Forum Mafia - Shawshank Redemption - Salvation lies within

[WillBy]

I already claimed my role. Question that all you want. But based on your response right there, it's clear you havent been reading thread.

[Kassius]

Exalt please explain to me how kassius would know that jessup was jailed AND that there is a cop? Please clear things up.

There is definitely a way I know this, because I do

So some deductive reasoning here:

Mafia jailed Jessup, Mafia tried to kill someone else

For this to happen, then Town have got a Blocker/Jailkeeper themselves, or a bus driver, who has blocked the secondary kill on an unknown third person directly, or bused Paul into the kill. This seems highly unlikely.

Town jailed Jessup, Mafia took the bait and went for the kill N1 on the claimed Doctor

It makes perfect sense to Jail a claimed doctor on D1 when the doctor had no-one else to protect. It also makes perfect sense that people with powers would then watch Jessup to see what happens, and then try to confirm PRs amongst each other. I don't think this kill would be the brightest move for Mafia to have made, though. Anyone who's anyone on Town would have been watching Jessup last night like a hawk.

Town OR Mafia jailed Jessup, Mafia killed the_Paul

This scenario hasn't been mentioned yet, but is perfectly valid. Mafia wouldn't have known the_Paul to be a third party on N1 (can anyone correct me here if they might have some D1 investigative role?)

[scarlet]

I have reason to believe multiple people might have vote modifiers, regardless of alignment.

Would be great if the moderator could actually post the votecount regularly (or ever) then.

I am voteless, which isnt a normal thing for scum.

That's not really what you claimed.

[scarlet]

Guess I'll post missing parts now and finish it live since it touches on what kassius mentioned

How does being useless make you a townie?
I agree hes playing his normal useless self, but he does this either way, town or scum.
We dont have to lynch him today, but I think we will have to get around to it eventually...

How does being useless make you a scum?
Anyway, the earlier you (probably mis)lynch a useless player generally the better because people mostly have stronger reads or role results of some kind on later days.

I have a problem with you riding his ass out the gate on D2. Is this the lynch you're happy to lock the day into, don't talk don't think just lynch anti-town?
I don't disagree that I want him dead. If I had a daykill that could only hit beast, I'd use it 100 times out of 100 here.

Also I can't believe you'd claim to have a pure RNG role which has a no-advantage vote trade night power, then turn around and say there'd be no mafia jailkeeper because 'it's not useful'.

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I don't think scarlet was really being considered by the end of the phase yesterday. It was really Beast, Jessup or Sherlock if I'm remembering correctly and Jessup saved herself at the last minute by claiming doctor.

Beast and I were tied at 4 votes at one point, and we weren't even crossed (I was on beast, beast wasn't on me). The_paul claimed he wasn't intending on following through with his vote. I don't know if you (vehicle) had intended to move your vote off of my by that stage. Field was on me from the start of the game, and hasn't come back to change his vote. m_leonhard hasn't posted since page 10 (and I think he's scum).

And can someone remind me why we think Beast is scum? Just because he's playing like his usual useless self?

The way he jumped on the bait willby wagon at the start of D1 was shady as fuck, and he's been useless since then so he hasn't had the chance to earn it back.

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I know Jessup was locked up, last night. It wasn't me that did the locking up, though.
...
Or. She just protected herself

It's hard for me to read this as anything other than 'I tried to kill jessup and failed because they were protected'.
Doctors generally can't self target as far as I am aware.

Posts like:

I meant town jailed Jessup. Sorry, something lost in translation here?

Is there a world where mafia jails Jessup last night if Jessup is mafia?

Read to me like you're fairly confident that you think jessup is scum. Is that correct,
Kassius do you think jessup is scum? Any particular reasons?

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Vote:WillBy
I gave him a pass D1, but that was for tactical reasons.

Gonna have to break this one down for me G.
I would say that willby's been playing a lot more suspect D2 than before. My strongest TR's D1 were the_paul and willby. I can very easily see a scenario where the_paul recruited willby and scum shot the_paul. Personally, I was anticipating some sort of claim with how the_paul was playing D1.

kthx "Actions occur in this order: Killing roles > Recruiting roles"
Am I correct in assuming that whether or not a player is killed in a night, their action will still go through even if

[scarlet]

post this missing parts*

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kthx "Actions occur in this order: Killing roles > Recruiting roles"
Am I correct in assuming that whether or not a player is killed in a night, their action will still go through even if the player is dead, e.g. if the_paul was killed N1 and he targeted a valid recruit target, would they be recruited?

