TW Mafia 2020: TIGER KING - Murder, Mayhem, Madness

[kthx]

the_paul This has nothing to do with kthx grudges. We actually semi made up and wished each other GL this game. It has to do with circumstance and the way he reacted. He was the focus of fake claim. I chose him for lurking and being useless. I did not like how he reacted and noticed a pattern emerge with others too who tried to shoot down my claim. He may very well be town but I feel strongly he may very well be scum too and feel the most info we can obtain from today is to either have him claim or be lynched and see how he flips. 404 posts is a lot to help show patterns and react how ever it goes if he swings.

What do you want me to do to be less useless? Lie to town and claim I day investigated someone and got guilty based on garbage gut feelings?

[the_paul]

the_paul This has nothing to do with kthx grudges. We actually semi made up and wished each other GL this game. It has to do with circumstance and the way he reacted. He was the focus of fake claim. I chose him for lurking and being useless. I did not like how he reacted and noticed a pattern emerge with others too who tried to shoot down my claim. He may very well be town but I feel strongly he may very well be scum too and feel the most info we can obtain from today is to either have him claim or be lynched and see how he flips. 404 posts is a lot to help show patterns and react how ever it goes if he swings.

That's fair and I don't necessarily disagree. I'm just saying it's tough to balance because if Kthx flips town, you obviously are not going to be lynched because you're confirmed. Most of the people on the Kthx wagon can just say "hehe I was just following the confirmed townie !!" and most of them will also skate. The kthx wagon feels like a perfect one for scum to jump on and hide because it is very unlikely that they will face any heat if they are wrong.

I got a different read from Kthx's reactions, but I've already admitted that it's hard for me to judge because I'm reading and reacting to everything so late. You might be dead on and Kthx is scum, but it just feels like a great wagon for scum to hide on. Also, Jessup, you did pretty well voting scum out last game, but you don't have any information the rest of us don't. You're a confirmed townie, but you don't have any additional information the rest of us don't. The only advantage you have is that you don't have to worry about getting lynched if you're wrong.

Now the best way I could end this post would be to wrap it up with a list of people I suspect, why I suspect them, and then vote on who I find most suspicious. I don't have any of this because I've been a worthless inactive fuk thus far. Just my $.02 on whats gone on so far, take it all with a grain of salt.

[scarlet]

I can only bang my head against the wall for so long. I am all for thorough posting, but I can only respond to so many manipulative, half-baked, multi-quote shitposts (especially on mobile) before you have to pay me to continue.

So respond to post #309, page 21 before the end of the day. Not with some throwaway bullshit which totally fails to address the post you're theoretically responding to like 100% of what you've posted since jessup was mod-cleared. You're obviously not getting lynched today, and that'll be enough for me to enter D2 with on you. What's the fact that you've avoided doing this and have instead continued to make vaguely accusatory posts supposed to imply? Why are you sitting on a scarlet lynch if you're not willing to comment on any of my actual posts?

[Jessup]

The vehicle vote has more a scum vibe to me than the kthx vote to me. There really has been no concerted effort like there was vs vehicle. Kthx was a slow peppering of votes while vehicle was def a gang up that moved faster. You are right. ultimately I have no extra info than anyone else but gut feeling from how my fake claim went. I just want kthx to claim and I will reconsider and go for willby then.

[Voth]

Let's be fucking clear about this: you're supporting Vehicles plan over Exalt's(/now also my) 'just shoot someone plan'. Having dayvig!jessup shoot me (scarlet) and you lynch guilty!kthx is, according to you, WORSE than having dayvig!jessup shoot nobody and die quietly in the night after a guilty!kthx lynch. That's the plan you're endorsing by voting/fingering me/exalt over Vehicle. The difference between these plans is that scarlet gets shot in exalt's.
You driving a wagon on me now is equivalent to dayvig!jessup shooting me. Yet, you're going after me for endorsing a plan where just that happens.
This only makes sense if either: you're straight up lying, or you think that scarlet getting shot is bad for town.
Seeing as you're driving a lynch on me over this, I guess that means that you're scum.

