never had any chance to die tonight, and its been shown how a No Lynch basically wins the game for town, yet you decided to randomly claim a bunch of random innocent results that are based around a busdriver, a godfather, you not being naive, and who knows what else to force a lynch through today rather than a NL. I'm the Watcher, so it makes your random Cop claim look even less credible with a Watcher and a Tracker in this game. With only 3 scum and an SK, it makes no sense for you to be a non-modified Cop for obvious balance reasons.

Add all that up, and it makes no sense why you'd have done what you tried to do today. That's some Jessup level analysis you tried to pawn off as legitimate. Even if you weren't lying, Halp could have been, which would mean you were purposely trying to lose the game for town over some really shady Cop results, none of them an actual Guilty.

You're exactly right, I can either investigate you or halp tonight. I'll make the decision later in case there is a mafia framer, a possibility you brought up earlier.

Anyone who thinks Exalt "got me" is just siding with him because they are mafia teammates. He didn't "get me", he either misread or deliberately tried to misclassify what I very explicitly stated 2 different times in the same post. For being the math wizard of TW Mafia, I don't understand how he needs the same explanation 15 times, because my analysis is almost airtight. I will lay it out again, painfully explicitly, so we can stop this charade these 3 are trying to pull.

I have 2 innocent investigation results. I targeted Exalt, but he was busdriven, so my night 1 innocent result is reflective of Voth. Exalt was my choice, he was bus driven, the innocent result is on Voth (unless ixt lied).

Night 2, I targeted Backwards. I got a night 2 innocent result on Backwards. If Ixt busdrove Backwards, he didn't say anything, so that is a wild card in my pretty airtight logic. There's now at to know this now, since he didn't say anything, so I need to continue assuming that this is not the case.

Halp said there are 2 Mafia that lynched Fis. 6 people voted to lynch Fis: Voth, Exalt, Halp, sdrawkcab, the_paul, kthx. Kthx is dead, he was serial killer. That leaves 5. The whole theory revolves around Halp telling the truth. If he lied, this dude has balls of steel and well played, but I have to work assuming he is telling the truth until tonight. That leaves 4. Voth, Exalt, Backwards, the_paul. I am the town cop, so I know 2 out of the following 3 are mafia: Backwards, Exalt, Voth. I have innocent results reflective of both Voth and Backwards. 1 of the 2 is legitimately innocent, 1 of the 2 is the godfather. For halp's results to be honest, Exalt is the only person that would be as close to verified scum as possible. Unfortunately in games this small, I don't have the luxury of waiting to verify my sanity. That's why I made my results public.

The only options here are: Halp lied and, in a brilliant move, probably won the game for scum. The other option is that I am na?ve, but halp could still be telling the truth, so we have 2 mafia out of 4 names.

There would have been absolutely no reason to come forward if I was mafia, and it would have been legendarily stupid. My fucking name got leaked after day 1, and not a single person has asked for my role, not one bit. I could have easily kept flying under the radar, but today is the day the game can be won.

Also notice that exactly 3 people have popped up saying "LOL EXALT BAITED PAUL". 3 people, convenient number. How exactly was I baited? They keep talking about holes in my logic, where are the holes? The only possible defense that Exalt can claim is that ixt targeted backwards, and that backwards should be a guilty result as per my investigation. Or Exalt can come out and say that Halp is not telling the truth. Other than that, the numbers and the logic on my claims is absolutely air tight, and I have yet to see anyone point out a legitimate flaw. Exalt tried, but it was because he deliberately misread my post to try to spin what I said, and I quickly quoted it and pointed out 2 times where I said the exact opposite.

I'll take it a step further. I guarantee, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that the following people survive the night phase: the_paul, Exalt, voth, backwards, halp. I will not die at night because it would prove my story true. Exalt will not die at night because he's either A) scum, or B) his death would prove that I am na?ve, or C) his death would prove halp was lying, and in this example it would make halp scum. Voth will not die because he is either A) the godfather, or B) incriminates backwards when/if Voth flipped town. Backwards, same exact situation as Voth. Halp, if he gets killed he will either A) flip town sensor, or B) he would have to be scum so he obviously won't get killed by his own team.

The only hole is that I am na?ve, which I should be able to disprove tonight. So put your money where your mouth is, force the no lynch, and see my results tomorrow. The game is basically over, because if I get lynched then I flip Nick Fury, town cop, and my list of 3 names is out in the open.

Exalt, Voth (based on actions, but could be Backwards mathematically), and Rodney based on his response is who I believe is the 1 mafia that wasn't on the fis wagon, but this is speculation 100% on my part.

Force the no lynch, I'll share my results during the next day phase, and we can see who was telling the truth. If there is a town protective role, you have a list of viable people to protect that is everybody in the game minus the 5 people guaranteed to survive tonight.

If I don't get a guilty result tonight feel free to lynch me because I shouldn't be able to get 3 innocent results in a row as a legit cop.

Also, go look at the timing after Exalt's "roleclaim". Somehow they think his claim of a tracker, in a game with a sensor and a watcher, that came after a cop roleclaim is valid, but a cop role is so completely out of the realm of possibility. Doesn't add up, and for a number guy like Exalt to be the one making these "mistakes", that should pretty telling in its own right.