Election Thread #1 -real version (Let's see how long we can stay on topic)

[Verthanthi]

CNN is showing Kerry leading in MI, Vyk, though they seem slow in updating for me. Regardless, it's a slim lead and only at 36%

[Vykromond]

The clever kids were killing me, and my Internet connection is lagging. I'm almost overloaded trying to update this thread as it is. You can send me an AOL instant message at "a room in flames"

[Jerome Scuggs]

The clever kids were killing me, and my Internet connection is lagging. I'm almost overloaded trying to update this thread as it is. You can send me an AOL instant message at "a room in flames"

yahoo, drudge are both laggy for me. i'm tryin'

[Vykromond]

The BBC is still reporting an old Bush lead in Michigan, but that's really off. CNN and ABC both have Kerry up 4-5 points with about 30% of precincts reporting. Michigan is an important state for Kerry to win if he doesn't get Florida.

[Jerome Scuggs]

if bush wins FL and OH as projected, he needs one state to have the amount to get a legitimate amount

[Verthanthi]

I'd say it might be important regardless, but seeing as bush will take florida tonight (though I agree, litigation is likely so we'll see what it is in january if kerry doesn't take it regardless)

[Vykromond]

Missouri definitely went for Bush, but weirdly enough it didn't go for very much: with 54% reporting, the split was only 8 points in a state where Bush campaigned very, very heavily without much response from the Kerry camp during the months leading up to the election. The St. Louis Cty vs. rest-of-rural-state effect I talked about earlier in the thread has borne itself out.

[Vykromond]

Hawaii hasn't voted yet, and it may or may not have any effect, but one of the weird effects in the polls was its eleventh-hour switch from a Kerry lead to a slim Bush lead. Hawaii has traditionally voted very Democratic, and this switch was interpreted as an ill omen for Kerry at the time. Will Hawaii go for Bush, or will it be an overblown prepoll scare like the ones in Pennsylvania and New Jersey?

[Vykromond]

IMPORTANT NEW HAMPSHIRE UPDATE FOR IMPORTANT NEW HAMPSHIRE-LOVING PEOPLE:

Kerry (Dem) 215096 50%
Bush (Rep)* 206934 49%
Nader (Ind) 2887 1%


% of precincts reporting: 68

Still a ridiculously slim margin. Hooray for non-conformist New England states!

[Vykromond]

EDIT: I said Hawaii, but I meant Florida has Bush ahead by 300,000 with 96% of precincts reporting. You'll hear the networks talking about this pretty soon if they aren't already.

The popular vote has Bush leading by 2 million, just as he has been since the beginning.

[Vykromond]

Of the four mid-Midwestern swing states I talked about earlier, Kerry is leading in three, but Bush has a pretty significant lead in Wisconsin with 31% of precincts reporting:

Bush (Rep)* 476722 53%
Kerry (Dem) 416450 46%
Nader (Ind) 5196 1%


% of precincts reporting: 31

(statistic from ABC)



As for Ohio, Bush is holding a 120,000-man lead with 60% of precincts reporting.

[Verthanthi]

With only 3% of precincts left, Bush by 330,000 in florida

[Vykromond]

I've stopped being physically capable of taking in information from the headphones wrapped around my ears, but I heard an interesting little fact over NPR just now that I'd like to share with you all.

Election 2004 has seen an interesting change in what is called the "education gap;" that is, a largely Democratic trend among voters of lower education and the opposite among voters of higher education. In this election, voters of lower education have actually been tending towards Bush (that is, Republican), which has thrown a wrench into the general "education gap" idea. Why? The obvious answer is psychological: lower-education voters feel that Bush "speaks to them" more, and is a more down-to-earth personality. But this is almost condescension. If the Democratic party really offered an attractive proposition to lower-education, often lower-class voters- as, given its trend to put the tax burden on the higher echelons of income and to give greater government-sponsored benefits to the lower class, it should- why would these voters go Republican just because of a flippant quasi-character judgment? There's got to be something else at play here, even if it's a clever Republican political maneouvre to play up said character judgment.

[Fit of Rage]

Anyone care to tell me why Yahoo! is showing more overall votes than CNN? Is Yahoo! just anxious to post more "up to the moment" results?

[Fit of Rage]

With only 3% of precincts left, Bush by 330,000 in florida

God damnit.