What's with this weakass posturing? I get that people are still fluffposting, but you're mostly not. The only scenario in which I could ever believe that either you (Voth) or Vehicle aren't scum is if you're totally incompetent.
I get that you're proposing the ideal (dayvig!jessup shoots guilty!kthx) but we all are, that's nothing special.
Even the fact that you'd be willing to let perfect be the enemy of good, if you weren't implicitly defending Vehicle and were just purely going after exalt/scarlet for having said 'just shoot someone', when you have the awareness of how jessup plays that you do implies to me that you're not aligned with town interests. You're willing to bet 2 lynches on the fact that jessup would make the optimal play (shooting kthx) but not willing to bet 1 dayvig shot on the fact that jessup would make the optimal play (shooting kthx)?

In my opinion it's less extremely antitown than you claim, though still suboptimal. That could a difference in opinion from metagames, sure, but consider:
Vehicle has outwardly on multiple occasions said And advocated for that Jessup should just shoot "nobody". definitely not anybody that's not Kthx. And that mindset which you yourself have defended whether you admit it or not is extremely scummy play.


Eat my ass dude, are you always this lazy when driving contrived wagons as scum?
An Exalt lynch is terrible, I'm not getting lynched, a Kthx lynch is about the same as a random lynch, and a Vehicle or Voth lynch would be great. I'm for sure not advocating the Exalt or Kthx (or scarlet) lynch, just acknowledging that those are what are likely to be able to happen.

Only thing that changed is that Vehicle and Voth became so much scummier. Backwards is for sure more suspicious than, say, Beast, but he's not anywhere near the same ballpark as Vehicle or Voth.

Here's an ordered list of how towny/scummy I find each player. I write these a lot anyway and post them to contextualize them since I don't keep notes.
Town:
Scarlet
Jessup
More likely than balance town:
Exalt
Beast
Neutral reads:
Kassius
Poopcat
Willby
PartyFalcon
the_paul
Absolute null reads:
Zeebu
M_Leohnard
More likely than balance scum:
Kthx
OverthinkingIt
Sdrawkcab
Very likely scum:
Vehicle
Voth

The only lynches I would be happy with would be Vehicle/Voth.

---

@Zeebu
During the jessup hardclaim Vehicle said "don't shoot anybody, or if you must then only shoot kthx", while Exalt said "Shoot kthx, or if you must shoot somebody and we'll lynch kthx". Vehicle also seemed to buy jessup's claim. On the basis of this, Voth had decided to go after Exalt.
After it was shown to be a fakeclaim, I showed up and supported Exalt's position. On that basis, Vehicle/Voth are pushing my wagon now.
Kthx is being lynched by the thoughtpolice for purely meta reasons, though he's also been totally useless all game.
That's about it for all the active wagons right now that aren't just votes left behind from people who haven't posted in a day.

1. I don't know where everyone got the idea that Jessup would assuredly die N1 if he proved himself to be town D1 by shooting Kthx and him flipping town. Sure, strongman is a possibility and it is exacerbated by the fact that Jessups role would have been very powerful. However, strongman is not a lock and Jessup dying N1 is not a lock. I don't know that I've ever played a game without a protective role and if our protective role didn't protect Jessup under those circumstances, they should not play this game ever again.

2. No, I'm endorsing a plan where Kthx is shot and then we confirm Jessup and move on to a regular D1 lynch where everyone is accountable for their vote. If Jessup was confirmed everyone including his scum team votes Kthx, so no one is accountable for their vote and we are out of useful info on D2. I feel like I'm blue in the face saying this. My plan is not the same as Jessup shooting you and then us lynching Kthx. If you can't see that, I don't know what to say.

Yeah, this is where you lose me on this shitpost. The rest of it doesn't even make any sense. It's rambling and I don't have time to decode all of it right now. Maybe I'll come back when I have more time and try, but I got two kids to get to bed right now.

[scarlet]

1. I don't know where everyone got the idea that Jessup would assuredly die N1 if he proved himself to be town D1 by shooting Kthx and him flipping town. Sure, strongman is a possibility and it is exacerbated by the fact that Jessups role would have been very powerful. However, strongman is not a lock and Jessup dying N1 is not a lock. I don't know that I've ever played a game without a protective role and if our protective role didn't protect Jessup under those circumstances, they should not play this game ever again.

I've maybe never played a game of forum mafia with an actual doctor. Where I'm from they're doctor/roleblockers in the beginner/standard setups and they usually have a 1/3 - 2/3 chance of appearing. In any setup with two out of a cop, a vig and a doctor, mafia will almost certainly have a roleblocker, which is for all intents and purposes the same as jessup being the nightkill target (if they can't act ever again).
Are you seriously suggesting that it's normal and expected on TW for a cop+vig to be able to just claim D1 and assume that they'll be covered by a doctor and scum won't be able to do anything about it? I don't buy that at all.

