TW Mafia 2020: TIGER KING - Murder, Mayhem, Madness

[the_paul]

Good game, thanks for playing new guys. Hope you all stick around

[Jessup]

OverthinkingIt

heheh OTI ,

Girl you got some explaining to do!! :laugh: Kthx couldn't have visited me if he was an even night cult recruiter. You sure you saw him visit me?

[Jessup]

Hey, I seem to remember being one of the few who voted kthx last lynch

true m_leo you and OTI stayed on my original kthx train. Sadly mafia unles they knew kthx's role would have been happy for hi to go. Right now I suspect you townie leaning more than scum leaning.

Oh but don't you all worry. I have a SCUM LIST and ways to back it up. :whip: I'm the Tiger King!!

[Jessup]

Town really needs to know if we had a vigilante go for kthx if your x-shots are depleted.

I suspect scum had some way to kill 2 players tonight but have one other possible theory.

I will say this.

LAST PHASE ..

MAFIA KILLED VOTH &

VOTH KILLED SDRAWKCAB

I have the murderer 95% pegged too imo but will reveal this in due time.

[PartyFalcon]

I asked halp, he said “even night” modifies Ascetic, NOT cult recruiter, ie kthx was an even night ascetic, but an every night cult recruiter. This explains why overthinkingit got a result night 1 from targeting kthx despite the ascetic modifier, and why vehicle did not get a result night 2 when targeting kthx.

1. The Doc Cult: 0-1 remaining member (Threat: Low)
We (as townies, generally speaking) don’t know whether kthx recruited anyone N1, but N2 kthx visited beast who was strong-willed (this visit was confirmed by the_paul, who flipped town) and beast has since flipped town. N3 kthx died prior to resolution of recruitment night actions, so could not have recruited anyone N3. This means at most there is likely 1 surviving Doc Cult Member who likely does not have a factional kill, and the current threat level is therefore low.

2. The Baskin-Robbins Cult: 0-1 remaining member (Threat: Low)
Similarly to the Doc Cult analyses, we (as townies, generally speaking) do not know whether Voth was able to convert anyone to his 3rd party win-con as a result of his night 2 allowed factional kill—as I described before, I don’t think Voth would have forgone a shot at a kill there, which means anyone who was protected N2 could have been converted; my two biggest concerns here were the_paul and Jessup since they seemed like the obvious targets for voth N2 (Jessup as known town, t_p as voth’s biggest threat). If Voth did get someone, they do not have a factional kill and therefore the threat level here is also low.

3. THE MAFIA (Threat level: HIGH)
Based on evidence of what could have been 2 big cults (but looks like is now at most 2 dying fingers that used to be the dreams of cults), it looks like there’s probably only one mafioso left, POSSIBLY 2 but it seems like for town to stand a chance it’s likely just the one. This person (or persons) DOES have a factional kill, killing our watcher the_paul last night, sdrawkcab the night before, and exalt on night one. This person (or persons) continues to be our biggest threat and is therefore where we need to focus at the moment.

if you’re TOWN, please try to keep focused—cults can be distracting and are definitely terrifying, but right now I think we need to keep up the good ole fashioned mafioso scum hunt and find the person (or persons) who entered the game in a faction with Willby as their GF and vehicle by their side as Role Cop. (This is at least my methodology rn, I guess you should use your own just for the love of town please make it rational)

[Jessup]

I asked halp, he said “even night” modifies Ascetic, NOT cult recruiter, ie kthx was an even night ascetic, but an every night cult recruiter. This explains why overthinkingit got a result night 1 from targeting kthx despite the ascetic modifier, and why vehicle did not get a result night 2 when targeting kthx.

Ummm ok , not that I disbelieve you PF but this obviously changes SOME things but I need to hear this from the mod and not you.

Halp Can you please confirm this publicly ASAP halp?

[Jessup]

This really hinges on kthx day 1. Who blocked him? I suppose it was mafia if no one can at this crucial time come out and say. It is IMPERATIVE to know.