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Exalt What about D1 willby made you think he's scum?
Also, why are you reading so much into the flavor of the_paul's death in a game which is supposed to be set up to be without (mechanically relevant) flavor?

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WillBy Neither of the players you've gone after so far today (beast, exalt) you've actually called scum. You're refusing to post a reads list. It really feels to me like you've got no investment in finding scum.
Since I fully anticipate you bouncing back to beast in a moment without posting any reads:
Why is beast a better lynch than jessup, field, m_leonhard, or halp?

[Kassius]

scarlet I'd quote back your question in my answer, but I have no idea how to deal with those horizontal rules, and the quoted text just goes missing altogether.

I typed out a whole answer, but now I've just thought of another scenario whilst doing so. Jessup could still be scum, was elected to make the kill last night, but the townie jailkeeper stopped her (and the_paul killing himself during recruitment by the by). But with the heat on Jessup, I can't see this sticking. But it's still conceivable.

My original point is that town have a jailkeeper, as mafia would not have jailed Jessup in this situation. I leant towards Jessup being Town.

I think I best stop typing 'analysis' posts at this point I'm getting muddled up thinking through the connotations, maybe someone smarter can work it out from the below :

The facts that I know :

Jessup was jailed last night.
There is a cop in play.

[Exalt]

I would say that willby's been playing a lot more suspect D2 than before. My strongest TR's D1 were the_paul and willby. I can very easily see a scenario where the_paul recruited willby and scum shot the_paul. Personally, I was anticipating some sort of claim with how the_paul was playing D1.

kthx "Actions occur in this order: Killing roles > Recruiting roles"
Am I correct in assuming that whether or not a player is killed in a night, their action will still go through even if

I'm pretty sure that Paul died due to trying to cult mafia. I've played cult now on both this site and MU, and the two variations I've seen are either cult dies when they try to recruit mafia (here), or mafia die when cult try to recruit them (MU). The MU game had 72 players in it though, so it made sense to not kill cult from one bad read. This one had 15. It's almost certainly a fact that Paul would die if he tried to recruit scum, as well as the near-certainty that he was bulletproof. I've never seen any game with the cult recruiter not be BP, and what scum uses strongman on N1? It's common sense in my view how Paul died. Even the kill flavor hints pretty heavily at it.

So yeah, there was no scum NK for some reason. I think it's more than likely that scum shot Jessup, because why wouldn't they? We lynched the watcher right after Jessup claimed, which means the odds of scum thinking they'd get caught like last game was extremely low. Thing is, Kassius comes out with knowledge that he would not have if scum.This too is common sense imo. If kassius was scum and calling it, how would he know it was a jailkeeper that saved Jessup, let alone if a cop visited? Jessup would know if she was jailkept last night, so could easily call out kassius if he lied, and the cop, assuming there is one, would know that Kassius was lying as well if they visited someone else. There's no reason at all for Kassius to have said all of that if he was scum. He'd literally just be outting himself for little reward.

[scarlet]

But with the heat on Jessup, I can't see this sticking. But it's still conceivable.

If jessup is seen visiting a corpse, or jessup is seen not making an attempt to visit someone, they're instantly 1000x more suspicious. Not that I think it's what happened, but I don't see any problem with this scenario from a motive perspective

[WillBy]

What I'm saying with being voteless is- this is mod confirmable. When we get a vote count, my vote (on exalt) will not be counted. I was being facetious earlier in the phase when I posted an unbolded vote on leo, and in my next post said i dont make dumb mistakes like typos.

being voteless makes me look townie because:
1. My roleclaim offers the only justification for the votelessness at the moment. If someone else wants to claim credit be my guest, but you'll look quite suspicious when I flip green.
2. my role wouldnt make too much sense if I were scum. While this is a lot of wifom, I would have played it differently as mafia. The ability to remove votes is kind busted in the hands of scum. I'd hold onto it later as scum, while as town I use it asap to clear things up.