2. No, I'm endorsing a plan where Kthx is shot and then we confirm Jessup and move on to a regular D1 lynch where everyone is accountable for their vote. If Jessup was confirmed everyone including his scum team votes Kthx, so no one is accountable for their vote and we are out of useful info on D2. I feel like I'm blue in the face saying this. My plan is not the same as Jessup shooting you and then us lynching Kthx. If you can't see that, I don't know what to say.

There's nobody who didn't endorse this plan except for Vehicle. Vehicle said he'd prefer that jessup never shoot. You're going after people for saying that they'd prefer jessup shooting anyone to jessup shooting no-one, while having called the fact that Vehicle said he'd prefer jessup shooting no-one to jessup shooting kthx "rationally discussing what is and is not pro-town moves".

You've been constantly implying that jessup having control of the daykill is a disaster because of your opinion on jessup as a player. But you never addressed the fact that you're relying on that same player to do what you want and shoot kthx, which they refused to do, even though Exalt called you out on this point.

[Voth]

I've maybe never played a game of forum mafia with an actual doctor. Where I'm from they're doctor/roleblockers in the beginner/standard setups and they usually have a 1/3 - 2/3 chance of appearing. In any setup with two out of a cop, a vig and a doctor, mafia will almost certainly have a roleblocker, which is for all intents and purposes the same as jessup being the nightkill target (if they can't act ever again).
Are you seriously suggesting that it's normal and expected on TW for a cop+vig to be able to just claim D1 and assume that they'll be covered by a doctor and scum won't be able to do anything about it? I don't buy that at all.

There's nobody who didn't endorse this plan except for Vehicle. Vehicle said he'd prefer that jessup never shoot. You're going after people for saying that they'd prefer jessup shooting anyone to jessup shooting no-one, while having called the fact that Vehicle said he'd prefer jessup shooting no-one to jessup shooting kthx "rationally discussing what is and is not pro-town moves".

You've been constantly implying that jessup having control of the daykill is a disaster because of your opinion on jessup as a player. But you never addressed the fact that you're relying on that same player to do what you want and shoot kthx, which they refused to do, even though Exalt called you out on this point.

I cannot remember a time in a decade and a half or more of TW mafia, where I have played a game where there was no town protective role (doctor, bodyguard, or some combination). Perhaps this is a source of our disagreement, but not sure.

Sure, Exalt endorsed that plan, but he also endorsed Jessup shooting wildly at whoever. And it's not about Jessup as a player. Sure, if I had my pick of someone to kill a random person D1, it wouldn't be Jessup, but I wouldn't want ANYONE, including myself, to start shooting people wildly on D1. We just don't have enough to go off to start shooting random people when there is an alleged confirmed scum result.

[Halp]

Final vote count in about 30 minutes

voting locked in about 45 minutes

phase change in about 1 hr

[Jessup]

what is current votecount lol ? kthx plezzz reveal

[Jessup]

[1]Willby - the_paul

[5]Kthx - Jessup, sdrawcab, OverthinkingIt, Kassius, Vehicle

[1]Sdrawkcab - PartyFalcon,

[4]Vehicle - Exalt, scarlet, kthx, Beast

[4]Scarlet

- Voth, Poopcat, WillBy, M_Leonhard

Not voting: Zeebu

Based off scarlets assessment i havent gone thru the 1000 pages

[Voth]

Vehicle floated off of Scarlet? That's not kosher.

Normally that would make me flip to Vehicle, but that would cause a tie and a no lynch, and I can't let a NL happen. Fuck. What the fuck.

[Voth]

Did Paul really just drop in to write multi-paragraph posts to Jessup only and keep his vote on Willby? I know it's Memorial Day weekend, but come on man, is your game just keeping us guessing?

[Jessup]

I dunno why kthx won't reveal. Vehicle said he did it cause kthx was voting him for self preservation so it was tit for tat

[kthx]

Fine.

Unvote: vehicle
Vote: scarlet

This entire phase was fucked either way.

[Jessup]

could scarlet really be scum with all that text lol I somehow doubt it. Vehicle seems safely town unless kthx flips town then reassess some. Hopefully some power roles can sort this out tonight