There is also a chance mafia has a commuter/busdriver role and targeted kthx and myself I suppose too..

[Jessup]

Multiple sources of info explaining why Kthx was blocked/failed N1

1)

If a

Cult Leader

attempts to recruit a member of the mafia, they usually either fail or commit suicide
2)
If the player the Cult Leader chooses to convert is a Mafioso, the attempt will fail although his identity will not be revealed to the Mafioso.
3)
Some moderators will force the Cult Leader to commit suicide if they attempt to recruit scum

Above we see that kthx in ALL liklihood tried to recruit a mafia member which he could not do!

Voth on the other hand COULD recruit mafia balancing the 2 cults in game as mafia were a smaller number of players.

This should resolve the N1 action kthx was blocked on.

I AM STILL TOWN AND YOUR TIGER KING!! :thumbsup:

[Jessup]

Voths Role -

Inquisitor -

As always, care should be taken with recruitment, as Inquisitor is generally able to recruit Anti-Town players and recruited players keep their former abilities. For more information, see

Cult

. The recruited players do not gain access to the factional kill if the Inquisitor dies.

[Jessup]

OverthinkingIt

I'm glad this cleared your name up. I'm back to trusting you again lol!

[OverthinkingIt]

Well shit. RIP T_P. At least I was right about kthx. Idk why he would admit to the ascetic piece w/o admitting to even night. That part had me begrudgingly certain of his non-town alliance.

I don't think Jessup is scum. Again Voth couldn't have recruited her. N1 she visited Exalt. N2 she died. I don't think kthx could have recruited her either bc N1 I watched him and saw him be blocked. N2 I watched Jessup to see if she was recruited and got no results, which I think means no one visited her. I don't remember who was saying she might be cult, PF?

Kthx could have recruited someone last night though.

[Jessup]

Now this is cleared up to ANY reasonable real townie, we now must move onto mafia and explaining how we lost 2 players the last two nights.

WE HAVE ZERO CULT MEMBERS ALIVE SO PUT THIS TO BED AND ONLT FOCUS ON SCUM!!

First let's focus on the night Voth and Sdrawkcab died.

Voth would have DEFINITELY gone for a kill as Inquisitor. As a Killing/Serial Kill Role as his FIRST ACTION/Then Cultist Recruiting Role as his SECOND ACTION in which if he fails a kill attempt that player (in this sdrawkcab would become a member of his cult).

Actions occur in this order: Roleblocks > Protecting roles > Killing roles VOTH > Recruiting roles VOTH > Investigative roles.

Therefore Voth was SUCCESSFUL at killing Sdrawkcab because he has a KILLING ACTION.

Sdrawkcab is DEAD killed by Voth

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Now let us focus on Voths death. Either a townie Vigilante killed voth which is less likely because the following night was another double kill and I see very little chance town has a 2-shot Vigilante or.. the more probable explanation is Mafia targeted Voth. Why would mafia target Voth though you may ask? Because Inquisitor CAN KILL OR RECRUIT MAFIA. VOTH WAS MAFIA ENEMY NUMBER 1 EVEN MORESO THAN A TOWN ENEMY THOUGH HE WAS INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS TO TOWN TOO.

How did mafia know about Voth? well.. remember who we just lynched. VEHICLE WAS A MAFIA ROLE COP AND IN ALL PROBABILITY INVESTIGATED VOTH THE NIGHT BEFORE AND THEY KNEW HIS ROLE ALREADY GOING INTO THAT NIGHT.

Voth is DEAD killed by MAFIA


Now....who is mafia?? I believe we have AT LEAST 2 AND SADLY POSSIBLY 3 LEFT. :skull:

I'm pretty sure I know 2 but will withhold that info for now but reveal it shortly. I'd first like to hear towns thoughts about what I've said before I start pointing fingers.

Who do you all think is mafia? :juggle:

[Jessup]

Well shit. RIP T_P. At least I was right about kthx. Idk why he would admit to the ascetic piece w/o admitting to even night. That part had me begrudgingly certain of his non-town alliance.