I'll let kthx clear it up, but conventionally (here) paul would've been dead before he could recruit, if mafia killed him.

[Exalt]

What I'm saying with being voteless is- this is mod confirmable. When we get a vote count, my vote (on exalt) will not be counted. I was being facetious earlier in the phase when I posted an unbolded vote on leo, and in my next post said i dont make dumb mistakes like typos.

being voteless makes me look townie because:
1. My roleclaim offers the only justification for the votelessness at the moment. If someone else wants to claim credit be my guest, but you'll look quite suspicious when I flip green.
2. my role wouldnt make too much sense if I were scum. While this is a lot of wifom, I would have played it differently as mafia. The ability to remove votes is kind busted in the hands of scum. I'd hold onto it later as scum, while as town I use it asap to clear things up.

I'll let kthx clear it up, but conventionally (here) paul would've been dead before he could recruit, if mafia killed him.

No, it doesn't, because again, I have a strong reason to believe multiple people in this game have voting modifiers of some kind, possibly ones that could trade the ability to vote the following day with the ability to do something else. I'm not going to clear you based off of a single modifier, which can't be verified anyway.

[Exalt]

WillBy + Scarlet scum team I'm thinking. I wonder how many scum have this game though with cult in it too.

[Exalt]

4 man scum team with a cult on the side seems unbalanced. Maybe it's just a 3 man team, but they're really powerful.

[WillBy]

WillBy Neither of the players you've gone after so far today (beast, exalt) you've actually called scum. You're refusing to post a reads list. It really feels to me like you've got no investment in finding scum.
Since I fully anticipate you bouncing back to beast in a moment without posting any reads:
Why is beast a better lynch than jessup, field, m_leonhard, or halp?

Regarding calling beast scum, here's my first post this phase:

I loled.

So where were we last phase? We almost lynched jessup, who claims to be doctor, and instead we lyched sherlock, who was the watcher? And these two were last minute changes instead of beast or scarlet. There was a lot of hopping around before phase change, I dont fault Voth for moving his vote off jessup though i agree with what Halp mentioned, it looked a bit contrived. Though the same thing could be said about jessup and sherlock, and there doesnt seem to have been anything there.

I still think beast is scum, though I'm open to other votes with any reasoning.

Also, hi zeebu, me too.

that's all I've said about beast really.

I dont think exalt is scum. He was a D1 town read. I actually thought he was jailkeeper.

As far as no interest in scum hunting, I saw a weird post from kassius and went poking around. And now we're here.

Jessup claimed doc. And with the jailing drama, I dont think she is a good lynch atm.
field is afk (and an old friend of mine)
Leo is a good lynch, I suggested we lynch him this morning. I would be voting him if I could.
Halp is afk (and an old friend of mine). This is normal town behavior for him. He is active when hes scum.

I mention that field and Halp are friends because there are prebiases there. However, I will say that for both of them, their skill peaks are through the roof.

[scarlet]

as well as the near-certainty that he was bulletproof. I've never seen any game with the cult recruiter not be BP, and what scum uses strongman on N1? It's common sense in my view how Paul died.

I've never seen a game where the cult leader was BP. The host of this game was shot as a cult leader in the last game, and the inquisitor was shot by the same vig.

There are a lot of killing factions that have a motive to shoot jessup, so the idea that someone shot jessup and was blocked seems perfectly reasonable.
"There's a cop in this game" costs nothing to say. That kassius couldn't be straight between saying jessup was jailed or protected implies to me that they know this because they tried to kill them. It's possible they were just getting various hypotheticals mixed together in their head, but it's still not nothing. I agree that it's unlikely that scum!kassius would say this; I'm coming at this from the angle of sk!kassius. I'm not pursuing it too hard because that implies that he's not mafscum, and it's pretty unconfirmed. Something to revisit if there are two kills N2.

There's something I feel like a lot of us have assumed but I'd like to make explicit:

Does everyone agree that it's extremely unlikely that whoever killed the_paul (including the_pau via recruitmentl) was a vig/townsided?

[kthx]

Would be great if the moderator could actually post the votecount regularly (or ever) then.

it's not my job to babysit you, if you want a vote count before I post a phase change countdown then do it yourself. Don't bring me up again over trivial bullshit.