Election Thread #1 -real version (Let's see how long we can stay on topic)

[Vykromond]

I'm not using Yahoo!'s results because they are projecting very far ahead, including extrapolation of actual vote numbers. They don't seem to have learned too much from the 2000 election. However, it is possible that the precise popular vote is more up-to-the-minute on Yahoo! than on the sites that I'm using.

[Verthanthi]

Interestingly enough, though, CNN still hasn't called it.

[Vykromond]

Fucked-up news: CNN just backpedaled, reducing Bush's electors from 210 to 197. I can't tell what the fuck they changed; update in a minute or so.

EDIT: I have no idea what's going on here, and with the Florida thing I have no time to spare and check. I think they removed Colorado, but Colorado don't have 13 electors!

[Verthanthi]

Website never changed =]

[Jerome Scuggs]

Jerome, no state has only 1 vote. Every state has electoral votes equal to its congressional representation; thus, a minimum of 3.

What you probably saw was the website which you're checking adding the free Maine elector to Bush's tally. I discussed the free Maine elector, which comes from the smaller of Maine's two major congressional districts, earlier in this thread.

fit ^

[Vykromond]

ABC has called Florida.

[Vykromond]

The BBC/AP have called Florida.

[Vykromond]

Fox still has 144 electors for Kerry. I don't know what kind of crack they're on, but it's probably Fox crack, which is a special kind indeed.

[Vykromond]

Wisconsin has switched.

Kerry
622,093 51% 0
Bush
(Incumbent)
593,334 48% 0
Nader
6,756 1% 0
Badnarik
2,630 0% 0
Cobb
1,080 0% 0
Brown
177 0% 0
Harris
163 0% 0

43% precincts reporting - Updated 11:49 p.m. ET

(CNN; ABC and BBC/AP both confirm this)

[Jerome Scuggs]

Wisconsin has switched.

Kerry
622,093 51% 0
Bush
(Incumbent)
593,334 48% 0
Nader
6,756 1% 0
Badnarik
2,630 0% 0
Cobb
1,080 0% 0
Brown
177 0% 0
Harris
163 0% 0

43% precincts reporting - Updated 11:49 p.m. ET

(CNN; ABC and BBC/AP both confirm this)

i dunno it might swing again, tis only 43% :P

[Fit of Rage]

Wisconsin will certainly help Kerry out, but if Bush keeps Ohio/Florida/New Mexico/Colorado as predicted, he'll win.

[Vykromond]

Since this fifteen-minute block has been our own little Florida corner, an update: the BBC/AP and ABC are the only ones calling it! Looks like everyone else is just too afraid to do it. CNN, NPR, MSNBC, and Fox (!!!!!!!!!!!) all still talk about it as if it were undecided, which I have to say just isn't true unless there's some sort of court maelstrom that's going to occur.

[Vykromond]

i dunno it might swing again, tis only 43% :P

You're absolutely right, Jerome. I forgot to put my usual disclaimer on that poll.

People, all four mid-Midwestern swing states are not decided, though they are weakly leaning Kerry at the moment. Ohio, however, is still leaning Bush, though it sure is closer than Florida:

Bush
(Incumbent)
1,969,445 52% 0
Kerry
1,822,026 48% 0
Badnarik
10,428 0% 0
Peroutka
8,732 0% 0

69% precincts reporting - Updated 11:53 p.m. ET

As for New Hampshire, my little pet state in this thread, Kerry still holds a 1% lead.

[Fit of Rage]

God I hope so.

[Vykromond]

NPR have called Florida, using the logic (logic that actually works!) that a 300,000 vote lead with 3% of precincts remaining is unlikely to get completely switched. Looks like something got derailed with the Kerry campaign here. It'll be interesting in post-election analysis to try and figure out just what it was.