I don't think Jessup is scum. Again Voth couldn't have recruited her. N1 she visited Exalt. N2 she died. I don't think kthx could have recruited her either bc N1 I watched him and saw him be blocked. N2 I watched Jessup to see if she was recruited and got no results, which I think means no one visited her. I don't remember who was saying she might be cult, PF?

Kthx could have recruited someone last night though.

Yup PF was saying I was possible cult and kassius threw a FAST vote out on me too

[Jessup]

Oh ya I forget to address last nights kills.

We either FINALLY had a vigilante type role for town take out Kthx

or

Mafia somehow used a double kill modifier or there is some other 3rd party role that can kill. That is all that makes sense to me. I thought perhaps the_paul could suicide because his leader died or perhaps kthx had to suicide because he tried again to recruit mafia or something. I was thinking maybe he had a 1 shot fail attempt or something as a modifier. The suicide theory is really weak though to me but I had to mention it as a slight possibility too. I seriously doubt either of them suicided. Much more likely mafia had 2 kills or mafia did 1 and townie vigilante did the other.

[PartyFalcon]

Well shit. RIP T_P. At least I was right about kthx. Idk why he would admit to the ascetic piece w/o admitting to even night. That part had me begrudgingly certain of his non-town alliance.

I don't think Jessup is scum. Again Voth couldn't have recruited her. N1 she visited Exalt. N2 she died. I don't think kthx could have recruited her either bc N1 I watched him and saw him be blocked. N2 I watched Jessup to see if she was recruited and got no results, which I think means no one visited her. I don't remember who was saying she might be cult, PF?

Kthx could have recruited someone last night though.

Youve got the conclusions a bit flipped, but the takeaway is more or less the same (please see my above post analyzing the threats to town from each scum faction), you’re also correct that I have explained this possibility but now that we know a bit more I shall do it again...

inquisitor (Voth) is primarily a serial killer where if the kill fails then the target becomes the same alignment as the inquisitor; I asked Halp after Voth’s flip whether the recruit part of the action was active or passive (ie whether the inquisitor needs to be alive after the kill action resolves as failed in order to actively recruit the surviving target, or whether the recruitment part of the role happens passively after the kill fails even if the inquisitor has died during that night phase between performing the failed killing action and the resolution of recruiting actions thereafter). Halp indicated this (active vs passive theories of inquisitorial recruitment) is a recognized ambiguity in the role mechanics subject to moderator interpretation as to whether it’s passive or active recruitment requiring the inquisitor to still be alive to recruit, ie we can’t rule out the possible scenario that Voth targeted someone for an N2 kill, Voth died at the same time as the target, and the target was protected and from death and therefore passively recruited to voth’s third party win-con (ie the Baskin-Robbins Cult). See the setup post on page 1 describing night action resolutions if this is still confusing (I also encourage you to ask Halp directly).

However, the opposite is true for kthx last night, since kthx was only a cult recruiter (not an inquisitor like Voth), and recruitment night actions resolve after killing actions, which means kthx was dead before having a chance to visit anyone last night. Note: the reason Voth possibly could have gotten someone after his own death is due to the possibility that the “recruitment” is done passively in the case of an inquisitor (depending on how the moderator interprets the role) with the true night action performed being a killing action; by contrast a recruiter only recruits, which is resolved after killing night actions have all resolved.

Now that ive explained this possible distinction with the inquisitor for what is quite literally the fourth time this game (I know it’s 85 pages tho), can we PLEASE PLEASE focus on finding the mafia and stop being distracted by the cults?

To the extent either of the 2 cults still have living members, neither cult can recruit anymore with the inquisitor and recruiter dead, but mafia still gets to kill one of us every night. If you’re reading this and you’re a cult member blowing in the breeze without a leader, I assure you that you have a <1% chance of winning unless you help find and eliminate the remaining mafia.