Mafia: What a time to be alive!

[the_paul]

I notice that in your math you didn?t factor in the all too common panic role claim when someone has votes on them. I get your logic and I appreciate the thought and effort that you put into your post, I just generally and fundamentally disagree (unless someone is a shithead or inactive). I?ve just seen too many people panic when they have votes on them and roleclaim cop or something and basically end the game for us day 1.

I?m not really asking anyone to follow my lead, I?m just explaining the reasoning behind my votes, unless we need to get rid of a lurker and go from there.

That was a good post through Exalt, thanks for the explanation.

[Exalt]

I'm leaving my vote on midoent because I don't want to see anyone get lynched today. Basic math will tell you the odds of a day 1 lynch being town are greater than the shot in the dark getting anyone anti-town. Going off the math, unless somebody does something stupid or remains inactive, I'll be pushing for a tie and no day 1 lynch. Hopefully our power roles make this worthwhile.

I haven't played a mafia game on here for years, so if I've ever played with Exalt I don't remember. A day 1 list is about as scummy as it gets, but in his defense he did say it was a worthless list. Interesting how quickly Will backed Exalt based off a meaningless list (unless I'm misreading his post, the wording on it is confusing to me). Going to be something to keep an eye on if they continue this. I have no idea who ixt is, but yeah trying to drum up a townie alliance on day 1 screams scummy as well.

In before this post makes me scum.

I don't find your reasoning scummy, but I disagree with it in terms of the Day 1 No Lynch idea. It's fundamentally the wrong way to play imo for a variety of reasons. I already posted previously about my some of them, but since you used basic math as yours, I will show you how your math is wrong.

Let's pretend its a 9 person game with 7 town, 2 scum. Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but mislynch someone everyday after. Let's also assume scum NK successfully each night.

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, 2 scum + No Lynch = 0% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum (8 players left, divided by 2 scum = 25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum (6 players left, divided by 2 scum = 33% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 33%.

Now let's say town lynch Day 1 instead:

Day 1: 7 town, 2 scum (9 players left, divided by 2 scum = 22% chance of hitting scum)
Day 2: 5 town, 2 scum (7 players left, divided by 2 scum = 28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum (5 players left, divided by 2 scum = 40% chance of hitting scum)
Day 4: There is no Day 4, because scum win when town mislynches Day 3.

The highest percentage of hitting scum before game over is 40%.


As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone Day 1.

Other reasons why No Lynching is always bad outside of a Mislynch & Lose scenario:

1. Lynching can kill scum. Scum kills do not kill scum. More lynching = more scum deaths. Not lynching = less scum deaths.

2. If you don't lynch someone Day 1, you cannot analyze the wagons Day 2. Wagons/Lynches and where people vote during a lynch give information necessary to scum hunting. No Lynches give zero information in that regard while giving scum a free kill at night. You essentially lose a townie for zero gain.

3. The only reason I can think of for anyone to want a Day 1 No Lynch, aside from their faulty math, is because they generally think something like "the Cop will eventually save us, and the game doesn't even start until like Day 3 when they find a guilty." Sure, that may happen, but you're placing blind trust on a random person who may or may not be good at being the Cop. Also, what if that Cop gets NK'd immediately Night 1 while you No Lynched and placed the entire game on the hopes that they save the town instead? Also, even with a mislynch, one less player for the Cop to potentially investigate means a higher % chance for them to correctly investigate scum.

4. Generally speaking, night play always favors scum. They always get to night kill, and they usually have great roles such as roleblocker, godfather, etc that help keep them safe from town night actions. Town also tends to have power roles that can hurt town, such as a dumb vigilante that kills only townies, insane/skitzo cops giving false positives, busdrivers that screw up results, millers, paranoid gun owners killing town PRs, etc. Scum almost never have PRs with drawbacks like that.

5. All town night actions are essentially completely blind, no different from Day 1 lynches except that there's no actual dialogue to help other townies make good decisions or reign in dumb townies from making bad ones.

6. Without a Day 1 lynch giving any information, and assuming a Town PR like the Cop doesn't claim, the Day 2 lynch after a Day 1 No Lynch is just as random and blind as a Day 1 lynch, with near zero differences except one less townie and fewer allowed mislynches before game over.

7. A Day 1 mislynch at the very least allows town to move past specific reads they had from the start of the game, because they are proven right or wrong based on what their Day 1 lynch flips. It allows the game to move past the initial phase of the game. A Day 1 No Lynch just makes town repeat the exact same arguments and exact same reads they had on Day 1 with little to no change, meaning the Day 2 lynch will likely be the same person who would've otherwise been lynched Day 1.

I'm sure I can think of more reasons, but that's my stance on the issue, and it's pretty strong. I'll always say a Day 1 No Lynch is a terrible move for town to make in nearly every situation. There is a time and a place for No Lynches, but it's almost never on Day 1.

[the_paul]

I'm leaving my vote on midoent because I don't want to see anyone get lynched today. Basic math will tell you the odds of a day 1 lynch being town are greater than the shot in the dark getting anyone anti-town. Going off the math, unless somebody does something stupid or remains inactive, I'll be pushing for a tie and no day 1 lynch. Hopefully our power roles make this worthwhile.

I haven't played a mafia game on here for years, so if I've ever played with Exalt I don't remember. A day 1 list is about as scummy as it gets, but in his defense he did say it was a worthless list. Interesting how quickly Will backed Exalt based off a meaningless list (unless I'm misreading his post, the wording on it is confusing to me). Going to be something to keep an eye on if they continue this. I have no idea who ixt is, but yeah trying to drum up a townie alliance on day 1 screams scummy as well.

In before this post makes me scum.

[WillBy]

Meh, Ixt was townie last mafia game and he played very similarly to how he is playing now. Kinda trying to sacrifice himself and very emotional. Leaning towards town for him even tho I dont like the play style.

I agree with Exalt. Leaning towards missa and rodney for now really. We have at least 24 hours still which seems fine by me.

2 data points is not enough to extrapolate based on behavior.

[Soilderz]

Meh, Ixt was townie last mafia game and he played very similarly to how he is playing now. Kinda trying to sacrifice himself and very emotional. Leaning towards town for him even tho I dont like the play style.

I agree with Exalt. Leaning towards missa and rodney for now really. We have at least 24 hours still which seems fine by me.

[WillBy]

well if im out willby and voth will look EPICLY like scum hahaha up to village if they want my x-shot ability or not

Vanilla townie claim with an x-shot means you're not a vanilla townie.

And a refusal to hard claim anything doesn't do anyone any good. If you are town, the you've painted a target on your back by saying you have an ability. You also havent given us any reason to believe your claim: no number of shots, no specific ability, nothing to go off. Cap that off with the worst defense: "you're going to regret this" and I'm feeling pretty confident in my vote

[ixt]

if either of u r village dont say i didnt warn u. i have less a care for this game so leaving it at that

[ixt]

well if im out willby and voth will look EPICLY like scum hahaha up to village if they want my x-shot ability or not

[midoent]

... honestly I do not feel strongly about voting anyone. Going to use the same reasoning used on me being inactive.. [b]unvote willby[\b]? vote the_paul hey buddy!

[WillBy]

Those are good points. At this point it's too hard to tell if he is scum or town. I think willby should speak up then maybe i'll unvote him.

NOTE: I still gotta finish reading the new posts

Speak up? About what? You and ixt AIMing for 15 straight post? The votes on me are field, troll vote; Rodney, rando vote; and you retaliation. Missa also forgot to bold her vote on me, that one is probably a bit suspect.

Votes on you are tp saying hi and myself before youd posted. No accusations there.

Only sort-of leads we've got right now ixt trying to set up a townie alliance before we have anything confirmed (scum cementing themselves early?) and I think Exalt is town but hes saying seems to be earning my trust (gotta look out for good plays from good players. Missed vsing you exalt). Not that I dont appreciate it, Exalt

Gonna take the step and unvote midoent, vote ixt

[midoent]

So you think Willby is scum or town? If scum, why? If not, why are you not trying to find scum instead? The goal of the game is to lynch scum, not town, so which one do you think Willby is? He'd still be the vote leader regardless of your vote, so you have no excuses about saving yourself.

Those are good points. At this point it's too hard to tell if he is scum or town. I think willby should speak up then maybe i'll unvote him.

NOTE: I still gotta finish reading the new posts

[ixt]

wait wtf mido is on there twice as well...request recount of hostir plz lmao.

[ixt]

uh fis...biet is on there twice. and seems to me some of the votes are very scattered...under suspicion of those who have yet to say more

[fiS]

Current Vote Count:

WillBy - 3 (field, Rodney, midoent)

midoent - 2 (WillBy, the_paul)
Rodney - 2 (Soilderz, Zeebu)
Exalt - 1 (ixt)

Missa - 1 (Exalt)

field - 1 (BIET)
ixt - 1 (Voth)

Missing votes from:
Missa, Undercut

Info:
This phase is likely to last throughout the weekend. Hope you all are fine with that o/

uh fis...biet is on there twice. and seems to me some of the votes are very scattered...under suspicion of those who have yet to say more

Yeah, thanks, I also spotted another mistake. It should be fixed now.

[BIET]

Hey all, I?ve got no time this weekend and can?t get much from whats said. I?ll put a placeholder vote for now, back monday. VOTE: field